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View Full Version : Kelly Draft Potential This Year Vs. Next $



Zagdawg
04-12-2013, 02:59 PM
Looking at DraftExpress for this year -- there are 11 of the first 21 picks as Centers for the draft---

Kelly comes in as the 6th center forecast to be picked at #14

Next year they are showing qty 3 centers taken in top 21 picks (3 freshman centers).

The question that I have -- can Kelly become a top 10 pick if he were to wait a year?

If he goes this year and gets picked at #14 or 15 his first 3 years NBA salary would be $4.9 or $4.6 million (total). If he slips to 19/20 he is looking at $3.8 or $3.6.

If he were to wait a year and get into the top 7-8 of the draft his first 3 years salary would be $7.5 or $6.9 ---or approx 35% more by waiting a year and getting into the top 10 of the draft.

The question is -- can Kelly get into the top 10 with the preseason hype -- work on defense and rebounding and additional minutes on the floor? Get the Zag marketing machine going.

His personality -- and work ethic would be a great story to have all year long for college basketball.

Hoopaholic
04-12-2013, 03:06 PM
If he is getting discussion of lottery he should go..I just don't think those discussions are occurring....but if he stays I can see top ten pick next year and a top center pick if he works on his back to basket physical play

Mojo13
04-12-2013, 03:07 PM
No.
He will drop 10-15 slots if he waits next to year. Next year's draft is so, so much better than this year's. NBA GMs have said that at least 7 kids in highschool would go #1 overall if they were in this years draft.

The 2013 draft could be the weakest in the last decade. The 2014 will arguably be the best.

You hear quips that some NBA GMs dont even want their picks this year. Gauranteed money for guys who wont stick in the league.

Zagdawg
04-12-2013, 03:43 PM
Looking at his last 5 games this year-- his average minutes increased and we saw the improvements with his stats.

Overall year 26.4 mins 17.8 pts and 7.3 boards
Last 5 games 30 mins 18.2 and 10 boards.

I can see him with a double double average next year -- 20 and 10 if he were to play 30 mins a game.

Even with the influx of talent -- they still need to learn to play at the college level--and on a team like Kentucky that has like 7 really good incoming players-- there is still only one basketball.

A final 4 run.....a top 10 pick and then live the good life.

Plus you know he wants to go to Hawaii with the team to enjoy some sun and surf :)

realtydog
04-12-2013, 03:54 PM
and if its repeated enough it becomes fact---this years draft is lacking those top 5 knockouts, that next years draft will have(so they say)---this years draft is just as good as next years draft after pick #5

CaliforniaZaggin'
04-12-2013, 05:29 PM
Other than at the very top, it's darn near impossible to predict the quality of a draft class more than a few months in advance.

CB4
04-12-2013, 06:18 PM
Kelly had a steller year. He needs to capitalize on it. Just because he is a year older next season doesn't mean he will automatically put up the same numbers. The only guarantee here is the one he will get that is attached to a three year contract exceeding $3M.

Oregonzagnut
04-12-2013, 07:10 PM
If he goes this year and gets picked at #14 or 15 his first 3 years NBA salary would be $4.9 or $4.6 million (total). If he slips to 19/20 he is looking at $3.8 or $3.6.

If he were to wait a year and get into the top 7-8 of the draft his first 3 years salary would be $7.5 or $6.9 ---or approx 35% more by waiting a year and getting into the top 10 of the draft.

What a wonderful problem to have. Poor guy.

combatcorpsmangulaw
04-14-2013, 08:51 AM
Kelly had a steller year. He needs to capitalize on it. Just because he is a year older next season doesn't mean he will automatically put up the same numbers. The only guarantee here is the one he will get that is attached to a three year contract exceeding $3M.

KO is gone -- sentimentality based "I wish he would stay another year" isn't going to trump: "There is a $3 million dollar payday waiting..."

KO has been a credit to the Zags on and off the court. Go get paid Kelly, you've earned it.

Zag Man
04-14-2013, 09:27 AM
KO is gone -- sentimentality based "I wish he would stay another year" isn't going to trump: "There is a $3 million dollar payday waiting..."

KO has been a credit to the Zags on and off the court. Go get paid Kelly, you've earned it.

Kelly has been a credit to the Gonzaga University program, especially this year. His actions have been exemplary and, even though I would love to see him play another year with the Zags, I believe he should try his luck in the NBA. He already has his degree and I think he's given more to the basketball program than anyone should expect from a young man.

Best of luck, Kelly, in your future endeavors! There are many Gonzaga fans that will be cheering with every success that you have in your ongoing basketball career.

Marcus
04-14-2013, 10:36 AM
KO is gone -- sentimentality based "I wish he would stay another year" isn't going to trump: "There is a $3 million dollar payday waiting..."

KO has been a credit to the Zags on and off the court. Go get paid Kelly, you've earned it.

This.

What Kelly has achieved both academically and athletically is incredible. It speaks to his amazing work ethic and determination but also the dedication of the Gonzaga program from top to bottom. The coaching staff, the trainers, the teachers and the school community. Kelly's path is not the norm and is something I feel could not be duplicated at most of the factory schools. Schools where if your not working out in their plans your moving on. This kind of success is what makes Gonzaga special and why I love this team.

DixieZag
04-14-2013, 07:47 PM
As I have said numerous times, it is so much more likely - SO much - that we would all be better off with discussing "where" he will go, not if.

I get that not from knowing anything about NBA ball - I find it unwatchable - but more from what he has directly said throughout the year. I don't know how many times I have heard him say, "my goal has always been to get to the NBA" - yes, they all have that goal but not as many say it so strongly, many say, "it is such a tough decision, I have it so good here, I am not going to even think about it till the time comes. . ."

But, Kelly has graduated, Kelly's mom worked for the Toronto NBA club - he knows the NBA game and likes it, his teamates said "enjoy your senior night Kelly" - just a lot of evidence.

I believe he will miss his teamates, but come mid-summer he could take them all to Hawaii on his debit card.

I am pretty sure I would go. And, I wasn't an accounting major.

All the best Kelly, you (unlike some on other teams) have truly earned it.

pbriz
04-14-2013, 08:19 PM
No.
He will drop 10-15 slots if he waits next to year. Next year's draft is so, so much better than this year's. NBA GMs have said that at least 7 kids in highschool would go #1 overall if they were in this years draft.

The 2013 draft could be the weakest in the last decade. The 2014 will arguably be the best.

You hear quips that some NBA GMs dont even want their picks this year. Gauranteed money for guys who wont stick in the league.

After watching Julius Randle play in the Jordan Brand Classic I am a believer. The guy is an absolute monster on both sides of the court.

Wiggins and Parker are also incredibly talented. UW also got a good one in their guard. Clutch player.

jim77
04-14-2013, 08:54 PM
Kelly O could easily be a top 10 next year. I think staying an extra year to make a few more bucks doesn't make any sense. If the guy's financial goals outweigh his desire to expereince more college basketball...he'll leave...if not, he'll stay. The kid has set himself up for success either way.....hard work and brains do that. He should be at peace either way because either decision will bring benefits....good choices are good. He is in a position to be at peace with either decision as he should be.

cjm720
04-15-2013, 11:49 AM
I believe KO is the last of the top 5 Wooden Nominees to not declare...

rennis
04-15-2013, 12:10 PM
I believe KO is the last of the top 5 Wooden Nominees to not declare...

I think you're right. He's dragging it out so he can check this board for solid entertainment value.

KStyles
04-15-2013, 12:23 PM
I believe KO is the last of the top 5 Wooden Nominees to not declare...

Last I heard, McDermott is still up in the air as well.

cjm720
04-15-2013, 12:25 PM
oh good call...thought he was a senior.

DixieZag
04-15-2013, 01:08 PM
I believe KO is the last of the top 5 Wooden Nominees to not declare...

That is good information to bring to the board.

I think it is probably more indicative of the type of person he is, responsibly checking out all the criteria, talking to more people, giving it more thought now that the season is over. . . .

Just a thought.

ZagNative
04-16-2013, 09:09 AM
Updated Chad Ford mock draft (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9177182/2013-nba-draft-nerlens-noel-no-1-ranking-top-30-nba-draft-prospects): The number's unchanged, but I hadn't seen the comment before about the possibility of performing well against other bigs moving him into the top ten.
16 - Kelly Olynyk
SCHOOL: Gonzaga
Class: Jr.
HT/WT: 7-0, 238
POS: C
17.5 PPG
7.2 RPG
65 FG%

We continue to wait for Olynyk to officially declare for the 2013 NBA draft. Scouts are clearly interested in Olynyk's unusual game and are eager to get him into workouts. "If he can outplay the other bigs in his draft range, I think he'll move into the top 10," one scout said. "His game this year suggested that, but the lack of competition gave us pause. There's a lot there to like."
I don't see how he won't go this year, especially if he thinks there's a chance he could move himself into a top ten pick.

MDABE80
04-16-2013, 09:41 AM
Late first rounder............no lotto. Problem is what the scout is saying is that if he goes and stubs his toe playing against other high end bigs the scout believe in, his draft status drops....probably by quite a bit. Once he goes "draft" there's no turning back....and I think it's a chancey type thing for Kelly.
On the other hand, if he stays...he's already being touted as a 1st team AA repeater and a Wooden Candidate. How could this hurt him?

Stay and develop your brand (big kid, Canadian, 1st Canadian as a two time AA, long hair.....perhaps cutting it for wigs, etc)..............or leave and take a big chance on the future. Once he's gone, he's gone and there is no returning........ I'm still mixed on his playing and him staying.
I think he could benefit by further developing coordination , advancing his skill set, and his limited athleticism. Just my opinion.........

ID ZAGFAN
04-16-2013, 10:00 AM
http://www.rantsports.com/ncaa-basketball/2013/04/16/gonzaga-anxiously-awaits-decision-from-kelly-olynyk/

Not much new here, but a great pic of Kelly. Posted 30 minutes ago.

ZaGranny

ID ZAGFAN
04-16-2013, 10:07 AM
Read from bottom up.

Slipper Still Fits ‏@slipperstillfit 27m
Kelly can 'stay quiet' and not decide until April 28th which is the NBA's deadline. He does not have to do anything today.
Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
Slipper Still Fits ‏@slipperstillfit 30m
As we've said, do not expect a decision today for KO. As @GoodmanCBS points out, today's 'deadline' is meaningless http://cbsprt.co/12ju62O
Expand
Slipper Still Fits ‏@slipperstillfit 44m
Just received word that Kelly Olynyk is...still deciding. Heard that it will be closer than many think - I still expect him to declare.


ZaGranny

jazzdelmar
04-16-2013, 10:37 AM
Last I heard, McDermott is still up in the air as well.

how could greg mcd leave his pops? makes no sense. once in a lifetime season awaits.

btw, i think kelly stays. just a hunch. and a wish.

sdzag
04-16-2013, 10:38 AM
He needs to go. Just like Austin Daye needed to go. With the NBA you always strike when the pan is hot. Cody Zeller dropped almost out of the lottery on some boards when he could have a top 3 pick last year. The extra year only gives you more time to be picked apart. Plus it's always good for a program to get guys early into the NBA for recruiting. Although Daye will never make an all star team he is still on an NBA roster getting pay checks. Best of luck to Kelly and I hope he blossoms in the NBA.

ID ZAGFAN
04-16-2013, 11:02 AM
http://www.slipperstillfits.com/2013/4/16/4231482/nba-draft-kelly-olynyk-can-decide-today-but-he-doesnt-have-to

By Zach Bell on Apr 16 2013, 11:43a

In a world full of ancient and meaningless rules, today's NCAA deadline to withdraw from the NBA Draft is about as meaningless as it gets.
.....
As it relates to Kelly Olynyk, it means nothing. He can stay quiet as he hasn't decided either way yet and then formally forego his senior year prior to the April 28th cut-off date as set by the NBA. Kelly can wait an additional 12 days, gather his thoughts, and make an educated decision. What would you expect from a guy that has already earned his degree and is working on his MBA?

As Goodman points out later in the story, the only true benefit of declaring before this deadline is that you can drop out of school faster which I don't think is a major desire for Kelly.

With all this being said, I have heard rumblings that Kelly is having a tough time deciding. It has been noted numerous times that Kelly is well-engrossed in the fiber of Gonzaga and that he simply loves the college life. With that said, he's completed his degree and is projected to be a late lottery pick my most experts. My gut tells me that he is gone but I would absolutely love to be proven wrong.

ZaGranny

Angelo Roncalli
04-16-2013, 11:09 AM
[url]With all this being said, I have heard rumblings that Kelly is having a tough time deciding. It has been noted numerous times that Kelly is well-engrossed in the fiber of Gonzaga and that he simply loves the college life. With that said, he's completed his degree and is projected to be a late lottery pick my most experts. My gut tells me that he is gone but I would absolutely love to be proven wrong.

This mirrors what I have heard. It is not a foregone conclusion.

DixieZag
04-16-2013, 11:31 AM
This mirrors what I have heard. It is not a foregone conclusion.

Somebody get him interested in the lead role in a play! He has already played a minor role in Shakespere - - get him interested in . . .oh who the hell cares, let him pick the play!

I wish the weather was better, GU seems so much bucolic when its not 50 degrees, 20mph wind and clouds rushing by 50 feet over his head.

JPtheBeasta
04-16-2013, 12:20 PM
This mirrors what I have heard. It is not a foregone conclusion.

You and ZaGranny have made my day. I really hope he feels that there is some unfinished business next March that he needs to take care of.

realtydog
04-16-2013, 12:39 PM
last night (4/15) Kelly and Angel Nunez were at Northpark (athletic club in north Spokane) going through shooting drills with adam Morrison and Adam's dad--the most telling move I saw was on a three point drill---Adam's dad had Angel shooting from spots behind the arc where college threes are taken and had Kelly working from orange spots on the floor at NBA range behind Angel's spots on the floor---some may not think that was telling, but each their own I guess

scott257
04-16-2013, 01:07 PM
Kelly is just such a good kid. I know there is a lot of consideration to be given to the risk both physically and financially if he were to come back for his senior season. I hope that with whatever he decides he is comfortable and has no regrets.

Malastein
04-16-2013, 01:09 PM
This mirrors what I have heard. It is not a foregone conclusion.

I do think he could use an extra year of development at the collegiate level, just focusing on dealing with double teams and getting stronger in the post. Another year of solid lifting, and Kelly will be an absolute beast down in the paint. I'd also like to see him move a bit more off the ball, but that's pretty much true of the entire team last season.

Money wise, I think he could become a much bigger star, and his endorsement value would skyrocket. I think he is still only just scratching the surface in the paint and learning to assertively dominant would propel his draft status.

sittingon50
04-16-2013, 01:18 PM
The thing is though, I don't think he's going to be a back to the basket player at the next level. Spending an inordinate amount of time at that at GU next year will not be incredibly productive for him going forward.

My opinion only.

webspinnre
04-16-2013, 01:29 PM
The thing is though, I don't think he's going to be a back to the basket player at the next level. Spending an inordinate amount of time at that at GU next year will not be incredibly productive for him going forward.

My opinion only.

This. Plus, as has been mentioned many times, next year's draft is one of the best drafts in recent years, and this year's is one of the worst. If his only goal is maximizing income, this year is the year to go (plus one extra year of NBA). Now, he's an intelligent young man, and may not be solely focused on the money, in which case there are many positive reasons to consider staying.

CDC84
04-16-2013, 01:34 PM
There's no rush. I think he might be waiting this thing out to see just how many college players bail early for this year's draft. People are bailing like crazy right now because they know it's a weak draft. If a significant amount of underclassmen who are projected to be first rounders in this draft decide to go that is going to weaken next year's draft some. Kelly, if he came back, wouldn't have to compete with those players. I know the 2014 high school class has several one and doners, but it's really only 6 or 7 guys. Randle, Wiggins, Gordon, etc. It's not 20 deep. It never is. I really doubt KO would drop 15-20 spots as some people think. He would drop, but not by that much.

bigblahla
04-16-2013, 01:46 PM
Why would he drop if he got better and was a serious national player of the year candidate from the get go?

He will still make millions and as an accountant will most likely keep it.

Can he get better as a future NBA player by playing another year in college? Yes!

He has room to improve on both defense and and offense.

Come back big guy you only travel this road once. :D

Just my opinion.

Go!! Zags!!!

madness
04-16-2013, 01:51 PM
Agree with CDC...also, for teams looking for a PF, he will be competing with guys like Noel, Len, and Zeller in this draft. Next year might actually be weaker in post players. It looks like only Cauley-Stein and Tarczewski in the lottery. McGarry would also be a possibility if he stays (which I think he should)

cjm720
04-16-2013, 01:56 PM
There's no rush. I think he might be waiting this thing out to see just how many college players bail early for this year's draft. People are bailing like crazy right now because they know it's a weak draft. If a significant amount of underclassmen who are projected to be first rounders in this draft decide to go that is going to weaken next year's draft some. Kelly, if he came back, wouldn't have to compete with those players. I know the 2014 high school class has several one and doners, but it's really only 6 or 7 guys. Randle, Wiggins, Gordon, etc. It's not 20 deep. It never is. I really doubt KO would drop 15-20 spots as some people think. He would drop, but not by that much.

Agree with everything here except the last sentence. You dont' think there's any way he could increase his position?

CDC84
04-16-2013, 02:26 PM
Agree with everything here except the last sentence. You dont' think there's any way he could increase his position?

I suppose it's possible. It partially depends on how much he improves in certain areas:

1) Needs to finish better around the rim with more authority
2) Needs to rebound better with his body and not be so reliant on his height.
3) Needs to defend better, one on one, in the paint.
4) Stills needs to get stronger, but not lose mobility.
5) Needs to lead his team deeper into the NCAA tourney.

The coaches probably have a whole list.

Plus, I don't care what anyone says....if he came back and somehow swept the POY awards, became a two time first team All American (rarely occurs these days), and led Gonzaga on a really deep NCAA tournament run, that's going to count for something. I know the NBA loves potential, but there is something to be said about proven production and improvement. Not that this would ever push him above a kid like Andrew Wiggins.

cjm720
04-16-2013, 02:29 PM
Thx for your post. Agree.

Mojo13
04-16-2013, 02:50 PM
Here are some guys who probably wish they didnt return to school and left when they were a lottery prospect (or higher prospect).

Jared Sullinger
Cody Zeller
Harrison Barnes
PJIII
Willie Warren
Chris Marcus

Here is a interesting SI artical on the topic:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/rob_dauster/06/27/Jared-Sullinger-Perry-Jones-draft/index.html

Mojo13
04-16-2013, 02:54 PM
If you a sure fire 1st round pick you should ALWAYS come out. 3 reasons.

1. If you regress then you lose money.
2. If you do well after you come out, you are 1 year closer to a non-rookie deal.
3. You are more likely to improve under full-time pro instruction than part-time college instruction.

This is something that bothers me a lot, why on earth do people assume that if you are a "project" you're better served taking another year? Andre Drummond improved so much more playing for an NBA team rather than beating up a 6'7" centers in Big East while at UConn.

The notion that going back to school is "responsible" is the most patriarchal bull crap.

Now, if you have a good chance of falling out of the first round, I agree that it makes sense to stay in school.


(I copied this from a RealGM post - but agree with it completely - dont want to plagerize).

Malastein
04-17-2013, 12:48 AM
Here are some guys who probably wish they didnt return to school and left when they were a lottery prospect (or higher prospect).

Jared Sullinger
Cody Zeller
Harrison Barnes
PJIII
Willie Warren
Chris Marcus

Here is a interesting SI artical on the topic:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/rob_dauster/06/27/Jared-Sullinger-Perry-Jones-draft/index.html

Olynyk has very little in common with those players. He didn't produce much until after an extraordinary redshirt year, which put him well beyond where most projections had him. He wasn't a fringe lottery pick until this past year, and he could be a higher lottery pick by honing his game further. See Blake Griffin. I think Kelly can go for very good to great. He hasn't been dominate on this level, and an extra year of gaining strength would do a lot for him mentally going to the next level.

webspinnre
04-17-2013, 07:00 AM
If you a sure fire 1st round pick you should ALWAYS come out. 3 reasons.

1. If you regress then you lose money.
2. If you do well after you come out, you are 1 year closer to a non-rookie deal.
3. You are more likely to improve under full-time pro instruction than part-time college instruction.

This is something that bothers me a lot, why on earth do people assume that if you are a "project" you're better served taking another year? Andre Drummond improved so much more playing for an NBA team rather than beating up a 6'7" centers in Big East while at UConn.



Completely agree with this.

cjm720
04-17-2013, 07:10 AM
KO's not a project. He's a bonafide NBA player, whether that's this year or next. He's going to make money but he's got unfinished business. I'm hoping he stays.

Mojo13
04-17-2013, 08:29 AM
Spock knows he should leave. Kirk wants him to stay.

Thats all these threads are about. The rational versus the emotional.

cjm720
04-17-2013, 08:33 AM
Spock knows he should leave. Kirk wants him to stay.

Thats all these threads are about. The rational versus the emotional.

Don't you think Kelly's going through the same thing? I sure do...very valid points across the board. I don't think this is an easy decision for him...

Mojo13
04-17-2013, 08:47 AM
A Canadian accountant screams Spock! The party on his head says Kirk!

Malastein
04-17-2013, 08:53 AM
KO's not a project. He's a bonafide NBA player, whether that's this year or next. He's going to make money but he's got unfinished business. I'm hoping he stays.

Does Kelly want to develop further on an NBA bench getting 10-15 minutes a game on a mid level team? Or does he want to be the man at Gonzaga and establish himself as one of the greatest college basketball players of the last 10 years? His game still has a ways to go, and if he can continue showing improvement he can become a top 10 pick with much stronger endorsement opportunities. The money would be better next year, and he be more prepared with an extra year of muscle development. As much as he improved thise areas, he still has a ways to go.

Mr Vulture
04-17-2013, 09:15 AM
I think that the general feeling on this subject is he should take the money while it's there, if he is guaranteed the 1st round. I personally feel that the money will still be there next year, and he can protect himself by being insured in case of injury.

He can continue to improve his game by coming back and I fully believe that is his best bet at a long NBA career. On the flip side, if he goes to the NBA this year he would complete his dream of being in the NBA and get paid. The downside there is that he would be lucky to get 15 minutes a game. Additionally, teams don't typically "develop" guys at that level.

It's a tough call and only Kelly will know what is best for him. I think it's very close for him and he is thinking it through completely. My gut says that he is going to stay one more year, but that may also be blind hope on my part.

ID ZAGFAN
04-17-2013, 12:00 PM
Updated Chad Ford mock draft (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9177182/2013-nba-draft-nerlens-noel-no-1-ranking-top-30-nba-draft-prospects): The number's unchanged, but I hadn't seen the comment before about the possibility of performing well against other bigs moving him into the top ten.
I don't see how he won't go this year, especially if he thinks there's a chance he could move himself into a top ten pick.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9177182/2013-nba-draft-nerlens-noel-no-1-ranking-top-30-nba-draft-prospects

Kelly up to 15 after Marcus Smart and McAdoo announced their return to school.

ZaGranny

DixieZag
04-17-2013, 01:08 PM
Does Kelly want to develop further on an NBA bench getting 10-15 minutes a game on a mid level team? Or does he want to be the man at Gonzaga and establish himself as one of the greatest college basketball players of the last 10 years? His game still has a ways to go, and if he can continue showing improvement he can become a top 10 pick with much stronger endorsement opportunities. The money would be better next year, and he be more prepared with an extra year of muscle development. As much as he improved thise areas, he still has a ways to go.

Basketball wise he may have a ways to go, but draft wise it might not be a long way to go up next year. . .

I felt the same way about Daye when he declared, I think he has proven me wrong.

I think.:confused: