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View Full Version : A simple way of looking at Saturdays Loss...



SamwiseTheZag
03-29-2013, 02:13 PM
Fact: Gonzaga allowed 37% 3pt shooting during the 2010-11 campaign ranking 297th in the Nation
Fact: Since Gary Bells arrival the team has allowed 32% 3pt shooting ranking 47th nationally over the past two seasons.
Fact: Gary Bell did not play in the final 18 minutes of the game last Saturday.
Fact: Wichita St shot 54% (7-13) from three in the 2nd half of last Saturdays game.

There are between 15-20 teams in this tournament that have enough bench talent to overcome an injury of a 30+ minute per game, all conference caliber starter.

Gonzaga is not one of these teams.

I hate excuses, but losing Gary Bell for 18 minutes of the 2nd half of last weekends game was a death sentence. It's as simple as that.

former1dog
03-29-2013, 02:21 PM
I hate to disagree with you because it makes it seem like I'm being critical of your main point which I take to be that Gary Bell is an important player for us. I don't disagree with that. I also don't disagree that Gary would have assisted mightily in defeating Wichita State.

So, with that in mind, here are a couple of other facts.

- Wichita State shot 7 of 15 for three in the first half of that game.
- Southern University shot 10 of 23 from three in the first round game.

GoZags
03-29-2013, 02:57 PM
I hate to disagree with you because it makes it seem like I'm being critical of your main point which I take to be that Gary Bell is an important player for us. I don't disagree with that. I also don't disagree that Gary would have assisted mightily in defeating Wichita State.

So, with that in mind, here are a couple of other facts.

- Wichita State shot 7 of 15 for three in the first half of that game.
- Southern University shot 10 of 23 from three in the first round game.

One other "fact".

Gary was injured during the Southern game.

True, he played through it, and played through the first half of the WSU game. But the first real "injury" of the season came at a horrible time. And F1D, it'd be tough for any team to hit 7 straight threes down the stretch in clutch time even if you and I were guarding the perimeter.

former1dog
03-29-2013, 02:59 PM
And F1D, it'd be tough for any team to hit 7 straight threes down the stretch in clutch time even if you and I were guarding the perimeter.

I don't know about you, but if I were out there they would have made 13 of 13 :D

HRZag
03-29-2013, 03:28 PM
GoZags, your skates would have chewed up the floor. And how would you ever dribble with those big glove things?

SamwiseTheZag
03-29-2013, 03:43 PM
I had two points.

1.) The team has been significantly better at defending the 3 point line the past 2 seasons, and Gary Bell has been a major reason for this.

2.) An injury to a contributor would spell doom for 95% of the teams in Division 1 Men's Basketball, and Gonzaga is one of those teams.

I have been a long time lurker of the GU Boards. I am still having a hard time getting over the loss to Wichita State. I have probably read way too many irrational posts and negative articles this week for my health and sanity.

I completely understand that it's not as simple as I put it in the original post. There are plenty of things one could focus on to explain the loss.

However, I don't think enough has been made of the fact that one of our best players was out the entire second half, and according to GoZags, was not at 100% for either game.

To me, this was the difference in the game.

former1dog
03-29-2013, 04:03 PM
I had two points.

1.) The team has been significantly better at defending the 3 point line the past 2 seasons, and Gary Bell has been a major reason for this.

2.) An injury to a contributor would spell doom for 95% of the teams in Division 1 Men's Basketball, and Gonzaga is one of those teams.

I have been a long time lurker of the GU Boards. I am still having a hard time getting over the loss to Wichita State. I have probably read way too many irrational posts and negative articles this week for my health and sanity.

I completely understand that it's not as simple as I put it in the original post. There are plenty of things one could focus on to explain the loss.

However, I don't think enough has been made of the fact that one of our best players was out the entire second half, and according to GoZags, was not at 100% for either game.

To me, this was the difference in the game.

Fair enough. Keep on posting, those are good observations

kclubfounder
03-29-2013, 04:21 PM
I had two points.

1.) The team has been significantly better at defending the 3 point line the past 2 seasons, and Gary Bell has been a major reason for this.

2.) An injury to a contributor would spell doom for 95% of the teams in Division 1 Men's Basketball, and Gonzaga is one of those teams.

I have been a long time lurker of the GU Boards. I am still having a hard time getting over the loss to Wichita State. I have probably read way too many irrational posts and negative articles this week for my health and sanity.

I completely understand that it's not as simple as I put it in the original post. There are plenty of things one could focus on to explain the loss.

However, I don't think enough has been made of the fact that one of our best players was out the entire second half, and according to GoZags, was not at 100% for either game.

To me, this was the difference in the game.

I'm with you brother. And I have several posts that express the exact same opinion.

Here's to next year being as fun as this year, but with a much better finish.

:cheers:

Oregonzagnut
03-29-2013, 04:39 PM
1.) The team has been significantly better at defending the 3 point line the past 2 seasons, and Gary Bell has been a major reason for this.

2.) An injury to a contributor would spell doom for 95% of the teams in Division 1 Men's Basketball, and Gonzaga is one of those teams.

Yes, Bell was injured and lost for the 2nd half of the WSU game. However, our depth should have at least compensated for that. Early in the year, our deep bench depth was supposed to be this huge benefit, and it was. But I think we were one of very few teams that were prepared for losing a major starting contributor.

The fact is, we weren't 100% and WSU team hit 14 three's. That is 42 points off of three point shots.

caduceus
03-29-2013, 05:03 PM
Yes, Bell was injured and lost for the 2nd half of the WSU game. However, our depth should have at least compensated for that. Early in the year, our deep bench depth was supposed to be this huge benefit, and it was. But I think we were one of very few teams that were prepared for losing a major starting contributor.

The fact is, we weren't 100% and WSU team hit 14 three's. That is 42 points off of three point shots.

Not at GBJ's position though. Even with his injury, GBJ's plus-minus for the game was even. He stops 2 treys during the second half, and we'd have likely been in Los Angeles. Stockton had a bad game (+/- was like -22), although a good deal of that can be attributed to our bigs missing bunnies down low. Hard to say what would've happened had Dranginis or Dower had more minutes, although both had decent numbers when they were in.

Despite the fact that WSU shot out of their minds, we very nearly beat them. I honestly think that WSU could've beaten nearly any top seed that night with the way they rained those threes, and they won despite GU absolutely kicking their butts on the boards. They shot 130% of their average, and we shot 76% of ours (for our lowest eFG% of the year).

bballbeachbum
03-29-2013, 05:52 PM
I had two points.

1.) The team has been significantly better at defending the 3 point line the past 2 seasons, and Gary Bell has been a major reason for this.

2.) An injury to a contributor would spell doom for 95% of the teams in Division 1 Men's Basketball, and Gonzaga is one of those teams.

I have been a long time lurker of the GU Boards. I am still having a hard time getting over the loss to Wichita State. I have probably read way too many irrational posts and negative articles this week for my health and sanity.

I completely understand that it's not as simple as I put it in the original post. There are plenty of things one could focus on to explain the loss.

However, I don't think enough has been made of the fact that one of our best players was out the entire second half, and according to GoZags, was not at 100% for either game.

To me, this was the difference in the game.

it certainly appeared to me to be one of the key differences in the game

McZag
03-29-2013, 06:40 PM
Well done Sam. A simple and wise take.

There is starter depth and contributor depth. Our bench is chuck full of contributors but for my money, when you need a stop you call Mike Hart and Gary Bell. Gary was not able to play and the combined effort of the contributors was just not enough.

There is never one single play that decides a game but there can be one single injury and we were likely victims of the later last Saturday.

Good stuff. Keep posting.

spike_jr
03-29-2013, 08:06 PM
I am just curious. How do you explain Dranginis coming into the came for GB with GU down 4 and he exits 7 1/2 minutes later with GU up 4. Over this same stretch, WSU was 1 for 3 from the arc. While I agree we could have really used GB in the last 5 minutes, it may have helped to have a lineup of KO, EH, KP, MH, and KD that got you the lead.

gonwick
03-29-2013, 08:25 PM
I am just curious. How do you explain Dranginis coming into the came for GB with GU down 4 and he exits 7 1/2 minutes later with GU up 4. Over this same stretch, WSU was 1 for 3 from the arc. While I agree we could have really used GB in the last 5 minutes, it may have helped to have a lineup of KO, EH, KP, MH, and KD that got you the lead.

That is a fantastic and very important pt that gets lost. The choice of lineup in the clutch seemed more about few's comfort zone than about results.

MJ777
03-29-2013, 08:32 PM
That is a fantastic and very important pt that gets lost. The choice of lineup in the clutch seemed more about few's comfort zone than about results.

In hindsight, Few should have inserted some length (KD) after the first couple of 3s went in during that last push by WSU.

Oregonzagnut
03-29-2013, 09:37 PM
An even simpler way of looking at our loss is that the only 1 seed left is Louisville. But here is my opinion on the games we bowed out of the Dance on.

Tourney Blowouts we had no business winning: 7 (1995, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2011)

Close tourney games we could have won: 6 (1999, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2012)
Close tourney games we should have won: 3 (2005, 2006, 2013)

Since I am trying to make myself feel better and this year was our second worst underachievement, we have decent results overall. Disregarding the regular seasons, in our tournament history, Gonzaga is a solid top 25 program, and if we consider the last decade, only about 20 teams have been more successful overall in the tournament.

We still are the top mid-major program and there are easily 30-40 major power programs who are jealous of us.

Now that indiana and Kansas are out, Gonzaga does not look like the ugly duckling anymore and more focus will be on our overall performance.

SamwiseTheZag
03-30-2013, 07:36 AM
Oregon,

I like the way you broke down the different losses in the tourney.

The categories of could and should are both based on perception. Which leads me back to my original point.

IMO, The 2012-13 GU men's basketball team needed all the key players on the floor and firing on all cylinders to win NCAA tournament games.

There were 4 players that needed to play big minutes as the tourney got tougher. One of those players went down and we suffered from it.

Determining if the team was deep enough, the rotations used to replace Bell, how many minutes someone played was right or wrong is pure opinion and can be debated forever.

I agree, that Dranginis seemed to play pretty well, and I would have liked to see more of him. But that doesn't really matter now.

Here's to Wichita State beating the Buckeyes today.

Go Shockers

GZag
03-30-2013, 03:49 PM
I have a little issue that sometimes over the course of the entire season, other players did not work as hard as Gary and Hart at defense. Steven Gray also worked his but t off too. It takes an entire team to play defense. It was better this year, but GU has a ways to go.