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View Full Version : Past History Indicating Future Results ??



howdydoody
03-23-2013, 08:38 PM
A few cases:
Game changing end of the game out of bounds issues against UCLA, Butler and happened again this evening.
-Curry lighting the Zags from outside.
-J.Ferdette lighting the Zags from the outside.
-Wichita State lighting the Zags from the outside.
Some adjustment is necessary how to stop the perimeter 3's.
All the above leading to loses that could have been wins.

But still this was a very very good bunch and tough to see it end like it did for them. Could have been Hart's best game but relying on three players, Kelly O.,Pangos and Harris to pull the scoring wagon is a load and Wichita knew where to focus defensively. Works fine for the the WCC but not against better teams. Even Southern was a struggle.
I would think the team and staff are taking it hard, so no need to heap it on. The Staff and Team gave it everything they had. Couldn't ask for more.

zagco
03-23-2013, 08:41 PM
It's been a broken record under Few. Good teams. Same ending every time.

krozman
03-23-2013, 08:42 PM
I think i'd rather have a 13 seed next year. Give me hope more than expectations any day of the week.

MJ777
03-23-2013, 08:43 PM
A few cases:
Game changing end of the game out of bounds issues against UCLA, Butler and happened again this evening.
-Curry lighting the Zags from outside.
-J.Ferdette lighting the Zags from the outside.
-Wichita State lighting the Zags from the outside.
Some adjustment is necessary how to stop the perimeter 3's.
All the above leading to loses that could have been wins.

But still this was a very very good bunch and tough to see it end like it did for them. Could have been Hart's best game but relying on three players, Kelly O.,Pangos and Harris to pull the scoring wagon is a load and Wichita knew where to focus defensively. Works fine for the the WCC but not against better teams. Even Southern was a struggle.
I would think the team and staff are taking it hard, so no need to heap it on. The Staff and Team gave it everything they had. Couldn't ask for more.

You forgot the Syracuse 3 pt barrage in the tourney a couple of years ago but I get your point.

zagco
03-23-2013, 08:45 PM
Zagco would like to see Few address these issues head on. They are obvious to everyone else. Do you think he does not see them? Best thing would be to address them head on. Zagco has seen coaches do that and it comes cross great.

jazzdelmar
03-23-2013, 08:46 PM
it wont change until. then again the devil u know wins....

gonwick
03-23-2013, 08:50 PM
Maybe they're taking it hard, but to what end? They seem to ignore the cause of the pain until it goes away. Ignoring a problem year after year does no one any good. Maybe gu just doesn't have great athletes, and that is what gets exposed in march, but it seems to hinge on 3 point defense every time. If this was the most "cerebral" team few has ever coached and they couldnt be taught to address the problem, then either the players don't have the talent or they arent being taught the correct approach. I would appreciate insight from those close to the program. How does gu continually fail in this regard?

HOOTER
03-23-2013, 08:52 PM
The definition of insanity? Anyone?

jazzdelmar
03-23-2013, 08:54 PM
Its not the quality of the players. GU has more guys in the NBA than Butler and a lot of schools it often loses too, such as Marys and BYU. Draw your own conclusions. Few gets us 26-28 wins a year. Thats his maginot line. someone else might do better or far worse. it is, what it is.

Oregonzagnut
03-23-2013, 08:54 PM
Few preached nastiness in November but then forgot about it in March. Few reverted back to his old self and the entire team followed right in line.

Few needs to get nasty himself and stop this habitual self-inflicted post season collapse.

It is on Few to know that he has to up his game.

thickman1
03-23-2013, 08:54 PM
The definition of insanity? Anyone?

Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. BOOM.

gonwick
03-23-2013, 08:59 PM
Can't few hire someone with a defensive bent to help? Anyone with any self awareness knows their own shortcomings, let alone someone whose team has been embarrassed year after year on national television by the same flaw. maybe coach ray will get a head coaching job and that can be used as an excuse.

lothar98zag
03-23-2013, 09:11 PM
After being destroyed on the boards by Mich St in the tourney 10 or so yrs ago, Few & Zags had a culture change regarding rebounds. I wonder if a culture change will come that addresses 3pt D &/or tourney strategy. My hopes aren't high, but Few has decided to foul when up 3, so anythings possible.

Still enjoyed this season immensely 98% of the time.

HOOTER
03-23-2013, 09:14 PM
Still enjoyed this season immensely 98% of the time.

And I'm sure we'll enjoy next season 98% of the time, just like last season and the season before.

Zags11
03-23-2013, 09:17 PM
+10000000000000000000


98% I did, but march brings more sadness.

montanazag88
03-23-2013, 09:18 PM
Let's not forget the proverbial "deer in the headlights" moment on offense at the 4+ minute mark, where the entire team stood still waiting for Mark to call the play - for nearly half the shot clock. This too is a déjàvu thing for Mark. It sure starts at three point line on defense, but our offense over the years under Mark has been painful to watch during the last 5 minutes of games where we are ahead. Absolutely painful in March when one loss sends teams packing. I pray he solves this.

ZagHouse
03-23-2013, 09:19 PM
All I gotta say is that's one big frickin hump.

mihalevich
03-23-2013, 09:20 PM
Maybe they're taking it hard, but to what end? They seem to ignore the cause of the pain until it goes away. Ignoring a problem year after year does no one any good. Maybe gu just doesn't have great athletes, and that is what gets exposed in march, but it seems to hinge on 3 point defense every time. If this was the most "cerebral" team few has ever coached and they couldnt be taught to address the problem, then either the players don't have the talent or they arent being taught the correct approach. I would appreciate insight from those close to the program. How does gu continually fail in this regard?

Lets try and understand that there is no "special D" to defend the 3...go look at replays of their 3's..most were contested as well as expected....I love how people say defending the 3 is some sort of coaching issue...they frickin hit 60% of their 3's!!! go look at other games played in tourney and 3's taken...they are similar looks that WSU had...If any damn team can shoot contested 3's that well they are going to win...what are you advocating? to play so close they go around you? quicker guards could help some but that is totally different issue and changes with different recruits...

come on, lets have some basic basketball sense..

bostonzagfan
03-23-2013, 09:21 PM
so sick of this. few = high floor, low ceiling

bostonzagfan
03-23-2013, 09:21 PM
Lets try and understand that there is no "special D" to defend the 3...go look at replays of their 3's..most were contested as well as expected....I love how people say defending the 3 is some sort of coaching issue...they frickin hit 60% of their 3's!!! go look at other games played in tourney and 3's taken...they are similar looks that WSU had...If any damn team can shoot contested 3's that well they are going to win...what are you advocating? to play so close they go around you? quicker guards could help some but that is totally different issue and changes with different recruits...

come on, lets have some basic basketball sense..

if the threes are all contested then why do teams seem to always hit contested threes against only us and no one else?

AK457
03-23-2013, 09:23 PM
1. Thanks for the great season Zags. It was a ton of fun.
2. We will never be able to gauge how good this team really is as long as the second half of the season is played against one inferior opponent after another. We can debate whether or not we should leave the WCC or whatever the solution might be, but the lack of information on how good GU is relative to other teams is an inevitability in March.

MJ777
03-23-2013, 09:25 PM
if the threes are all contested then why do teams seem to always hit contested threes against only us and no one else?

If I am remembering correctly SMC and BYU missed a lot of 3 pointers that looked similar to the ones WSU was hitting tonight. Most were not wide open.

madness
03-23-2013, 09:29 PM
after being destroyed on the boards by mich st in the tourney 10 or so yrs ago, few & zags had a culture change regarding rebounds. I wonder if a culture change will come that addresses 3pt d &/or tourney strategy. My hopes aren't high, but few has decided to foul when up 3, so anythings possible.

Still enjoyed this season immensely 98% of the time.

+1000000

gonwick
03-23-2013, 09:32 PM
I guess maybe i need someone to explain it to me, lacking basic basketball sense, how gu manages to bring out the best in teams in 3 point shooting year after year. Freakish statistical anomaly? That appears to be what you are advocating, rather than a tangible item (sagging off perimeter players, short wings, missing rotations, etc.)... Is it likelier that we would be done in by the same problem year after year because of bad luck or because we are doing something consistently wrong?

Zags11
03-23-2013, 09:33 PM
Lets try and understand that there is no "special D" to defend the 3...go look at replays of their 3's..most were contested as well as expected....I love how people say defending the 3 is some sort of coaching issue...they frickin hit 60% of their 3's!!! go look at other games played in tourney and 3's taken...they are similar looks that WSU had...If any damn team can shoot contested 3's that well they are going to win...what are you advocating? to play so close they go around you? quicker guards could help some but that is totally different issue and changes with different recruits...

come on, lets have some basic basketball sense..

Go look at the "contested" 3s. kskn22 sports showed 6 3s by wsu. 1 was guarded by DS. The others were wide open off of sagging and doubling down.

zagco
03-23-2013, 10:36 PM
The college line is too easy. Everyone can shoot them. It should be international distance.

bostonzagfan
03-23-2013, 11:08 PM
If I am remembering correctly SMC and BYU missed a lot of 3 pointers that looked similar to the ones WSU was hitting tonight. Most were not wide open.

if your point is that st marys and byu missed a lot of open threes and therefore aren't very good, point taken. if your point is that gu plays good three point defense, go look at our tourney results in the past years.

gonwick
03-23-2013, 11:35 PM
Kenpom mentions that teams can affect how many 3s their opponents take. Gu clearly decided to play the lottery, as it always does. This is a bad decision, and has proven over time to be one, yet few hasn't changed. Kenpom also assumes that good and bad 3 point defense will average out, that teams aren't being given wide open looks. He hasn't watched our games. Even our contested 3s are contested by short guards with a hand near the shooter's face.

Zags11
03-23-2013, 11:37 PM
To illustrate why a team might have little control over its opponents’ three-point shooting, consider a ball screen situation. If a defender goes under a ball screen, the ballhander, assuming he’s a good shooter, will be inclined to shoot. If the defender goes over the screen, the ballhandler’s response will not be to shoot a more difficult shot, it will be to not shoot at all. In this way, defensive strategies tend to impact the number of threes taken and not the percentage of threes made. By the end of the season, opponents have taken a mix of open and contested shots based on their own decisions, and from the defense’s point of view the distribution of these decisions isn’t going to differ much from team to team. Thus, the resulting rankings of defensive 3P% are largely random, influenced some by opponents shooting ability.

Zags11
03-23-2013, 11:38 PM
In other words, you’d be better off assuming teams have no control over three-point defense than assuming swings over a two or three game stretch say anything about one’s defense. I’m willing to concede the Boeheim zone has some influence, but it’s small. And I remain convinced that Ray Giacoletti had it completely backwards. If you want to keep opponents from making three-point shots, your best move is to prevent them from taking those shots.

Its the defense strategy we use.

hoopaddict
03-23-2013, 11:40 PM
Go look at the "contested" 3s. kskn22 sports showed 6 3s by wsu. 1 was guarded by DS. The others were wide open off of sagging and doubling down.

Spot on! Why we were helping down in the post at all was puzzling to me, to say the least. Our perimeter defense was very poor down the stretch. Not sure if that was a coaching decision or just poor decision making by some of the players. Guess we'll never know. What I do know is that we need longer, more athletic guards.

Zag79
03-25-2013, 01:20 AM
To illustrate why a team might have little control over its opponents’ three-point shooting, consider a ball screen situation. If a defender goes under a ball screen, the ballhander, assuming he’s a good shooter, will be inclined to shoot. If the defender goes over the screen, the ballhandler’s response will not be to shoot a more difficult shot, it will be to not shoot at all. In this way, defensive strategies tend to impact the number of threes taken and not the percentage of threes made. By the end of the season, opponents have taken a mix of open and contested shots based on their own decisions, and from the defense’s point of view the distribution of these decisions isn’t going to differ much from team to team. Thus, the resulting rankings of defensive 3P% are largely random, influenced some by opponents shooting ability.

In saying this Ken Pom is right to an extent, but coaching can influence the style of play and it's results. Our scheme affects us advancing in March, and the inability to stop the three isn't a coincidence.

WallaWallaZag
03-25-2013, 01:33 AM
reading this thread i would be curious to know three things:

1). do teams take a higher percentage of 3 point shots against the zags than they normally do?

2). do teams shoot a higher percentage from 3 against the zags than they normally do?

3). do the above stats change between out of conference, wcc opponents, and march?

GrizZAG
03-25-2013, 05:55 AM
Seems teams take more threes because of our lock down interior defense forces it. Also, momentum from two key elements near game end gave them confidence. 1) KO not getting the call underneath 2) brainfart inbound

We had been having a problem with fouling too much on 3 defense if you recall.
I am thinking Few told them not to foul and played the odds a bit. Why is that so hard to grasp for some? They had a big lucky day shooting the 3. We are by far not the only team to lose to this same scenario. WSU shoots their historic three percentage.. we hammer them. We were off balance too long in this game as well.

Reborn
03-25-2013, 08:00 AM
I remember back in high school when we were playing for the state championship. We were playing the second best team in the tournament, and we were behind by 12 points at halftime (we were undefeated and #1 in the polls). Our coach calmly told us at halftime that we were playing really good defense, but if we wanted to win we had to somehow reach down inside of ourselves and play better. We had to find a way to reach another level. We did, and we caught up by the end of the 3rd quarter and went on to become undefeated state champs.

"Sometimes the good often gets in the way of the best." They were playing good defense, as some of you bloggers say. But their good D was NOT good enough, and they could NOT find a way to play D better. Sometimes a coach needs to motivate his players to reach down inside themselves and find that place inside where they can go to another level and play even better. Wichita State found a higher level of play then the Zags could find. In the end they could not stop Wichita State. Wichita St was not a better 3 pt shooting team than Gonzaga. And if you go by statistics over the year they may have been one of the worst 3 pt shooting teams in the country. But for that one night, when they needed to make three's they did. They shot 50% from behind the 3 and they were a 33 % three point shooting team.

Unbiased
03-25-2013, 08:18 AM
Lets try and understand that there is no "special D" to defend the 3...go look at replays of their 3's..most were contested as well as expected....I love how people say defending the 3 is some sort of coaching issue...they frickin hit 60% of their 3's!!! go look at other games played in tourney and 3's taken...they are similar looks that WSU had...If any damn team can shoot contested 3's that well they are going to win...what are you advocating? to play so close they go around you? quicker guards could help some but that is totally different issue and changes with different recruits...

come on, lets have some basic basketball sense..

I don't know - "manning up" on the player would help. I'd bet the makes by an offensive player on the perimerter who is closely guarded versus "flying in" on an unguarded player goes down to 20 percent.

Unbiased
03-25-2013, 08:21 AM
I remember back in high school when we were playing for the state championship. We were playing the second best team in the tournament, and we were behind by 12 points at halftime (we were undefeated and #1 in the polls). Our coach calmly told us at halftime that we were playing really good defense, but if we wanted to win we had to somehow reach down inside of ourselves and play better. We had to find a way to reach another level. We did, and we caught up by the end of the 3rd quarter and went on to become undefeated state champs.

"Sometimes the good often gets in the way of the best." They were playing good defense, as some of you bloggers say. But their good D was NOT good enough, and they could NOT find a way to play D better. Sometimes a coach needs to motivate his players to reach down inside themselves and find that place inside where they can go to another level and play even better. Wichita State found a higher level of play then the Zags could find. In the end they could not stop Wichita State. Wichita St was not a better 3 pt shooting team than Gonzaga. And if you go by statistics over the year they may have been one of the worst 3 pt shooting teams in the country. But for that one night, when they needed to make three's they did. They shot 50% from behind the 3 and they were a 33 % three point shooting team.

If the Zags played with the level of intenisity they did in the last two minutes they would have one by 25 points.