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View Full Version : Bilas Brackets - It's who you beat



mgadfly
03-20-2013, 11:03 PM
Today is all about GU and the actual game against Southern, but I still can't get Jay Bilas' crying about the "message" the committee sent by penalizing teams for who they lost to rather than rewarding them for who they beat. I've always thought who you lost to matters, but whatever...

Still, needing to burn 13 hours until the game, I decided to take Bilas' protest to heart and look at the tourney from the standpoint of "who teams beat" while disregarding who they lost to. I seeded teams without regard to losses, RPI, etc... (or even probation, so good news UCONN, you're in the field, after all, it is about getting the best teams in the tournament). Oh, and that also means no automatic bids. Why does the winner of the Big Sky get to go dancing anyway, everybody knows they aren't as good as the worst team in the ACC, right?

The criteria? Wins against top 25 teams. Then wins against 26 to 50 teams. Then wins against 51-100 teams. Thus, if you have 2 wins against the top 25, you are seeded higher than any team with less wins against the top 25. It is about who you beat. No team makes the field unless they beat a top 25 squad at least once (sorry Memphis, enjoy the NIT). If two teams have the same number of top 25 wins, the tie breaker is 26-50 wins and then 51 to 100 wins. If they have the same number of wins against each group, then RPI is the tie breaker.

So, the number one overall seed in the 2013 Bilas Bracket is ...

The Hoosiers of Indiana. Sporting a nations best 7 wins against the top 25 they earned the top spot.

The other #1's: Kansas, Duke, and St. Louis

2: Miami, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Louisville,
3: Georgetown, Ohio State, Butler, Illini
4: Nova, Mich. State, Michigan, UNLV
5: Xavier, UCLA, Minnesota, Temple
6: Boise State, VCU, Marquette, Syracuse
7: Arizona, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, San Diego State
8: Mizzou, Oregon, Colorado, UCONN
9: Virginia, Pitt, Air Force, Indiana State
10: Wichita State, North Carolina State, Maryland, La Salle
11: Fresno State, AND the top seed with just 1 win against top 25 competition ... Gonzaga, Kansas State, Florida
12: Cinci, Cal, Iowa State, Colorado State
13: Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Kentucky
14: Arkansas, Texas, Northern Iowa, North Carolina
15: Charlotte, Washington, U.S.C., Wake Forest
16: Baylor, Georgia Tech, TCU vs St. Mary's (for the right to play Indiana), South Florida vs UCF (for the right to play Kansas)

First four out: Richmond, South Dakota State, Murray State, Penn State
Next four out: Green Bay, Illinois State, Drake, Florida Gulf Coast

Santa Clara qualified for consideration, but finished 79th. BYU had no wins against the top 25 and may meet up with Memphis in the NIT. Creighton, Belmont, Middle Tennessee all in the NIT.


When I plotted the brackets 11 seeded Gonzaga plays 6 seed Boise State in the West. The winner takes on either 3 - Ohio State or 14 - Arkansas.

The 1 vs 16 matchup of Saint Louis v Baylor could be a good game. And Siva would get to see what he could do against his hometown team in a 2 vs 15 matchup.

Ekrub
03-21-2013, 06:32 AM
Lol this is pretty awesome

B LAKE ZAG
03-21-2013, 07:55 AM
Everything's good except gonZags seat

webspinnre
03-21-2013, 08:00 AM
What rankings are you using to determine 1-25, 26-50, etc? If it's regular rankings for top 25, Zags have 2 (Ok St, K St).

Team Oosik
03-21-2013, 08:03 AM
Cool. Except not following what criteria you used to rank the teams. You must have used rpi?

MTZag03
03-21-2013, 08:12 AM
another fun exercise would be to take the field of 68, completely disregard all their wins, and rank them only off of bad losses. See the reverse effect. I'm sure GU would be the #1 overall seed in that scenario.

zagco
03-21-2013, 08:18 AM
Bilas has gone totally nuts this year. He looks and sounds like a man who is losing his grip on the cliff.

mgadfly
03-21-2013, 08:50 AM
Cool. Except not following what criteria you used to rank the teams. You must have used rpi?

I used wins against top 25 RPI teams (per ESPN website).

So if you had 4 teams with 4 wins against top 25 RPI, I would then go to how many wins they had against 26 to 50 RPI.

Gonzaga and Kansas State each have 1 win against the top 25 RPI.
Gonzaga and Kansas State each have 5 wins against the 26-50 RPI range teams.
Gonzaga has 6 wins against 51 to 100 while KState has only 2 wins. Thus, the second tie-breaker goes to GU and they received the top seed for any team with only a single win against top 25 competition.

When you disregard losses and just look at "who you beat" you quickly see how indefensible Bilas' position is. 18-11 UCF in, but league champion and 30-4 Memphis out. GU as an 11 seed.

kclubfounder
03-21-2013, 09:02 AM
Seed us anywhere at any seed this year. Feel free.

This is the team!

This is the year!

NumberCruncher
03-21-2013, 09:53 AM
Nice work, mgadfly. Thanks for pointing out the absurdity of what he said. For instance, Kansas lost to TCU and didn't get dinged.

Seems to me the committee sends different messages all the time. One message they often send is to get out on the road in the OOC. The spokesman (forget his name) came right out and said that was a factor in rewarding the Zags this year, even referring to how we've done that over the years.

As for Bilas: I have always disagreed with his "best teams" argument. All of the truly deserving teams always get in. IMO, if you're on the bubble, then you aren't truly deserving of a chance at the title. I like the fact that the small-major conferences get a dance ticket. It adds to the charm of the tourney and gives the very top teams a warm-up game. If it were up to me, I'd go back to 64 teams and let the bubble teams play in the NIT.

U Zig, I Zag
03-21-2013, 09:55 AM
Here's the deal: the Zags drop one on the road against anyone (might get BYU/SMC pass) in WCC play and we are a 3-seed. So to say it doesn't matter, it does. In fact, our seeding the last couple years (to me anyway) is a product of us dropping some stinkers on the road each year.

gamagin
03-21-2013, 10:50 AM
My mind is working o.t., on something else but does your report consider what the rank was when the teams played ? or what the rank was at the end ?

That has bothered me for some time. i.e. there are SO many ways to look at this stuff, the body of work -- i.e. consistent winning -- still seems to trump all the other stuff.

webspinnre
03-21-2013, 11:13 AM
I used wins against top 25 RPI teams (per ESPN website).

So if you had 4 teams with 4 wins against top 25 RPI, I would then go to how many wins they had against 26 to 50 RPI.

Gonzaga and Kansas State each have 1 win against the top 25 RPI.
Gonzaga and Kansas State each have 5 wins against the 26-50 RPI range teams.
Gonzaga has 6 wins against 51 to 100 while KState has only 2 wins. Thus, the second tie-breaker goes to GU and they received the top seed for any team with only a single win against top 25 competition.

When you disregard losses and just look at "who you beat" you quickly see how indefensible Bilas' position is. 18-11 UCF in, but league champion and 30-4 Memphis out. GU as an 11 seed.

Thanks for the clarification and the work. This was fun.