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combatcorpsmangulaw
03-12-2013, 10:59 AM
I believe the sportswriters and television pundits would cry themselves to sleep if they didn't pick Duke as the overall number 1 going into the NCAA.

However, I firmly believe a case can be made for Gonzaga based on the record, the margin of victories, the on-the-road wins, especially in the Big 12.

Unfortunately, the Bias is so strong for 'everything Duke', the Zags won't get the nod.

Opinions?

Ekrub
03-12-2013, 11:06 AM
The fact is our SOS is weak. That hurts us. If I was on dukes side I would be making the same argument that they are making. Don't really care though. #1 seed and out west and I'm good to go :)

krozman
03-12-2013, 11:07 AM
No matter what 1 we get, it's in the west. Not sure I care who gets the overall.

cjm720
03-12-2013, 11:19 AM
I'd love to see the media call out some of the big boys to play against some of the WCC opponents on the road.

As much as I think the WCC drags us down, I also think some of those high profile teams would struggle.

jazzdelmar
03-12-2013, 11:22 AM
duke is marginally a more worthy overall top seed than gu, thats the truth.

BTB
03-12-2013, 11:27 AM
I think we are going to be lucky to get a 1 seed depending on how the power conference tourneys play out

LongIslandZagFan
03-12-2013, 11:39 AM
I think we are going to be lucky to get a 1 seed depending on how the power conference tourneys play out

31-2 makes it hard to do that. More likely to be pushed down to lowest 1 seed.

CarolinaZagFan
03-12-2013, 11:43 AM
I think we are going to be lucky to get a 1 seed depending on how the power conference tourneys play out

True, but we could also lock in the #1 overall seed depending on how the power conference tourney play out.

MDABE80
03-12-2013, 11:53 AM
The record is there but the body of work is not. Unless something catastrophic happens, Duke's got the overall sewed up but acclaim if nothing else.
Our SOS makes it impossible for GU to clain the "overall".

We'll be counting our lucky stars if we remain no 1 in the polls and grab a standard 1 seed. It's the best we can do unless the earth's polarity reverses itself. On top of that, the policitcs plays in when the committee meets.

Given all this, I'd say GU will be in the same great shape if we pull a 1/1, We should be grateful.

rawkmandale
03-12-2013, 11:55 AM
True, but we could also lock in the #1 overall seed depending on how the power conference tourney play out.

Yeah - root for Marquette, NC State, and Ohio State

siliconzag
03-12-2013, 12:03 PM
31-2 makes it hard to do that. More likely to be pushed down to lowest 1 seed.

I see us being the #1, #1 seed, baring a compete domination of the ACC tournament by the Blue Devils or the same of the Big 10 by Indiana. In which case worst case scenario #3 #1 seed (assuming both).

Make no mistake, Zag fans, this is a terrific team, and it is getting better. All teams are vulnerable to a hot shooting team which is why I would not want the Zags to face Creighton early on.

I worried about last night more than many of the loyalists on the Forum. I am more of a self acclaimed Thomas (Tomist?) who had (emphasis on past tense) doubts about the legitimacy of the Zags rating. The complete domination of SMC was not something I would have predicted. I thought we would be lucky to escape with a close win, and yet the Zags thrashed them more handily than they did in Moraga. Amazing, and it shows that there has been interval improvement on the Gonzaga team.

Putting Hart on Delly was a very intelligent move by Coach Few. He had a few inches on him, and stayed with him for the most part. Stopping SMC is really all about stopping Delly. The offense looked terrific when Stockton ran it, and he has completely vindicated himself (as if he needed to). A couple of turnovers in recent games showed the intended recipients asleep at the switch. He adds a lot to our inside game with his dime wizzardry.

Kelly's steal on Delly was brilliant, as was the punctuation, and once that happened, school was out, the fat lady sang, and it was time to break out the booze. What a brilliant game they played. I watched the celebration on ESPN3 and was glad to see Coach acknowledge the fans, who looked great last night. The crowd was noisy and appreciative, befitting a terrific performance and season by the Zags.

I think there has been considerable development in the program, and let's just hope and pray (sometimes the victors are the fortunate rather than the competent), that the Zags don't run into a very hot shooting team, because that is the only thing that could derail the Atlanta express.

Nice job, Zags and Zag fans. You done us proud.

Sili

exclusivelee
03-12-2013, 12:09 PM
Yeah - root for Marquette, NC State, and Ohio State

and Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Baylor, Oklahoma, & West Virginia

rennis
03-12-2013, 12:15 PM
Duke's OOC schedule and wins were damn impressive. If they win out, I'd have a hard time not calling them #1 myself.

Oregonzagnut
03-12-2013, 12:38 PM
I think the power rankings and overall efficiency ratings favor Duke more than the Zags. We will now just hope that Duke, Louisville, Indiana and/or Georgetown/Mich St/New Mex/Kansas lose early in their tournaments, so we can be the clear top of the heap.

As a matter of personal satisfaction, that is what I want. I want to be first in the nation with a significant distance between us and 2nd place.

Call me selfish.

Zagdawg
03-12-2013, 12:39 PM
#1 or #2 seed in the West and we are golden-- i am not concerned about the overall #1.

hooter73
03-12-2013, 12:43 PM
At this point give me a #1 seed and you can do whatever you want with the rankings. GU made its own history with its first ever #1, we've held it a week or two... move on to the important stuff that will help us make history again.

jim77
03-12-2013, 12:49 PM
Zags are ranked #1 and I saw nothing last night to change that....they can make a claim for the overall#1 seed.

ZagMan in Philly
03-12-2013, 12:52 PM
duke is marginally a more worthy overall top seed than gu, thats the truth.

Bruce Pearl on the SiriusXM radio show said Zags are good enough to be in Atlanta. And he is hoping for the match up between Zags and Duke, he thinks that it is the best match up of the tournament. Whoa Nelly. I am salivating on the possibility of this game in Atlanta.

Ekrub
03-12-2013, 01:05 PM
I think the power rankings and overall efficiency ratings favor Duke more than the Zags. We will now just hope that Duke, Louisville, Indiana and/or Georgetown/Mich St/New Mex/Kansas lose early in their tournaments, so we can be the clear top of the heap.

As a matter of personal satisfaction, that is what I want. I want to be first in the nation with a significant distance between us and 2nd place.

Call me selfish.

I'm with you to an extent, but it's tough to say where exactly the match ups will fall. I want a #1 seed and the best possible draw more than #1 overall. But I'd be happy with both.

TacomaZAG
03-12-2013, 01:12 PM
The regular season is over, we are preparing for our annual trip to the Dance, and we are having a serious discussion about being the #1 overall seed in the tournament. Are you kidding me.........what parallel universe are we living in this season??? Little ol' Gonzaga University is crashing the party again, not as a Cinderella this time but as, arguably, the belle of the ball.

We may not get the overall #1, and may not deserve it over Duke, but to be a part of a serious conversation at this point in the season means we have arrived, finally, at the top of the mountain. Rarified air, folks, rarified air.

I really don't care if we get the overall #1 seed, but it is fun to discuss and speculate. However, if we don't get a #1 seed, the whole selection process is a joke, run by BCS hypocrite posers. As Joe Lunardi said last night, no #1 ranked team who won their conference tournament has ever NOT been a #1 seed.

If we don't get a #1 seed after doing everything right, and going 31-2 while doing it, we should just throw in the towel and start scheduling the OOC like Romar and Bennett........

Not to be a pessimist, but I've seen this movie before. Duke and Indiana have a #1 locked up, regardless of how they fare in their conference tourneys. Likewise, Kansas does as well if they win their conference tourney. That leaves the ZAGS, Georgetown, Louisville, Miami, Michigan, and others fighting for the last #1 spot. That spot should definitely be ours, but stranger things have happened.

My prediction.......we get that final #1 seed but draw Kentucky, North Carolina, or Creighton in the second round. Thanks for nothing, selection committee.....

Go ZAGS

CaliforniaZaggin'
03-12-2013, 01:13 PM
If Duke loses this week, then no #1 seed, IMO. How can I team be a #1 seed if they don't win either their conference's regular season or tournament titles? Winners should get #1 seeds.

JPtheBeasta
03-12-2013, 01:31 PM
31-2 makes it hard to do that. More likely to be pushed down to lowest 1 seed.

+1.

I can't think of a scenario where 4 teams jump over us, at this point.

BTB
03-12-2013, 01:39 PM
+1.

I can't think of a scenario where 4 teams jump over us, at this point.

In Lunardi's last bracketology update he had us as the 3rd 1 seed. Only 2 teams would have to jump us.. Georgetown is a prime candidate if they win their conference tourney. I don't think Kansas deserves a 1 no matter what they do now. It will be close.

CDC84
03-12-2013, 01:40 PM
Duke and Indiana are locks, and I think the number one overall will ultimately go to one of them.

The other three major contenders for one seeds are Louisville, Georgetown and Kansas.

The only way Kansas is getting a one is if Louisville and G'Town don't win the Big East tourney title and KU wins the Big 12 tourney title. The loss at TCU, the 3 game losing streak, the blow out at Baylor and the officiating gift at Iowa State will be too much to overcome.

I doubt that the Big 10 gets a second number one seed. Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State have .500 or worse records vs. the RPI top 50.

The Florida Gulf Coast, Indiana State, Wake Forest and Ga Tech losses have eliminated Miami FLA from this discussion, even if they win the ACC tourney. You just can't lose to teams like this and be a one seed.

scott257
03-12-2013, 01:43 PM
Will there be any updated polls between now and the selection? I was under the impression (possibly mistaken) that we would be going in as number one in the polls when the selection committee meets. Of course while that is no guarantee that we will be considered number 1 overall by the selection committee, the polls will still reflect that we are. Having said that, does anyone know of occasions where the selection committee picked a different number 1 than the polls?

jpn17
03-12-2013, 01:45 PM
I honestly don't care which #1 seed Gonzaga gets. Even more than that, Gonzaga staying in the West is more important to me than Gonzaga getting a 1 seed at all. However at this point I don't see how Gonzaga doesn't get both a one seed and get put in the West regional.

The only thing I'd like to hear the talking heads explain is how Duke can be #1 overall when they didn't even win their conference. Seems like quite a disconnect there.

jazzdelmar
03-12-2013, 01:46 PM
Bruce Pearl on the SiriusXM radio show said Zags are good enough to be in Atlanta. And he is hoping for the match up between Zags and Duke, he thinks that it is the best match up of the tournament. Whoa Nelly. I am salivating on the possibility of this game in Atlanta.


Sure that would be a ratings bonanza. Basketball the old-fashioned way. America's two favorite teams. No one And done extra athletic players. Actually a repeat of Butler against Duke. Be fun.

JPtheBeasta
03-12-2013, 02:33 PM
In Lunardi's last bracketology update he had us as the 3rd 1 seed. Only 2 teams would have to jump us.. Georgetown is a prime candidate if they win their conference tourney. I don't think Kansas deserves a 1 no matter what they do now. It will be close.

Good points. I was just working from the assumption that we are entering right now as the overall one seed, since we are #1 ranked and just won our tournament.

Does Florida have a chance in anyone's eyes of a #1?

siliconzag
03-12-2013, 02:52 PM
Team A has 2 losses, one of which was by 11 points and another by 1 point on a fluke.

Team B has one loss of 27 points (an old fashioned whoppin), and a loss to a team its conference with an under .500 conference record, and two other losses in conference to teams with mediocre records.

I think team A is more deserving of a top rating.

Number one, number one seeds generally are not the victims of blow outs.
I recognize that the committee comes with a heavy BCS and East Coast bias, but save one performance by Team A, their record is nearly pristine.

Come on, selection committe, get a grip. A comes before B. Period.

Sili

ZagMan in Philly
03-12-2013, 02:58 PM
Good points. I was just working from the assumption that we are entering right now as the overall one seed, since we are #1 ranked and just won our tournament.

Does Florida have a chance in anyone's eyes of a #1?

Florida is a totally different team away from their home court, I don't think they will be a 1 seed.

Bushman
03-12-2013, 03:09 PM
Team A has 2 losses, one of which was by 11 points and another by 1 point on a fluke.

Team B has one loss of 27 points (an old fashioned whoppin), and a loss to a team its conference with an under .500 conference record, and two other losses in conference to teams with mediocre records.

I think team A is more deserving of a top rating.

Number one, number one seeds generally are not the victims of blow outs.
I recognize that the committee comes with a heavy BCS and East Coast bias, but save one performance by Team A, their record is nearly pristine.

Come on, selection committe, get a grip. A comes before B. Period.

Sili

Hey Sili, you are forgetting something...THIS IS TOO LOGICAL!!!

Great post! Remember, Canada loves the ZAGS!

Reborn
03-12-2013, 03:49 PM
I see us being the #1, #1 seed, baring a compete domination of the ACC tournament by the Blue Devils or the same of the Big 10 by Indiana. In which case worst case scenario #3 #1 seed (assuming both).

Make no mistake, Zag fans, this is a terrific team, and it is getting better. All teams are vulnerable to a hot shooting team which is why I would not want the Zags to face Creighton early on.

I worried about last night more than many of the loyalists on the Forum. I am more of a self acclaimed Thomas (Tomist?) who had (emphasis on past tense) doubts about the legitimacy of the Zags rating. The complete domination of SMC was not something I would have predicted. I thought we would be lucky to escape with a close win, and yet the Zags thrashed them more handily than they did in Moraga. Amazing, and it shows that there has been interval improvement on the Gonzaga team.

Putting Hart on Delly was a very intelligent move by Coach Few. He had a few inches on him, and stayed with him for the most part. Stopping SMC is really all about stopping Delly. The offense looked terrific when Stockton ran it, and he has completely vindicated himself (as if he needed to). A couple of turnovers in recent games showed the intended recipients asleep at the switch. He adds a lot to our inside game with his dime wizzardry.

Kelly's steal on Delly was brilliant, as was the punctuation, and once that happened, school was out, the fat lady sang, and it was time to break out the booze. What a brilliant game they played. I watched the celebration on ESPN3 and was glad to see Coach acknowledge the fans, who looked great last night. The crowd was noisy and appreciative, befitting a terrific performance and season by the Zags.

I think there has been considerable development in the program, and let's just hope and pray (sometimes the victors are the fortunate rather than the competent), that the Zags don't run into a very hot shooting team, because that is the only thing that could derail the Atlanta express.

Nice job, Zags and Zag fans. You done us proud.

Sili

Thanks for the great post, Sili. I was wondering what you thought. Your post is really so beautiful in it's description of our Zags. You brought a few more tears to my eyes, but they are tears of love and joy for our team. Your post is so believable because of the fact that you are a Thomist (istn' it Doubting Thomas), and it took the whole year for the team to convince you (which I appreciate in you). Converts (people coming into the Catholic Church from either other churches, or from no church at all) I think have always made more of an impact on me regarding their faith, then Catholics like me who were born into their faith.

But, in all honesty, Sili, you are right. If we are to be honest, Gonzaga does deserve to be the #1 seed and not Duke. Gonzaga is so far ahead in #1 votes in both polls that I feel the Committee must take this into consideration. The analysts on ESPN try to use the argument that Duke is undefeated with Kelly in the starting lineup, but they fail to mention that Duke got beat pretty badly by Miami in Miami. Would Duke have beaten Miami in their home arena with Kelly? I say no. And I also predict that they will get beaten by Miami in the ACC tournament this week. They barely beat them @ home and in a game Kelly was completely unconscious. I also agree with your logic when you point out that it would be very very odd for a team to be the #1 number one seed when they don't even win their conference. And lastly, the Committee will look at the road records of both schools, and Gonzaga has one of the best road records of ANY school, including Duke. Gonzaga has one road loss, and everyone should know that that was a fluke. And from what I have heard, road victories are very important to the Committee. I hope that what I heard is correct.

Anyway, thanks for your post, Sili. You convince me. I hope that someone on the committee reads your post.

Go Zags!!!

CdAZagFan
03-12-2013, 11:12 PM
Personally, I would love to see Indiana/GU as the last two standing. KO dominating ESPNs darling Zeller, MH & GBJ shutting down Oladipo, and KP reining 3s over Hulls...

willandi
03-13-2013, 06:51 AM
I thought it strange that we were the number1, 1 seed, beat SMC handily (could have been more but Few called off the horses), while the other POTENTIAL number 1 seeds haven't yet played another game, and the Zags have been moved down.

No matter how much Lunardi and the talking heads say they like the Zags, THAT is a BCS (or Big Conference, or East Coast) bias!

pbriz
03-13-2013, 08:04 AM
Keep in mind that the committee does take into regard how a team plays when at full strength vs injuries. Duke has not lost when Ryan Kelly has played. This gives them the overall #1.

webspinnre
03-13-2013, 08:42 AM
Keep in mind that the committee does take into regard how a team plays when at full strength vs injuries. Duke has not lost when Ryan Kelly has played. This gives them the overall #1.

This is the biggest point in Duke's favor. They do have some losses that hurt, but they were without Kelly. If they lose this weekend, especially before the championship, then they drop. If not, I'd have no problem with them being overall #1. Same thing with Indiana if they win their tourney. If both lose in their tourneys, I've got to think we've got a shot at the #1 overall.

rennis
03-13-2013, 09:06 AM
Keep in mind that the committee does take into regard how a team plays when at full strength vs injuries. Duke has not lost when Ryan Kelly has played. This gives them the overall #1.

this for sure.

I still think IU gets the overall #1 seed if they win the B1G tourney.

combatcorpsmangulaw
03-13-2013, 09:38 AM
according to the eastern sportswriters: Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Indiana, Ohio State.

Strength of Schedule is a mechanism to keep 'elite' teams elite and smaller schools 'in their place'. If SOS is a major criteria in determining certain aspects of rating a school, the smaller universities are at a distinct disadvantage. WCC will never be 'a tough conference' compared to a number of other conferences according to the 'experts', for example.

I believe that each year should stand on its own --- wins on the road against good teams should and does hold weight. Good teams from prior years aren't necessarily always the best team every year going forward.

Gonzaga hasn't played Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio State this year so it's not a foregone conclusion that the Zags can't possibly be No 1 overall.

DixieZag
03-13-2013, 09:46 AM
I am iin the one seed but not overall one seed and I think we should be extremely happy with that result and not worry about the overall, there is not much difference in the overall seeding but I think there is a difference between one and two, particularly in the sweet sixteen game.

Mr Vulture
03-13-2013, 10:00 AM
Are we really discussing whether we are #1 seed again? There is no way that we aren't a number one seed, regardless of how the conference tournaments play out. In fact, I believe we will be the #1 overall seed if Indiana and Duke lose in their conference tournaments. Right now, the final #1 seed is between Kansas, Louisville, and Georgetown with Louisville having the inside track. Even if Kansas, Louisville, Duke, and Indiana win their conference tournaments we will still be a #1 seed.

combatcorpsmangulaw
03-13-2013, 01:05 PM
Are we really discussing whether we are #1 seed again? There is no way that we aren't a number one seed, regardless of how the conference tournaments play out. In fact, I believe we will be the #1 overall seed if Indiana and Duke lose in their conference tournaments. Right now, the final #1 seed is between Kansas, Louisville, and Georgetown with Louisville having the inside track. Even if Kansas, Louisville, Duke, and Indiana win their conference tournaments we will still be a #1 seed.

I wouldn't be so sure about GU being a lock on a number 1 seed. That's the point --- the East Coast feels as though it has the final say on who is who going into the Tournament.

Just because the Zags are the Number 1 seed now and deserve to be a Number 1 seed going into the tournament doesn't necessary mean that's it's a lock. Just wait and see.

RenoZag
03-13-2013, 03:23 PM
After Monday night's game, one of the talking heads on ESPN said: If the Zags aren't a one seed come Selection Sunday, it would be the first time the # 1 ranked team in the country was not a one seed. . .

I was feeling pretty good about that precedent until reading this thread.

VaBeachZAG
03-13-2013, 03:45 PM
I still feel pretty good about getting a 1 seed, despite this thread. Regardless of any pressure the committee may feel from the big conferences and the elite East, I don't think it will be willing to set a first time precedent of not giving a 1 seed to the number 1 ranked team on selection Sunday. It would totally undermine any value/confidence whatsoever in the polls. While we all know the polling process is probably flawed to some extent, they are still closely watched by everyone who follows college BB.

We will get a 1 seed, but will probably be last on the top line. I presume this means we wil likely have the toughest path of any of the 1 seeds. But, that's okay as long as we stay in the West!

Mr Vulture
03-13-2013, 04:45 PM
I understand the concerns but our numbers will be equal to or better than Kansas and Georgetown, even if they were to win their conference tournaments. I don't think any conference, including the Big 10, will have multiple #1 seeds. Based on the numbers it would be Duke (if they make the ACC Champ Game), Indiana (if they make the Big 10 Champ Game), Gonzaga, and the best rated (numbers wise) out of Louisville/Georgetown/Kansas. I think it would be the Big East winner if it were Louisville or Georgetown before it was Kansas. I really don't see any scenario where we aren't a 1 seed and with some help we could be the #1 overall seed (granted that would take Indiana/Duke/Louisville to all not win their conference tournaments).

GZag
03-13-2013, 05:08 PM
I watched the poll numbers and the assumptions of the experts for years. I watched Arizona finally fm one into their own ranking they deserved this year. Right off the bat, UNC was assumed to be a top 25 team by name only. Kentucky? Yes, name only. Miami? They throttled Duke, right. So we have a Duke now that has a three person offense and now they are great again?

I watched the Zags too. Look what they did to Deli. That was no accident, that is key defense. The problem with Duke is they have two possible Delis now. KO and Harris can handle Plumbline.

The question is, can they handle both of Dukes Delis? That is a tough call. They can't stop KO and Harris inside and Plumbline will be of little effect. Can our guards do something they have not done? Possibly with Hart and GBJ. Not by Pangos alone. Not by Stockton alone either. Maybe, Edi can play a key game? Or someone else. We need serious play from our point guard from offense, but he cannot keep up with the defense without a lot of luck.

That is assuming we end up against Duke. We have to play our very best game to beat them.

NumberCruncher
03-13-2013, 05:35 PM
But the fact is: they have the best resume. And it's not because they play in the ACC; It's because of their OOC (13-0 with multiple really-good wins). The R. Kelly factor is the kicker that virtually assures them the overall #1 regardless of how they do in their conference tourney.

After that, it's fairly close between Gonzaga, Louisville and Indiana.

I can make an excellent case that we should be rated better than Indiana. Their OOC SOS is awful (288 on KenPom). The Big10 is the best conference, but four losses (including two at home) is a strike against them. They lost to the same two teams we did plus they lost three others. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if they get rated higher than us if they win the Big10 tourney.

Louisville's OOC SOS is not bad, but our's is better. However, we lost two and they only lost one. Again, four losses in the Big East is not as good as being undefeated in the WCC. If they finish hot, then I'd give them the nod.

If any other team gets the top line instead of us, it will be a travesty.

Section 116
03-13-2013, 08:05 PM
Here's a bucket of cold water: Mike Boblinski, chairman of the selection committee throws his two cents in: "A year ago, I think the one line of the tournament and bracket was in pretty clear focus," said Bobinski, who is leaving Xavier to take over as Georgia Tech's AD after the tournament. "This year looks a little bit different. I anticipate there will be a number of teams we'll be considering and discussing for that one line of the bracket."

More:This year, Gonzaga is ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press rankings for the first time ever, but doesn't come from one of the glamour conferences. Second-ranked Duke is projected as the top team in the RPI, a crucial component in the selection committee process. Traditional powerhouses Indiana, Louisville, Georgetown and Kansas are also in contention for top seeds, with their final seeding likely dependent on how they do in their conference tournaments.

Link: http://news.yahoo.com/7-teams-may-running-ncaa-top-seeds-232847528--spt.html

Reborn
03-13-2013, 10:20 PM
I still feel pretty good about getting a 1 seed, despite this thread. Regardless of any pressure the committee may feel from the big conferences and the elite East, I don't think it will be willing to set a first time precedent of not giving a 1 seed to the number 1 ranked team on selection Sunday. It would totally undermine any value/confidence whatsoever in the polls. While we all know the polling process is probably flawed to some extent, they are still closely watched by everyone who follows college BB.

We will get a 1 seed, but will probably be last on the top line. I presume this means we wil likely have the toughest path of any of the 1 seeds. But, that's okay as long as we stay in the West!

Hold your footing, and don't stop believing. I'm with ya completely. There has been so much doubt on this board all year long, so why would that change as we approach Selection Sunday. Keep believing. We CAN do it, together.