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View Full Version : Zags move to #4 on KenPom



caduceus
02-20-2013, 10:34 PM
Huge jump in defensive efficiency to #26. Offensive efficiency remains hot at #4. Goes to show you how much Pomeroy weighs scoring margin (for good or bad) this year.

Also, RPI remains steady at #11. Continue winning the next 3 games and we should be hanging around #8 going into the conference tourney.

Resume continues to build with another top 100 RPI win tonight.

ZagMan in Philly
02-21-2013, 04:30 AM
And Kelly as the No. 1 offensive player, beat out Trey Burke :)

VinnyZag
02-21-2013, 07:39 AM
Holy Toledo, defensive efficiency is now under 90 points per 100 possessions. If they keep it there, that'd be the first time GU has has a defensive efficiency in the 80s in the 11 seasons that KenPom has tracked.

titopoet
02-21-2013, 08:26 AM
Huge jump in defensive efficiency to #26. Offensive efficiency remains hot at #4. Goes to show you how much Pomeroy weighs scoring margin (for good or bad) this year.

Also, RPI remains steady at #11. Continue winning the next 3 games and we should be hanging around #8 going into the conference tourney.

Resume continues to build with another top 100 RPI win tonight.

Kenpom values holding other teams down in shooting percentages, attempts per minutes, and FT attempts. GU dominating defense game yesterday push them under 90.00. Not only did SCU shoot a lousy percentage, they also attempted less shots that they normally do: 53 last night to 58.3 normally, meaning it took them longer to find a shot, and it was a bad shot. More performances like that means this is statistically the best Defensive team in Few's tenure.

NotoriousZ
02-21-2013, 10:47 AM
#4 on Kenpom = more validation for a one seed.

Keep it going, Zags!

UKWildcatsFan
02-21-2013, 10:49 AM
#4 on Kenpom = more validation for a one seed.

Keep it going, Zags!

Maybe, but maybe not. Kenpom also has Louisville at #3. They would probably have to win out the regular season in addition to winning the big East tournament to be in consideration.

tobizag
02-21-2013, 10:57 AM
it's kind of amazing to scroll through his rankings across the last decade...there's a very simple way to see how successful mr pomeroy has been at shaping the national conversation about the quality of teams:

take a gander at the past years' lists, and pay attention to the little number to the right of the team name. that's the tournament seed given the team by the committee. notice a pattern? those early years the seeds are far more sporadic, at least for the top 3 seeds, than they have been recently. many years the 4 #1 seeds were the top 4 kenpom teams.

bodes well for the zags

caduceus
02-21-2013, 01:01 PM
tobi, I think some of it is because he's been refining his algorithm also. He's made several changes to it.

Once and Future Zag
02-21-2013, 01:20 PM
tobi, I think some of it is because he's been refining his algorithm also. He's made several changes to it.

Only to improve its usefulness as a predictive model, though - that's te actual goal of his ratings.

It's a very different type of thing that he and Sagarin are doing, than any sort of "poll."

U Zig, I Zag
02-21-2013, 01:29 PM
good to seem them move up.

NumberCruncher
02-21-2013, 01:46 PM
it's kind of amazing to scroll through his rankings across the last decade...there's a very simple way to see how successful mr pomeroy has been at shaping the national conversation about the quality of teams:

take a gander at the past years' lists, and pay attention to the little number to the right of the team name. that's the tournament seed given the team by the committee. notice a pattern? those early years the seeds are far more sporadic, at least for the top 3 seeds, than they have been recently. many years the 4 #1 seeds were the top 4 kenpom teams.

bodes well for the zags

Yes, I've noticed that. And I agree; it bodes well.

Another thing I've noticed is: some teams with good Pomeroy ratings tend to lose more than others. Those teams also tend to get seeded lower in the tourney. Also bodes well.

I think Pomeroy's system is great for rating how good a team is, but it doesn't necessarily indicate what they've accomplished. So I've started rating teams on what I'm calling their body of work.

Here's how I do it.

Every game is scored by adding up 3 components:
Opponent quality score
Margin of victory score
Location score

A team's BOW is the total of all games.

All losses result in a negative score.
Wins over cupcakes, including non-D1 teams, also result in a negative score.

The opponent quality is based on Pomeroy rankings.
For wins, the range is +17.2 for beating the #1 team down to -17.5 for beating a non-D1 team.
For losses, the range is -0.1 for losing to the #1 team down to -35 for losing to a non-D1 team.

MOV is pace adjusted, limited to +30/-30 and scaled (non-linear) down to +10/-10 BOW points.

Location score is a sliding scale from +4 for winning on the road down to -4 for losing at home.



For example, the Zags got 18.1 for the home win over Santa Clara.
8.1 points for opponent quality
10 points for the MOV
0 points for winning at home


The Zags' worst score was the Illinois game: -12.1
-2.7 for opponent quality
-5.4 for MOV
-4 for losing at home


As of today, the Zags are at #4 with a score of 284.1

There is a group of 12 that have separated from the rest of the pack:

1. Duke
2. Indiana
3. Miami
4. Zags
5. Florida
6. Kansas
7. Louisville
8. Arizona
9. Syracuse
10. New Mexico
11. Michigan
12. Michigan St

caduceus
02-23-2013, 11:22 PM
Offensive efficiency steady at #4.
Defensive efficiency jumped #26 → #24.

Oregonzagnut
02-23-2013, 11:28 PM
Ken Pom strength is a statistical power ranking the selection committee does use to seed.

If we are #4-#6 we have a good chance at being #1 seed n SLC. We still have at least 3 games so let put the pedal to the metal and grind the WCC into pulp and not even feel bad about it.

wow.

bartruff1
02-24-2013, 05:33 AM
I really like your list...it matches my eye test...I still think Miami belongs there...

NumberCruncher
02-24-2013, 10:03 AM
Here's the top 20 including games through 2/23

1 Duke
2 Indiana
3 Gonzaga
4 Florida
5 Louisville
6 Miami
7 New Mexico
8 Arizona
9 Kansas
10 Syracuse
11 Michigan
12 Michigan St
13 Georgetown
14 Wichita St
15 Minnesota
16 Creighton
17 Wisconsin
18 Colorado St
19 Ohio St
20 Marquette

Zags are only one tenth of a point in front of Florida.

The gap between 12th and 13th has narrowed due to strong wins by Georgetown and Wichita St. while MSU was idle.

exclusivelee
02-24-2013, 11:28 AM
Here's the top 20 including games through 2/23

1 Duke
2 Indiana
3 Gonzaga
4 Florida
5 Louisville
6 Miami
7 New Mexico
8 Arizona
9 Kansas
10 Syracuse
11 Michigan
12 Michigan St
13 Georgetown
14 Wichita St
15 Minnesota
16 Creighton
17 Wisconsin
18 Colorado St
19 Ohio St
20 Marquette

Zags are only one tenth of a point in front of Florida.

The gap between 12th and 13th has narrowed due to strong wins by Georgetown and Wichita St. while MSU was idle.

Got a copy of your spreadsheet/website displaying your data?

I'd like to see if possible. Thanks!

NumberCruncher
02-24-2013, 11:52 AM
Got a copy of your spreadsheet/website displaying your data?

I'd like to see if possible. Thanks!


Not on any website.

Be glad to share my spreadsheet. Send me a PM and I will respond.

Ekrub
02-24-2013, 05:39 PM
good stuff NC.

UberZagFan
02-24-2013, 06:51 PM
This is the type of analysis Uber was speaking about when he commented in the other thread about GU's improved defense.

Great to see GU drop below 90 on defense. Wow. That is pretty historic. And something that is pretty consistently in the resume of a NC.

ridgebackzag
02-24-2013, 08:00 PM
Here's the top 20 including games through 2/23

1 Duke
2 Indiana
3 Gonzaga
4 Florida
5 Louisville
6 Miami
7 New Mexico
8 Arizona
9 Kansas
10 Syracuse
11 Michigan
12 Michigan St
13 Georgetown
14 Wichita St
15 Minnesota
16 Creighton
17 Wisconsin
18 Colorado St
19 Ohio St
20 Marquette

Zags are only one tenth of a point in front of Florida.

The gap between 12th and 13th has narrowed due to strong wins by Georgetown and Wichita St. while MSU was idle.

If you are sharing, you should upload your spreadsheet to Google Drive and set it as read only. That would allow us to view it in it's updated state at all times. Are you familiar with Google Drive?

NumberCruncher
02-25-2013, 08:36 AM
If you are sharing, you should upload your spreadsheet to Google Drive and set it as read only. That would allow us to view it in it's updated state at all times. Are you familiar with Google Drive?

Haven't used it, but shouldn't be a big deal. I want to clean the spreadsheet up a bit and add some more teams. I'll start a new thread when it's available.

NumberCruncher
02-25-2013, 09:17 AM
My spreadsheet has data extracted from www.kenpom.com copyrighted content. According to section F of their terms of use, I'm allowed to use that on my personal hard drive or give a cited copy to a non-commercial third party, but I am not allowed to publish the content in any form.

So I won't be putting it on Google Drive.

007Zag
02-25-2013, 11:01 AM
NC, isn't GUBoards a non-commercial third party?

UberZagFan
02-25-2013, 11:09 AM
NC, isn't GUBoards a non-commercial third party?

Doubt it. See those ads at the top of every page? Somebody is making money on this site.

NumberCruncher
02-25-2013, 11:14 AM
Doubt it. See those ads at the top of every page? Somebody is making money on this site.

That was my thinking as well, Uber.

Zagnailler
02-25-2013, 11:43 AM
tobi, I think some of it is because he's been refining his algorithm also. He's made several changes to it.

One of the adjustments has been the introduction of the "luck factor". I have read the explanation he has but it has always struck me as fishy

caduceus
02-27-2013, 01:57 AM
Zags remain at #4 overall, but have passively moved up the ranks in efficiencies today:

Offensive efficiency is up one (passing Florida) to #3.
Defensive efficiency moves up one to #23.

ridgebackzag
02-27-2013, 05:43 AM
My spreadsheet has data extracted from www.kenpom.com copyrighted content. According to section F of their terms of use, I'm allowed to use that on my personal hard drive or give a cited copy to a non-commercial third party, but I am not allowed to publish the content in any form.

So I won't be putting it on Google Drive.

Ah, I understand the predicament. Either way, your work is appreciated!

CDC84
02-28-2013, 09:51 AM
I think every national champion has been under 20 in both offensive and defensive effiency since Pomeroy started these ratings. GU is a lock to be a top 10 offensive team. I would love to see that defensive efficiency get into the teens. It's at 23 right now.

Once and Future Zag
02-28-2013, 11:19 AM
Going into the St Mary's game GU was #46 (IIRC) - so knocking 20+ spots off that ranking is pretty good in that amount of time.

NumberCruncher
02-28-2013, 11:52 AM
The rankings we see for previous years include the NCAA tourney. I don't have the data on it, but it's highly likely that the teams who were successful in the tourney improved their rankings during the tourney. So some of them may have been outside the top 20 going in.

We've definitely been trending in the right direction. Holding St Mary's highly efficient offense to 60 points on their court was huge. If we are to go deep in the tourney, we will almost assuredly improve that ranking in the process.

Once and Future Zag
02-28-2013, 11:56 AM
The rankings we see for previous years include the NCAA tourney. I don't have the data on it, but it's highly likely that the teams who were successful in the tourney improved their rankings during the tourney. So some of them may have been outside the top 20 going in.


While that's true that there's some shifting, as a long time follower of KenPom, there's not really a major upheaval as I recollect.

NumberCruncher
02-28-2013, 11:58 AM
Here's the standings including games of 2/27

Louisville jumped us last night with their road win over DePaul.
Zags will jump into second with a win tonight.


1 Duke
2 Indiana
3 Louisville
4 Gonzaga
5 New Mexico
6 Florida
7 Kansas
8 Miami Fl
9 Arizona
10 Michigan
11 Syracuse
12 Georgetown
13 Michigan St
14 Minnesota
15 Creighton
16 Wichita St
17 Wisconsin
18 UCLA
19 Pittsburgh
20 Ohio St
21 Marquette
22 Colorado St
23 NC St
24 Colorado
25 Notre Dame
26 Saint Louis
27 UNLV
28 Oklahoma St
29 VCU
30 St Mary's

exclusivelee
03-09-2013, 11:45 PM
After LMU game, still at #4 overall (Slim gap over Duke though)

Offensive efficiency dropped (Duke jumped us) from #3 → #4.
Defensive efficiency jumped from #23 → #20.

I like the top 20 combo of offensive & defensive efficiency.

ZagNative
03-10-2013, 01:23 AM
After LMU game, still at #4 overall (Slim gap over Duke though)

Offensive efficiency dropped (Duke jumped us) from #3 → #4.
Defensive efficiency jumped from #23 → #20.

I like the top 20 combo of offensive & defensive efficiency.Defensive efficiency jump is interesting.

NumberCruncher
03-10-2013, 12:26 PM
Includes games of 3/10

Zags have been running between 2nd and 6th.
3rd, 4th & 5th are very close right now, and it looks like the Zags will probably drop to 6th or 7th after all of the tourneys.

Having to play LMU instead of SCU last night could easily make a difference of two or three spots in the end.


1 Duke
2 Louisville
3 Gonzaga
4 Indiana
5 Florida
6 New Mexico
7 Kansas
8 Miami Fl
9 Michigan
10 Arizona
11 Georgetown
12 Michigan St
13 Creighton
14 Syracuse
15 Marquette
16 Ohio St
17 Pittsburgh
18 UCLA
19 Wichita St
20 Colorado St
21 Minnesota
22 VCU
23 Oklahoma St
24 Saint Louis
25 St Mary's
26 Memphis
27 Notre Dame
28 NC St
29 UNLV
30 Kansas St

TokyoZag
03-11-2013, 10:39 PM
I'm seeing our defensive rank up at 13 after the SMC game. What a jump!

CDC84
03-11-2013, 10:49 PM
I have to believe that is partly due to no major conference teams playing tonight. Still, there's a good chance GU could end up with a DE in the teens, which is the recipe for a national champion.

exclusivelee
03-11-2013, 11:37 PM
I'm seeing our defensive rank up at 13 after the SMC game. What a jump!

+1

I made sure to wait till after midnight to check.

There's a big clump of teams hovering around our adjusted defensive efficiency #. We got 3 Big East teams directly ahead of us that know they want to let us slip in the top 10.

caduceus
03-11-2013, 11:43 PM
RPI is now up to #6. (http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html) Big jump from 11.

FuManShoes
03-12-2013, 05:49 AM
As of 3/12,the Zags own the 4th most efficient offense and the 13th most efficient defense. Those, my friends, are title-contender numbers. I'm becoming a believer with my head as well as my hart.

ZagLawGrad
03-12-2013, 06:49 AM
Glad to see this. Amazing all the criticism of the Zags nationally out there now that the bigs have had to move over and share the spotlight.

ZagMania
03-12-2013, 06:59 AM
Off-topic but can someone help me out in an argument with a Dukie and remind me of the Zags all time record vs the ACC?

Once and Future Zag
03-12-2013, 07:12 AM
Off-topic but can someone help me out in an argument with a Dukie and remind me of the Zags all time record vs the ACC?

GU is 13-6 all time against the current lineup of ACC teams.

CDC84
03-15-2013, 09:57 AM
Thru Thursday's games the Zags are still #4 in the Pomeroy standings.

They are 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

caduceus
03-16-2013, 11:49 PM
After Saturday's games, the Zags are holding steady at #4 overall. Now #3 (was 4) in offensive rating, and #13 (was 14) in defensive rating.

ZagMan in Philly
03-17-2013, 03:59 AM
And K.O. has taken over the #1 rank offensive player according to Kenpom.

DixieZag
03-17-2013, 04:38 AM
FWIW and it may well be nothing:

SCU moved up to 96th in RPI last night according to CBS real time, giving us 2 more top 100 wins

Pacific becomes another tournament team giving us, well, another tournament team win in addition to Davidson

Zagdawg
03-17-2013, 07:41 AM
Awesome! Every little bit helps.

gamagin
03-17-2013, 08:02 AM
Huge jump in defensive efficiency to #26. Offensive efficiency remains hot at #4. Goes to show you how much Pomeroy weighs scoring margin (for good or bad) this year.

Also, RPI remains steady at #11. Continue winning the next 3 games and we should be hanging around #8 going into the conference tourney.

Resume continues to build with another top 100 RPI win tonight.

This tells me the stars just keep aligning for us -- all before the dance. So perfect timing, too. For a 1-1' rank & seed.

You can' t plan luck. You can be prepared.

I believe we are ready for the moment when preparation meets opportunity.

Even your great stats seem to indicate this as well, it appears. All good.

NumberCruncher
03-17-2013, 12:11 PM
Here are the final BOW seedings. I have modified the system a little to add more weight to wins against the best teams and also add more negative weight to losses. My goal was to try and predict how the committe will seed, so we'll see later today how I did. I'm ignoring the teams that will be seeded at the bottom because I just don't care enough.

1 Louisville, Duke, Gonzaga, Indiana
2 New Mexico, Florida, Kansas, Miami Fl
3 Michigan, Georgetown, Ohio St, Michigan St
4 Syracuse, Arizona, Creighton, Saint Louis
5 Memphis, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Kansas St
6 Marquette, Colorado St, VCU, UCLA
7 Oklahoma St, NC St, Notre Dame, UNLV
8 Wichita St, Butler, St Mary's, North Carolina
9 Oregon, Minnesota, San Diego St, Missouri
10 Cincinnati, Colorado, Illinois, Mississippi
11 Boise St, California, Akron, Iowa St
12 Temple, Mid Tennessee, Oklahoma, Iowa