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View Full Version : Vegas line GU/STM



ezcure17
02-13-2013, 11:15 AM
Opens at St. Mary's -1

GO ZAGS!!!!

LongIslandZagFan
02-13-2013, 11:16 AM
Basically a push.

CaliforniaZaggin'
02-13-2013, 12:00 PM
Not too often are unranked teams favored over a Top 5 team.

combatcorpsmangulaw
02-13-2013, 12:25 PM
SMC has a variety of reasons to be tough, some of which:

1. Home court advantage;
2. Lost in the Kennel earlier this season;
3. Dellavadova's last game against the Zags at home;
4. SMC's win over No. 5 team enhances their RPI;
5. Bragging rights going into the WCC Tournament;
6. Puts a 'kink' in Gonzaga's season;
7. Beat us in the WCC Tournament, in overtime, last year.

This is going to be a great game.

Go Zags!!

KStyles
02-13-2013, 01:00 PM
Offshore (http://www.covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=848865&sport=ncb) it's already moved to SMC +1

coolhandzag
02-13-2013, 01:01 PM
The spread is intended to get an approximate 50/50 money split. Not to illustrate what they believe the difference in the final score will be.

It is bascially a push.

DixieZag
02-13-2013, 01:06 PM
The spread is intended to get an approximate 50/50 money split. Not to illustrate what they believe the difference in the final score will be.

It is bascially a push.

True. And important.

I think it is split by large numbers of Zag fans, large number of uninformed people who see the #5 in a 50/50 game and think it is easy money

versus

The smart money that know this series well and know there isn't all that much separation between Zags/SMC

madness
02-13-2013, 02:16 PM
I disagree. I think there is a distinct separation between the two teams in the paint.

My guess is that Vegas is guaging this game similar to the Butler game...since Zags didn't win in a hostile arena, they set the line almost even and hope the money comes in on the Zags and they want SMC to come up with the victory.

I for one, will be taking the Zags

IrishZagFan
02-13-2013, 02:34 PM
Vegas wants 50% of the bets on each side of the line because of the way they pay out the bets.

If you bet $10.00 on GU and win, you get paid $19.00 back.

So if you have 100 bets on GU and 100 bets on SMC, Vegas takes in 200 x $10.00 = $2,000.00

They pay back the 100 winning bets at $19.00 = $1,900.00 They keep the 100 losing bets.

Net profit of $2,000 - $1,900 = $100.00

Multiply that by 10,000 or 100,000 every game and you can see why they keep putting up bigger and bigger buildings all the time.

Good side of the business to be in, no matter who wins or loses in the game, Vegas still wins!

jake
02-13-2013, 02:43 PM
The spread is intended to get an approximate 50/50 money split. Not to illustrate what they believe the difference in the final score will be.

It is bascially a push.

Some games are obviously going to be slightly shaded, but those goals generally aren't that far apart. If there was huge divergence between the two, there would be a lot more people hitting over 55% on their bets. I watched a panel a while back with the Director of Race and Sports Data from Cantor who stated in reality they rarely get 50/50 on a game, and that while in some sense it would be nice that it is also somewhat of a myth. Link takes you to the part I'm referring to. It's not that they don't shade lines, but they are also very confident in their algorithms.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BLH8yCY7Ais#t=1355s

gamagin
02-13-2013, 03:11 PM
Opens at St. Mary's -1

GO ZAGS!!!!

I don't see any of the big books setting lines yet. Curiious who it is here ? thanks.

KStyles
02-13-2013, 03:13 PM
I don't see any of the big books setting lines yet. Curiious who it is here ? thanks.

I'd guess betonline.ag (composite line history linked in my post, Vegas books will be added to the offshore books as they set lines), as they're usually the ones with the first lines up (and they opened at SMC -1).


Offshore (http://www.covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=848865&sport=ncb) it's already moved to SMC +1

kclubfounder
02-13-2013, 03:14 PM
I disagree. I think there is a distinct separation between the two teams in the paint.

My guess is that Vegas is guaging this game similar to the Butler game...since Zags didn't win in a hostile arena, they set the line almost even and hope the money comes in on the Zags and they want SMC to come up with the victory.

I for one, will be taking the Zags

A common misconception.

Vegas cares about one thing and one thing only when they set a line. They are trying to set it so that 50% of the money goes on each side. The end.

madness
02-13-2013, 03:15 PM
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

Shows a composite list of the posted lines. Sportsbook has it as PK right now.

madness
02-13-2013, 03:16 PM
A common misconception.

Vegas cares about one thing and one thing only when they set a line. They are trying to set it so that 50% of the money goes on each side. The end.

Yah, I guess I didn't communicate my point correctly. My bad. I bet heavily and understand how it works...gracias

gamagin
02-13-2013, 03:18 PM
I'd guess betonline.ag (composite line history linked in my post, Vegas books will be added to the offshore books as they set lines), as they're usually the ones with the first lines up (and they opened at SMC -1).

it'll be interesting to see what the big dogs and the real money betters do with this game, if anything.

madness
02-13-2013, 03:19 PM
Another major point for those of you interested: Zags cover Thursday night games.

Obviously there is no scientific evidence here. It is a trend. I have been following it. I would expect Zags minus 4-7 on Saturday and I would expect USF to cover. Just the way the spread has gone in 2013.

kclubfounder
02-13-2013, 03:21 PM
Yah, I guess I didn't communicate my point correctly. My bad. I bet heavily and understand how it works...gracias

I used to bet heavily.

But alas, thanks to a wife and 3 kids, I was forced to give up that fun, but expensive, pastime.

DixieZag
02-13-2013, 03:26 PM
Another major point for those of you interested: Zags cover Thursday night games.

Obviously there is no scientific evidence here. It is a trend. I have been following it. I would expect Zags minus 4-7 on Saturday and I would expect USF to cover. Just the way the spread has gone in 2013.

I happened to notice that just sort of inuitively the other day. They outplay themselves on Thursday and then underperform on Saturday. LMU Thrs - USD Sat, Pepp Thr - LMU Sat.

All the more reason for those that are pretty confident about tomorrow night and absolutely terrified of Saturday night.

MDABE80
02-13-2013, 04:58 PM
Gonzaga at
St. Mary's

No lines.


-110 -1
-110 +1

-110 -1
-110 +1


We are the "-1" from 5 dimes and Bettingonline.

KStyles
02-14-2013, 02:42 PM
St. Mary's up to as much as a 1.5 point favorite at some books (5dimes, BetOnline.ag). If you're planning on taking GU, +1.5 might be about as good as it gets. Total down to 142 or 141.5 as well.

http://www.covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=848865&sport=ncb

Edit: Spoke too soon, up to GU +2 at 5dimes. GU ML at +115 with reduced juice.

Looks like 61% of the public is on GU, so big money from the sharps on SMC must be causing the RLM.

ZagMan in Philly
02-14-2013, 03:01 PM
Prove them wrong Zags..

adoptedzag
02-14-2013, 03:47 PM
St. Mary's up to as much as a 1.5 point favorite at some books (5dimes, BetOnline.ag). If you're planning on taking GU, +1.5 might be about as good as it gets. Total down to 142 or 141.5 as well.

http://www.covers.com/sports/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=848865&sport=ncb

Edit: Spoke too soon, up to GU +2 at 5dimes. GU ML at +115 with reduced juice.

Looks like 61% of the public is on GU, so big money from the sharps on SMC must be causing the RLM.

http://i.qkme.me/3qfzt0.jpg

75Zag
02-14-2013, 03:51 PM
The ONLY reason to bet this game is because you are a loyal GU or SMU fan. The best way to lose money betting sports is to bet on sentimental favorite teams. Cheer with your heart, bet with your wallet. My wallet is staying closed on this one.

Go Bulldogs!