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tobizag
02-13-2013, 09:17 AM
michigan state went into last night's game vs michigan sitting below gonzaga on lunardi's S-Curve. gonzaga was at #7, and michigan state wasn't in the top 10. however, after beating michigan, sparty moved to 6 and michigan to 7 on the s-curve line, pushing GU to #8...the final 2 seed spot.

the teams currently behind us on the s-curve highlight this problem as the season winds down. louisville, syracuse, kansas, new mexico, ohio state, and wisconsin all have weaker resumes as of today, but could easily rip off a few wins in conference or during conf tourney time against teams ahead of us. the sad reality is that we will continue to be pushed out.

if we belonged to a major conference, and saw this kind of attrition around us, we'd be methodically bumped up. unfortunately we have seen our peak, and the narrative around SOS and the circular logic that builds RPI means GU can only pray that those teams currently ahead of us on the S-curve keep winning. the best we can possibly muster will be a #2 seed, but i suspect a 3 or even a westerly 4 is in our future.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/8942917/bracketology-michigan-falls-latest-s-curve-college-basketball

GoZags
02-13-2013, 09:21 AM
michigan state went into last night's game vs michigan sitting below gonzaga on lunardi's S-Curve. gonzaga was at #7, and michigan state wasn't in the top 10. however, after beating michigan, sparty moved to 6 and michigan to 7 on the s-curve line, pushing GU to #8...the final 2 seed spot.

the teams currently behind us on the s-curve highlight this problem as the season winds down. louisville, syracuse, kansas, new mexico, ohio state, and wisconsin all have weaker resumes as of today, but could easily rip off a few wins in conference or during conf tourney time against teams ahead of us. the sad reality is that we will continue to be pushed out.

if we belonged to a major conference, and saw this kind of attrition around us, we'd be methodically bumped up. unfortunately we have seen our peak, and the narrative around SOS and the circular logic that builds RPI means GU can only pray that those teams currently ahead of us on the S-curve keep winning. the best we can possibly muster will be a #2 seed, but i suspect a 3 or even a westerly 4 is in our future.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/8942917/bracketology-michigan-falls-latest-s-curve-college-basketball

Good thing Lunardi's bracket and S-Curve is just for fun and doesn't have anything to do with what the committee does on Selection Sunday. Although Jaime Z will have to "recuse" himself when it comes time for Gonzaga to be discussed -- I have no doubt that the other Committee members will know everything there is to know about the Zags when it comes time to put them in their final slot.

But first thing's first.

Beat St. Mary's.

Please.

DixieZag
02-13-2013, 09:34 AM
If we keep winning we will slowly move up in the polls.

If we move up to 2 or 3 - - or 1, it will almost shame the committee into placing us very high.

I get tired of the people like Davis who keep telling themselves that no matter what happens, we cannot get a quality win to push us up here on out. Said enough times in an echo chamber it becomes a self fullfilling prophecy.

Oregonzagnut
02-13-2013, 09:44 AM
If we win out and the other teams mix and match their losses evenly so that no other team has less than 4 losses, Gonzaga could possibly. But I agree, it isn't dependent on us winning out. It is purely dependent on others losing to bottom dwellers.

Have to beat St Marys AND dominate our tournament so that the selection committee remembers greatness.

Must.
Win.
Thursday.

gozagswoohoo
02-13-2013, 09:55 AM
"Just win baby" Abraham Lincoln

Oregonzagnut
02-13-2013, 10:09 AM
"Just win baby" Abraham Lincoln

But don't go see "Our American Cousin", Abe. The play isn't worth the price.

JPtheBeasta
02-13-2013, 10:48 AM
"Just win baby" Abraham Lincoln

"70% of Internet quotes are made up."
- Abraham Lincoln

JPtheBeasta
02-13-2013, 10:54 AM
So.... Moving forward, we need to root for the teams behind us in the top 20 to lose to those in front of us(?). We don't want the teams behind us to build a resume and squeeze us out. Best case scenario, our RPI is only going down, correct?

cjm720
02-13-2013, 11:03 AM
Objectively I agree with the OP, but if we can win out the Committee can use its power of subjectivity to place us wherever. Historically speaking that hasn't been a favorable seed and/or location. I think this year's different (again, if we can win out).

titopoet
02-13-2013, 11:11 AM
Good thing Lunardi's bracket and S-Curve is just for fun and doesn't have anything to do with what the committee does on Selection Sunday. Although Jaime Z will have to "recuse" himself when it comes time for Gonzaga to be discussed -- I have no doubt that the other Committee members will know everything there is to know about the Zags when it comes time to put them in their final slot.

But first thing's first.

Beat St. Mary's.

Please.

You put a lot of stock in the 36 best bracketologist http://bracketproject.50webs.com/rankings.html

caduceus
02-13-2013, 11:14 AM
So.... Moving forward, we need to root for the teams behind us in the top 20 to lose to those in front of us(?). We don't want the teams behind us to build a resume and squeeze us out. Best case scenario, our RPI is only going down, correct?

Not necessarily. If the Zags run the table and end up 30-2 (unlikely), expected RPI would be #5-6. At 28-4, it would be around #10. Depends on who we match up in the conference tourney, and how our prior opponents fare as well.

Jakester425
02-13-2013, 11:58 AM
#2 Seed in SLC or #3 Seed in San Jose...thats all I want for Christmas.

Kiddwell
02-13-2013, 12:05 PM
GU's chances at a #1 Seed fell off the Edge of the World when we dropped ("AHHHHHHHH!") that game at Butler. :mecry:

Our best chance is a #2 Seed. Kiddwell three-quarter expects a #3 Seed.


:[

tobizag
02-13-2013, 12:55 PM
Objectively I agree with the OP, but if we can win out the Committee can use its power of subjectivity to place us wherever. Historically speaking that hasn't been a favorable seed and/or location. I think this year's different (again, if we can win out).

+1

if we assume the zags continue their winning ways, then it definitely will be a question of what the committee will tolerate and what statement they want to make. remember when UW was granted the overall #1???

so yes, i agree that the subjectivity of the committee is the wild card, and there is certainly reason to believe that this year is different than years past.

JPtheBeasta
02-13-2013, 01:33 PM
Not necessarily. If the Zags run the table and end up 30-2 (unlikely), expected RPI would be #5-6. At 28-4, it would be around #10. Depends on who we match up in the conference tourney, and how our prior opponents fare as well.

That puts a 2-seed within reach then.

SweetOnionZag
02-13-2013, 01:42 PM
#2 Seed in SLC or #3 Seed in San Jose...thats all I want for Christmas.

Forget Christmas............I wouldn't know how to act

IrishZagFan
02-13-2013, 01:42 PM
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzbyig0pln1r09icno1_500.jpg

surfmonkey89
02-13-2013, 03:58 PM
Who cares.

Beat St. Mary's.

JPtheBeasta
02-13-2013, 04:50 PM
Who cares.

Beat St. Mary's.

I just had Deja vu.

jimmycarter
02-13-2013, 05:11 PM
If you offered me a contract guaranteeing the Zags as a 3-seed out West...I'd sign it today. What's the real, practical difference between a 2 and a 3? I'd just like to avoid being in that 4-seed/5-seed branch of the bracket.

zagamatic
02-13-2013, 05:29 PM
First thing's first. Win OUR league & win OUR tournament. After that, quite frankly I don't want a "1" seed. Reason being is that you end up with the winner of the 8/9 game which is usually a BCS team that's had an up and down year and has usually gotten hot enough at the end of the year/conference tournament to warrant an invite. Gimme the winner of a 7/10 or 6/11 game anyday

ZagaZags
02-13-2013, 08:43 PM
Are pretty much the same.

Zagineer
02-13-2013, 09:37 PM
who cares.
Beat st. Mary's.

+1

.

mgadfly
02-14-2013, 06:02 AM
You put a lot of stock in the 36 best bracketologist http://bracketproject.50webs.com/rankings.html

That is a pretty cool site. One thing that really stands out to me is how the information available to bracketologists has increased the accuracy each year.

For example, Joe's "332" score last year would have been the second best score of all the bracketologist's projections in years 2006 through 2011. The only score better in the first six years was a 333 once.

Then, last year the average score jumps to 327.2.

Zagcity
02-14-2013, 06:29 AM
"Just win baby" Abraham Lincoln

Was'nt that Socrates :confused:

exclusivelee
02-15-2013, 08:05 AM
If you want to see a lame bracket, look no further than Statsheet & their new bracket projections today (2/15) (http://zagsball.com/gonzaga-basketball/statseed-update/statsheet-projects-gonzaga-as-ncaa-tournament-three-seed-02-15-2013)

After Monday's games (2/11), they had us as a 2 seed & Arizona as a 3 seed (http://zagsball.com/gonzaga-basketball/statseed-update/statsheet-projects-gonzaga-as-ncaa-tournament-two-seed-02-12-2013). They had Syracuse as a 2 seed, as well.

But after Thursdays games, they move Arizona up to a 2 seed (they lost to Colorado last night), move us down to a 3 seed, & keep Syracuse as a 2 seed (they lost to UConn on Wednesday).

caduceus
02-15-2013, 08:30 AM
If you want to see a lame bracket, look no further than Statsheet & their new bracket projections today (2/15) (http://zagsball.com/gonzaga-basketball/statseed-update/statsheet-projects-gonzaga-as-ncaa-tournament-three-seed-02-15-2013)

After Monday's games (2/11), they had us as a 2 seed & Arizona as a 3 seed (http://zagsball.com/gonzaga-basketball/statseed-update/statsheet-projects-gonzaga-as-ncaa-tournament-two-seed-02-12-2013). They had Syracuse as a 2 seed, as well.

But after Thursdays games, they move Arizona up to a 2 seed (they lost to Colorado last night), move us down to a 3 seed, & keep Syracuse as a 2 seed (they lost to UConn on Wednesday).

Bear in mind that Statsheet's bracket "predictions" (and all of their game article type postings) are entirely computer generated. Since there's a significant human element to selection/seeding, it's never going to be that accurate.

caduceus
02-15-2013, 08:36 AM
Here's one guy's thoughts from Basketball Predictions (http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2013/02/colorado-avenges-their-controversial.html) regarding the implications of last night's game and potential selection/seeding for GU and SMC:


#5 Gonzaga 77, St. Mary's 60
Gonzaga did not have an answer for Matthew Dellavedova for most of the night. He finished with 22 points and 7 assists. The problem for St. Mary's is that they couldn't stop, well, anybody. Gonzaga had a 59.4 eFG% and 1.26 PPP. Gary Bell, Jr led the Zags with 20 points (on 6-for-10 shooting) and Kevin Pangos poured in 18. Kelly Olynyk was relatively quiet with 17, though his defensive presence did help limit the St. Mary's front line.

The Gaels have a number of strong outside shooters, but once they fell behind in this game they almost stopped passing the ball inside the arc. They launched 35 three-pointers in this game, the most they've attempted in a game since they fired 40 against North Carolina A&T on December 15, 2011. With St. Mary's players not named Dellavedova hitting only 26% behind the arc, that just wasn't a sustainable strategy.

The Zags are getting a lot of hype as a potential 1 seed in March. The problem is that they're really just moving up in the polls due to inertia - the quality wins aren't really there. They have beaten Oklahoma State. Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, BYU and St. Mary's (twice). All of those wins are good, but nothing really blows you away. Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE was sitting at 13th coming into this game. So the Zags are in good shape for a 2 or 3 seed, but they're going to need some help to earn a 1 seed. Their only chance is to win out and then hope that there aren't four strong 1 seed cases from the BCS conferences. For example, they'll be rooting for Kansas, Duke and Miami to fall in their respective conference tournaments. The Zags will play their next game on Saturday, at San Francisco.

St. Mary's came into this game ranked 21st in Pomeroy and 27th in the Sagarin PREDICTOR, but their at-large resume has been severely damaged by their soft schedule .They are 21-5, but have bad losses to Pacific and Georgia Tech, with only one decent win (BYU). Their Sagarin ELO_SCORE should remain in the Top 50, but they lack a single RPI Top 50 win. The Gaels will get home games against BYU and Creighton, and they'll need to win at least one of those games (and probably both) to earn an at-large bid. Up next is a road game at Loyola-Marymount, on Saturday.

novazag2
02-15-2013, 09:04 AM
The question is how many losses will it take for those in front of us to drop below us. Only the committee members know that.

JPtheBeasta
02-15-2013, 09:17 AM
With the parity going on and the multiple teams ranked below us that are knocking on the door, my worry is that we get squeezed out of a 2 seed. A 1-seed is such a long shot in my opinion, I would rather the guys in front of us keep winning if it means they stifle the ones behind us. For example, I would like Indiana to just run the table if it means the Michigans and Wisconsin drop.

We are the Boise St (football) of basketball this year, hanging on for dear life and hoping BCS teams with "bigger" wins bump us down.

MickMick
02-15-2013, 09:23 AM
A long time ago I adopted the philosophy that anything greater than a four seed is gravy.


Seeding has diminishing returns. The second game is always tough and the third game is brutally tough regardless of where a team is seeded.

I'm more interested in how individual teams match up than seeding. Playing close to home with a protected seed is a given if GU wins out. That is a great position to be in. The rest is all fluff.

adoptedzag
02-15-2013, 09:25 AM
A long time ago I adopted the philosophy that anything greater than a four seed is gravy.


Seeding has diminishing returns. The second game is always tough and the third game is brutally tough regardless of where a team is seeded.

I'm more interested in how individual teams match up than seeding. Playing close to home with a protected seed is a given if GU wins out. That is a great position to be in. The rest is all fluff.

qft!

ridgebackzag
02-15-2013, 09:27 AM
Damned if we do, damned if we don't. Maybe we should schedule a decent OOC opponent in January or February from now on

Chicken Ball
02-15-2013, 09:47 AM
What this points out is that, although we play a really good OOC sched, filled wi good teams, we never really play great teams. For a one seed, we need to play and beat great teams, the perennially top 5 type teams: Duke, KU, UK, Indiana, Mich St, (normally) UNC, etc. otherwise, a two seed is probably our ceiling.