RPI and Future Out of Conference Scheduling

[Gozags99]

I'll preface this post by acknowledging that, overall, Gonzaga regularly has one of the tougher (and best) non-conference schedules in the nation. I do not have experience pulling a schedule together, which I imagine is a very complex and difficult task . . . BUT there is always room for improvement.

Some teams from the Missouri Valley and Mountain West (and other conferences) have successfully found recipes to enhance their RPI profile to the extent possible. My belief is that the key ingredient is to avoid non-conference opponents with RPIs of 200+.

The Zags can obviously not avoid the fact that, each year, the bottom 3 or 4 teams in the WCC are consistently around 200 or below. That means 6-8 conference games each year will be against opponents with terrible RPIs. Arguably, this is the equivalent of a team from one of the Big 6 conferences that schedules many cupcakes in the out of conference schedule. (One can argue that the rest of the WCC needs to step up its out of conference scheduling, but again, that is out of Gonzaga's control)

This season:

185 Pepperdine
232 Loyola Marymount
236 Portland

Gonzaga can control its out of conference schedule. Here are the three scheduled games I question this year:

246 South Dakota
271 Campbell
275 Southern Utah

One might argue that nobody has the foresight on future records when scheduling, but it had to be known that these three particular teams would likely be poor performers. In my opinion, games against this level of competition are not productive and do not improve the team for the long-run (the Zags play two exhibition games to warm up, and the bench has plenty of opportunity to play at the end of conference games).

My wish is not to substitute games like this with top ranked teams (it is not easy to get home-and-home games with upper echelon teams, regardless). Rather, I would love to see these games substituted with quality, regional teams with decent RPIs . . . teams that we all know will be decent by the end of the year and toward the top of their respective conferences. Teams that have a shot to make the NCAA Tournament and would love the chance to play Gonzaga. These matchups would be likely wins for the Zags, but spirited and competitive games, nonetheless.

Examples:

- Most teams from the Mountain West Conference
- 67 North Dakota State
- 69 South Dakota State
- 78 New Mexico State
- 99 Long Beach State (Monson, anyone?)
- 118 Montana (they have found consistency)
- 132 Nevada

The Zags are currently sitting at #12 in the RPI. I have not done my homework (and I acknowledge that this is the crucial piece) to determine the impact of these 3 games and calculate a "what if" scenario assuming a substitution to three teams with RPIs between 50 and 100.

[MBAGael]

The good news is you, and every other team in the WCC, can get rid of your worst two RPI games and replace them with Pacific (expected 137 RPI this year). If every team in the WCC "smartly" removes their two worst OOC games next year for Pacific, this will help our conference.

I would like to see SM get rid of E. Wash (311) and Jackson St. (314) next year.

[Gozags99]

Great point that I missed in my overview. The key is for Pacific to replace the two bottom out of conference opponents, not two top out of conference opponents!

[MBAGael]

Also, Pacific's RPI will get a bump just by moving to our conference since our conference RPI is higher than their current conference.

[FieldHouseFishHouse]

I think this is a well-articulated post, and the suggestion that GU look to schedule "cupcake" teams in the 100-200 RPI range rather than teams sitting at 250+ is a valid one.

However, IMO there is still a pervasive misunderstanding of how the RPI is calculated and how it is used.

For example: The RPI of a team's opponent is NOT technically a variable in the calculation of RPI. Rather, the W-L record of your opponent is the main factor. USF sits at #130 in the RPI with a 9-13 record, Purdue is at #129 with a 12-12 record. All things being equal a game against Purdue is way healthier for the RPI, but you wouldn't know it from looking at RPI alone.

A team's overall RPI is important, but the specifics that really matter are good wins and bad losses. Assuming the Zags win the game, scheduling RPI#250 isn't much different than scheduling a team at RPI#150 (again, assuming the overall W-L records of the opponents aren't drastically different).

My last point is that it's pretty difficult to predict where an opponent's overall record will be at the end of the year. Southern Utah is 8-13, Campbell is 8-14. Those records are actually better than I would expect for teams with 270+ RPIs. My guess is that the coaches want to schedule games against teams that they know they can beat with the second string on the floor, with an eye toward teams that have a prayer of finishing around .500 by the end of the season.

[Gozags99]

Thanks, Field.

Fair point, and I will be the first to admit that I do not know the ins and outs of the RPI. With that said, I think it is a fair statement to suggest that there is a reasonably high correlation between higher RPIs and solid win loss records. In short, I think we are both correct.

[FlyZag]

The problem with dropping Campbell, Southern utah, etc. is that EVERY team needs a break.

Few stressed the importance of having a "breather" game in those tough stretches of the schedule.

It gives the starters rest both mental and physical. It also allows us to develop our bench (Dranginis dropping 30 or PK hitting 20pts 10 rbs). We played Clemson, Oklahoma, Davidson, [easy game LCSC], Pacific, WSU, Illinois, KSU, [easy game Campbell], Baylor, OSU, then league. Without those cupcake games giving us the much needed rest, who knows how we would have done. Would we have had the strength against OSU to pull it out?

[cjm720]

Good post. Another factor, however, is the team needs some cupcakes for senior night and general tune-up.

Also, the addition of Pacific won't guarantee that we'll drop our two worst OOC, it could mean that we lose out on a Butler or Memphis for example...really hard to tell.

[CDC84]

I think this is a well-articulated post, and the suggestion that GU look to schedule "cupcake" teams in the 100-200 RPI range rather than teams sitting at 250+ is a valid one.

The problem with this idea is that guarantee games are getting more and more expensive, and the price gets steeper as you move up the RPI chain. Also, more and more teams in that 100-200 RPI range won't do anything but schedule home and homes unless they get the chance to play Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium or something like that. Gonzaga was very fortunate to get Oral Roberts into K2 recently without a return game. It's not something that teams in ORU's position will generally agree upon.

The Zags must play a certain amount of guarantee games per year to break up the inverted non-conference schedule that they play and to bring in revenue. One of the reasons why I dislike Pacific being added to the league (and I will admit, it's for selfish reasons) is that it takes 2 non-league games away from GU's sked....games that would normally be reserved for Big Sky and SWAC schools in November and December. My concern is that Gonzaga's non-league sked will be weakened because they aren't going to stop playing guarantee games. What you are likely going to see is GU cut out a couple of games that would normally be played against BCS teams. They can't play 10 games in a row vs. BCS teams. They need a break at some point, and the program needs home games.

[FieldHouseFishHouse]

Yeah, the RPI can be funky.

16-8 Illinois - #26
13-8 Houston - #221

[MBAGael]

Yeah, the RPI can be funky.

16-8 Illinois - #26
13-8 Houston - #221

Keep in mind RPI is 50% of the teams you play and 25% of the teams your opponents play. So, being in a better conference is the most important factor for a strong RPI.

[Gozags99]

flyzag,

First and foremost,what would i do without rideopen?! Thanks for that, many times over! There is merit to your point on some breathers, but would South Dakota State or Montana at home still be considered a relative break? Or is it remotely possible to work out dates accordingly? Maybe not.

cjm,

They finally did away with the senior night cupcake game this season, perhaps because it was hurting the RPI? The final WCC regular season game at home is the senior game this year. I personally think the two exhibition games are adequate for warmup. Although, we did lose to San Diego St. out of the box.

[Gozags99]

CDC adds additional great points. This is a business and financials play a big role.

My suggestion is to go ahead and play a home and home or offer 2 for 1 with the likes of Montana, MWC teams (would likely only accept home and home), etc. I remember when Gonzaga struggled in 2000 and 2001 to pick up quality teams that would play home and home. Our turn to return the favor.

This year's out of conference schedule could have had one more true road game. @ Ok St, @ Butler, @ Montana?

I know most will disagree with this idea.

[sittingon50]

One of the issues with Campbell is they've lost their stud (22 PPG) twice this year. They are 5-9 without him. Were favored to win their division within their league, but that ain't happenin' now.

[mgadfly]

Our out of conference schedule, if we want to be compared with other high major schools, has to be comparable to their in-conference schedules. In the Big 10, (other than Penn St.) you don't get a "rest break" game. The worst team Duke will play in-conference is Virginia Tech (RPI 169).

It may not be possible to schedule a non-conference slate as tough as the Big 10 regular season. It may not be fair to demand that of the Zags. But all of our cup-cake games are used up by our in-conference opponents. The higher conference schools do not get a South Dakota, Southern Utah, Campbell game every couple weeks to fine tune, rest, and get healthy.

I hope our goal is to get rid of the cupcakes in out of conference scheduling.