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View Full Version : Gonzaga vs St Mary's...game predictions and other thoughts



Reborn
01-07-2013, 08:32 AM
The further into the season that we get, the more I am liking to have just one thread like this to post my thoughts about the game each week. So Im starting this one earlier this week because it's such a huge game.

For me this is one of the biggest games of the year, and it's a becoming a real rivalry. Some say the students won't be here, but I am betting that they will be. The Zags will be more motivated to beat St Mary's than ever before because St Mary's took the WCC crown from the Zags. I know that Mark Few, all the coaches and all the players want that crown back. I think Few designed such a difficult OOC schedule to do just that. He scheduled teams that had great guards, and so far it has really helped the Zags to have played against guys like: Paul, Abrams and Richardson, Jackson and Walton, and Hanslip, and finally Smart and Brown who I am sure are as good as Delladedova and Holt, and most recently against the Santa Clara guards who are as good as any. I think the Zags are well prepared to defeat St Mary's.

St Mary's will really miss Jones this week. I believe the Gael's will have even more difficulty guarding our post players than Santa Clara did.

Gonzaga 82
St Mary's 69

rennis
01-07-2013, 08:37 AM
Gonzaga - 84
SMC - 70


SMC doesn't have the horses this year.

Harris will be GUnit, Kevin honorable mention, KO takes a night off and only scores 15.

77Zag
01-07-2013, 08:40 AM
I'm saying 85 -70 -- The Zags

I had a discussion about the students for the game on Thursday -- evidently, they had some 1000 swipes from students to attend....not the usual full house of students, but certainly a good showing.

Delly cannot do it solo -- no Jones to carry them along. Home cooking after a LONG road trip. The Zags will be ready.

Go Zags - Beat SMC!!

Oregonzagnut
01-07-2013, 08:43 AM
We need to put to rest the saying that "The season is still early". It is certainly not late, but it is not early either. We are just past mid point and it is time to start gelling together for the final run. We have played 16 of our 31 games in the regular season. The time is not early.

The time is now.

As far as St Marys,

Gonzaga 85
Gaerls 75

Kelly has 24 pts and 10 rbs, the team only takes 12 threes total, and Edi will have a mini break out game and play the best he has since the first 2 games.

stevet75
01-07-2013, 08:47 AM
Gu 83
sm 72

SMC's focus is on winning the WCC, and they are built to take on GU, but GU is at home and a better team.

HOOTER
01-07-2013, 08:49 AM
Looks like the consensus so far is a 10-15 point win for the Zags, which I think is right on. I think they will come out a bit sluggish, but gain (and never lose) momentum midway through the first half. I can see Saint Marys sticking around the remainder of the game but never really threatening.

jpwils
01-07-2013, 08:57 AM
Edi, Hart, Bell, and Dranginis will need to be well-rested for guarding Delly at various times.

Let their other guards beat us - no Jones to do it this year.

Our bigs need to set the tone early and get them in foul trouble.

zags by 10.

Bushman
01-07-2013, 09:00 AM
This game should be similar to the SC game in that there is really only 1 player to worry about, Delly. Foster did his best (29 pts) and SC also had great support from Trasolini
(19 pts, 9 reb). Foster scores more than Delly and has more help as well. On paper, the Zags should win by more. The probable drop in points fron Kelly should be offset with increases from KP, GLE and PK. I think this will not be close.

Zags 82
SMC 63

Canadians account for 40 points.

BULLDOG#1
01-07-2013, 09:03 AM
SMC is way down this year... but they still have the goods to beat the zags, especially if GU doesn't come to play. I think it would take an extraordinary shooting night by the Gaels.

I doubt we'll see that, though. My guess is the zags go about business and control the glass and the tempo and win by double digits.

I hope to see more of Dranginis and Karnowski.

hondo
01-07-2013, 09:04 AM
Woodshed!

gamagin
01-07-2013, 09:17 AM
goose.

Bogozags
01-07-2013, 10:02 AM
If KO and EH stay out of foul trouble in the first half and our back court plays the same "D" as we did against SCU, then we win by +20 but no less then 10. Don't think SMC can compete with us, our front court depth is just too deep.

Martin Centre Mad Man
01-07-2013, 10:09 AM
Zags 84. Gaels 68.

Baseline
01-07-2013, 10:25 AM
GU should have an easier time this year, SMC doesn't look like the same team. Its hard to believe Jones made that big a difference, its like something is missing, hope they don't find it Thursday.

Their bigs will have a nightmare and Delly will be delly, but even his shooting is off.

GU 83
SMC 64

MBAGael
01-07-2013, 10:34 AM
Sagarin has GU by 12 with an 85% chance of winning.

Ekrub
01-07-2013, 10:36 AM
Insider article on ESPN, "Can the zags win it all?"... Anyone care to post a few snippets?

jazzdelmar
01-07-2013, 10:42 AM
Insider article on ESPN, "Can the zags win it all?"... Anyone care to post a few snippets?

Can Gonzaga win it all?
11:41
AM ET
Gonzaga Bulldogs
RECOMMEND1COMMENTS0EMAIL

Having watched Gonzaga for the past decade plus, I'd agree with those who say that this is the most talented team Mark Few has had in Spokane.

As the wins continue to pile up for the 15-1 Zags, it's hard not to look ahead and wonder if this team has a chance to run through March and actually take home the national championship.

From Kevin Pangos to Gary Bell to Elias Harris to Kelly Olynyk to Sam Dower to Przemek Karnowski, this team is deep and talented and the big question moving forward is how well they will gel over teh course of the season and into March. Will they enter the Big Dance playing their best ball, or will they peak at the wrong time?

Here's more from John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus on Gonzaga's title chances.

Ekrub
01-07-2013, 10:49 AM
Merci Beaucoup jazz

john montana
01-07-2013, 10:57 AM
I hope you guys are right. I think we'll win, but I expect a tight one. Delly will hurt us, we just don't match up well with him...and their crazy high pick and roll (that always features one of the worst moving screens in college basketball) is something we traditionally struggle to cover. I could easily see a lot of cheap fouls on KO and EH on the hedge and a tight game down the stretch.

zagzilla
01-07-2013, 11:21 AM
This games means more to them than to us so we better be careful. Delly will get his but we can withstand a big night. Waldow played pretty good against us last season as a frosh. Mitchell Young seems to have regressed and the SMC fans on his back big time.

SMC has done nothing notable in the OOC to buiuld a post-season resume so the pressure is on them to knock us off.

I don't see it happening though they will ugly it up

GU 68
SMC 55

ZZ

Hoopaholic
01-07-2013, 11:32 AM
The games I have watched I am seeing a different DELLY type of player...I dont see the hard attacks to t he basket off the dribble as in the past...is this because he doesnt have a confident big to follow thru with the pick and roll to bail him out with those incredible no look passes???I dont know but he is not attacking the paint like he used to in past years

With that said, coupled with the absolutely awesome coaching change by few and staff...I suspect we will see DELLY defended differently that we have in past years...we may even see a soft hedge by our bigs daring DELLY to shoot over them on pull up threes....we may see Hart and Edi HOUNDING him the first half to get him frustrated with their physicallness and length...we may see bell start on him with hart or edi starting on the high pick and roll post so we get an auto switch and KO on the rotation picking up the center......

We have a chip on our shoulders and need to pay them back for taking away the league and tournament title......these kids know that and have come to respect all the program represents and this may be the first of three opportunities to let them know.

I cannot fathom how SMC is going to stop our bigs......my guess is we see a tightly rotated zone and dare our guards to beat them......Keating rolled the dice to take away Pangos and lost, RB is not going to go with that option I dont think.....

We win by 11

Virginia Zags Fan
01-07-2013, 11:41 AM
Just because they almost always are with those guys. Both teams know each other so well and I think SMC will give the Zags their best shot. Delly is darn good and we will get his best game and probably a few wrinkles we have not seen from SMC. I think it will be close 6-10 points, but we will take them. I think our guards will have a better game back in Spokane.

If we win this one, I would not be surprised to see us win by more in Moraga later in the year and here is why. I have a feeling that SCU, BYU, and USF are going to wear on SMC by the time we see them down there. I think our depth will make us that much stronger in the 2nd half of the season.

Hoopaholic
01-07-2013, 11:47 AM
I scored tickets for the moraga game....two years in a row.....

Kiddwell
01-07-2013, 11:57 AM
We're No. 1! - 88
:adored:

We're No. 3 or 4! - 61
:mecry:

Della can play, but his team's not the same without Rob Jones. This fan sees them losing to SCU (maybe twice) to BYU (maybe twice) to GU (twice) and maybe another lemon dropped at USF.

:]

DixieZag
01-07-2013, 12:16 PM
I was amazed how soft SMC looked against LMU and Harvard - - and I actually don't think that Delly has regressed at all.

I think that we really didn't appreciate how good Jones was and, even more, how much he put that team on his back and carried them through games last year. Delly is an even better player but teams can simply focus on shutting him down, he has no "out" and I actually feel a little bad for the guy. Say what you want about the mouthpiece but the kid has been nothing but a class act, worked his asteroid off and COULD have made an AA run if it were not for the fact that the cupboard was left bare during his senior year. I think that SMC has a good recruiting class coming next year - but, my they sure left Delly hanging.

I think we start slow, fall behind 5-8 pts, work our way to be up 2-6 at half and slowly pull away through the second half, Delly makes a little run late.

Zags 78
SMC 66

Elias leads team in scoring with 22-25 pts being the biggest beneficiary of KO being double teamed down low.

rennis
01-07-2013, 12:26 PM
their crazy high pick and roll (that always features one of the worst moving screens in college basketball) is something we traditionally struggle to cover.

That pick & roll is working about 50% as well as it did last year. Delly doesn't have the weapons around him to exploit us as badly.

That said, you are right, it's been crazy effective against the Zags in the past and they have to be very very careful on the switches. My prediction above about Kelly having a slow night is partially because of defending that pick & roll. Whoever goes out top, whether it be TKO, PK, or SD, is going to have their hands full if they get switched onto Delly. I'd say >50% chance KO picks up a couple fouls in this manner.

I will be curious to see who defends Delly most of the night. I'm hoping for KP. He's been defending pretty well overall IMO. I worry about Holt getting hot, I hope Bell smothers him.

Robzagnut
01-07-2013, 01:28 PM
If KO and EH stay out of foul trouble in the first half and our back court plays the same "D" as we did against SCU, then we win by +20 but no less then 10. Don't think SMC can compete with us, our front court depth is just too deep.


That’s a big ‘If’.

My biggest worry is that on a high screen Delly purposely runs into KO and FLOPS his way into a couple of bad calls against KO. Hopefully by now, WCC refs are wise to his flopping, but we’ll see.

maynard g krebs
01-07-2013, 03:43 PM
Hard to understand not appreciating Jones, one of a couple of handfuls of 15/10 guys in the game last year.

SMC is ordinary without him, even with extraordinary guards.

Zags by a dozen, low-mid 80s to low 70s. Closer game, of course, in Moraga.

TheZagPhish
01-07-2013, 04:49 PM
This games means more to them than to us so we better be careful.

I'm not so sure, zilla. We lost more than they won last year.

zagzilla
01-07-2013, 04:49 PM
Mantua-

Alameda Fan (one of the truly annoying personalities on that board) posted this in 2012.

ZZ

ID ZAGFAN
01-07-2013, 04:50 PM
So what are they saying about us this year?

ZaGranny

zagzilla
01-07-2013, 04:51 PM
Fair enough, Phish. Our guys will definitely have payback on their minds which is good. I was trying to say that unless SMC finds a way to knock us off somewhere along the way, they are not dancing and they know it.

ZZ

Mantua
01-07-2013, 05:02 PM
http://godisagael.yuku.com/topic/6479/Next-3-Games#.UOt8Fmt5mK0

I don't know how to put this in a quote format and I apologize for that.


"GallopingGael67 wrote:
If the Gaels win#2 of 3, they will be co-favorites to win the#regular season#championship.# Go for it, Gaels.#

I'm not too sure about that.# If the five headed monster from the North defeats SMC thurs. as most expect, the Gonz. schedule looks to be pretty favorable setting up speculation they can go unscathed in regular conf. play.# I think they will be a big home favorite 7-10pts.
It will take an extraordinary performance and some luck for Delly & Co to win.# SMC has to take all their open threes, like Illinois & SCU did-and make a high % of them to have a chance!!# We might outplay their guards, but I don't see any answer for their Bigs-Harris, Olynyk, Karnowski.# Harris in particular has had huge games vs St. Marys.

TOM70
i'm wonderinfg if # #3 [-]


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RB goes with Guisti on Pangos and moving Holt on Harris
then you run Waldow, Hodgson, Young and even Rowley at Olynyk....
much like last year using Benson to frustrate Sacre and to make him bleed for points....the big playing Hart can help out on Olynyk
by the way during the broadcast of the Zags v Scum they mentioned that Olynyk is never forced to go right and
sure enough he went to his right once the entire game and missed a dunk
he seems comfortable going constantly to his left.....I am wondering if the coaches pick up on that
(funny for two reasons)....he is right handed and even funnier that the Zags announcers brought it up"

john montana
01-07-2013, 05:07 PM
Did I read that right? Their fans want to use Holt to guard Harris?

rennis
01-07-2013, 05:47 PM
Did I read that right? Their fans want to use Holt to guard Harris?

Lol...that would be awesome.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

OZZY
01-07-2013, 05:53 PM
RB will have been formulating a plan for months for our games. He is crafty and will use whatever means he has at his disposal to disrupt us and what we want to accomplish. No matter what we have seen from the Gaels this year, you can bet they will crank their game up a notch against the Zags. While they may not have as much offensive skill in the post, they do have the bodies with Waldow, Young, Rowley and Hodgeson. They will try and neutralize our bigs as much as possible and use Delly and Holts size against our Guards. It will be interesting to see how Walker and Levesque stack up against Hart and Edi (and Dranginis). IMHO the long range shooting of SMC will be our biggest single headache.

GU 87
SMC 75

Beware of Delly!

Oregonzagnut
01-07-2013, 06:08 PM
Pangos, got a lesson by Brandon Paul and as an ugly bonus, went cold at the same time, at home. But he took that lesson and hung with Marcus Smart enough to score the same number of points as Smart did AND shot much smarter. I think Few got smarter too.

Our guards are improving to the point where I do not think Delly (or any WCC guard combo) can take over the game like Illinois did. Delly is good and he may get drafted but he is no Paul or Smart, and if we had to play Illinois again right now, I think we win, even at Illinois. Our back court has gotten so much smarter and better now especially right along side our front court. Symbiosis and growth makes each component stronger.

IMO, Few is developing one of the best inside outside teams in the nation. The teams that rely on five 6'4" to 6'9" sprinting physical underclassmen will not handle the overall higher IQ and depth of Gonzaga. Also IMO, if Dower and Edi can snap out of their slumps and at least play without making mistakes, we will be unstoppable.

Psychozag
01-07-2013, 06:35 PM
I am surprised that no one has mentioned the departure of Steindl. He couldn't do a whole lot, but he did shoot 3's at 42%. I remember him hitting some big ones in the games that he played against us. Holt is shooting 34% and Page is shooting 39%. Dellavadova will be his usual self and control the game (and look like a greasy Howdy Doody while doing it), but he won't be able to control the misses from the inside and outside of his teammates. Without having the 3 as the great equalizer, I predict a Zag win. I feel pretty confident about this game, but don't see a blow out. Zags 80 - SMC 73.
https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQmkcl2_5cADxBYbyQ8aODxAS9V8DB65 uSyNlx48dJhdt5qsLUdz2lDS3x7
https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTZ907OHvTLPomnlf4Bw8LIHTwgQbnIJ 7FEVreeR4LvIXJXyBUB

FlyZag
01-07-2013, 06:42 PM
The demise of SMC is greatly overstated!!!!

Fighting K9's - 77
Fighting Mouthpiece - 68

Baseline
01-07-2013, 06:48 PM
Karno has shown that he defensed the pick and roll petty well, in his limited play. To me Few should consider starting Karno at center with Kelly at the 3. If Harris needs a break, Kelly slides to the 4 and Hart comes in at the 3. If karno needs a break, Kelly slides to the 5.
This would expose Kelly to guarding a 3, but SMC isn't blessed with speed and strong slashers, so it might just work. With this lineup we have two seven footer and Harris on the boards. No pick and Roll with this line up.

Just a thought, am I crazy.

ZagsBaby
01-07-2013, 06:52 PM
Karno has shown that he defensed the pick and roll petty well, in his limited play. To me Few should consider starting Karno at center with Kelly at the 3. If Harris needs a break, Kelly slides to the 4 and Hart comes in at the 3. If karno needs a break, Kelly slides to the 5.
This would expose Kelly to guarding a 3, but SMC isn't blessed with speed and strong slashers, so it might just work. With this lineup we have two seven footer and Harris on the boards. No pick and Roll with this line up.

Just a thought, am I crazy.


Yes. you are. no offense. Kelly isn't a 3.

And why do people care so much who starts? It really doesn't matter a damn bit. Besides, Hart>Karnowski and it's not close.

Baseline
01-07-2013, 06:56 PM
I don't care who starts either, mostly talking about position usage. Hart can't play center, so the comparison isn't relevant.

GeorgiaZagFan
01-07-2013, 07:14 PM
.... worried that St. Mary's is going to play their best game of the year....mouthpiece goes for 20 points and 10 assists, as a team they hit 13 of 24 threes, Waldow remembers his freshman game against the Zags and has a double-double, the refs call it like they've just been paid ....and the Zags only win 84-68 :) :)

MBAGael
01-07-2013, 07:30 PM
KO analysis from a Gael blog

http://smchoops.com/2013/01/know-your-enemy-gonzagas-kelly-olynyk/#more-236

Kiddwell
01-07-2013, 07:36 PM
KO analysis from a Gael blog

http://smchoops.com/2013/01/know-your-enemy-gonzagas-kelly-olynyk/#more-236

Fun to read and watch.


:]

LongIslandZagFan
01-07-2013, 07:44 PM
I stink at this... let me try it again anyhow...

Gaels 189
Zags 40

RenoZag
01-07-2013, 08:06 PM
Zags win by 8 in an ugly foul plagued travesty of officiating.

DCZag
01-07-2013, 09:29 PM
Not too worried about this one...SMC is good, but we are better and at home.

Zags by 15

ZagsBaby
01-07-2013, 09:57 PM
I don't care who starts either, mostly talking about position usage. Hart can't play center, so the comparison isn't relevant.

The comparison is stupid, but relevant to your point of getting the best players in the same lineup. Karnowski's impact on GU isn't nearly as high as Harts, so by removing Hart, moving KO and inserting Karnowski, you've know made Kelly useless and this team mediocre. just sayin

Reborn
01-08-2013, 06:05 AM
This is not going to be a blowout imo, and we had better not underestimate the Gael's, which I know the team isn't doing. Like it was said by the announcers the other night, Gonzaga and St. Mary's is possibly the biggest rivalry on the West Coast. I believe that. It's bigger now then our rivalry with WSU. So we can throw out all the stats. Look at the game WSU gave us.

A couple problems that I see when I look at St Marys OOC schedule is how weak it is. They have very good stats, score lots of points and shoot a high percentage. However, they got these high statistics against teams that are not that good. Gonzaga has played a much much tougher OOC schedule, and already played USC and won on their court. The other probem is that all three of their losses were on the road. It seems like they don't play as well on the road.

The Gaels are WCC champions and I believe they will play like it. The biggest question that I see is can they defend our post players? The biggest mismatch in this game I think will be with Elias. Can Elias get motivated to have a game in the 20+ point range? Elias likes to drive to the basket a lot and I can guarantee you that St Mary's will be trying to get charging calls on him so he can sit on the bench. He needs to be aware of that.

Goshzagit
01-08-2013, 06:56 AM
We seem awfully confident for a team who squeaked by Pepperdine and Santa Clara just last week.

Good wins, yes, but very fortunate wins at that.

Lest we forget the WCC is a different game. Its the primary reason Karnowski has received so little playing time, while Kelly continues to flourish, and Elias has had some difficulty finding his niche' again.

The officials are a completely different breed in this league. They eye guards rather than bigs. blocking fouls rather than battles in the paint. moving screens rather than physical play. Officials can literally get going and take over in the WCC. I'm talking 25-30 FT's for each team and it becomes a FT shooting contest over an actual bball game.

The "bigs" are usually sub 6'9" and generally very quick or thick. the guards are all good shooters, not some, all of them. the forwards are usually 6'4" combo guards. the backcourt is everything to every team, save Gonzaga.

its an odd change for us.

Point is, anything can happen, especially vs a rival.

SMC is 12-3 with losses to Pacific, who they turned around and beat by 30 the next week. A loss to an ACC team on a neutral court (10-3 Georgia Tech, who actually look pretty decent this year). A loss to Northern Iowa(former Sweet 16 team) and always winning record, on the road.

They feature very solid wins vs near Top-25 Utah St(14-1) AT USU, a win vs always competitive Drexel, and they beat Harvard, who whooped up on Cal the game before.

SMC still returns 4 of 5 starters from last season and bring aboard a very capable defender in former Utah St guard, James Walker III, who is averaging 10 ppg, 4.5 rebs, 2 apg. Sure, those are Rob Jones' stats, but still more than solid, basically GBJ #'s.

Dellavedova is a given. Stephen Holt is an elite defender. James Walker III is a do-it-all guard in the mold of GBJ. Jordan Page is quick as lightning and capable shooter. Mitchell Young has always given us fits with his scappy(dirty?) play in the post. And Brad Waldow, for whatever inexplicable reason has torn. us. up. the last couple games off the patented pick 'n roll with Delly (if we cont. to "hedge" Delly this game, we are screwed folks).

SMC shoots 41% from 3pt as a team.

That may not mean much vs many teams, but it sure as hell means something vs us. Keep in mind, they are the ONLY team that we've faced that shoots 40+% from 3pt since, well, ILLINOIS. If you follow Baldwinzag's fun rule of thumb, not the best sign vs our defense.

They rank Top-20 in PPG(80). Top-40 in Assists per game(16). AND Top-10 in FG %(50). Have we forgotten to look up effective statistics for this game?

Bottom line, St Mary's is still a very good offensive team. Their downfall has been defense this season, but can still score and shoot with the very best.

They have circled the calendar as many times as we have.

This is a so-called season-saver for them, not for us. Pride exists in both locker rooms, don't forget that.

If you haven't already noticed, WCC teams are playing hard, giving everything they have to beat us and as a result, its required two Herculean efforts by us to win these games.

Now, we're playing a team that I believe is better than SCU in every way save rebounding.

We will have to play our A-game, especially defensively to win this grudge match. We have YET to show we can defend the pick 'n roll with Delly and Waldow, even with Sacre's defense underneath. Hope we've learned.

Also, Delly, Page, Holt, Walker III, Levesque et al are all very very good 3pt shooters. Not one of their guards shoots sub-35% from 3pt. Gulp, if you ask me.

This will be a challenge. Our post play has the ability to dominate, yet so does their shooting and passing and scoring.

If we aren't hitting our shots this game, we will lose. Simple as that.

In SMC's 3 losses to 2 quality opponents and 1 fluke one they also beat by 30, they were missing shots and Delly was cold.

Just imagine if Delly is hot vs us. Then, all of a sudden, we'll remember players such as Page, Young, Waldow, Holt, etc have all had big games vs us in the past...

rennis
01-08-2013, 07:17 AM
They rank Top-20 in PPG(80). Top-40 in Assists per game(16). AND Top-10 in FG %(50). Have we forgotten to look up effective statistics for this game?


Amazing.

Until you consider they did that against the 246th most difficult schedule in D1.

Until they beat someone like GU or BYU, consider me under-freakingwhelmed.

http://www.anomalousmaterial.com/movies/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/rapper10.jpg

Gonzdb8
01-08-2013, 07:18 AM
We seem awfully confident for a team who squeaked by Pepperdine and Santa Clara just last week.

Good wins, yes, but very fortunate wins at that.

Lest we forget the WCC is a different game. Its the primary reason Karnowski has received so little playing time, while Kelly continues to flourish, and Elias has had some difficulty finding his niche' again.

The officials are a completely different breed in this league. They eye guards rather than bigs. blocking fouls rather than battles in the paint. moving screens rather than physical play. Officials can literally get going and take over in the WCC. I'm talking 25-30 FT's for each team and it becomes a FT shooting contest over an actual bball game.

The "bigs" are usually sub 6'9" and generally very quick or thick. the guards are all good shooters, not some, all of them. the forwards are usually 6'4" combo guards. the backcourt is everything to every team, save Gonzaga.

its an odd change for us.

Point is, anything can happen, especially vs a rival.

SMC is 12-3 with losses to Pacific, who they turned around and beat by 30 the next week. A loss to an ACC team on a neutral court (10-3 Georgia Tech, who actually look pretty decent this year). A loss to Northern Iowa(former Sweet 16 team) and always winning record, on the road.

They feature very solid wins vs near Top-25 Utah St(14-1) AT USU, a win vs always competitive Drexel, and they beat Harvard, who whooped up on Cal the game before.

SMC still returns 4 of 5 starters from last season and bring aboard a very capable defender in former Utah St guard, James Walker III, who is averaging 10 ppg, 4.5 rebs, 2 apg. Sure, those are Rob Jones' stats, but still more than solid, basically GBJ #'s.

Dellavedova is a given. Stephen Holt is an elite defender. James Walker III is a do-it-all guard in the mold of GBJ. Jordan Page is quick as lightning and capable shooter. Mitchell Young has always given us fits with his scappy(dirty?) play in the post. And Brad Waldow, for whatever inexplicable reason has torn. us. up. the last couple games off the patented pick 'n roll with Delly (if we cont. to "hedge" Delly this game, we are screwed folks).

SMC shoots 41% from 3pt as a team.

That may not mean much vs many teams, but it sure as hell means something vs us. Keep in mind, they are the ONLY team that we've faced that shoots 40+% from 3pt since, well, ILLINOIS. If you follow Baldwinzag's fun rule of thumb, not the best sign vs our defense.

They rank Top-20 in PPG(80). Top-40 in Assists per game(16). AND Top-10 in FG %(50). Have we forgotten to look up effective statistics for this game?

Bottom line, St Mary's is still a very good offensive team. Their downfall has been defense this season, but can still score and shoot with the very best.

They have circled the calendar as many times as we have.

This is a so-called season-saver for them, not for us. Pride exists in both locker rooms, don't forget that.

If you haven't already noticed, WCC teams are playing hard, giving everything they have to beat us and as a result, its required two Herculean efforts by us to win these games.

Now, we're playing a team that I believe is better than SCU in every way save rebounding.

We will have to play our A-game, especially defensively to win this grudge match. We have YET to show we can defend the pick 'n roll with Delly and Waldow, even with Sacre's defense underneath. Hope we've learned.

Also, Delly, Page, Holt, Walker III, Levesque et al are all very very good 3pt shooters. Not one of their guards shoots sub-35% from 3pt. Gulp, if you ask me.

This will be a challenge. Our post play has the ability to dominate, yet so does their shooting and passing and scoring.

If we aren't hitting our shots this game, we will lose. Simple as that.

In SMC's 3 losses to 2 quality opponents and 1 fluke one they also beat by 30, they were missing shots and Delly was cold.

Just imagine if Delly is hot vs us. Then, all of a sudden, we'll remember players such as Page, Young, Waldow, Holt, etc have all had big games vs us in the past...

you really need to change your screen name to Goshgaelit. i really don't know where to start with your post so i'll just group it and say this...smc is awful. beat down coming.

DixieZag
01-08-2013, 07:40 AM
Goshzagit - - how do you have a post that has such great information and then go completely off the deep end????

You bring out such great points about SMC's wins and losses and their stats and that should make all of us re-think whether this is an automatic 15 pt home victory like the typical Portland game - - - or more like the usual SMC games. Which is what your post should really do.

But then you go all apocolypse on us and interpret all your good information as meaning that we are doomed worse than BZ ever imagined????

Let's take a step back. Re-read your post. Is SMC a little better than their current record states? Probably.

Are we overlooking some potential danger areas in Thursday night's game? Yes.

Are many of us a little too pleased with our team and dismissive of reasonable arguments that SMC is capable of beating us in Spokane? Yes.

Should SMC beat GU Thursday???

No. Not this year, not these two teams, even if SMC plays its best (which isn't a bad assumption) GU should have enough depth, muscle, size, to win 4 out of 5 games with SMC easily.

Pargo the Destroyer
01-08-2013, 07:48 AM
Just imagine Gonzaga's offensive stats had they played the 246th ranked schedule. This place would be injecting koolaid like Christmas at a crack house.

john montana
01-08-2013, 07:54 AM
246th ranked schedule. Bennett should be ashamed of himself, but I bet Romar is proud.

Despite their woeful and embarrassing schedule, they will still play us tough. Delly is a bad match up for us, and they can shoot it and spread the floor. I think it will be a tight one.

rennis
01-08-2013, 08:06 AM
Just imagine Gonzaga's offensive stats had they played the 246th ranked schedule. This place would be injecting koolaid like Christmas at a crack house.

thank you.

They'd be top 5 in just about every offensive statistic.

hooter73
01-08-2013, 08:28 AM
a week of practice and a game at home gets Harris flying above the rim and Pangos hits his shots like he usually does in the kennel.

ZagNative
01-08-2013, 01:09 PM
Per KO, "Long Hair, Don't Care!" GuBulldogs pregame video (http://youtu.be/Q0Lt2sg9ZVM) pulling for a big student turnout.

bballbeachbum
01-08-2013, 07:48 PM
Per KO, "Long Hair, Don't Care!" GuBulldogs pregame video (http://youtu.be/Q0Lt2sg9ZVM) pulling for a big student turnout.

what PK said!

I predict SMC plays with lots of moving screens, grabbing, pushing and other gamey tactics, but they have plenty of skill as well

to me, this is a game where a strong and fast early start by the Zags could snowball. Just no letup fellas, no letup, 40 minutes

GBj's physical condition will be tested by Bennett, I predict that too, if GBj draws Delly on D, which he probably will for stretches. I like Hart and GLE on Delly size for size; that's Delly's favorite is to bully up and look over smaller matchups, but the size matchup seems to bug him

GO ZAGS!!!

Reborn
01-09-2013, 06:05 AM
What's your prediction, Goshzagit? I'd be interested to know.

bartruff1
01-09-2013, 06:12 AM
a week of practice and a game at home gets Harris flying above the rim and Pangos hits his shots like he usually does in the kennel....it is the Kennel for crying out loud....Gonzaga in a cake walk.... I would enjoy seeing Sam with a Sam Game....

MJGoGaels
01-09-2013, 10:38 AM
Dellavedova lifts Saint Mary's to new heights
By JOSH DUBOW, AP Sports Writer
Updated 9:50 am, Wednesday, January 9, 2013
MORAGA, Calif. (AP) — From the moment he arrived at Saint Mary's as a shaggy-haired freshman from Australia with a multicolored mouth guard and an old-school game, it was clear Matthew Dellavedova would be something special.

In three-plus seasons with the Gaels, Dellavedova has backed that up with numerous school records and individual accolades, two conference tournament titles and NCAA tournament appearances, and an impressive stint as an Olympic starter matching up against NBA stars like Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul and Tony Parker.

Whether it's his court vision that allows him to see openings before they even develop, the passes that sometimes surprise even his teammates or the teardrop floaters and 3-pointers that have him on pace to be Saint Mary's all-time leading scorer, Dellavedova is the engine that drives the Gaels.

"He's as good as we've had. Just look at what he's done," coach Randy Bennett said. "He continues to get better. That's a straight byproduct of his work ethic. He always has understood that he hasn't arrived. He's still trying to get better. He knows what it will take, it will take great attitude, hard work, be humble, those things."

It's a fitting attitude for the Gaels' best player because it is the exact same approach Bennett wants for his program. After taking over a two-win team in 2001, Bennett has built Saint Mary's into a consistent winner with five straight 25-win seasons.

After years of chasing Gonzaga, the Gaels have caught up in the West Coast Conference in Dellavedova's first three seasons. Both programs won 36 conference games the past three seasons with each school taking one outright regular-season championship and sharing the third.

The Gaels won two of the past three WCC tournament titles, beating the Bulldogs in the final both times. In fact, after winning just three of the first 22 games against Gonzaga in Bennett's tenure, Saint Mary's has won four times in the past seven meetings, including a win in Spokane two years ago.

But there is no sense of satisfaction for Saint Mary's (12-3, 1-0) heading into the first meeting of the season against No. 9 Gonzaga (15-1, 2-0) on Thursday night in Spokane.

"They've done it for a long time," Dellavedova said. "We're just trying to do our thing and keep getting better as a program ourselves because they've done it for so long. We're just trying to keep pushing hard to see how much better we can get."

Having lost three times in the nonconference season, the Gaels have little margin for error if they want to make the NCAA tournament in consecutive seasons for the first time in school history. A road win against a top 10 team like Gonzaga would go a long way toward cementing that goal.

While that may seem like a daunting task on the surface, Dellavedova has faced much tougher competition than that in the past year. Dellavedova is one of two college basketball players who participated in last summer's Olympics, joining the College of Charleston's Andrew Lawrence, a reserve for Great Britain.

But Dellavedova started all six games in London, running the point for an Australian team that won three games. He averaged 7.3 points, 4.5 assists and 3.8 rebounds in 29 minutes per game against some of the top players in the world.

After posting three points, four assists and seven rebounds in a quarterfinal loss to the United States, Dellavedova even got some words of encouragement from Bryant.

"It gave me a taste of how good those guys are and how much you have to work to improve to get to that kind of level," Dellavedova said. "Going against smart players who are physical, tall, it cuts down on your decision-making time. You have less space and time so you have to be sharper in your decision-making."

Dellavedova has grown from that experience and is having his best season yet in college, posting career highs in points (17.4 per game), assists (6.7 per game), shooting (47 percent), 3-point shooting (42 percent) and foul shooting (91 percent). He is already the school-record holder in assists and 3-pointers and is on pace to break Daniel Kickert's career scoring record at Saint Mary's.

Gonzaga coach Mark Few called Dellavedova "brilliant" with the way he executes the ball screens that are so prevalent in Saint Mary's offense.

"It starts with him and it ends with him," Gonzaga star Elias Harris said. "He's their main guy, and I agree with Coach Few that he's for sure one of the better guys in the nation when it comes to ball screen situations, the feel for a game and the way he reads the court and finds his teammates is incredible. It's really a load. It's hard, even as a team, to guard him. It's going to be a great challenge."

But Bennett said Dellavedova's biggest skill might be his leadership and his ability to make his teammates better.

Bennett knew he was getting a good player when he got the commitment from Dellavedova. But after Dellavedova arrived, the Gaels realized they were getting so much more.

"I thought we should check his birth certificate because he played like a 25- or 30-year-old man, even as a freshman," said former Saint Mary's star center Omar Samhan, who played one season with Dellavedova. "He just came in and had such a good feel for the game beyond his years. He always played beyond his years. That always stuck out to me."

___

AP Sports Writer Janie McCauley contributed to this report.



Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Dellavedova-lifts-Saint-Mary-s-to-new-heights-4179710.php#ixzz2HVamoaa6

Hoopaholic
01-09-2013, 10:43 AM
He is a doggone good player....that is for certain.......but good players this year have found it is hard to beat the consistent, deep, zag team by themselves.........cant wait for Thursday

Goshzagit
01-09-2013, 11:31 AM
Based on their shooting %'s and our past performances, this game is most definitely a toss-up(unless they miss all their 3pt shots). Haven't we learned our lesson over the past 7-8 years? ANY team that shoots above 36% from 3pt gives us fits, win or loss. As a team, they connect on 40+% of their 3's. Also, they feature 3 big, strong, pretty athletic guards in Delly, Holt, & Walker III. They'll have little problems defending Pangos & Bell. Our front court will need to bail us out again. Given the match-ups, Elias should have a big game, unless he gets into foul trouble or goes on cruise control for long stretches.

Olynyk may feel he needs to score 30 for us win, which probably isn't the case, but could force things a bit following all the recent hype/clippings/headlines (only human nature). Dower could be hit or miss off the bench. Which guy shows up? Can any of these guys defend the pick 'n roll with Delly & Waldow? We haven't seen it yet, in the past 2 seasons, so why the change? We won last season b/c they were cold as ice from 3pt in Spokane & Pangos was hitting -- when they are knocking down shots vs Gonzaga, they can very easily come out on top, and since they know every play and our personel extremely well, it will be tough. very tough. I think we pull this one out with a last-second shot in a pretty high scoring affair:

Thus,

35% = 83
40% = 82

IrishZagFan
01-09-2013, 12:43 PM
Pangos and Bell regain their 3 point "home" shooting touch......

Zags win 88 - 76...........

Delly is tough, no doubt, Very fun to watch, Irish would hate to play against him......If you get a chance to record the game, and then watch him away from the ball, he hits as hard as anyone when running through screens.

Mantua
01-09-2013, 12:51 PM
http://collegebasketball.ap.org/article/dellavedova-lifts-saint-marys-new-heights

Oregonzagnut
01-09-2013, 12:57 PM
dellavedova lifts saint mary's to new heights
by josh dubow, ap sports writer
updated 9:50 am, wednesday, january 9, 2013
moraga, calif. (ap) — from the moment he arrived at saint mary's as a shaggy-haired freshman from australia with a multicolored mouth guard and an old-school game, it was clear matthew dellavedova would be something special.


AP Sports Writer Janie McCauley contributed to this report.



Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article...#ixzz2HVamoaa6



246.

Delly is good. Your SOS is bad.

cjm720
01-09-2013, 01:17 PM
I think many of us our underestimating the Gaels and Randy Bennet's ability to coach.

That said, the game's at home and we win with ease. At Moraga's a different story for sure.

FlyZag
01-09-2013, 01:42 PM
He also has a pretty good forearm shiver!

rennis
01-09-2013, 03:07 PM
He also has a pretty good forearm shiver!

Sure does. amazing how he always "creates" space.

;)

10 Piece Bucket
01-09-2013, 05:55 PM
Besides the fact that the Zags are the better team Delly made the huge mistake of cutting his hair.
Even though I think he looks 100% better, it will effect his play
The lads will defeat SMU handily -

Reborn
01-10-2013, 04:59 AM
Alright! It's gameday finally, and one of the best days of the year is the day when we play St. Mary's the fist time, especially when it's in K2. The students are coming back early and are going to be really really ready to get the Kennel hot. I'm so excited and wonder who's going to light the fire tonight and get those fans rocking. I have a feeling that we're going to see the Zags ready to go all out in this one. MMMMmmmm How sweet it is. So many fans here on GUBoards have asked, "How do we stop Delly?" The bigger question is how are the Gaels going to stop Kelly and Elias? And I have a feeling that our shooters are going to be ready tonight.

I really do hope to see the Zags hit 10 3 pointers tonight. I hope to see Pangos get 30 but have a feeling it could be Kelly again. And I would certainly love to see Mike Hart get a dozen points. That would also be a great scenario. But what I would like the most is just to see the guys yelling and screaming and smiling after the game tonight. Finally what I really hope to see is a scoreboard that says Home 93 Guests 73.

Zag4Hire
01-10-2013, 07:43 AM
I think it is pretty clear what GU's Schlieffen Plan needs to be:

On defense, zone it up and prevent dribble drive dish penetration. Make them shoot it from outside.

On offense, run sets to iso (alternate with KO &EH) in the block and give options (cutters in the key & 3 point kickout). Draw fouls and play physical. Perimeter shots should be late clock consideration. If that is stifled, have guards get to the rim. Pile up fouls as SMC has limited depth.

GU 81
SMC 73

U Zig, I Zag
01-10-2013, 08:06 AM
I think it's going to be uncomfortably close or a runaway game - either way GU wins. If the SMC team that played 3/4's of the Harvard game is in Spokane than SMC is in real trouble. If the ref'n goes like the last 1/4 of the Harvard/SMC game than GU is in trouble.

You swarm Delladova and get him antsy and in foul trouble. If you are GU players and coaches you yap at the refs about his push-offs until they call it once then let him take himself out of the game after that.

CAN/GER/POL > AUS

NotoriousZ
01-10-2013, 12:53 PM
Right off the opening tip, Harris busts Delly right in the chops and Captain Ugly struggles the rest of the game with a busted mouthpiece.

Pangos and Bell score at will, not missing a shot.

Kelly has a slow start and only puts up 40.

Ham Sammich watches on his iphone while working the night shift at Burger King.

After the slaughtering, Hart and Dower pants the Gaels and everbody dances around hysterically as Francis the goat plays Randy Bennet's head like a bongo drum.



It's game time.

Zagger
01-10-2013, 02:51 PM
Zags 92, SMC 72
Why ..... revenge! Also, Zags are good and I believe their D is improving. Plus, Zags have the depth to wear SMs down + they don't want to lose another home game.

jim77
01-10-2013, 03:40 PM
Smc comes to play....Zags 82 SMC 79

Gin N GUice
01-10-2013, 04:50 PM
Zags dominate from start to finish. Zags 85 Gals 65

MJGoGaels
01-10-2013, 05:02 PM
246.

Delly is good. Your SOS is bad.

Forget the SOS. Yes, it's a terrible number. Beat Bennett up about it all off-season about scheduling. But it's WCC crunch time and nobody on that court tonight is thinking about SOS. My estimate: 10-15% chance of Gaels winning in Spokane. Here's the breakpoint, Gaels do win when scoring less than 70 points but the carrying statistic over the last 3+ years is when SMC scores more than 70 points they are 100-9. If the Treys are falling look out. Enjoy the game and life.

rennis
01-10-2013, 07:06 PM
How many of those 9 70 point losses came at the hands of the might Bulldogs!?!!!???

Go Gonzaga!!!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

RenoZag
01-10-2013, 09:23 PM
Zags win by 8 in an ugly foul plagued travesty of officiating.

Well, I had the points part wrong. . .

IrishZagFan
01-11-2013, 09:28 AM
Final Score:
Zags 83
Gaels 78

3rd Only 5 off the total




Gonzaga 85
Gaerls 75


2nd Only 4 off the total


I think we pull this one out with a last-second shot in a pretty high scoring affair:

Thus,

35% = 83
40% = 82

1st WINNER! Only 2 off the total


Smc comes to play....Zags 82 SMC 79

Nice job jim77!

Reborn
01-11-2013, 10:20 AM
Alright! It's gameday finally, and one of the best days of the year is the day when we play St. Mary's the fist time, especially when it's in K2. The students are coming back early and are going to be really really ready to get the Kennel hot. I'm so excited and wonder who's going to light the fire tonight and get those fans rocking. I have a feeling that we're going to see the Zags ready to go all out in this one. MMMMmmmm How sweet it is. So many fans here on GUBoards have asked, "How do we stop Delly?" The bigger question is how are the Gaels going to stop Kelly and Elias? And I have a feeling that our shooters are going to be ready tonight.

I really do hope to see the Zags hit 10 3 pointers tonight. I hope to see Pangos get 30 but have a feeling it could be Kelly again. And I would certainly love to see Mike Hart get a dozen points. That would also be a great scenario. But what I would like the most is just to see the guys yelling and screaming and smiling after the game tonight. Finally what I really hope to see is a scoreboard that says Home 93 Guests 73.

Mmmmmmm I didn't get alot of the things that I had hoped for. Maybe a little unrealistic last night. Kelly was the one who got the 30, and to my surprise the Zags didn't seem to feel good about their victory. I kind of know how they felt. I didn't either. It was more a feeling of relief as they were aware that they barely dodged the bullet. However! Congrats go out to the Zags for a great win. Beating St. Mary's is no small matter...ever. :clap::clap: