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View Full Version : What seed can Gonzaga expect?



23dpg
12-24-2012, 09:17 PM
I care less about ranking than seeding. I found this paragraph at CBSSports interesting.

Something you should know: If you missed last week's Pyramid, I want to repeat something so important, so impressive and so rare: Gonzaga has played seven games against the KenPom.com top 100, winning six of them. That's better than any other team on this list both in games played and games won. By the time 2013 gets here, the former number will leap to nine and could be at 12 within the next three weeks. It's going to amount to a record-setting seed for the Zags if they lose five games or less this season. (Absolutely possible.)

I'm not sure I'm that optimistic but I sure hope he's right.

Oregonzagnut
12-24-2012, 11:20 PM
Preseason, I expected a 4-5 seed. As usual. After PAcific I expected a 1 seed.
Now I expect a 3 seed. I think we can get a 1-2 seed still, but we have to win 2 of the 3 OOC games we have left. (Baylor, OK ST, Butler) If we win all three, and sweep conference we could be a 1 seed by virtue of being a top 3 ranked team and zero bad losses. Plus we would be in the top 10 in almost every power statistical ranking there is, along with top 25 RPI

I expect the selection committee will not reward us if the WCC is perceived as weak as it is starting to look. We will need to average 15-20 pt wins throughout the conference to make a statement that we truly dominate. Butler is spaced perfectly within our conference and if we can beat Butler, that game will be memorable for the selection committee to key onto and reward us.

However, having expectations is a trap on this board. If you have high expectations, you are building hype and putting pressure on kids. If expectations are low, you don't support the team and are a negative nancy. So I am going to try to take the bait out of the trap.

I expect (think we will get) a 2-3 seed. Even if we are ranked top 5, there will be AP ranked Top 5 teams that will have much higher RPI's than we do and the selection committee will take the safe picks instead of a 15-20 RPI mid major.

caduceus
12-25-2012, 01:59 AM
Not sure I agree that our seed would necessarily be "record setting" with 5 or fewer losses. There's a lot of basketball to be played at this point. Since seeding is not an objective science, it makes it further difficult to predict a seed, especially at this point.

Looking at more objective factors (which aren't always weighed that heavily by the committee) like RPI and SOS, we can probably assume at this point that we'll remain in the top 40 by the end of the season, even if we end up 22-8.

In the unlikely event that we run the table the rest of the season (29-1), you can expect GU's RPI to be near the top 8, and more than likely a 2 or maybe even a 1 seed. Two losses would very likely keep us in the top 10 RPI-wise, and probably a seeding that's concordant with that.

Five losses (25-5) probably will put us in the 20 range, so we're probably talking near 5 seed territory. By Sagarin's predictor, this is the final record that his algorithm predicts based on data at this point in the season, with 26-4 about as likely as 25-5. Of course, those are only statistical probabilities which only become certainties after the games are actually played. I'm certainly hoping we'll do better than 5 losses.

The two OOC away games (OK St. and Butler) would undoubtedly help our cause if we could win those games. The higher RPI opponents in the WCC also carry significant weight (St. Mary's, Santa Clara, and BYU in that order), especially since we play them multiple times. A win over OK St. will help us statistically much more than, say, a loss to SF or Pep will hurt us, actually.

It's a fun exercise, but since it's not even January yet, there are too many variables to really ballpark much. The bottom line is keep winning, and beat the remaining good teams for a high seed.

GoZags
12-25-2012, 05:28 AM
"record setting" would have to equal a #1 Seed, as '04's Zag squad got a 2 seed (followed up with #3 seeds in '05 and '06.

As I've mentioned before, during that 3 year stretch only Gonzaga and Duke* finished back to back to back in the Top 10 RPI. Too bad the Zags only won 4 NCAA tourney games during that stretch.

Edited to add: FWIW Duke was RPI 1,4,1 in that stretch and Gonzaga was 9,10,10 -- so it wasn't really all that close -- but no other program finished Top 10 back to back to back those years.

sheps001
12-25-2012, 05:54 AM
I am a real novice on seeding but whatever seed we get it will be closer to home this time as we were away last year. This should help. Where does the preferential seeding end? Is it at 4 or 5? Thanks

TacomaZAG
12-25-2012, 07:23 AM
I'm with OrZ-Nut on the seeding issue, with the exception that I don't see any way to get a #1 seed. It has nothing to do with our record, our RPI, Strength of Schedule, or anything other than there are only 4 of those #1 seeds and they will not go to any team outside the BCS conferences.

That being said, a 1-seed is no different than a 2-seed, from a bracket standpoint, IMHO, as the difference between the typical 3 and 4 seeds is miniscule.

A 3-seed is about as good as is possible for the guys, IMHO, given the conference realities, with a 2-seed only a small possibility even if we go undefeated the rest of the way. I am ecstatic with either a 2 or a 3, as it keeps the team on the west coast for as long as possible and keeps us playing lower seeds for the first 3 games.

For a good seeding (2 or 3), we MUST avoid any conference road loss that isn't BYU or St. Mary's, and we MUST win at least one of those games. Also, we MUST hold serve in conference at home.

I love our chances, and I love the scheduling this year. Got to beat Baylor and at least split on the road against OSU and Butler. If we do all that, we have at most 3 losses, and more importantly, no bad losses.

It's a big hill but we have a lot of climbers this year.

Go ZAGS

GoZags
12-25-2012, 07:27 AM
Winning the WCC tourney plays an integral part of any decent seed.


I'm with OrZ-Nut on the seeding issue, with the exception that I don't see any way to get a #1 seed. It has nothing to do with our record, our RPI, Strength of Schedule, or anything other than there are only 4 of those #1 seeds and they will not go to any team outside the BCS conferences.

That being said, a 1-seed is no different than a 2-seed, from a bracket standpoint, IMHO, as the difference between the typical 3 and 4 seeds is miniscule.

A 3-seed is about as good as is possible for the guys, IMHO, given the conference realities, with a 2-seed only a small possibility even if we go undefeated the rest of the way. I am ecstatic with either a 2 or a 3, as it keeps the team on the west coast for as long as possible and keeps us playing lower seeds for the first 3 games.

For a good seeding (2 or 3), we MUST avoid any conference road loss that isn't BYU or St. Mary's, and we MUST win at least one of those games. Also, we MUST hold serve in conference at home.

I love our chances, and I love the scheduling this year. Got to beat Baylor and at least split on the road against OSU and Butler. If we do all that, we have at most 3 losses, and more importantly, no bad losses.

It's a big hill but we have a lot of climbers this year.

Go ZAGS

jazzdelmar
12-25-2012, 08:00 AM
4...wcc kills this year.

Pleasant Peninsula
12-25-2012, 09:25 AM
I'm with OrZ-Nut on the seeding issue, with the exception that I don't see any way to get a #1 seed. It has nothing to do with our record, our RPI, Strength of Schedule, or anything other than there are only 4 of those #1 seeds and they will not go to any team outside the BCS conferences.


Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, a non-power 6 school has earned a #1 seed nine times, including twice recently by Memphis and one by St. Joseph's in 2004. So it's certainly not impossible. Gonzaga at 29-1 with their schedule in this year's landscape would be a shoo-in for a #1 seed.

bartruff1
12-25-2012, 10:16 AM
A four seed...about 6 losses..

primal23
12-25-2012, 10:33 AM
I agree with Bart, losses being @okst, @butler, @smc, @byu and @ either usf or sc

Oregonzagnut
12-25-2012, 10:51 AM
If the WCC is so bad that it kills our RPI, and destroys our seeding chances, then why are we losing games to WCC teams almost every year? Why did we not win the conference last year?

Personally I think we can go 16-0 in conference. If we lose at all, it will be either at BYU or SMC. But if we go less than 15-1 it will be a disappointment to me and just one loss in conference will ruin our 1-2 seed chances. Santa Clara is the wild card so far this year, not USF, but we may overlook a team at any point in the year so we have to play to dominate and forget easing up to make it classy.

My premiss for getting a 1 seed is that we must end the regular season with 1 loss. Not realistic since other teams have to lose 1 as well.

But it is possible we can get a 1 seed. Not expected by me though.

jazzdelmar
12-25-2012, 11:04 AM
f the WCC is so bad that it kills our RPI, and destroys our seeding chances, then why are we losing games to WCC teams almost every year? Why did we not win the conference last year?


thats what i'd like to know.

bartruff1
12-25-2012, 11:10 AM
I agree with Bart, losses being @okst, @butler, @smc, @byu and @ either usf or sc...IF....Gonzaga can win a couple road games and the WCC Conference and the Tourney....depending upon what others do in the big six... they might...just might...get a 3...but you can only control what you do so...... keep winning !!!

rennis
12-25-2012, 11:30 AM
I say they land a 4 seed in a crappy region. The East maybe, with Duke as the 1 seed.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Virginia Zags Fan
12-25-2012, 11:38 AM
Like the analysis above, but take issue with the 3 not being that different than the 4 seed. It is a HUGE difference. If you are a 3 seed playing a 2 seed, that is tremendously better than playing any of the 1 seeds as a 4 seed. My preferences for seeds would be the following: 1,2,3,6,7. I know some would say 1,2,3,4 and take their chances.

With all of that said, I would just be happy if the guys beat Baylor this upcoming weekend. If they do, that will be a huge first step.

TacomaZAG
12-25-2012, 11:42 AM
I didn't realize a non-power conference team had been the 1-seed that often. If Memphis and St. Joes can do it, why not the ZAGS??? Also, I agree that winning the WCC Tourney is a must for a good seed.

I still think a 3-seed is about as good as we can do, but if we go 29-1 or even 28-2 with a loss to Okie St. or Butler I'll be watching Selection Sunday with a keg of Kool-Aid next to me.

Go ZAGS...........(Burp....)

sheps001
12-25-2012, 11:44 AM
I say they land a 4 seed in a crappy region. The East maybe, with Duke as the 1 seed.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
If they get a 4 don't they get preferential seeding nearby?

BobZag
12-25-2012, 11:45 AM
A team implosion and collapse gives der Zags a 9 seed.

GoZags
12-25-2012, 11:49 AM
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, a non-power 6 school has earned a #1 seed nine times, including twice recently by Memphis and one by St. Joseph's in 2004. So it's certainly not impossible. Gonzaga at 29-1 with their schedule in this year's landscape would be a shoo-in for a #1 seed.

All due respect but all 29-1 does is get Gonzaga to the final WCC regular season game against Portland. If they were to win that, then win the WCC tourney they'd be 32-1 (and I agree -- that'd look good for a #1 seed).

In the meantime .....

Beat Baylor.

ZagLawGrad
12-25-2012, 11:57 AM
Still gotta get by two tough teams yet in 2012. And we're already talking about seeding....:confused:

bartruff1
12-25-2012, 11:58 AM
I say they land a 4 seed in a crappy region. The East maybe, with Duke as the 1 seed.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

That is just where Joey Brackets has them ... with teams like Kentucky, Mich. State and North Carolina among others with higher seeds...sooo.... who knows...not even the Shadow..

GoZags
12-25-2012, 12:15 PM
Still gotta get by two tough teams yet in 2012. And we're already talking about seeding....:confused:

Good point.

Listen up everyone ....... there will be NO more discussing seeds until after the WCC tourney has concluded.

There.

That's settled.

Oregonzagnut
12-25-2012, 12:29 PM
Winning the WCC tourney plays an integral part of any decent seed.

Yes it does, so IMO we need to go 18-0 in the WCC to get a 1-2 seed.

If we go 17-1 in WCC but don't win the championship, we would lose the 1-2 seed.

But ending our regular season with 2 losses would IMO, get us at least a 3 seed.

kyle dixon
12-25-2012, 12:34 PM
My wife gives me the 1 seed after Xmas today as do the 2 girls. At work I am a 3 seed, but rising fast in lunardis book. Merry Xmas and oh yeah, Beat Baylor! Merry Xmas Zag Nation!

23dpg
12-25-2012, 01:40 PM
My original post was mainly pointing out that a national sportswriter had GU pegged for a "historical seeding" with 4 losses. Again, I hope he's right but I doubt it. I had forgotten that GU received a #2 seed before and assumed that's what he was talking about. My guess is that a #2 seed could have only 2 losses, maybe 3.

The polls are fun but they're mostly about who else lost that week. The seedings are more about how your team has played.

DixieZag
12-25-2012, 02:56 PM
Any of the folks that think the Zags can or should go through the conference undefeated - if you would like a chance to make some money on the deal - please P.M. me and put any dollar value you choose to wager and I will take the 2 loss (or greater).

The Zags are the most talented, deep, athletic and best team in the WCC - but the conference is a tough slough - ANY team even Mich - Duke etc. would have difficulty going through with less than 2 losses. If GU could hold serve at home, win at either SMC or BYU and lose one "wild card" game - which would equal 2 losses and nearly guarantee a conference championship that would be a fantastic season.

If we win 2 out of 3 against Baylor/Ok State/Butler, and 2 conference losses that would be a 4 loss season and would put us in pretty good position for a 3 seed. If would could eliminate the "wild card" loss - that would put us in good position for a 3. But, if history tells us anything, wild card losses haunt every conference and we will be lucky to have but one.

We should have beaten Illinois. We are lucky that K-State is playing better.

KStyles
12-25-2012, 04:03 PM
If they get a 4 don't they get preferential seeding nearby?

Usually, for the opening rounds (rounds 2 & 3). Duke, as a 1 seed, wouldn't be at the same site as the 4 seed in rounds 2 & 3, so GU could still get to play out West (SLC/San Jose) for the opening 2 games in that scenario, before heading East for the regional rounds. Long ways until March, though.

MDABE80
12-25-2012, 04:40 PM
Depends on if we win out ocer Baylor, Butler and Ok St. We' ll lose 2 in league.
Likely it depends on the big 3 coming up. WCC is still not regarded highley.
We show up with 4-5 losses, we'll be a 5 or 6 seed. If we have 4 losses a 4. 3 a 3 seed etc. If we finish with 1 loss, a 1 seed.

LynetteG
12-25-2012, 08:08 PM
I have tickets for SLC, so come on ZAGS!!!!!!

MDABE80
12-25-2012, 08:36 PM
Merry Christmas Lynette!

allbusiness_zag
12-25-2012, 09:51 PM
Whatever seed gets us in San Jose. :drool:
I'm going to the SCU, SMC, and USF games, so we should be covered for those wins. ;)

CDC84
12-25-2012, 10:12 PM
Speaking of seeding, Arizona is on the fast track to being the number one seed out west. They just finished non-league play undefeated, and they're by far and away the best and most talented team in the Pac 12. It's a team that has all the makings of a 30 win BCS team. Another thing: they have a magical ability to make plays and win games in crunch time. That helps on the road in league play. Mark Lyons is one of the most dangerous players in America with the ball in his hands and seconds remaining. Just ISO him and let him go to work.

TheGonzagaFactor
12-25-2012, 11:18 PM
I agree with Bart, losses being @okst, @butler, @smc, @byu and @ either usf or sc

If that came to pass, this team would be utterly disappointing. A loss to this SMC team would show we are pretenders and not contenders.

Oregonzagnut
12-25-2012, 11:34 PM
If that came to pass, this team would be utterly disappointing. A loss to this SMC team would show we are pretenders and not contenders.

I agree. But personally I think we are good enough to go undefeated in conference. Whether we do or not is the issue.

If I look at any team in the WCC and say they could beat us, I can't. Not BYU, Not SMC, Not USF or SClara. But inevitably we do lose a game we should not have lost.

I think we end the season with 3 losses and a three seed.

bartruff1
12-26-2012, 06:12 AM
How you react of course is entirely up to you. For me, it has been a very enjoyable season to date and I expect it will be even better when WCC play starts.

SteelCityZag
12-26-2012, 06:51 AM
I'd be very surprised if we lose more than one WCC game this year. Sure teams in conference get up to play us and "give us their best shot", but we have too many horses this year. Beating teams for the third time in Vegas at the WCC tournament should be the biggest challenge this team faces (no small task).

We have superior talent at 4 positions out of 5 against every team in the WCC. The gap hasn't been this wide in a long time.

If we drop more than one game in conference, shame on us.

Zaga
12-26-2012, 06:54 AM
A team implosion and collapse gives der Zags a 9 seed.
Just wondering BobZag if you could elaborate on your comments. If true, who is the catalyst?

FieldHouseFishHouse
12-26-2012, 07:15 AM
number of losses=eventual seed.

if number of losses<6

bigblahla
12-26-2012, 08:09 AM
Just wondering BobZag if you could elaborate on your comments. If true, who is the catalyst?

Hmmmmn, me thinks you're not familiar with BZ's Doomsayer approach?

Pumpkin seeds are OK but if I had my choice sunflower are the best.

As far as losing to a WCC team could happen in any game on the road not as likely at home. Why? Nothing has changed we're still the biggest game on their schedule and of course for SMC and their coach who went to Chicken Romar's school for foul scheduling beating GU will decide the outcome of their post season appearance. I scoff at those who think SMC belongs in the same sentence as GU as far as a national profile is concerned.

Nothing has changed in the WCC our brethren play play few OOC games that enhance the conference reputation maybe a half dozen or so spread among them all and they didn't finish them well. Any loss in conference this year will be considered a bad loss.

Every WCC team will be at their best on their home floor against us you can count on it.

As far as how we finish our OOC schedule there is no reason we can't beat both Baylor and OSU. A tough game at home and an even tougher game on the road but both are winnable. Butler at Hinkle could be the test of all tests and the most significant feather in our cap come seeding time if we prevail. Butler will be the best TEAM we play before post season.

As far as our seed in "The Dance" we're playing for a 4 seed anything higher and we have had a very good year.

Just my opinion.

Go!! Zags!!!

mgadfly
12-26-2012, 10:58 AM
Objectively speaking, the WCC is fairly strong this season. It has the 10th rated conference RPI and a sizable lead on #11 (CUSA). It is ranked 10th in the Kenpom conference ratings with a sizable lead on #11 (CUSA). The conference is considerably better than it was from 2006 to 2010. The last time it was better (rated 10th but with better "internals") was 2005.


A loss in the WCC may not kill our seed like it would in some other seasons.

We will win 2 of 3 non-conference games. I think it will be really hard to beat both BYU and SMC on the road. We may lose to both of them. Someone else (either BYU or SMC at our place or one of the other WCCers will give us a surprise loss or two). We will then win the WCC tournament. 13-3 or 14-2 WCC record and 13-2 OCC record + 2-0 in the WCC tourney. We finish 28-5 and get a ... 4 seed (if there is a "bad" loss) or 3 seed (if the losses are limited to SMC, SMC, BYU, Illini, OK St. If we are 29-4 we get the three seed. 30-3 = 2 seed.

Go Zags.

ZagaZags
12-26-2012, 10:31 PM
I just got my tickets in the mail for The GU vs San Diego on Feb 2 in San Diego. 5 rows behind GU bench. I cant wait.

Hoopaholic
12-27-2012, 06:47 AM
Sweet....we just got ours for the weekend as well (LMU on Thursday)
We are Section 22 Row 5 for USD
Going to be a great weekend of hoops in southern california

Martin Centre Mad Man
12-27-2012, 07:13 AM
I agree. But personally I think we are good enough to go undefeated in conference. Whether we do or not is the issue.

If I look at any team in the WCC and say they could beat us, I can't. Not BYU, Not SMC, Not USF or SClara. But inevitably we do lose a game we should not have lost.


The talent gap between Gonzaga and the next three teams in the league is bigger than it has been in a long time. Our starting five is the best in the league. Our bench is the best in the league. If our kids play hard with a bit of nastiness and swagger, take care of the ball, and fight for forty minutes in each game, they can take the best shot from every team in the league and still go undefeated. If they get sloppy with turnovers, lose focus on defense, miss too many free throws, or allow opponents to beat them to the 50/50 balls, they can lose. It is really that simple.

willandi
12-27-2012, 08:04 AM
Persimmon or Bitter Almond!

Gonzdb8
12-27-2012, 08:29 AM
The talent gap between Gonzaga and the next three teams in the league is bigger than it has been in a long time. Our starting five is the best in the league. Our bench is the best in the league. If our kids play hard with a bit of nastiness and swagger, take care of the ball, and fight for forty minutes in each game, they can take the best shot from every team in the league and still go undefeated. If they get sloppy with turnovers, lose focus on defense, miss too many free throws, or allow opponents to beat them to the 50/50 balls, they can lose. It is really that simple.

+1. exactly. certainly a tough task but if we play our game there isn't a team in the wcc that can beat us. were bigger, stronger, faster and more skilled. but its tough to beat the field across an entire conference slate no matter how much better you are. 1-2 losses wouldn't be a shock.

cjm720
12-27-2012, 08:53 AM
I'd say we'll get a seed between 2-7.

dnj116
12-27-2012, 09:17 AM
I'd say we'll get a seed between 2-7.

Going out on a limb here, but I'd say that's a safe bet.
:cheers:

rennis
12-27-2012, 09:44 AM
I'd say we'll get a seed between 2-7.

ION, I'd say it's either partly sunny with rain showers, or mostly cloudy with showers here in Seattle tomorrow.