What seed can Gonzaga expect?

[23dpg]

I care less about ranking than seeding. I found this paragraph at CBSSports interesting.

Something you should know: If you missed last week's Pyramid, I want to repeat something so important, so impressive and so rare: Gonzaga has played seven games against the KenPom.com top 100, winning six of them. That's better than any other team on this list both in games played and games won. By the time 2013 gets here, the former number will leap to nine and could be at 12 within the next three weeks. It's going to amount to a record-setting seed for the Zags if they lose five games or less this season. (Absolutely possible.)

I'm not sure I'm that optimistic but I sure hope he's right.

[Oregonzagnut]

Preseason, I expected a 4-5 seed. As usual. After PAcific I expected a 1 seed.
Now I expect a 3 seed. I think we can get a 1-2 seed still, but we have to win 2 of the 3 OOC games we have left. (Baylor, OK ST, Butler) If we win all three, and sweep conference we could be a 1 seed by virtue of being a top 3 ranked team and zero bad losses. Plus we would be in the top 10 in almost every power statistical ranking there is, along with top 25 RPI

I expect the selection committee will not reward us if the WCC is perceived as weak as it is starting to look. We will need to average 15-20 pt wins throughout the conference to make a statement that we truly dominate. Butler is spaced perfectly within our conference and if we can beat Butler, that game will be memorable for the selection committee to key onto and reward us.

However, having expectations is a trap on this board. If you have high expectations, you are building hype and putting pressure on kids. If expectations are low, you don't support the team and are a negative nancy. So I am going to try to take the bait out of the trap.

I expect (think we will get) a 2-3 seed. Even if we are ranked top 5, there will be AP ranked Top 5 teams that will have much higher RPI's than we do and the selection committee will take the safe picks instead of a 15-20 RPI mid major.

[caduceus]

Not sure I agree that our seed would necessarily be "record setting" with 5 or fewer losses. There's a lot of basketball to be played at this point. Since seeding is not an objective science, it makes it further difficult to predict a seed, especially at this point.

Looking at more objective factors (which aren't always weighed that heavily by the committee) like RPI and SOS, we can probably assume at this point that we'll remain in the top 40 by the end of the season, even if we end up 22-8.

In the unlikely event that we run the table the rest of the season (29-1), you can expect GU's RPI to be near the top 8, and more than likely a 2 or maybe even a 1 seed. Two losses would very likely keep us in the top 10 RPI-wise, and probably a seeding that's concordant with that.

Five losses (25-5) probably will put us in the 20 range, so we're probably talking near 5 seed territory. By Sagarin's predictor, this is the final record that his algorithm predicts based on data at this point in the season, with 26-4 about as likely as 25-5. Of course, those are only statistical probabilities which only become certainties after the games are actually played. I'm certainly hoping we'll do better than 5 losses.

The two OOC away games (OK St. and Butler) would undoubtedly help our cause if we could win those games. The higher RPI opponents in the WCC also carry significant weight (St. Mary's, Santa Clara, and BYU in that order), especially since we play them multiple times. A win over OK St. will help us statistically much more than, say, a loss to SF or Pep will hurt us, actually.

It's a fun exercise, but since it's not even January yet, there are too many variables to really ballpark much. The bottom line is keep winning, and beat the remaining good teams for a high seed.

[GoZags]

"record setting" would have to equal a #1 Seed, as '04's Zag squad got a 2 seed (followed up with #3 seeds in '05 and '06.

As I've mentioned before, during that 3 year stretch only Gonzaga and Duke* finished back to back to back in the Top 10 RPI. Too bad the Zags only won 4 NCAA tourney games during that stretch.

Edited to add: FWIW Duke was RPI 1,4,1 in that stretch and Gonzaga was 9,10,10 -- so it wasn't really all that close -- but no other program finished Top 10 back to back to back those years.

[sheps001]

I am a real novice on seeding but whatever seed we get it will be closer to home this time as we were away last year. This should help. Where does the preferential seeding end? Is it at 4 or 5? Thanks

[TacomaZAG]

Seeding.........

I'm with OrZ-Nut on the seeding issue, with the exception that I don't see any way to get a #1 seed. It has nothing to do with our record, our RPI, Strength of Schedule, or anything other than there are only 4 of those #1 seeds and they will not go to any team outside the BCS conferences.

That being said, a 1-seed is no different than a 2-seed, from a bracket standpoint, IMHO, as the difference between the typical 3 and 4 seeds is miniscule.

A 3-seed is about as good as is possible for the guys, IMHO, given the conference realities, with a 2-seed only a small possibility even if we go undefeated the rest of the way. I am ecstatic with either a 2 or a 3, as it keeps the team on the west coast for as long as possible and keeps us playing lower seeds for the first 3 games.

For a good seeding (2 or 3), we MUST avoid any conference road loss that isn't BYU or St. Mary's, and we MUST win at least one of those games. Also, we MUST hold serve in conference at home.

I love our chances, and I love the scheduling this year. Got to beat Baylor and at least split on the road against OSU and Butler. If we do all that, we have at most 3 losses, and more importantly, no bad losses.

It's a big hill but we have a lot of climbers this year.

Go ZAGS

[GoZags]

Winning the WCC tourney plays an integral part of any decent seed.

I'm with OrZ-Nut on the seeding issue, with the exception that I don't see any way to get a #1 seed. It has nothing to do with our record, our RPI, Strength of Schedule, or anything other than there are only 4 of those #1 seeds and they will not go to any team outside the BCS conferences.

That being said, a 1-seed is no different than a 2-seed, from a bracket standpoint, IMHO, as the difference between the typical 3 and 4 seeds is miniscule.

A 3-seed is about as good as is possible for the guys, IMHO, given the conference realities, with a 2-seed only a small possibility even if we go undefeated the rest of the way. I am ecstatic with either a 2 or a 3, as it keeps the team on the west coast for as long as possible and keeps us playing lower seeds for the first 3 games.

For a good seeding (2 or 3), we MUST avoid any conference road loss that isn't BYU or St. Mary's, and we MUST win at least one of those games. Also, we MUST hold serve in conference at home.

I love our chances, and I love the scheduling this year. Got to beat Baylor and at least split on the road against OSU and Butler. If we do all that, we have at most 3 losses, and more importantly, no bad losses.

It's a big hill but we have a lot of climbers this year.

Go ZAGS

[jazzdelmar]

4

4...wcc kills this year.

[Pleasant Peninsula]

I'm with OrZ-Nut on the seeding issue, with the exception that I don't see any way to get a #1 seed. It has nothing to do with our record, our RPI, Strength of Schedule, or anything other than there are only 4 of those #1 seeds and they will not go to any team outside the BCS conferences.

Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, a non-power 6 school has earned a #1 seed nine times, including twice recently by Memphis and one by St. Joseph's in 2004. So it's certainly not impossible. Gonzaga at 29-1 with their schedule in this year's landscape would be a shoo-in for a #1 seed.

[bartruff1]

A four seed...about 6 losses..

[primal23]

I agree with Bart, losses being @okst, @butler, @smc, @byu and @ either usf or sc

[Oregonzagnut]

If the WCC is so bad that it kills our RPI, and destroys our seeding chances, then why are we losing games to WCC teams almost every year? Why did we not win the conference last year?

Personally I think we can go 16-0 in conference. If we lose at all, it will be either at BYU or SMC. But if we go less than 15-1 it will be a disappointment to me and just one loss in conference will ruin our 1-2 seed chances. Santa Clara is the wild card so far this year, not USF, but we may overlook a team at any point in the year so we have to play to dominate and forget easing up to make it classy.

My premiss for getting a 1 seed is that we must end the regular season with 1 loss. Not realistic since other teams have to lose 1 as well.

But it is possible we can get a 1 seed. Not expected by me though.

[jazzdelmar]

f the WCC is so bad that it kills our RPI, and destroys our seeding chances, then why are we losing games to WCC teams almost every year? Why did we not win the conference last year?


thats what i'd like to know.

[bartruff1]

I agree with Bart, losses being @okst, @butler, @smc, @byu and @ either usf or sc

...IF....Gonzaga can win a couple road games and the WCC Conference and the Tourney....depending upon what others do in the big six... they might...just might...get a 3...but you can only control what you do so...... keep winning !!!

[rennis]

I say they land a 4 seed in a crappy region. The East maybe, with Duke as the 1 seed.


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