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Zag
12-11-2012, 10:49 AM
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents _3p

Interesting post by Ken Pom on 3 point defense. Anyone know how Gonzaga measures up versus the rest of the WCC/NCAA in how many 3 points shots attempted against GU a game?

KStyles
12-11-2012, 12:23 PM
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/opponent-three-pointers-attempted-per-game

I didn't go through and compare against the other WCC teams, but it appears GU is near the bottom of the NCAA (#319 / 347), with 22.2 three point attempts allowed per game this year (in games against other D-I teams).

GU moves up to #283 in three points goals allowed (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/opponent-three-pointers-made-per-game), with 7.2 per game. That's 32.5% three point shooting allowed, which ranks GU at 144th. Providence leads the percentage category (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/opponent-three-point-pct) at 21.3%.

Oregonzagnut
12-11-2012, 12:38 PM
KenPom is saying that 3 pt % isn't the most important stat. 3 pt defense is better measured by the number or ratio of 3 pt shots taken to 2 pt sots taken.

What is the % of 3's taken out of the total shots taken.

So Gonzaga allows too many threes to be shot. Makes sense. But some teams know that is what they have to do to beat us.

So do we really have a "reputation" that makes teams think they have to get hot from 3 to beat us?

KStyles
12-11-2012, 12:39 PM
Looking over the article & stats,an interesting thing I noticed for Saturday is that K-State ranks 18th in opponent 3PA, with 13.3 per game, and 10th in opponent 3PM, with 3.6 per game (which is mostly a by-product of only allowing 13 three point shots a game).

KStyles
12-11-2012, 12:47 PM
KenPom is saying that 3 pt % isn't the most important stat. 3 pt defense is better measured by the number or ratio of 3 pt shots taken to 2 pt sots taken.

The ratio of 3 point attempts allowed to total field goal attempts allowed I believe is on the opponent three point rate page (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/opponent-three-point-rate), Gonzaga is #322 in the NCAA, with a rate of 40.0% (22.2/55.6)

Oregonzagnut
12-11-2012, 01:40 PM
The ratio of 3 point attempts allowed to total field goal attempts allowed I believe is on the opponent three point rate page (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/opponent-three-point-rate), Gonzaga is #322 in the NCAA, with a rate of 40.0% (22.2/55.6)

With the reputation of our front court and our bigs, it does not surprise me to think every team we play feels they must shoot half their shots from the 3 to stay in the game.

Now Illinois proven blueprint for teams to use to beat us. But it is still contingent on all three of our guards being cold from the 3 too.

Illinois had the right plan, we got away from what was working, and Pangos and Bell went cold.

All the stars aligned in the Illini's favor last Saturday.

zagfan1970
12-11-2012, 07:11 PM
That at 296th is Long Beach State (37.7%), at 322nd is Gonzaga (40.0%), and just behind the Zags at 331st is Boise State (40.8%) of opponents % of 3pt shots???

Seems to be a contagion spreading from the Kennel

SteelZag
12-11-2012, 07:43 PM
That at 296th is Long Beach State (37.7%), at 322nd is Gonzaga (40.0%), and just behind the Zags at 331st is Boise State (40.8%) of opponents % of 3pt shots???

Seems to be a contagion spreading from the Kennel

Not funny at all! But I did chuckle. Where is USD?

Baldwinzag
12-12-2012, 04:46 AM
Is it a coincidence? That at 296th is Long Beach State (37.7%), at 322nd is Gonzaga (40.0%), and just behind the Zags at 331st is Boise State (40.8%) of opponents % of 3pt shots???


A rather interesting quote by Coach Giacoletti following the Illinois game:


"We're not gonna stop them from taking them," Giacoletti said. "But we have to keep them from making them."

I'm not so sure, but isn't that logic a bit flawed? Keep in mind, we're nearly dead last in 3pt shoots attempted as well as made. Hmmm....

How 'bout we try and stop them of making them and also do our best to keep them taking them? Conceivably, you could switch the italicized words above and it may make better defensive sense, but just a thought.

After watching Norfolk St last night, I realized we seem to WANT opposing teams to attempt 3's and allow law of averages to [hopefully] play out -- at least that is the only explanation for Coach Few scrapping the 3-2 extended defense for a sagging 2-3 and packed M2M.

Also, something Norfolk St did, and we never do, was keep their hands up along the perimeter.

Just watch our best defenders on the perimeter i.e. Mike Hart, GBJ, even Kelly Olynyk vs Wash St and/or Illinois....

Hands go up in opponents face after they've released the shot, not before, and rarely during. Our defensive set is to keep hands low, extended, behind our hips, essentially blocking the passing lanes to post players underneath or in the middle. Its probably what they practice considering we pass in the post so often, yet Illinois never does and never did and our game played out as well like we'd never seen tape on them or Top-10 pick, Brandon Paul. Reminds me of the WSU game, when DeVonte Lacy(their top 3pt sniper) and Motum hovered along the 3pt line when we were up 10. We still defended low and to the middle. Lacy shoots 3's and so does Brock when he's floating, yet GBJ, nor KO acted like they'd ever attempted a 3 in their lives, playing both like they were going to dribble-drive to the hoop or they were Meech Goodson or something.

I recall an earlier interview with Coach Krause as well, he spoke about 3pt averages, %, shooting, etc...his philosophy was centered on 'law of averages' playing out. The old "live by the 3, die by the 3" was highlighted and it was about defending inside the perimeter successfully, not outside. Well, do a fantastic job within the 3pt line, we really do, our switches, rotations, spacing is nearly textbook, yet our 3pt defense is pathetic, nearly non-existent. Unless, its a healthy GBJ pressuring the ball and that is about it.

My only concern listening to Coach Krause -- all players, small, medium, large, athletic or not, shoot the ball nearly 15% points better (on average) than they did 20 years ago. Meaning, its not just the PG or skinny white kid launching and making 3's anymore -- its post players, team strategies, all styles of players and making them at a high clip. For instance, some teams are as high as 45% this season, which is same as their FG%.

Its kinda like the evolvement and development of Spread Offenses in football. Many traditional or conservative Coaches refuse or simply don't know how to adapt. Its not just about 'stopping the run' anymore, but rather the QB from running, the RB from passing, etc.

We must adjust and adapt. Or just like every NCAA Tourney game since 2006, we've been burned by 3pt line. same with nearly every time we've faced Illinois, they shot 42% from 3pt or better.....or when we lose to WCC teams....heck, ranked nearly dead last in 3pt shots attempted PLUS 3pt shots made should be telling.

Honestly, if you examine 95% of our NCAA Tourney and OOC losses since 2001, save Ohio St last year, the opposing team has made double-digit 3pt shots. As some point, someone must say, "Get with the program".

You can do both -- defend inside, give our 7' foot players a bit more trust in stopping the dribble-drive, rely on our terrific rotations, spacing, and fundamental inside the perimeter and shut it down along it. What do you think teams are doing to us lately -- pressuring our guards, limiting open looks, and shutting down passing lanes as a result.

As long as we play teams like Oklahoma, Clemson, West Va, who can't shoot a lick from 3pt as a team, we d.o.m.i.n.a.t.e. and hold them below 50-60 pts, yet the moment a team is even close to 40% from 3pt...I predict Game Over. Just review my prediction threads on those games. I say they will hit double-digit 3's for this defense, and time after time after time, they do.

Keep in mind, nearly every team that makes the NCAA Tourney can shoot 3's or have a player or two that is more than capable. The BCS teams we beat up in OOC play and earn high reputations on aren't usually the ones in the Tourney b/c they can't shoot from 3pt and we shine.

the good news, neither Baylor or K-State shoot well from 3pt, so if the past is any indication, we utilize our size and 100% dedication to packing the middle and daring them to shoot the long-range jumper = we win.

That said, Butler has two tremendous 3pt shooters and so does Oklahoma St, so if the past is any indication, we utilize our size and 100% dedication to packing the middle and daring them to shoot the long-range jumper = we lose.

Just watch how it will play out. The writing is on the wall for numerous years now.

We'll most likely hold both Baylor & K-State to sub 60 pts and gain a couple solid wins. I'll talk it, yet we'll also allow both Okie St & Butler to launch 20+ 3's, they'll hit 10+, and we'll lose these games(unless they go cold as ice). An early prediction, if you will. It gets old, kinda like this ranting post, but if anyone can please show me in the past 7 years a loss in the NCAA Tourney and even OOC where the opposing team DID NOT hit double-digit 3's, which btw, is not the norm for most teams' defense.

zagfan1970
12-12-2012, 09:47 AM
Not funny at all! But I did chuckle. Where is USD?


151st, but they really slow things down. They are 82nd in 3pt shots allowed. So with less possessions for their opponent it would take much to swing the numbers. If they played Illinois and they jacked up 25 3's [I] could see USD in the 200-300 ranking with the rest of the Zag kin.

zagfan1970
12-12-2012, 09:48 AM
great post! Spot on-

I would also add, that it may NOT be a mystery to see a drop off in defense, with a drop off in substitutions! In the WSU game it was huge-no legs, no D. Versus Illinois, 4 guys with over 30 minutes? It is no coincidence that through 8 games we wore people down and on a few occasions came from behind and pulled away. Whereas, in the last 2 games we didn't sub frequently and we gave up big runs down the stretch and faded in both games.

Reborn
12-12-2012, 10:24 AM
I wonder why Mark Few is so closed minded and stubborn. Obviously he shows no willingness to change his defensive strategy. One way I used to defend was to overplay my opponent's strong hand and make him go the opposite way. The other important thing is to close out on the guy you're guarding in proper defensive position. Gonzaga,over the years is really bad at how they close out. The other thing I noticed Saturday was how sloppy Gonzaga was on D. It was their poorest showing of the year. It lacked intensity, which I saw in parts of the game, but definitely not throughout. I saw guys getting tired. However, when I looked at Illinois players they NEVER looked tired.

ONe solution might be for Few to do what he often does but did not do Saturday in the second half, mix up your defenses to try to maybe keep the offensive opponent off balance. Mix up your defense so they don't get set, and get too comfortable. I think Illinois mixed up their defenses very creatively the second half against GU, and I believe it helped them.

Zag
12-12-2012, 10:44 AM
The ratio of 3 point attempts allowed to total field goal attempts allowed I believe is on the opponent three point rate page (http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/opponent-three-point-rate), Gonzaga is #322 in the NCAA, with a rate of 40.0% (22.2/55.6)

Thanks for the link. Lots of good information on this site!

Interesting looking at the 2011 season as a whole. The NCAA average ratio was 32.94% opp. 3pt rate. GU finished with 34.2% which isn't that far off the average. If ranked that puts GU around 223 out of 347 teams listed last season.

In fact not many relevant teams were below the 30% mark over the course of last season. Wisconsin, Duke, St. Mary's, Davison, Kentucky, and Notre Dame may be the only notable teams with excellant perimeter defense last season based on this statistic. Interesting...I wonder if a team can even control the amount of 3pt shots taken in a game that much? Seems like over the course of a year about 1/3rd of any offense is going to be 3pt shooting no matter what the defense does.

CDC84
12-12-2012, 02:33 PM
Whether we think it's right or wrong, unlike other coaches, I just don't think Few thinks much of the kenpom.com stuff. Not every coach does. He measures the success of his teams in other ways.

My only concern with the kenpom.com thing on three pointers is that there are certain teams who shoot three pointers all game long no matter if the shooters are guarded by 7 footers 30 feet from the hoop. They are willing to take bad shots from deep because their whole program's philosophy is based around the 3 point shot. Something has to account for teams like that.
That being said, most teams aren't willing to take their 3 point shooting to that extreme. If the 3 line is defended well, most teams with decent offenses will take their offense elsewhere.

SteelZag
12-12-2012, 03:07 PM
"If the 3 line is defended well, most teams with decent offenses will take their offense elsewhere".

That may be the point of the OP.

Gonzaga doesn't always seem to have an interest in guarding the three point line at all.

If indeed Coach Few does believe the shooting percentages will average themselves out, I believe that is only if the three point line is guarded well. Most teams against us shoot the three as if they were in warm ups. Once they get hot there is nothing to really stop them from raining threes all game long.

gamagin
12-12-2012, 03:44 PM
"If the 3 line is defended well, most teams with decent offenses will take their offense elsewhere". That may be the point of the OP. Gonzaga doesn't always seem to have an interest in guarding the three point line at all. If indeed Coach Few does believe the shooting percentages will average themselves out, I believe that is only if the three point line is guarded well. Most teams against us shoot the three as if they were in warm ups. Once they get hot there is nothing to really stop them from raining threes all game long.

has stayed missing since the game ended.

What Few said, at least what I heard him say when asked on his show, is the Zags ran up against an NBA shooter who was on fire.

BUT. But, we had enough looks, and ran enough plays, and got enough wide open and open shots to our best shooters, to offset his impact, Ergo, we had the opportunity to win the game.

I don't think many on the GUB believe that. I do because I, too, watched a number of shots and potentially game changing plays & shots get away from us when we most needed them.

Had they gone in, one could guess someone on the other team's board would spend three days lamenting their poor 3 point defense.

The point, Few's point, too, being we both had enough good looks, in the final analysis, to win. They capitalized and we didn't.

I think for purposes of your post, Few IS saying the shooting percentages averaged themselves out. ANd it appears to be the case.

VaBeachZAG
12-13-2012, 07:44 AM
I think three point shooting averages do average out over time, but not necessarily in a given game (multiple games - yes, a single game - not neccessarily so). To me it just seems like poor strategy to not aggressively challenge hot three point shooters and hope at some point during the game they go cold, or Zags shooters can out pace hot shooting opponents. If that was the strategy Saturday, well, it failed miserably.

I didn't see the Norfolk State game, but the write-up in the local paper here quoted their coach that State's game plan was to "run them (Illini) off the 3-point line and try to make them beat us with 2s rather than 3s." Again, I didn't see the game, but the stats suggest State may have had some success in this regard. Illinois just made 6 threes (26%) against State.

An earlier poster also commented on the failure of some Zags players to get a hand in the face of 3-point shooters. I have noted that on numerous occassions this season Harris will run out to challenge a 3-point shot but doesn't puts his hands up; he just runs toward the defender with hands at his sides and then when the shot is launched, turns to the basket for rebounding position. Of course, when the shot goes in, there is no rebound to be had. I am sure he isn't alone with this bad habit, but every time I see it I scream at the set, "hands up." I have not kept count, but I seem to be yelling "hands up" at the TV way too much this season.

Baseline
12-13-2012, 01:46 PM
Based on what I have read here, it would seem like we should slow the game down on good shooting teams. Don't let them get in a rhythm, wear them down defending GU's half court game and force them to take 2 pt not 3 point shots.

An aspect of this whole conversation I don't understand, what happened to our great 3 point shooting everyone was talking in the preseason. One player like Kevin can have a slump, but Bell, Drano, Harris and even Kelly are supposedly good 3 point shooters, but every game has looked marginal as a team. I really thought it would be bombs away this year, what happened to the group?

2wiceright
12-13-2012, 08:47 PM
has stayed missing since the game ended.

What Few said, at least what I heard him say when asked on his show, is the Zags ran up against an NBA shooter who was on fire.

BUT. But, we had enough looks, and ran enough plays, and got enough wide open and open shots to our best shooters, to offset his impact, Ergo, we had the opportunity to win the game.

I don't think many on the GUB believe that. I do because I, too, watched a number of shots and potentially game changing plays & shots get away from us when we most needed them.

Had they gone in, one could guess someone on the other team's board would spend three days lamenting their poor 3 point defense.

The point, Few's point, too, being we both had enough good looks, in the final analysis, to win. They capitalized and we didn't.

I think for purposes of your post, Few IS saying the shooting percentages averaged themselves out. ANd it appears to be the case.

Very well said Gamagin. I heard Few say pretty much the same... We hit a few of the open shots Kevin and Gary took, outcome would have been different and these same threads would be focusing on something entirely different (IMHO)...