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NotoriousZ
11-01-2012, 07:50 PM
I don't know how a statistics based ranking can have a preseason poll, but here it is:

http://kenpom.com/

SMC #47, BYU #50. BYU will do much better than that.

USF #197, and yet there is still 100% chance that they're gonna dance.

ZagNative
11-01-2012, 08:59 PM
I like KenPom's guess as to our win/loss projection 2012-13:

http://i237.photobucket.com/albums/ff232/ZagNative/2012-11-01Kenpomrankings.jpg

(I subscribe to KenPom. It's a bargain - something like $20 a year.

Once and Future Zag
11-02-2012, 07:00 AM
I don't know how a statistics based ranking can have a preseason poll, but here it is:

http://kenpom.com/

SMC #47, BYU #50. BYU will do much better than that.

USF #197, and yet there is still 100% chance that they're gonna dance.

Without subscribing to see his notes, I expect it's based off of returning players EOR.

primal23
11-02-2012, 08:51 AM
I don't know how a statistics based ranking can have a preseason poll, but here it is:

http://kenpom.com/

USF #197, and yet there is still 100% chance that they're gonna dance.

Well ALL national champions start in the 100+ of KenPom.....right?

NotoriousZ
11-02-2012, 12:41 PM
Well ALL national champions start in the 100+ of KenPom.....right?

I guess that's what those dons fans were thinking.

NotoriousZ
11-02-2012, 12:48 PM
I like KenPom's guess as to our win/loss projection 2012-13...

Thanks for bringing that over, I like it as well. Our chance of an unbeaten record seems a bit low to me considering we don't have a loss in any projected game.

I wonder what Kempom's thoughts are on USF's chances (that they're gonna dance)? Sorry, I just can't help myself. It's THAT funny to me.

DixieZag
11-02-2012, 05:58 PM
Thanks for bringing that over, I like it as well. Our chance of an unbeaten record seems a bit low to me considering we don't have a loss in any projected game.

I wonder what Kempom's thoughts are on USF's chances (that they're gonna dance)? Sorry, I just can't help myself. It's THAT funny to me.

We are getting additional points for personality. Therefore the 5 loses will not count against our record. Undefeated.

Seriously, there is no way we are 30 something teams ahead of SMC and BYU - - that is silly and enough to discount this poll right there.

ZagNative
11-02-2012, 06:23 PM
KenPom is not an opinion poll. The rankings are complicated (for me, at least), but they depend on who you're scheduled to play and the statistical probability of a win.

Here's how KenPom projects St. Mary's:
http://i237.photobucket.com/albums/ff232/ZagNative/Fullscreencapture112201270706PMbmp.jpg

NotoriousZ
11-02-2012, 06:36 PM
KenPom is not an opinion poll. The rankings are complicated (for me, at least), but they depend on who you're scheduled to play and the statistical probability of a win.


I knew it wasn't a poll, my bad for selecting that word in the first place. I would ask you ZN, just for grins :p, that you bring up USF's projection page, but I think you got your $20 worth as it is.

Baldwinzag
11-02-2012, 06:47 PM
the interesting(fun?) aspect of all these rankings/ratings, none take into account the return of Kelly Olynyk by Old Spice Classic...

Heck, he may be a starter on this team by December and no season previews or polls seem to mention him by name...

X-factor.

sittingon50
11-02-2012, 06:48 PM
I like all of the wins, but think a lot of the margins of victory will be greater.

ZagNative
11-02-2012, 06:58 PM
I would ask you ZN, just for grins :p, that you bring up USF's projection page, but I think you got your $20 worth as it is.Here you go. I think they're ranked something like 197:
http://i237.photobucket.com/albums/ff232/ZagNative/Screenprints/Fullscreencapture112201275106PMbmp.jpg

007Zag
11-02-2012, 07:11 PM
Thanks for bringing that over, I like it as well. Our chance of an unbeaten record seems a bit low to me considering we don't have a loss in any projected game.

It's the percentages that matter more than the "W" or "L" projected. There are three games where we have just over a 50% chance of winning (@ OSU, @ St. Mary's, @ BYU), which means we are almost certain to lose one of those games. If we only had two games that close to a toss up, those percentages say that we will likely lose one of them 9 times out of ten. Once you start considering all the percentages, it starts to make sense why KenPom gives us such a low statistical probability of running the table.

Of course, I still think it's gonna happen. :D

NotoriousZ
11-02-2012, 07:12 PM
Thanks again! All we need now is a big ol' picture of sexy Rexy and this would be complete. And with that I bid you goodnight.

ZagNative
11-02-2012, 07:16 PM
BYU Projection from KenPom:

http://i237.photobucket.com/albums/ff232/ZagNative/Screenprints/Fullscreencapture112201281033PMbmp.jpg

NotoriousZ
11-02-2012, 07:19 PM
It's the percentages that matter more than the "W" or "L" projected. There are three games where we have just over a 50% chance of winning (@ OSU, @ St. Mary's, @ BYU), which means we are almost certain to lose one of those games. If we only had two games that close to a toss up, those percentages say that we will likely lose one of them 9 times out of ten. Once you start considering all the percentages, it starts to make sense why KenPom gives us such a low statistical probability of running the table.

Of course, I still think it's gonna happen. :D

Right there with ya. ;) And I know what you're saying, but I was thinking it could have been in the 1% - 2% range, not 0.02%. Just sayin'. Goodnight everybody.

LynetteG
11-09-2012, 11:24 AM
Um, if you are taking requests..... :) TIA :) You know my team...lol