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Bulldog
03-12-2012, 05:38 PM
Las Vegas casinos like top seed Kentucky better than all the other teams in the NCAA tournament, but think Ohio State is better than any of the other No. 1s.

Sin City is predicting five upsets in the first round: No. 9 Connecticut over No. 8 Iowa State, No. 10 West Virginia over No. 7 Gonzaga, No. 9 Alabama over No. 8 Creighton, No. 11 North Carolina State over No. 6 San Diego State and No. 10 Purdue over No. 7 St. Mary's

Bell said the vast majority of people who play in office pools or other games don't pay attention to the point spread, giving smart bettors a convenient cheat sheet.
''You've got Vegas telling you this lower seed that is actually going to have far less than 50 percent of people picking it,'' he said. ''That's exactly what bracket picking is about - if you can find teams that have a better than 50 percent chance to win that less than half the people are picking, that's how you win a bracket.''

gamagin
03-12-2012, 05:40 PM
I like underdog (including this pun) role.

whatever it takes to get and keep the chip on the shoulder, the prove it and go for it mentality fueled and burning, I'm for it.

HOOTER
03-12-2012, 05:45 PM
I suspect Vegas understands how important it is to play so close to home, and how detrimental it can be for the Zags to be forced to travel that sort of distance. WVU really has a chance to benefit from an undeserved advantage. Despite all this I still like Gonzaga's chances in this one.

kclubfounder
03-12-2012, 05:47 PM
Actually, Vegas has it as a pick.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

UberZagFan
03-12-2012, 06:18 PM
And actually further, Vegas doesn't pick any team over any other team. Vegas sets a line where they expect the public to put 50% of the money on each side. It has nothing to do with who their experts think is going to win--it has to do with what their experts think the public thinks who is going to win--and not just the general public but the public that will bet and the amount of those people that will bet.

That is exactly why you see big school underdogs as favorites on the line over high seeded, smaller, less known schools. The bigger schools in terms of alum, fan base and name recognition will naturally draw more dollars than the SMCs and Creightons of the world. What is telling is where the line goes as the week moves on and the money starts to come in.

AK457
03-12-2012, 06:19 PM
Maybe it's because there are numerically more WVU fans than GU fans? I hope so

Saxon_zag
03-12-2012, 06:24 PM
Las Vegas casinos like top seed Kentucky better than all the other teams in the NCAA tournament, but think Ohio State is better than any of the other No. 1s.

Sin City is predicting five upsets in the first round: No. 9 Connecticut over No. 8 Iowa State, No. 10 West Virginia over No. 7 Gonzaga, No. 9 Alabama over No. 8 Creighton, No. 11 North Carolina State over No. 6 San Diego State and No. 10 Purdue over No. 7 St. Mary's

Bell said the vast majority of people who play in office pools or other games don't pay attention to the point spread, giving smart bettors a convenient cheat sheet.
''You've got Vegas telling you this lower seed that is actually going to have far less than 50 percent of people picking it,'' he said. ''That's exactly what bracket picking is about - if you can find teams that have a better than 50 percent chance to win that less than half the people are picking, that's how you win a bracket.''

What do you notice about all those "upsets" they are picking? Outside Of the UConn game it's basically whoever has the more known conference affiliation getting the nod.

Oregonzagnut
03-12-2012, 06:25 PM
The bigger schools in terms of alum, fan base and name recognition will naturally draw more dollars than the SMCs and Creightons of the world. What is telling is where the line goes as the week moves on and the money starts to come in.

Bingo. And that is true for every sport, pro or amateur alike. Bookies don't care who wins, they only care what the majority bet on and how they shave off those odds to promise making money no matter what happens.

kclubfounder
03-12-2012, 06:47 PM
Bingo. And that is true for every sport, pro or amateur alike. Bookies don't care who wins, they only care what the majority bet on and how they shave off those odds to promise making money no matter what happens.

Yeah, I've had so many arguments with friends who believe Vegas sets odds to "trick" the better into betting on the wrong team. Vegas wants 50% of the dollars on one side of the bet and 50% on the other side. Period. The ideal is to set a line, never move it, and end up with 1/2 of the money on each side. Then they pocket the "juice" - 10% of all losing bets, which = 5% of total bets in their perfect world.

75Zag
03-12-2012, 06:51 PM
I have a very, very dear friend who bets from time to time, and he tells me that there are two types of "Vegas" information sources. The casino sports book places are all about doing what is necessary to adjust the line in order to try and even out the bets placed on each team. They do that because they make their money from fees (the percentage fee deducted from winners) and they don't care who wins as long as they don't have to pay off on a disproportionate number of bets. The other type of "Vegas" guys are the so-called experts who - usually for a fee - provide analysis and tips to their clients and customers as to who is likely to prevail and whether or not the prevailing team will cover the point spread. Bill Marzano is one of the more respected "experts" and for only $30 a day he will share his wisdom with you during the NCAA tournament. The sports books are putting up their preliminary odds, but it is a bit to early to hear from the experts - or so I am told by my financial planner.

Go Bulldogs! Get Bigger! No Three Guard Lineups!

Oregonzagnut
03-12-2012, 06:54 PM
Yeah, I've had so many arguments with friends who believe Vegas sets odds to "trick" the better into betting on the wrong team. Vegas wants 50% of the dollars on one side of the bet and 50% on the other side. Period. The ideal is to set a line, never move it, and end up with 1/2 of the money on each side. Then they pocket the "juice" - 10% of all losing bets, which = 5% of total bets in their perfect world.

Anyone who plays poker should understand what a "rake" is.