GU vs St. Mary's...predictions and thoughts

[Reborn]

Wow! It's come down to the last game of the conference season. And most fans probably expected it to come down to GU and St. Mary's, and it has. I think the Zags will win this one convincingly, just as they did last night against BYU. They are upset about not winning the conference championship and are now playing with a chip on their shoulders, as if they have something to prove. I like that chip. haahha.

The Zags are playing their best basketball of the season. By far. Yes, they had that hickup at USF, but that place is jinxed. That loss somehow has made the Zags tougher and better. Kind of the way North Carolina's loss to Duke a few weeks ago made them a better team too. The Zags showed cohesivness and chemistry last night that was just beautiful to see and watch. Few really has the team ready for this tournament.

St. Mary's is a real good basketball team. And they too have the heart of a champion. I give them credit for that. They will give Gonzaga all the fight that is in them, and will play tough as heck. This is a championship fight. It's Ali vs The Bear. And in the end it was Ali standing over the Bear and looking at him, a defeated champ. I love the pic in my Avatar of Ali, and the spirit he brought into that fight will be the spirit the Zags bring into their game tomorrow night.

The Zags knock St. Mary's out in the 7th round. Yes it's not a 12 round fight. It's gonna be a knockout! St Mary's hangs in the game, but on wobbly knees. And in the end, the Zags deliver the knockout punch.

Gonzaga 77
Saint Mary's 65

[adoptedzag]

Zags 103
SMC 81

[former1dog]

Without Holt, St Mary's isn't nearly as good on defense. It's going to be a lot harder for them to contain Pangos and Bell. Since our last game with them, Edi has also improved significantly so they have to account for him.

Key to the game for us is accounting for Steidl.

With our arsenal of offensive weapons and our very solid D, this is an extremely tough match up for SMC.

GU by 10+

[Martin Centre Mad Man]

I think that Gonzaga's better size and depth will wear down a St. Mary's team that just played a much harder game than our guys did. I predict that Gonzaga will lead for most of the second half and that the game will no longer be in doubt during the last 3-4 minutes.

My crystal ball tells me that Elias Harris is about to have one of the best games of his career. I foresee something along the lines of what Casey Calvary did to Pepperdine in the 2000 WCC title game.

[U Zig, I Zag]

Zags by 9, pulling away late. Lead trades hands once in the 2nd half.

I had it on, but wasn't watching intently: It looked like both sides took some tech foul shots in the SMC/USF - was that intentional fouls? chippiness?

BTW, SMC hand checks constantly. I wish Few and Co would get in the ears of the refs about it. Delly and Steindl are the worst with it.

[Zag@LMU]

Gonzaga 79
SMC 61

[DCZag]

Easy - we play like last night we win by 12+; anything else is a total nail biter...

Zags by 6

[MickMick]

The game is going to be a brutal, physical, slugfest. Chippiness galore. Both teams believe in their heart that they are the best. It will go down to the wire.

The good news is that a GU guard has not played as well as Pangos did last night for a long, long, long time. Not just the scoring. Everything. He was great in all aspects.

GU can ride him for as long as he is feeling it. How long he feels it will determine how high his star rises and how far GU goes..

Another "Morrison like" episode for me. GU was long overdue for another great one to arrive.

I envision Pangos being mentioned in the "greatest Zag ever" discussions.

[Reborn]

I am so glad we are playing Saint Mary's. There is no love lost between these two teams. Like Robert said, "They hate us, and we don't like thme." They took our streak away from us, and we are ready to fight back and prove that we are the true champs. This will truly be a championship fight, with lots of energy in Orleans arena.

I'm looking to Robert Sacre to have a great game. It's his last game against St. Mary's and Im positive he's going to want to move on in his life with great, great memories of St. Mary's. I have always loved the match-up between Harris and Jones, and for some reason Harris has had some of his best games against St. Mary's. And Sam Dower almost always plays his best games against St. Mary's.

What about Pangos and Bell? I think Kevin Pangos is really hitting his stride. His confidence is up way high. His parents are there. I'm looking for Kevin to have another outstanding game. Bell has been more of a defensive player against St. Mary's and did a good job on Delly last game. Bell has also been a steady and heady player on the offensive end of the court. The Ninja shooters will be raining 3's tomorrow night. Go Zags! I'm excited.

[fedwayzag]

Pretty sure Edi guarded Dellavodova the majority of the game last time. Hope to see it again.

[MJ777]

Da Zags by 9

[Oregonzagnut]

Zags by 12 If we control the tempo. Fast or slow.

IMO our game against BYU was the best played game as a team all year. If that is what we are capable of and better, we can beat SMC by 20 also.

I think our best games (not so coincidentally) are where our guards also have made clear decisions to stop the fast break if it isn't quite right, and set up to work our offense. Pangos, Bell and Stockton did that 4-5 times last night. Even Carter pulled back in an opportune time as well and hence had fewer TO's. We then seem to avoid strings of sloppy possessions if we know hen to slow down and take control. Stockton was renowned for that last year and it was key to us not blowing leads. So many times this year we have worked hard to get a 10 point lead only to get sloppy and lose it by the half. IMO it happens because that tempo feeds their defense too. So when we make mistakes and then try to slow back down, they are still at full defensive speed and we lose 3-4 possessions in a row. We must control the tempo of each possession. Almost deliberately like an up and down roller coaster where the other team is always having to chase us or put on their own brakes when they aren't ready for it.

If we control the tempo, up or down, we reduce our turnovers AND it doesn't allow them to create their own momentum. When we control the offensive tempo and score, we also control the defensive tempo afterwards.

Just my opinion. But BYU never had control of the tempo of the game. They always reacted to our tempo, whether it was faster or slower and we kept the flow. We kept the zone.

I posted this in another thread but I felt it was more appropriate here.

[McZag]

The game is going to be a brutal, physical, slugfest. Chippiness galore. Both teams believe in their heart that they are the best. It will go down to the wire.

The good news is that a GU guard has not played as well as Pangos did last night for a long, long, long time. Not just the scoring. Everything. He was great in all aspects.

GU can ride him for as long as he is feeling it. How long he feels it will determine how high his star rises and how far GU goes..

Another "Morrison like" episode for me. GU was long overdue for another great one to arrive.

I envision Pangos being mentioned in the "greatest Zag ever" discussions.

Great post Mick. I agree completely. It is too much to ask of a freshman to produce two 30 point nights in three days. And the truth is there is no backup plan. Our team is just not balanced enough right now. Yes Harris looks very impressive on defense and on the glass. Yes Edi is playing with a ton of confidence and yes Dower, Stock and Bell have all carried their weight.

But the truly great Zag teams peaked in March with balance. Even the 2006 steamroller relied heavily on Batista and had a solid inside/outside approach. I don't see that with this group-yet. I think if Rob stepped up like Jeremy Eaton, Axel Dench, Mike Leasure, and Richard Fox - guys with a lot less talent- this team could make a deep run this March. If he decided to play with urgency on every possession I think the others (namely Dower and Hart) would gain confidence with his example and bring their muscle to the show. Polished inside/outside chemistry is the key.

Without the emergence of an inside "plan B", Randy's boys will find a way to limit Pangos and suck the wind out of us. Once that happens it will be a tough game to win.

I prefer to dream of a balanced 9 man roster that features size, speed, basketball IQ, and above all - floor chemistry that sneaks up on an unsuspecting 2 seed and then bursts back into the second weekend headlines after a 13 year drought.

But it must begin tomorrow if it is to be.

[bartruff1]

Yup

Without Holt, St Mary's isn't nearly as good on defense. It's going to be a lot harder for them to contain Pangos and Bell. Since our last game with them, Edi has also improved significantly so they have to account for him.

Key to the game for us is accounting for Steidl.

With our arsenal of offensive weapons and our very solid D, this is an extremely tough match up for SMC.

GU by 10+

My neighbor is a Gael...we need to win or I will have to move...St Marys is 3-3 for their last 6 games...they are sore and tired... Gonzaga is playing very well...

[Reborn]

I could not disagree with your analysis of the current Zag team more. I'm not sure what you know about this game. You criticize the Zags because Pangos scored 30? hahahahahahahaha you are really, really funny. The Zags may be the most balanced team that GU has had since the '99 Zags. The Zags took what BYU game them. That's what basketball is about. The Zags do not rely on Pangos or anyone else to score 30, they will find a way to win to win because every team has it's flaws. The Zags being as good as they are will find that weakness and exploit it. To me you just seem like someone who can never be happy and rejoice at what the Zags are doing. Give the negativity a rest!!!!