Turnovers - a statistical perspective

[zagfan24]

To provide examples for the undergrad stats class I teach (and for my own interest), I made up a spreadsheet in SPSS detailing each Gonzaga game. There is a lot of neat stuff there, but I thought some of the most interesting data relates to turnovers. Statistics have their shortcomings, but the numbers really point to the importance of turnovers and turnover margin. For example:

There is a strong correlation between Gonzaga turnover numbers and opponent point total (but not GU point total) as well as GU turnover numbers and margin of victory

Even after controlling for opponent strength (via RPI), Gonzaga’s turnover and rebounding numbers both explain a significant proportion of the variance in margin of victory or defeat.

In another way of looking at things, after controlling for RPI (which explains about 40% of the variance in margin of victory/defeat, turnover differential explains an additional 44% of the variance.

In looking at Gonzaga’s wins versus losses, looking at all of the major team statistics - turnovers are the only statistically significant individual team variable. GU averages just over 12 turnovers in wins and 16.5 turnovers in losses. Turnover margin is also statistically significant (+1.29 in wins, -5.50 in losses – as is rebounding margin (+7.48 in wins, -.5 in losses).

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If anybody is as big of a nerd and would like the SPSS database, please PM me.

[Zagger]

You'd think that being good natured sportsmen and all - that when I team turned it over the other team would give it back and let them try again. But no, Zags opponents take the ball without even a thank you and see if they can score with it. Instead of the Zags making 2 their opponents make 2. That kinda leads to a 4 point swing towards the opponents and now the Zags have to score 4 to stay in the game. Maybe the Zags ought to set the precedence - next time they get a TO they hand it back to their opponents. The opposing team, being impressed and thankful and all, will start doing the same. Then there'll be no TOs and everyone will go home from the games with warm fuzzy feelings and the world will be a better place!

[MickMick]

My problem with the turnover issue is that folks inherently place the blame on the freshman.

The freshman are not the players turning it over and inexperience is not the proper excuse.

[zagfan1970]

My problem with the turnover issue is that folks inherently place the blame on the freshman.

The freshman are not the players turning it over and inexperience is not the proper excuse.

Truth is in the numbers-

Carter- 4.24 TO per 40 min
Stockton- 3.60
Keita- 3.07
Harris- 2.64
Edi- 2.63
Dower-2.53
Sacre-2.44
Bell Jr- 2.34
Pangos- 2.14
Hart- 1.41
Hoff- 1.33
Spangler- 1.27

The FRESHMEN are clearly "not to blame"

[zagfan1970]

between the lines-

What the stats above show, IMO is that "The Bigs" are going to turn it over about the same regardless of the combination ( in 80 minutes about 5 TO combined), whereas, when the "experienced" guards come off the bench and we should see some added leadership from a senior and a RS sophomore, we are actually more prone to TO's (7.84 vs. 4.48) 3-4 lost possesions equates to potential 10-16 point swings. Hard to overcome this against an inferior team at home and almost impossible to beat a good team on the road.

[rijman]

Thanks for sharing this information zagfan24. I like the statistical breakdowns. So, take care of the ball and out rebound your opponent to greatly improve the chances of winning.

[MickMick]

Truth is in the numbers-

Carter- 4.24 TO per 40 min
Stockton- 3.60
Keita- 3.07
Harris- 2.64
Edi- 2.63
Dower-2.53
Sacre-2.44
Bell Jr- 2.34
Pangos- 2.14
Hart- 1.41
Hoff- 1.33
Spangler- 1.27

The FRESHMEN are clearly "not to blame"

If I had to pick a single reason why I believe Hart and Hoff should get all of Carter's time, this list pretty much covers it.

It also goes with my belief that when the Zags lose, much of it has to do with "beating themselves."


Edit: The USF trap will really come in to play when the top two on that list substitute in.

[Ekrub]

If Harris wouldn't travel he would only average .64 turnovers per game

[TheGonzagaFactor]

Props on the research. That's good, relevant stuff! Thanks!

[gamagin]

thanks, ZF24

what do your stats show for free throws ?

It seems to me because we foul less (and draw more fouls) the result is the f.t. line is one of our more solid, reliable & predictable advantages. Seems that way at times, too. Especially in victories.

You see anything there ?

thanks !

[Zag79]

If I had to pick a single reason why I believe Hart and Hoff should get all of Carter's time, this list pretty much covers it.

It also goes with my belief that when the Zags lose, much of it has to do with "beating themselves."


Edit: The USF trap will really come in to play when the top two on that list substitute in.

Except Carter has been playing better as of late, most of his turnover came early in the season where someone like David's have been recent. Two guys can shoot 50%, but I want the guy who's hot taking the shots. I don't care about the overall numbers as much as recently. Considering Hoff and Hart rarely handle the ball, I would hope the turnover numbers would be that low. If Carter can keep the to's down, he is still an asset to the team. No one but Pangos has come close to putting up some of the numbers Marquise did last year, an example of why we need a confident bench. As good as GBJ has been, his offense disappears at times. Running Hart and Hoff who also don't score well could create a bigger issue than a few turnovers. This is why Carter is still important to this team in my opinion. Look at last game, MC had 4 rebounds and three assists with 0 to's. That's more rebounds and assists than GBJ in a third of the PT. He knows how to fill the stat sheet in other important areas that some of our guards lack. Go with who's hot that game is how this team functions the best.

[zagfan24]

what do your stats show for free throws ?

It seems to me because we foul less (and draw more fouls) the result is the f.t. line is one of our more solid, reliable & predictable advantages. Seems that way at times, too. Especially in victories.

You see anything there ?

thanks !

At first glance, surprisingly, not a whole lot. Not a significant correlation between FTM, FTA, or FT% and margin of victory. Nor is there a significant difference between any of those in wins (18.2/25.7/70.5%) vs. losses (17.75/25.25/69.5%)...though obviously free throw numbers get thrown off by the fouling at the end of a game.

I entered some opponent statistics (turnovers, rebounds, fg% and 3pt%) but didn't put anything in for free throws. I'll add that in at some point -- free throw attempt disparity would be an interesting statistic to look at.

[bballbeachbum]

At first glance, surprisingly, not a whole lot. Not a significant correlation between FTM, FTA, or FT% and margin of victory. Nor is there a significant difference between any of those in wins (18.2/25.7/70.5%) vs. losses (17.75/25.25/69.5%)...though obviously free throw numbers get thrown off by the fouling at the end of a game.

I entered some opponent statistics (turnovers, rebounds, fg% and 3pt%) but didn't put anything in for free throws. I'll add that in at some point -- free throw attempt disparity would be an interesting statistic to look at.

making more free throws than your opponent attempts, hear that a lot. Bobby Knight, Dean Smith, teams of those power coaches, their teams often accomplished this

lots made of this Thursday night during the broadcast...interesting numbers I was unaware of at the time re. GU

[Birddog]

This is why Carter is still important to this team in my opinion

Last years Carter, yes. This years version not so much IMO. Maybe he'll breakout tonight.

[zagfan1970]

Last years Carter, yes. This years version not so much IMO. Maybe he'll breakout tonight.

+1

Last year's Carter was afforded the opportunity to get into a rythym and had more opportunities. He was getting time ahead of a RS freshman and DG. The talent is simply better at his position this year, especially on the offensive end. Last year the Pros of playing MC outweighed the cons, this year we are simply better with GBJ and KP on the floor.

I do beleive MC is a very valuable piece to the puzzle and he has played better of late. I do feel better with him on the floor than I do with DS by leaps. I think he could help us win some games down the stretch again this year by giving us 12-14 solid minutes, but we won't lose a game because he didn't get a chance to win it.