PDA

View Full Version : Early Line.....BYU over Gonzaga by 3.5



bartruff1
02-01-2012, 06:27 PM
Tough to win on the road...

ZagSports
02-01-2012, 06:56 PM
Interesting...

Zag 77
02-01-2012, 08:07 PM
I was figuring that BYU would be favored by 10 at least. To think their home court advantage is only good for a lousy 3.5 points seems to perk me up.

keywester
02-01-2012, 08:47 PM
FYI...BYU opened at -3 for SMC. Bettors don't seem to have much faith in BYU at home when it comes to GU and SMC.

MDABE80
02-01-2012, 08:54 PM
Welcome keywester...good point.

ZagMan in Philly
02-02-2012, 02:01 AM
I hear the dogs barking . Go Zags!

Drew
02-02-2012, 06:52 AM
I was figuring that BYU would be favored by 10 at least. To think their home court advantage is only good for a lousy 3.5 points seems to perk me up.

That is a good question: Is Vegas saying "GU & BYU are equal and giving BYU 3.5 for home team advantage? Or is Vegas saying "GU would be favored on a neutral court and is giving BYU more that 3.5 for home team adv?

If you look at Sagarin, it seems BYU is getting 3.5 for home team advantage. If you look at RPI, it seems GU would be favored on a neutral court, and BYU is getting more than 3.5.

Sagarin: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1112.htm

RPI:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/rpi/index1

Zagpower
02-02-2012, 07:28 AM
Vegas isn't saying anything. The 3.5 spread is what Vegas predicts will attract equal money to both sides of the bet. From then on, it's up to the public to move the line with their bets. That's not the same as predicting the game. BYU with their huge following is often overbet.

The 3 point home game margin is for Pro Football. It does not apply to most college basketball. Think about it. Why would you automatically attribute (3-3.5 pts) to every home team? Some venues are simply much more difficult to play in and the home point differential may be as high as 10 points for some teams. SMC and the Zags deserve a much higher Home Court Advantage than say San Diego or any other less intimidating places to play.

I say on a neutral court, Zags are favored by 4-5 making the HCA for BYU worth 7.5-8 points.

LongIslandZagFan
02-02-2012, 07:33 AM
What is the o/u?

77Zag
02-02-2012, 07:35 AM
I like being the underdogs.



We have no hope, we are doomed...let the game begin

Go Zags!

Drew
02-02-2012, 07:44 AM
The 3 point home game margin is for Pro Football. It does not apply to most college basketball. Think about it. Why would you automatically attribute (3-3.5 pts) to every home team? Some venues are simply much more difficult to play in and the home point differential may be as high as 10 points for some teams. SMC and the Zags deserve a much higher Home Court Advantage than say San Diego or any other less intimidating places to play.

I say on a neutral court, Zags are favored by 4-5 making the HCA for BYU worth 7.5-8 points.

I agree with several of your points. My point about Sagarin is that he gives 3.52 points for "Home Advantage." In the past, I have seen 4 points as the average HCA for college basketball, but it is clear that such does not apply everywhere. The range is probably fairly large, something like 1 to 8+ pts.

Edit: BYU's HCA is clearly above the average of 3.5-4 pts.

Zag4Hire
02-02-2012, 07:47 AM
What is the o/u?

147. Wow! That is a season high. Well, I have dipped back into the pool standing at 5-2 on the season but now seems as a good time as any. Both teams will try to open it up but both are not the high octane offenses we thought (Both BYU & GU are under in last 4 out of last 5 games and numbers don't look good for games over 140). I think this game is won at the free throw line and both seem to rely on the frontcourt presence. Unless you are getting the hook, I would stay away from the spread. I wouldn't be surprised if either team won but I would be surprised if both teams surpass 73 points each.

Ebay
02-02-2012, 07:50 AM
I'm going to Vegas tomorrow. Wish I were there today to bet on the Zags.

Zagpower
02-02-2012, 07:53 AM
One of the strangest lines I've seen this year was just a couple days ago, when #1 Kentucky was only favored by 10 at LSU. It appeared the bettors were giving LSU about a 15 point HCA. LSU had home losses to South Alabama by 4 and Virginia by 5.

VinnyZag
02-02-2012, 07:58 AM
Ken Pomeroy (subscription) (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Gonzaga) predicts a final score of BYU 75, Gonzaga 72 and gives Zags a 39 percent chance of winning.

bartruff1
02-02-2012, 08:03 AM
I think that Vegas does say something...it seems to me that they would have to have a probable outcome in order to atract bets on both sides. Yes I know how they make their money, but if they are way off, they would get killed before they could adjust the line..

Zagpower
02-02-2012, 08:30 AM
I think that Vegas does say something...it seems to me that they would have to have a probable outcome in order to atract bets on both sides. Yes I know how they make their money, but if they are way off, they would get killed before they could adjust the line..

It's a fine distinction that doesn't always apply and may not in this game but in the case of say Michigan v Pepperdine. The experts may think that Michigan is 10 points better but they know that that a certain number of bettors (like alumni) just bet their team...that skews the line in certain games.

All of my Catholic friends bet Notre Dame when they are in Vegas no matter what the sport. They are betting with their hearts. Still alot of people that do that.

Great show on Velocity TV called the Linemakers featuring 5-6 of the guys that actually set the opening line. They all give their predictions on the games indicating thay believe the line to be wrong. If they set the line, they would have no pick in the game as the line would be their pick.

bartruff1
02-02-2012, 08:40 AM
Z.Power ....Reits getting much love this morning, Bernanke et al. Dividends expected to go up as revenues are growing at 5-10 %... possible price increase... people who bet with their heart are at great risk of losing their money...not prudent

LongIslandZagFan
02-02-2012, 08:43 AM
I'd take the zag plus points and over. Normally I'd bail on that high of an over, but got a feeling this will be a barnstormer.

bartruff1
02-02-2012, 08:52 AM
I'd take the zag plus points and over. Normally I'd bail on that high of an over, but got a feeling this will be a barnstormer. BYU is not Butler, the only time I saw them play any defense this year was in the 2nd half against the Gaels...I imagine they will at least start with their zone...

Zagpower
02-02-2012, 08:57 AM
From Linesmaker.com


Las Vegas betting odds are an intricate science. For starters, oddsmakers do not rely simply on statistical and numerical formulas to come up with point spreads. In addition to scrutinizing external elements like weather and locker room brawls between players, Las Vegas betting odds are concluded based on how many people are betting, not necessarily on who they think will win the game. This presents an opportunity for smarter gamblers to lay down high percentage bets and fatten their bankrolls.

Just like the stock market, the smart money will take advantage of the inefficiencies of the sports betting market.:cheers:

Zag
02-02-2012, 09:40 AM
This thread makes me want to bet. I'll take the Zags with the 3.5 free points.

Das Zagger
02-02-2012, 10:27 AM
Points get laid, money gets made.

Don't think this team can go into an environment like BYU and win.

DixieZag
02-02-2012, 10:44 AM
Tend to agree with Zagger, I have my doubts that this team is ready to go in and win this game.

Only thing that brings me a little optimism is that they have played one game in 10 days, we could see an entirely different team, different looks - we rarely have a lay-off like that, maybe it will be like the St. John's game. Lots of prep time, must win game.

primal23
02-02-2012, 12:01 PM
Only thing that brings me a little optimism is that they have played one game in 10 days, we could see an entirely different team, different looks - we rarely have a lay-off like that, maybe it will be like the St. John's game. Lots of prep time, must win game.

But with Pangos and Edi sick, and Dower and Bell with sore hips, not a good sign. And we also have rough starts after a long lay-off, and can't get down big. And I agree with both Zagger and your first part, that this team just doesn't have it YET to win this one.

Dirt McGirt
02-02-2012, 12:11 PM
If you guys want to make some money, bet on San Diego tonight. SMC is something like 22 point favorites. They are chippy enough that they will irritate us for a while. I don't see a 22 point victory.

ZagLawGrad
02-02-2012, 12:15 PM
We're going to have to see a lot better play than the Zags have shown recently to win this game. I don't think this team is near as good as some contend.

But, funny things happen in this sport. Go Zags!

ZagMan in Philly
02-02-2012, 12:52 PM
If you guys want to make some money, bet on San Diego tonight. SMC is something like 22 point favorites. They are chippy enough that they will irritate us for a while. I don't see a 22 point victory.

i am with you on this line Dirt...i will take the 22.

bballbeachbum
02-02-2012, 02:45 PM
We're going to have to see a lot better play than the Zags have shown recently to win this game. I don't think this team is near as good as some contend.

But, funny things happen in this sport. Go Zags!

agree. GU needs to elevate their game, what it's all about. what a great opportunity to do it tonight

interesting discussion on the the line and the professionals and what it means, etc. I only know I can't bet on GU games, screwy energy from that for me

line seems about right, a tight one. we'll see.