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Baseline
01-26-2012, 09:57 PM
I have a question for all of you shooters out there. What makes teams go hot and cold from the 3 in particular. I threw bricks and was never hot or cold, just bricks. I watch players and teams get hot and cold and don't understand it. What can they do besides just shoot a lot to stay consistent.

raise the zag
01-26-2012, 10:05 PM
forced shots.

this was the first game in a long time I felt Pangos forced all his 3pt attempts...only one of his 6 attempts was actually "open". He had a nice game inside the 3pt line, which I feel he should be focusing on anyway...teams are scouting and subsequently hounding him along the perimeter...he really needs to hone a mid-range and floater...his couple kisses off the glass tonight were a thing of beauty. I LOVED seeing that move outta him. Great sign going fwd.

maynard g krebs
01-26-2012, 10:27 PM
I think it can be a multitude of factors, both internal and external. Biorhythms, endorphins, whatever it is, sometimes you just feel like everything you shoot is going in; other days you just feel "off" and don't quite have the distance control. When you're "on" and hit a couple, you feel like you're playing with house money and nobody will mind if you miss a couple, and your confidence grows and it gets like you're guiding the ball into the basket with a remote control device or something. That's what "the zone" feels like to me anyway.

It's also contagious between teammates; when they hit a couple, it raises confidence and belief, which I think is the biggest key.

Offensive flow and playing with good passers is a huge factor, too. When you come off a downscreen and pop out to the wing and the pass arrives chest high exactly when you are ready to pivot and shoot, you shoot in rhythm and comfortably. If the pass is a split second late or high, low or wide, and the defender gets the extra step to close out, it throws off the timing and lowers the % of a make. "On time and on target", as Jimmy Dykes says.

For me, playing with unselfish players who move the ball around like a hot potato makes it easier to shoot, too. I think that makes everybody more likely to take good, high % shots, because 1)you know if you give it up and then are open, it will come back, so you are less likely to unconsciously force up a marginal shot because "everybody else is doing it" and 2) it creates a sort of comeraderie between the team that helps create the mental state where you are most likely to get in the zone, relaxed and confident.

That's how it seems to work for me, at least.

awberke
01-26-2012, 10:31 PM
forced shots.

this was the first game in a long time I felt Pangos forced all his 3pt attempts...only one of his 6 attempts was actually "open". He had a nice game inside the 3pt line, which I feel he should be focusing on anyway...teams are scouting and subsequently hounding him along the perimeter...he really needs to hone a mid-range and floater...his couple kisses off the glass tonight were a thing of beauty. I LOVED seeing that move outta him. Great sign going fwd.

I disagree, i thought there was maybe 2 questionable looks by pangos. Almost all of his shots rimmed out, he just wasn't feeling it. I would like to see him stop shooting if he misses 4 in a row though.

raise the zag
01-26-2012, 10:34 PM
I disagree, i thought there was maybe 2 questionable looks by pangos. Almost all of his shots rimmed out, he just wasn't feeling it. I would like to see him stop shooting if he misses 4 in a row though.

I'm sorry, I don't understand your contradicting post.

You disagree he shouldn't be expanding his game i.e. mid-range and floaters to compliment his perimeter game and / or he didn't force any shots and should stop shooting after 4 misses, although he missed 6 straight tonight? I confuse. :confused:

Baseline
01-26-2012, 10:49 PM
The reason I asked the question was in trying to understand how we can go from a great 3 point shooting team at the start of the season to a team that shoots 10% from the 3. That's a huge change and I believe it may be a trend. It would be interesting to plot out the statistics on percentages over the season and see if we have a slope downward or hopefully its more random.

I agree with it being great to see Pangos developing his inside game. He is progressing as the floor leader and expanding his game, but the shooting of late is troublesome.

maynard g krebs
01-26-2012, 11:30 PM
The reason I asked the question was in trying to understand how we can go from a great 3 point shooting team at the start of the season to a team that shoots 10% from the 3. That's a huge change and I believe it may be a trend.

Miniscule sample size, and simple random statistical variation. Pangos took most of the shots and was cold. Looked like UP was very physical early, and nothing was being called, which can lead to shooters expecting contact and being thrown off/losing concentration(pure speculation, admittedly). At least 3 were close misses.

Next game could just as easily be 8-15 imo. In the previous 10 games GU made 68-168, 40.5%. No reason to believe this was anything but an off game by Pangos; nobody else took enough attempts to matter. Last time they played UP, the team was 9-18.

2wiceright
01-26-2012, 11:32 PM
The reason I asked the question was in trying to understand how we can go from a great 3 point shooting team at the start of the season to a team that shoots 10% from the 3. That's a huge change and I believe it may be a trend. It would be interesting to plot out the statistics on percentages over the season and see if we have a slope downward or hopefully its more random.

I agree with it being great to see Pangos developing his inside game. He is progressing as the floor leader and expanding his game, but the shooting of late is troublesome.

Even great shooters have off games or go into slumps (just as hitters in baseball). In the end- both the hot, cold, and average shooting nights average out (hopefully to about .420 Percent or more by end of season, or .400 from three). If Few thinks he gets to a point that he should shoot less or isn't taking "his" shot- I'm sure we'll be the last to know about it!

awberke
01-26-2012, 11:35 PM
I'm sorry, I don't understand your contradicting post.

You disagree he shouldn't be expanding his game i.e. mid-range and floaters to compliment his perimeter game and / or he didn't force any shots and should stop shooting after 4 misses, although he missed 6 straight tonight? I confuse. :confused:

I only disagreed with your assessment of his shot selection. I thought his shot selection was fine, but if he misses 4 in a row I think it might be time to call it a night on pull ups. Obviously there are some kickout shots you have to take, but the ones he normally makes weren't falling.

I agree with the midrange comment.

A to Zags
01-27-2012, 05:25 AM
Miniscule sample size, and simple random statistical variation. Pangos took most of the shots and was cold. Looked like UP was very physical early, and nothing was being called, which can lead to shooters expecting contact and being thrown off/losing concentration(pure speculation, admittedly). At least 3 were close misses.

Next game could just as easily be 8-15 imo. In the previous 10 games GU made 68-168, 40.5%. No reason to believe this was anything but an off game by Pangos; nobody else took enough attempts to matter. Last time they played UP, the team was 9-18.

has changed the game of basketball. We have players quite capable of lighting it up and an off game or two is no cause for alarm. I would like to see more of Hoff and offensive sets designed for open 3's. We are an inside oriented team understandably but the turnovers in that area bothered me a lot more than a poor shooting outside performance. These TO's and poor bunny shooting are much more troublesome to me.

john montana
01-27-2012, 06:32 AM
Confidence. If you knock one or two down the basket gets a lot bigger.

Zagdawg
01-27-2012, 06:38 AM
I'm more impressed with us shooting 9% from 3 and still won by 12. Our guys find a way to get it done-- if it is not falling from outside -- taking to the hole and pounding it in to our bigs.

Maximizing what you are given and what is falling.

titopoet
01-27-2012, 08:42 AM
I am reading a fascinating book, Thinking Fast and Slow (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/15bb6522-04ac-11e1-91d9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1kgKRJPCj). And in it Daniel Kahneman cites a famous study that show that there is no correlation between a how streaks, cold streaks and real percentage. Hot streaks and cold streaks are just a phenomena of taking shots.

Pangos was balanced and shot it the way he normally does and 40 of them will connect in a random sample of a 100 shots. If he works on his shot he can get it to 45 - 48 times in a hundred. There will be times that within that hundred that 5 or 6 misses or makes be bunched up to make the illusion of streak. Last night he shot the way he normally did and they didn't drop. Just a random bad night. Good news, though, from the book, a regress to the mean, means the next game that if he continues to shot, they will drop better in the next game. Better the laws of stats to have a bad game against Portland than BYU.

DixieZag
01-27-2012, 09:38 AM
I agree that hot streaks tend to balance out with cold streaks.

But, I also read a New Yorker article on how the brain's perception of time can change. One example was how when we were kids, it took FOREVER to get to summer, as adults, the years fly by. Scientific studies show that the brain may change its perception of time.

Another example was when someone has a close call with a major accident, people describe the seconds of a car crash as seemingly taking minutes.

Lastly, the scientists studied athletes who are "in the zone" - where a combination of confidence, ability and circumstances can literally make the act of shooting slow down and make the athlete feel more in control and know that the shot will go in. Every athlete, hitters, BB players, QB's, skiers - can recall times when they were "in the zone" - hard to describe, but they know it when they are in it. Going cold is the opposite feeling, like you can't control anything and even your best efforts will fail.

These scientists believe that the brain's perception of time can change, for adults it changes in times of great pressure/stress, possibly an evolutional adaptation to allow just a tiny bit more chance of avoiding the bear trying to eat you.

titopoet
01-27-2012, 10:06 AM
I agree that hot streaks tend to balance out with cold streaks.

But, I also read a New Yorker article on how the brain's perception of time can change. One example was how when we were kids, it took FOREVER to get to summer, as adults, the years fly by. Scientific studies show that the brain may change its perception of time.

Another example was when someone has a close call with a major accident, people describe the seconds of a car crash as seemingly taking minutes.

Lastly, the scientists studied athletes who are "in the zone" - where a combination of confidence, ability and circumstances can literally make the act of shooting slow down and make the athlete feel more in control and know that the shot will go in. Every athlete, hitters, BB players, QB's, skiers - can recall times when they were "in the zone" - hard to describe, but they know it when they are in it. Going cold is the opposite feeling, like you can't control anything and even your best efforts will fail.

These scientists believe that the brain's perception of time can change, for adults it changes in times of great pressure/stress, possibly an evolutional adaptation to allow just a tiny bit more chance of avoiding the bear trying to eat you.

I read that article too. Great stuff. I have been reading these studies and research and I think that when, like GU at SMC, there is struggle; it less do to not enough effort and ironically too much effort. The thesis of Thinking fast and slow is there are too systems on thinking, and he makes the claim that being in the zone is a smooth interplay between the two, but when things are going bad, we try to think (the slower system) our way out of the problem, but the because this thinking is too slow, we push to hard and we reach a negative cycle. We get in too trouble, try hard to think get out of it, which makes it worse. But to play with instinct, you have to have a lot of practice when you encode your instinct thinking with you playing. That is why experience is so important. Cool stuff and makes you wonder if Few keeps up with the research and uses in his coaching.

ZagSports
01-27-2012, 10:39 AM
For shooters who create their own shots it all starts from the bottom up. Feet set, legs, hips and shoulders square with the basket. From there the rest depends on the release of the hand. You should be able to place a pencil between the ball and your palm without having to force it in. All your strength comes from your elbow, while you generate the spin with the snap of the wrist.

For catch and shoot shooters, the pass is the biggest factor. If the pass isn't crisp with some zip on it, it requires the shooter to have to not only adjust the ball, but adjust his body as well.

If your ball is short you need more legs, if your ball is long you need more arc, if your ball is right or left, your elbow to your finger tips are not in a straight line with the hoop. This is where the concept "cookie jar" comes into play. Reach in and grab the cookie

Zag79
01-27-2012, 12:45 PM
I only disagreed with your assessment of his shot selection. I thought his shot selection was fine, but if he misses 4 in a row I think it might be time to call it a night on pull ups. Obviously there are some kickout shots you have to take, but the ones he normally makes weren't falling.

I agree with the midrange comment.

Keep shooting, especially if your a player like Pangos. Wasn't it against X that he was awful from behind the arc, but hit the biggest three of the game late? I wouldn't ever want a good player to sot shooting based on amount of misses only. I do agree with "it", some nights you just don't have it.

awberke
01-27-2012, 12:48 PM
Keep shooting, especially if your a player like Pangos. Wasn't it against X that he was awful from behind the arc, but hit the biggest three of the game late? I wouldn't ever want a good player to sot shooting based on amount of misses only. I do agree with "it", some nights you just don't have it.

If you are open. But you don't have to dribble into a pullup if you keep missing. BYU went 2 for 24 against LMU, they should have stopped shooting.

Zag79
01-27-2012, 01:00 PM
Of course, I'm talking open shots. Those are usually the only good looks in reality. :D

Baseline
01-27-2012, 01:14 PM
Here is an interesting article on Shooting. A mathematical look at shooting.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-01/plos-obs012312.php

maynard g krebs
01-27-2012, 02:23 PM
Hot streaks and cold streaks are just a phenomena of taking shots.

Pangos was balanced and shot it the way he normally does and 40 of them will connect in a random sample of a 100 shots. If he works on his shot he can get it to 45 - 48 times in a hundred. There will be times that within that hundred that 5 or 6 misses or makes be bunched up to make the illusion of streak. Last night he shot the way he normally did and they didn't drop. Just a random bad night.

It's certainly true that you need a sufficient sample size to establish a verifiable percentage rate; i.e. if you flip a coin a thousand times you should get around 500 heads/tails but there will be several stretches of several in a row of one side or the other.

But with things like shooting a basketball, there are other factors than random chance. Human beings have up and down cycles, physically and mentally. Sometimes your team is just out of sync. Sometimes the defense does something that interrupts your, or your team's rhythm. When we play a sport, we activate all the primitive emotions developed over tens of thousands of years of hunting, warfare, survival struggles,etc, as well as all our instincts of cooperation and teamwork that evolved in tribal society as necessary parts of our survival mechanisms. And the highs and lows that occur during competition have physiological counterparts, i.e. the production of stuff like endorphins and cortisol (stress hormone). These substances result in varying neuromuscular reactions which can be the difference between a shot going in or rattling out. And when they rattle out, doubt creeps in and the "slow thinking" factor takes over.

Carter this year is a prime example of the mental aspect of shooting going sour. He's in a negative feedback loop in regard to shooting the ball, and is unable to do something to do something he's done successfully in the past.

bballbeachbum
01-27-2012, 03:17 PM
One example was how when we were kids, it took FOREVER to get to summer, as adults, the years fly by. Scientific studies show that the brain may change its perception of time.

when you were 5, each year was 1/5 of your life, summer being the emotional marker in your example. if lucky enough to reach 50, it's 1/50 of your life...it is flying by faster!

bballbeachbum
01-27-2012, 03:17 PM
On KP's shot selection, he shows a nice ability in that department from the sample size he's given at GU so far imo

on being in the zone, or not...lots of folks working that equation out in their daily basketball pursuits at whatever level they participate in. That some do it better than others, or can Microwave (ty Vinny...Ammo was like that to me) consistently more than others tells me it's more than just numbers, but who knows?

MickMick
01-27-2012, 03:58 PM
If Kevin has a wide open shot, I want him to take it.

Every time.

If he is not hitting from outside, I want him to shoot anyway.

I do appreciate his trips to the free throw line. It is like "small ball" in baseball. If his shot is not falling, he still can find ways to generate points by penetrating and drawing contact. He isn't bad from the charity stripe either.

He absolutely has to be engaged in the offense in every aspect. He has to play through dry spells. It is all part of his maturation. I like my chances in any WCC game with Pangos at the helm. I am still very optimistic about the current team "as is".

Baseline
01-27-2012, 07:38 PM
when you were 5, each year was 1/5 of your life, summer being the emotional marker in your example. if lucky enough to reach 50, it's 1/50 of your life...it is flying by faster!

I read somewhere that some people try and slow down the passage of time by inflicting pain on themselves (there are 50 cent words for this, but I'm more of a 25 cent thinker). I think there is some truth to this thinking. When games are going Ugly, they seem to last longer.

bballbeachbum
01-28-2012, 08:29 AM
I read somewhere that some people try and slow down the passage of time by inflicting pain on themselves (there are 50 cent words for this, but I'm more of a 25 cent thinker). I think there is some truth to this thinking. When games are going Ugly, they seem to last longer.

Interestingly, I read somewhere that some people try and slow down the passage of time by inflicting pain on others (penny words). But I do not think there is some truth to this thinking. When games are going ugly, they always bail first ;)

GeorgiaZagFan
01-28-2012, 10:31 AM
I think you will find that road gyms, with different backdrops and lighting, will effect 3-point shooters more than other aspects of the game. This is even more the case with younger players, as they mature and get more accustomed to playing on the road, they usually improve. Kevin Pangos is a perfect example.... On 3-pointers at the kennel he's 36-79, 46%. Away from the kennel he's 9-39 for 23%. His worse 3-point shooting performances at home were a 1-5 night and a pair of 2-7's but NO "0"-fers. On the road he has the recent 0-6, an 0-5, a 1-7 and a 1-5. He needs to keep shooting and the road woes will be gone before you know it.