View Full Version : Early Track: Air Force @ Gonzaga

12-21-2011, 03:23 PM
Sitting at 4-1 this season and I am trying to not ruin my Xmas with only a few days to go. Quick look at the sheet has O/U 129.5 and GU as the chalk for 14 1/2 points. GU has done fairly well this season as double digit favorites (except the one loss I got with WSU :mad:) but this isn't the angle I am looking at. Got the under last night but it was really Butler that kept the slip bankable. I think we gotta look at the over for this one.

Air Force has a pretty stout defense, on paper (21st in Scor Def). They haven't played a top 50 opponent and have only played one road game (and lost). I talked to my friend who is a MWC basketball junkie and he said AF recently switched to a primarily man-to-man defense and deserting the zone. However, I don't think this is going to work against GU and I think you are going to see some defensive tinkering on Thursday. You could also say they are not to hot in the offensive department (182nd in Scor Off). However they have a player that intrigues me: Mike Fitzgerald. He can handle the rock and hit 3 balls. The PG Lyons looks a bit sloppy with the handles and can force the pass sometimes. I think AF gets close to their season average of 67 and I think GU get close to their season average of 74 as well. Going with GU and the points may not be too bad (Sagarin Differential puts GU at +15.38) but the game is a few days before Xmas, the team came off two great performances and may be exhausted, and who knows without the KC rocking and rolling. However, I do like GU's offense and teams are capable of putting up points against them (Wazzu, Hawaii, and Western Michigan come to mind). I am sticking with the over at 129.5.

Gonzaga 79
Air Force 65

12-21-2011, 04:44 PM
I think we will win by 20+. If St Marys can average 21 points scoring margin, we should be able to win by that at least once.

12-21-2011, 05:07 PM
I think we will win by 20+. If St Marys can average 21 points scoring margin, we should be able to win by that at least once.

SMC is extremely potent offensively when they are firing on all cylinders, they can fill it up. I truly believe this may be the best SMC team ever, I think they will give Baylor everything they can handle - especially since it is like a one game play-off into the tournament in Vegas and not at Baylor. SMC may have been able to afford a loss to Baylor had they not lost to Denver, but there just is nothing "there" in OOC in terms of wins for SMC w/o Baylor.

Which is also why I am particularly glad that this GU team seems to be the best defensive team in a while and is coming together really nicely, I don't know how the season will play out but it seems right now like there are 3 tournament worthy teams in the WCC.

12-21-2011, 05:21 PM
Air Force wins with DEFENSE. Like Bennett used to when he was at WSU. It'll be a test. Grinding it out is how we win. We do have better offensive weapons...it'll take lots of planning by the Coaches...

12-21-2011, 05:24 PM
This will be the guys 4th game in 7 days -- we'll need our bench to step up and play big. At some point, some of our go-to players are gonna get tired, especially since Air Force plays a grind-out, pressure, tough style of defense.