PDA

View Full Version : At Large Bid



bostonzagfan
12-05-2011, 07:03 AM
If GU does not win the conference tournament, who do they need to beat in order to earn an at large bid? Hopefully Gonzaga is not in the same position as last year. It would be nice if they could go into the conference tournament not needing to come out victorious in order to secure a bid.

Looking at the schedule, Notre Dame seems down, and so does Butler. The chances for quality wins the rest of the way seem to be Mich State, Arizona, and Xavier.

How many of those three does GU need to win to make the tournament as an at large bid? How many of the three does GU need to win to be assured of a big dance spot before the conference tournament begins?

If they don't win any, then at large bid is unlikely. I think they need to win two out of the three to feel good about getting an at large bid.

Baldwinzag
12-05-2011, 07:17 AM
Looking at the schedule, Notre Dame seems down, and so does Butler. The chances for quality wins the rest of the way seem to be Mich State, Arizona, and Xavier.

How many of those three does GU need to win to make the tournament as an at large bid?

Win two out of the three above, less than 4 Conference losses, & a WCC Championship game appearance should be enough to get in, imo. Assuming we win our WCC games at home(BYU, St Mary's, USF, LMU, Santa Clara, et al).

Along the same lines of the '06-'07 season. We lost 7 games that year. Won the games we should have won; however, we lost to all ranked opponents, no real signature wins, lost two games in conference, yet still managed a 7-seed at large bid. And that was when the WCC was #11 RPI conference, now its around #6/#7, which makes a big difference.

bartruff1
12-05-2011, 08:00 AM
and has made a very reasonable guess about what is likely to happen except I think we may lose to X and Zona. Unless, Guy is a game changer...

75Zag
12-05-2011, 08:49 AM
As long as there are only two top level teams in the WCC - presumably BYU and GU - and as long as GU does not drop any stink bombs (losing to ORU at home, for example) I think GU goes to the tournament no matter what happens in the OOC from here on out. I can forsee losses to Michigan State and X and I give us a 50/50 chance against Zona in the BIS but I don't think losing any of those will keep us out of the tournament. They might cause us to get seeded at the 9,10 or 11 at some remote arena instead of being seeded a 4, 5 or 6 in Portland, which would suck on several levels (including personally as I have Portland tickets) but we would still make the tournament.

Let's hope things go better than I expect and we are playing in Portland in March. Let's also hope that the Fuskies are not playing in Portland so it will be easier for the casual GU fan to get tickets to the Rose Garden. Last time it was awful to see the prices that U of W fans were willing to pay the scalpers.

Go Bulldogs! Get Bigger!

TexasZagFan
12-05-2011, 09:01 AM
Two days after our first loss of the season, and threads are starting on our prospects for an at-large bid. :explode:

TheGonzagaFactor
12-05-2011, 09:13 AM
Along the same lines of the '06-'07 season. We lost 7 games that year. Won the games we should have won; however, we lost to all ranked opponents, no real signature wins, lost two games in conference, yet still managed a 7-seed at large bid.

We had plenty of signature wins in 06-07. We beat #2 UNC in Madison Square Garden (probably our biggest win ever) beat a ranked Texas team that had Kevin Durant, and won at a ranked Stanford team with the Lopez twins. Not to mention crushing a top-10 UW team.

Also, we got a 10 seed that season, not a 7.

Also, we lost three conference games, not 2.

ALSO, we got the auto bid that year, not an at large.

Were you talking about a different season?

FlyZag
12-05-2011, 09:31 AM
... As gu does not drop any stink bombs (losing to oru at home, for example) i think gu goes to the tournament no matter what happens in the ooc from here on out. I can forsee losses to michigan state and x and i give us a 50/50 chance against zona in the bis but i don't think losing any of those will keep us out of the tournament. They might cause us to get seeded at the 9,10 or 11 at some remote arena instead of being seeded a 4, 5 or 6 in portland, which would suck on several levels (including personally as i have portland tickets) but we would still make the tournament.


this!!!!

CDC84
12-05-2011, 09:32 AM
Folks, every single season it all works out. There is no need to discuss, and no need to panic. It never fails. Gonzaga gets in the NCAA tournament. And in recent times, they usually get a seed that's much better than people are expecting. It all works out.

You have to do a lot of stupid things to fail to get into the NCAA tournament.

I'll keep saying this until I am blue in the face: you can't properly evaluate anything related to Gonzaga's non-conference schedule, their RPI, etc., until the month of February. A full month of conference play needs to kick in before you can get a grip on anything related to their at large chances. BCS teams, especially, can overcome a multitude of sins depending on how they perform during league play. The same goes for non-BCS teams and how they perform in their conference tournaments. For instance, Butler might not be building an at large resume right now, but no one would be shocked if they went on to win the Horizon League tournament. So a win over them in a couple of weeks might be significant down the road.

It's too early to begin this discussion.

(BTW - Oral Roberts is an excellent basketball team that could very well win 25 games this season. I expect to see them in the dance. Gonzaga better come ready to play).

siliconzag
12-05-2011, 09:48 AM
Two days after our first loss of the season, and threads are starting on our prospects for an at-large bid. :explode:

Amen, brother.

Baldwinzag
12-05-2011, 10:07 AM
We had plenty of signature wins in 06-07. We beat #2 UNC in Madison Square Garden (probably our biggest win ever) beat a ranked Texas team that had Kevin Durant, and won at a ranked Stanford team with the Lopez twins. Not to mention crushing a top-10 UW team.

Also, we got a 10 seed that season, not a 7.

Also, we lost three conference games, not 2.

ALSO, we got the auto bid that year, not an at large.

Were you talking about a different season?

Thank you for the correction. You are right regarding '06-'07. Apologies. My initial comparison was referring to the following season: 2007-2008 :o.

Martin Centre Mad Man
12-05-2011, 10:12 AM
Two days after our first loss of the season, and threads are starting on our prospects for an at-large bid. :explode:

Doesn't the ESPN.com Bubble Watch start on December 15th? We're only a week ahead of schedule.

bostonzagfan
12-05-2011, 11:10 AM
Two days after our first loss of the season, and threads are starting on our prospects for an at-large bid. :explode:

the games for which an at-large bid has a good chance of depending on are coming up. seems relevant to me.

zagzilla
12-05-2011, 11:30 AM
It does seem to all work out and until Feb you cant tell much, but the recipe for a dance invitation (without an Autobid) is:

Win WCC regular season title (WCC Conf RPI should be better this yr)
No bad losses
Top 50 RPI

You can predict this on 12/5 and be pretty confident it will bear up in March. Much harder to speculate about how valuable a particular game will be to our profile yet.

ORU might be a very good win, Butler too. ND might founder and be less so 100+ RPI. Illinois is likely a Top 100 (hopefully Top 50) road loss so no harm done other than the missed opportunity to notch a B10 win.

FWIW-I think this same recipe applies to SMC and BYU too.

ZZ

bartruff1
12-05-2011, 11:58 AM
I am not aware anything we speculate about at any time has any effect on anything..

RenoZag
12-05-2011, 01:10 PM
I am not aware anything we speculate about at any time has any effect on anything..


. . .you'll be telling us there's no Santa Claus. . .

;)