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VinnyZag
11-03-2011, 11:58 AM
Good news: According to Ken Pomeroy, there is a 0.0 percent chance that Gonzaga will go winless this year.
He posted his 2012 ratings (http://www.kenpom.com/) this morning. GU is No. 17. Here's a link to our profile page (http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Gonzaga).

ZagNative
11-03-2011, 12:13 PM
Thanks, VinnyZag!

Zag@LMU
11-03-2011, 12:15 PM
Smc @ 23
byu @ 38

gozagswoohoo
11-03-2011, 12:31 PM
Very fun to look at!

Thanks Vinny

Baldwinzag
11-03-2011, 12:39 PM
Don't forget, our PomPom ratings have improved over the years as well...the Zag cheerleaders are lookin' purdy these days. ;)

sittingon50
11-03-2011, 12:44 PM
I thought I read somewhere within the last week that his site was going to be a "pay for" site this year (?).

P.S.

Has the Zags winning the 1st 12 out of the chute. I could live with that.

P.P.S.

Thanks for the heads up, Vinny.

gozagswoohoo
11-03-2011, 01:10 PM
Has the Zags winning the 1st 12 out of the chute. I could live with that.

You can say that again.

MDABE80
11-03-2011, 02:19 PM
Somebody know how it is that Ken predicts a 22-7 record but game by game he only shows 3 losses? Acccccccccck!

webspinnre
11-03-2011, 02:23 PM
Somebody know how it is that Ken predicts a 22-7 record but game by game he only shows 3 losses? Acccccccccck!

Its simple probabilities. Predicting an individual win you just have to finish better than 50%. Predicting total numbers over the course of the season, you have to consider all those percentages in the 70s and figure that while the odds are we'll win that specific game, that over the course of several games, we're likely to lose one or two.

VinnyZag
11-03-2011, 02:25 PM
I thought I read somewhere within the last week that his site was going to be a "pay for" site this year (?).

P.S.

Has the Zags winning the 1st 12 out of the chute. I could live with that.

P.P.S.

Thanks for the heads up, Vinny.

Some parts of it are going behind a paywall, including the team profile pages. The blog and the ratings will remain free, if I understand it correctly.

gozagswoohoo
11-03-2011, 02:25 PM
Somebody know how it is that Ken predicts a 22-7 record but game by game he only shows 3 losses? Acccccccccck!

Well...for simplicity, look at it this way...

Let's say I have a bucket full of apples, and a bucket full of 3 grapes. If I dump the bucket of apples over, and there are horses nearby, the horses will probably come over and eat the apples. If I dump the bucket of grapes over, the horses probably will not see the grapes, and therefore, not eat them.


Okay....that didn't explain things NEARLY as good as it did in my own head.

Nevermind.

rennis
11-03-2011, 02:41 PM
.

Has the Zags winning the 1st 12 out of the chute. I could live with that.



I never argue with KPs stats, but us amost running the table against a top-ranked OOC schedule out there but ending up 22-7 has me scratching my head.

hmmmmm

rennis
11-03-2011, 02:42 PM
Somebody know how it is that Ken predicts a 22-7 record but game by game he only shows 3 losses? Acccccccccck!

haha, just saw this too.

There is a flaw and explains my post above ^

ha

maynard g krebs
11-03-2011, 02:55 PM
Its simple probabilities. Predicting an individual win you just have to finish better than 50%. Predicting total numbers over the course of the season, you have to consider all those percentages in the 70s and figure that while the odds are we'll win that specific game, that over the course of several games, we're likely to lose one or two.

Here's the statistics 101 math process: Add the numbers in the win probability number column, then divide by the total number of games. Round up or down to the nearest 100, and drop the 00 from the end, and you have 7 losses.

MDABE80
11-03-2011, 03:06 PM
O.

TheZagPhish
11-03-2011, 03:56 PM
Well...for simplicity, look at it this way...

Let's say I have a bucket full of apples, and a bucket full of 3 grapes. If I dump the bucket of apples over, and there are horses nearby, the horses will probably come over and eat the apples. If I dump the bucket of grapes over, the horses probably will not see the grapes, and therefore, not eat them.


Okay....that didn't explain things NEARLY as good as it did in my own head.

Nevermind.

A three-grape capacity bucket is not a bucket; it's a shot glass. But the analogy was helpful for me in any event. Heck, I didn't know horses liked grapes.

awberke
11-03-2011, 04:06 PM
Here's the statistics 101 math process: Add the numbers in the win probability number column, then divide by the total number of games. Round up or down to the nearest 100, and drop the 00 from the end, and you have 7 losses.

You forgot to multiply by pi

kitzbuel
11-03-2011, 04:40 PM
Somebody know how it is that Ken predicts a 22-7 record but game by game he only shows 3 losses? Acccccccccck!
4 of those 3 losses are in conference, too.

maynard g krebs
11-03-2011, 05:05 PM
You forgot to multiply by pi

Uhoh, that means 22 losses for the Zags. On the plus side, it also means they tie Wilt's 76ers for second alltime with 69 wins. They sure will be tired by tournament time.

ZagsGoZags
11-03-2011, 09:49 PM
He must have factored Arizona's loss in there

U of Ariz fell like a bomb

U of W down nice and low where any team led by Chicken Romar ought to be