Surprising Stat?

**cjm720** · 08-01-2011, 10:02 AM

A bit surprising. I'd estimate that percentage is closer to 50% if it was based on a top 25 rating at the time of the game, opposed to the end of the season.

**gozagswoohoo** · 08-01-2011, 10:15 AM

Ouch, would NEVER have guess 9-30....sheesh.

**U Zig, I Zag** · 08-01-2011, 10:19 AM

This program seems to have a history of 'inflated' wins early in the year that don't pan out with as much value by the end of the season. Solid wins against BCS opponents, sure - but we haven't always fared well against the best of the best.

It is imperative that we win these big OOC home games this year and beat a real opponent in the BIS game (UA this year...).

**tinfoilzag** · 08-01-2011, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by deathchina View Post

By my count that's 9 wins out of 39 games (23% win percentage) against top teams the past 9 years. Granted, only 8 home/semi-home games but I still would have expected to see a win rate much closer to 40 percent in these contests. Is anyone else shocked by this number?

I don't think you give enough weight to the "only 8 home/semi-home games". Home court is huge in college basketball. Gonzaga plays top 25 teams on the road (and makes some instant classics even when we don't win) and it has made Gonzaga a household name. The downside is that is really hard to beat top 25 on the road.

There is a lot of money to be made playing on ESPN regularly and winning tournament games. Why are underrated teams not making it to the tourney 13 years straight and playing big schools on the big stage? Do those underrated schools not like money?

These facts combined with the fact that "haters are going to hate" let's me argue any overrated accusations.

**GoZags** · 08-01-2011, 10:50 AM

The Zags have won their share, and the Zags have lost their share. Stats can be sliced and diced to make any case seem "case closed".

The one stat I enjoy repeating (over and over) is this one: Since Gonzaga's cute little NCAA run began in '99, a grand total of 7 schools (out of the 341 that play D1 hoops) have reached the Sweet 16 (or beyond) more often than the Zags. Duke, Kansas, Michigan State, UConn, UCLA, Arizona and Kentucky.

The Zags have NEVER had a Scout.com Top 25 recruiting class, and have had a grand total of one Rivals.com Top 25 recruiting class-- yet they're consistently in the dance -- and advance more than their fair share.

11 straight conference titles. 13 straight NCAA tourney appearances.

The Zags are doing okay.

Edited to add these tidbits from statsheet.com

http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/report_most_underrated

http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/report_most_in_the_top/2001-2002

Combine that with the NCAA success noted above -- and the lack of "big time" recruiting and again -- they Zags are doing okay.

**JPtheBeasta** · 08-01-2011, 11:37 AM

A reassuring thing to me about the Zags' resume is that we are almost always an at large bid into the tournament every year. Last year was the only one in recent memory that we were a bubble team- and we took care of that problem :] I also can't remember when the so-called experts thought that we shouldn't have been there. There have been some really good programs that have missed out on at-large bids recently.

That said, there were times when the seeding came out that I thought we were under-rated, but that is another issue...

**LongIslandZagFan** · 08-01-2011, 11:49 AM

Couple issues with this way of looking at it. First off it doesn't reflect the rankings at the time. Second, it is based strictly on Ken pomeroy. Don't get me wrong... I don't have any issues with his rankings but your average Joe working the register at the grocery store isn't going to be thinking kenpom.

**gozagswoohoo** · 08-01-2011, 11:50 AM

Also....one reason I think this list seems low to me, is that I think we have probably beat more teams that were Top 25 AT THE TIME WE PLAYED THEM, but fell out by seasons end.

Example, Baylor this last season...

**d2zag** · 08-01-2011, 12:03 PM

Gonzaga Bulldogs men's basketball - Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gonzaga_Bulldogs_men%27s_basketball

Wikipedia says we're 21-40 since 98-99. How many other non-BCS programs can say that? Memphis? Butler? Xavier? Maybeee? But that's it. That's better than a ton of programs! And going along with GoZags fantastic post, Memphis has had MULTIPLE TOP 5 recruiting classes. I would say the Zags are doing okay too.

**WILLYMCG** · 08-01-2011, 12:03 PM

Thanks for the homework. With the exception of the Duke @ MSG I attended, making most of those teams really sweat out losing to an underdog has been a kick to watch.
I believe many of those losses enhanced the Zag reputation. Obviously put fear into Husky scheduling.

**izzjess** · 08-01-2011, 12:04 PM

well i have to say...that it is what you are ranked after you have been tested and not before...I.E...at the start of last year we were ranked 12 --(i think) if a team beat us before we had gone through the year and were tested--they shouldnt be able to claim a victory over a number 12 team.. Remember that for more than half the year rankings, are at best speculation....

**LongIslandZagFan** · 08-01-2011, 12:19 PM

My numbers might be slightly off but against the major conferences since 2001-2 season

Vs. Acc 8-4
Vs. B10 5-6
Vs. A10 5-2
Vs. SEC 4-5
vs. P10 13-9
Vs. Big 12 9-4
Vs BE 6-3

**Oregonzagnut** · 08-01-2011, 12:23 PM

"End of season" overall rating is part of the problem, IMO. If we hand one of the ranked teams a loss, then they have a better chance of dropping out of the top 25. especially given that teams often try to fix what is not broken and can incur more losses. But if they beat us, they have a better chance of staying in the top 25. So if you were to do the stats with "ranking at the time of the game", I feel we would be closer to the 50% mark than the 23% mark.

Also at the end of the year, the poll is based more on proof and objectivity. The pre-season poll is based on more opinion and less objectivity. As the season progresses, the rankings go from more opinion based to proof based, and what you have at the end of the season are teams that are the real deal.

So if we win 23% of the games of those "real deal" teams, that gives us a ranking of 20 (the lower 23% of the 25 best teams) over the last 9 years. Which is higher than what the "opinion" of us almost always is.

That means IMHO, we are "UNDERRATED" not over rated. The polls usually have us ranked lower than what we actually produce by the years end.

**deathchina** · 08-01-2011, 01:29 PM

[QUOTE=tinfoilzag;677581]I don't think you give enough weight to the "only 8 home/semi-home games". Home court is huge in college basketball. Gonzaga plays top 25 teams on the road (and makes some instant classics even when we don't win) and it has made Gonzaga a household name. The downside is that is really hard to beat top 25 on the road.

For clarification, out of the 39 games in the sample size,

6 home games.
3 semi-home games.
5 away games
5 semi-away games
20 "neutral" court games.

So there are only 5 true road games on the list compared to 6 true home games. Many of the games are tournament games (maui, NCAA tourney, etc) on neutral sites. I don't think you can explain the poor record as "it's tough to win on the road" because in the vast majority of the games in the sample size, the other team was "on the road" too.

Lots of good points in this thread. I agree there is a flaw with just using Ken Pom's ranking system, but I've usually found his lists as good as any others out there. I also think end of season rankings are WAAAAY more useful than where a team is ranked when we play them, especially since so many of our big games occur during non-conference when rankings are notoriously inaccurate/worthless.

I think it's fair to say we haven't been super successful when matched up against the very strongest teams the past decade. Regardless, I still think GU is ranked somewhere between the 20-30 range of "most successful" basketball programs. We have unmatched consistency of success and almost always take care of business against lesser opponents.

"Wikipedia says we're 21-40 since 98-99. How many other non-BCS programs are close to that? Memphis? Butler? Xavier? Maybeee? But that's it. Beating 50% of the ranked opponents we play is a huge accomplishment! " - d2zag

Hmmm, haven't been in a math class since high school but I'm pretty sure 21-40 would give us a 34% win rate against the top 25, not "50%". But for those wondering what our record against teams ranked in the top 25 at the time the game was played, there it is.

Surprising Stat?

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