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cggonzaga
03-02-2011, 02:13 PM
Starting to understand why Lunardi has us fairly safely in at this point. We've played 9 teams that he has in the tournament with a 3-6 record. If WSU and Baylor got in that would be 11 teams and a 4-7 record. If we play St. Mary's in the WCC championship that would make us 4-6 with a possible 5-7 record against tournament teams. I guess we do belong.

VaBeachZAG
03-02-2011, 02:29 PM
While I respect Lunardi, his opinion is just that, his opinion. We are flirting with possible disaster being on the bubble and at the mercy of the selection committee. We should play our remaining two games like there is no tomorrow, win or go home. Lets just win the darn WCC tourney and be done with it!!

mgadfly
03-02-2011, 02:38 PM
If we are talking about the bubble AND playing Saint Mary's College then we have to assume we win our first game of the WCC and LOSE to SMC (if we beat SMC, of course we belong with our automatic bid).

I don't know if (assuming we lose to SMC) 3-7 or 4-8 gets us in the "safely-in" group.

FieldHouseFishHouse
03-02-2011, 03:24 PM
If we are talking about the bubble AND playing Saint Mary's College then we have to assume we win our first game of the WCC and LOSE to SMC (if we beat SMC, of course we belong with our automatic bid).

I don't know if (assuming we lose to SMC) 3-7 or 4-8 gets us in the "safely-in" group.

Great points. If we end up beating SMC again, we will not be on the bubble...because we will be IN!
In that case we would be about 5-7 (if SMC get at-large), or 3-6 (if SMC goes NIT) against tournament teams. There is a potential single digit seed there.

If we lose, our record against tourney teams will not be as good. I just don't see how we avoid a play-in game if we lose in the WCC tournament.

kclubfounder
03-02-2011, 03:27 PM
I think we should intentionally lose in Vegas. That way we can avoid the dreaded 8/9 seed and get a more favorable 11/12 seed.

Go Dons!!!

NotoriousZ
03-02-2011, 03:59 PM
I think we should intentionally lose in Vegas. That way we can avoid the dreaded 8/9 seed and get a more favorable 11/12 seed.

Go Dons!!!

Hahaha good one. Lunardi's opinion is a little comforting, but just a little. If we get to the final and so does SMC, I'd put the loser right in the middle of the bubble. It could burst for us or it could burst all over Dellavamouthpiece's ugly mug. Just win Zags, Sunday first please.

Norcalzag
03-02-2011, 04:01 PM
Go Dons? If we lose in the WCC semifinals we will not get into the NCAA tournament. The only way we get into the NCAA without winning our conference tournament would be a close loss to Saint Mary's in the final. And that would by no means mean we're a lock. Only sure route for this year's team is to win two games in Las Vegas.

DixieZag
03-02-2011, 04:22 PM
We are on a serious bubble unless we win out - and winning out, and then becoming a single digit seed is the worst of all possible scenarios of us getting in. I would so much rather get in as an 11. That may be impossible, b/c the committee always sees fit to seed us higher when we are weak and not high enough when we are strong. What I mean is we seem to fall into the 8/9, 4/5 or even 6 when we were hoping for a 3/4.

TL87ZAG
03-02-2011, 04:33 PM
I would so much rather get in as an 11. That may be impossible, b/c the committee always sees fit to seed us higher when we are weak and not high enough when we are strong.

Totally agree with you. An 11 seed matches up with a 6 seed, and most likely a 3 seed after that. There isn't a single 6 seed or 3 seed that we don't have a significant chance at knocking off.

Oregonzagnut
03-02-2011, 04:46 PM
One more loss to SMC would mean we move down one notch and maybe get an 11 seed or worse case we get the play-in game. Considering some don't think the play in counts as a tourny game, I disagree. If you are in the play-in game you have a shot at the N.C. You're in.

The selection committee would love a Zag/Butler or Zag/anyone play-in. They would eat it up. So that is why I think we are a lock to at least get into the play-in game. Although we are less of a TV draw than we were 5 years ago, we still are far more appealing to the national audience than say Richmond or Alabama.

Gonzaga and Mark Few give the announcers a lot to talk about. Its the story lines that sell.

BobZag
03-02-2011, 05:03 PM
As of today, Oke State and Marquette are 51 and 52 in the RPI, respectively. If those two can somehow move up onto the Top-50, it'll look awfully good for der Zags.

jazzdelmar
03-02-2011, 05:34 PM
lafayette beat holy cross tnite in 1/4s of patriot...if they win 2 more they are in dance too :)

ZagAddict
03-02-2011, 05:55 PM
As of today, Oke State and Marquette are 51 and 52 in the RPI, respectively. If those two can somehow move up onto the Top-50, it'll look awfully good for der Zags.

... and Marquette immediately drops a home game to Cincy :( The Zags CAN NOT depend upon anyone else except themselves. Win the WCC Tournament and all this discussion doesn't matter.

krozman
03-02-2011, 08:07 PM
Lunardi is the most accurate of the people who post brackets, but remember that EVERY year a bubble bursts somewhere, and Lunardi's first assumption is that the top team in each league wins their tournament. It's impossible to predict which team it is, but every year a bubble bursts. It's possible that 5 can burst and make us "safely out." So lets keep winning.!

TheCroatian
03-02-2011, 08:37 PM
I could be wrong but I don't think there has been an at large team with an RPI as high as Gonzaga's. There may have been one somewhere, but its certainly few and far between. Now with more teams it may be different but...

TM27
03-02-2011, 08:38 PM
Lunardi is the most accurate of the people who post brackets....

Actually he is not, he just gets paid the most. http://bracketproject.50webs.com/rankings.html


and just for fun check out this site. It is scary how accurate these guys have been over the past 5 years.... http://bracketology101.blogspot.com/

FieldHouseFishHouse
03-02-2011, 09:09 PM
I could be wrong but I don't think there has been an at large team with an RPI as high as Gonzaga's. There may have been one somewhere, but its certainly few and far between. Now with more teams it may be different but...

A quick Google search reveals that there in fact have been a at-large selections with RPIs in the 70s. The Zags are at 67(?) depending on when you read this.
With 3 extra bids this year, you could say GU is more like a low 60s/high 50s RPI compared with past years.
I don't really have the stats, but I bet less than 10% of eligible teams with an RPI in the 60s+ have received at-large bids. However, GU has EXACTLY the kind of profile which allows a team to overcome a "bad" RPI.

NovaZag
03-02-2011, 09:29 PM
I hope the Zags don't wind up in the "play in" game. That would mean I'd have to watch the play in game--which throws a wrench in my boycotting the new play in game by not watching it.....

MDABE80
03-02-2011, 10:11 PM
http://kenpom.com/....up to #35 today.

Baseline
03-02-2011, 10:20 PM
I say don't worry about the placement, just win out. The idea of Gonzaga and Butler pairing would be great. That would be a fun game.

ZagsGoZags
03-03-2011, 01:52 AM
good find Abe
thanks

EuroZag2010
03-03-2011, 02:20 AM
Here is Lunardi's weekly bracket

He has the zags at 11 seed and rising


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketologyk

ellenvega
03-03-2011, 04:49 PM
I hope the Zags don't wind up in the "play in" game

If they win the WCC tourney I would be extremely disappointed if that were the case. Let the Alabamas/BC's/Clemson/Memphis' be in that.

If we lose in Vegas I'll be happy with whatever we get.