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View Full Version : Early Post: GU vs SMC: Tale of the Tape



MDABE80
02-23-2011, 12:43 AM
http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/headToHeadTeamResults?gameId=201102240538

Zag4Hire
02-23-2011, 07:11 AM
Sagarin has SMC as +6.15. So I am guessing the spread will be in the neighborhood of GU getting anywhwere between +3.5 - +4.5.

Reborn
02-23-2011, 07:53 AM
defense wins championships!!!

PeninsulaDog
02-23-2011, 09:41 AM
I thought it might be interesting to look at some statistical trends over the last five games for both GU and SMC.

GU:

FG%: 42% (~.5% less than season avg.)
3PT%: 31 % (~.6% less than season avg.)
PPG: 68 (~ 8 ppg less than season avg.)
OPPG: 58 (8 ppg less than season avg.)


SMC
FG%: 45% (~.5% less than season avg.)
3PT%: 358% (~.3% less than season avg.)
PPG: 72 (~ 7.8 ppg less than season avg.)
OPPG: 71 (~ 4.7 ppg more than season avg.)

I had assumed that the GU would be on a general statistical upswing over the past five games, relative to season averages, but that was not the case. All averages were down in the offensive categories I looked at. Defense seemed to be another story: Opponents' points per game dropped dramatically over the last five games inclusive of the loss to Memphis.

SMC, on the other hand, was also trending downward in the three offensive categories (PPG, FG% and 3PT%), but the glaring statistic was opponents' points per game: Nearly 5 ppg more than season average.

Conclusions? Hard to say since a five game stretch is a pretty small sample, and given that I didn't look at other important stats: Rebounding, FT%, etc. However, I think it's fair to say that the Zags have stepped it up on defense over the past five games (or more), while SMC's defense would appear to have faltered a bit. While the stats seem to bear that out, subjectively, having watched the Gaels' last few games, they look tired to me.

Zag4Hire
02-23-2011, 09:51 AM
I thought it might be interesting to look at some statistical trends over the last five games for both GU and SMC.

GU:

FG%: 42% (~.5% less than season avg.)
3PT%: 31 % (~.6% less than season avg.)
PPG: 68 (~ 8 ppg less than season avg.)
OPPG: 58 (8 ppg less than season avg.)


SMC
FG%: 45% (~.5% less than season avg.)
3PT%: 358% (~.3% less than season avg.)
PPG: 72 (~ 7.8 ppg less than season avg.)
OPPG: 71 (~ 4.7 ppg more than season avg.)

I had assumed that the GU would be on a general statistical upswing over the past five games, relative to season averages, but that was not the case. All averages were down in the offensive categories I looked at. Defense seemed to be another story: Opponents' points per game dropped dramatically over the last five games inclusive of the loss to Memphis.

SMC, on the other hand, was also trending downward in the three offensive categories (PPG, FG% and 3PT%), but the glaring statistic was opponents' points per game: Nearly 5 ppg more than season average.

Conclusions? Hard to say since a five game stretch is a pretty small sample, and given that I didn't look at other important stats: Rebounding, FT%, etc. However, I think it's fair to say that the Zags have stepped it up on defense over the past five games (or more), while SMC's defense would appear to have faltered a bit. While the stats seem to bear that out, subjectively, having watched the Gaels' last few games, they look tired to me.

Your last point may be the most insightful and there are stats that point to this observation as well. GU has definitely had some injuries and the flu bug has done some damage but GU has been sustaining wins. Worth noting because this board was on fire last year regarding fatigue of Bouldin, Gray, and the like.

09-10 Minutes Per Game
Bouldin 35.6
Gray 31.9
McConnell 36.1
Dellavedova 36.4
Jones 08-09 26.7

10-11
Gray 31.1
McConnell 36.7
Dellavedova 34.6
Jones 31.4

gamagin
02-23-2011, 10:56 AM
defense wins championships!!!

take it

Hoopaholic
02-23-2011, 01:21 PM
Peninsula
Been saying our offensive has had a downward trend but our defense has gelled.

Offensive numbers down because of lack of early offense in the middle portions of the game on each side of the half (about the 12 min mark at each point our point production drops dramatically)

We got to keep the early offensive action going consistently during the entire game and KEEP our defensive integrity at the level it is at