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gueastcoast
01-19-2011, 04:26 PM
A casual fanís thoughts on how many games we can lose in the WCC and feel somewhat confident of getting an at-large bid.

I think the most likely scenario if we donít win the WCC auto-bid is something like the following:

GU record pre-WCC, ex-Memphis 10-5
Assume Memphis loss (for sake of argument) 0-1
Assume Bakersfield win 1-0
Assume loss in WCC championship 1-1

We are currently 3-0 in league with 11 games remaining.

If we go 11-3 in league, weíd finish 23-10. Iíll incorporate by reference all the existing threads about the relative merits of our OOC wins (with the RPIs of those teams seemingly dropping by the day), but I donít see that picture getting much brighter between now and Selection Sunday.

Weíve already beaten UP once, so to lose 3 in conference mostly likely means weíll be swept by SMC and lose to UP in Portland. A worse scenario would be to have one of those losses be to someone other than SMC or UP.
With a loss in the WCC championship, we would most likely have lost to SMC three times, or UP twice. Weíd also have 10 losses and no real OOC marquee win. Getting swept by a budding archrival (or losing to Portland twice, who I suspect is more likely than SMC to throw in a bad WCC loss)

Iím not suggesting that "only" 9 losses (or "only" 2 in conference) makes us a mortal lock for a bid, but this framework strikes me as a ďtipping pointĒ if we donít take the WCC championship. Obviously the Memphis outcome is pivotal (and they are losing to Southern Miss as I write this) and perhaps not as great a risk as I thought a few weeks ago.

Obviously, tons of conjecture here, but thatís what the board is all about, right? Regs, feel free to poke holes in this (and I havenít been able to see as many games this season as in years past) but thought Iíd put this out for the thoughts of the better informed!

East Coast

FieldHouseFishHouse
01-19-2011, 10:12 PM
A casual fan’s thoughts on how many games we can lose in the WCC and feel somewhat confident of getting an at-large bid.

I think the most likely scenario if we don’t win the WCC auto-bid is something like the following:

GU record pre-WCC, ex-Memphis 10-5
Assume Memphis loss (for sake of argument) 0-1
Assume Bakersfield win 1-0
Assume loss in WCC championship 1-1

We are currently 3-0 in league with 11 games remaining.

If we go 11-3 in league, we’d finish 23-10. I’ll incorporate by reference all the existing threads about the relative merits of our OOC wins (with the RPIs of those teams seemingly dropping by the day), but I don’t see that picture getting much brighter between now and Selection Sunday.

We’ve already beaten UP once, so to lose 3 in conference mostly likely means we’ll be swept by SMC and lose to UP in Portland. A worse scenario would be to have one of those losses be to someone other than SMC or UP.
With a loss in the WCC championship, we would most likely have lost to SMC three times, or UP twice. We’d also have 10 losses and no real OOC marquee win. Getting swept by a budding archrival (or losing to Portland twice, who I suspect is more likely than SMC to throw in a bad WCC loss)

I’m not suggesting that "only" 9 losses (or "only" 2 in conference) makes us a mortal lock for a bid, but this framework strikes me as a “tipping point” if we don’t take the WCC championship. Obviously the Memphis outcome is pivotal (and they are losing to Southern Miss as I write this) and perhaps not as great a risk as I thought a few weeks ago.

Obviously, tons of conjecture here, but that’s what the board is all about, right? Regs, feel free to poke holes in this (and I haven’t been able to see as many games this season as in years past) but thought I’d put this out for the thoughts of the better informed!

East Coast

As far as conjecture goes, this post is not bad. I too am a fan of "bracketology" and all things tourney related.

Watching the selection process year after year, it is natural to develop a sense or expectation of what kind of numbers a team needs to grab an at-large bid. Overall record, RPI, "good wins" and "bad losses" all add up to one of two things, IN or OUT. It's a fantastic ongoing debate involving probably 50-100 teams over the course of a season.

There is one place I might disagree with you. If I was to choose the three best in-conference losses, I could make an argument for Portland (away), SMC (away) and USF(away). It is not good to loose to at home for one thing. Secondly, if the scenario you describe plays out, GU will be fiending for a top-50 win. SMC at home would be that win. USF is at 126 in the RPI right now, so its not a terrible loss by the numbers. The downside is that a loss like that breaks the streak of all good losses so far.

Last season, I started a similar thread the day Lunardi moved GU into the "Lock" column. There were about 6 games left in the season, and I speculated on how many the Zags would have to loose in order to miss out on an at-large. The thread was not well-received. I don't know, maybe my writing style is a put off.

This board is full of debaters and bull-s*itters, but the Zags missing out on the tourney is not a hot topic of conversation.

WallaWallaZag
01-20-2011, 12:23 AM
A casual fanís thoughts on how many games we can lose in the WCC and feel somewhat confident of getting an at-large bid.

East Coast

too lazy to search, but i believe there was already a thread discussing this maybe a week or two ago.