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View Full Version : The Importance of #11



bigblahla
12-29-2010, 05:43 AM
As this is my 1000th post I want to discuss an even more important number the Zags 11th regular season conference title. This could be the biggest one in years.

Genuine consensus on the board is our Zags have to win the WCC tournament to go dancing, well maybe. I believe that if we win the three games left in the OOC and win our 11th regular season title a loss in the WCC tournament championship game won't keep us from dancing.

Why?

Because of the value of winning our 11th consecutive regular season title.

Randy Bennett doesn't recruit at SMC to go dancing he recruits to beat the Zags, along with every other coach in the WCC. Why the coaching carousel in the WCC? Failure to beat the Zags.

Although most here would probably disagree I've always believed Coach and staff recruit to win the WCC not a national championship. I guess I'm a horse before the cart kind of guy.

So to me #11 is our most important league title to date, time will tell.

Just my opinion.

Go!! Zags!!!

VaBeachZAG
12-29-2010, 06:06 AM
I agree with everything you say, except I personally have no idea what carrots the coaching staff hang in front of potential recruits. Indeed conference win 11 is most important for this year for the reasons you state, and could just as well apply for number 12 next year.

ZagLawGrad
12-29-2010, 06:39 AM
All good points and opinions.

Reborn
12-29-2010, 08:42 AM
Congrats on that 1000th post. Getting that 1000th post is special. I remember the feeling. Thanks for our dedication to the board.

BobZag
12-29-2010, 09:15 AM
I agree with everything you say, except I personally have no idea what carrots the coaching staff hang in front of potential recruits. Indeed conference win 11 is most important for this year for the reasons you state, and could just as well apply for number 12 next year.

2012 is the end of the world so it doesn't matter.

titopoet
12-29-2010, 09:27 AM
2012 is the end of the world so it doesn't matter.

No, my friend, there was a math error in calculating the Mayan Calender andand you have until 2016. Party on.

TacomaZAG
12-29-2010, 09:33 AM
I agree with you that WCC Championship #11 is very important, but I believe that getting that 12th consecutive trip to the dance is even more important, especially to recruiting. I agree that all the other WCC programs recruit to beat the ZAGS, but disagree that the ZAGS only recruit to win the WCC as well. The ZAGS have been a nationally recognized program for many years (not saying we are an elite program, but we are definitely in the top three non-BCS programs and have been for many years). How do we stay there???? By continuing to attend the dance, every year, and continuing to bring in guys who will keep us at that level.

Regarding your opinion that we can make the dance without the auto berth, I would agree, with the following caveats: We must win the remainder of our OOC games and have no more than one conference loss, to SMU at their gym. Any other conference loss and we have to get the auto berth to get in, even if we win the rest of our OOC games. Also, the WCC Championship loss must be to SMU, and it must be very close. A 20-point blowout like last year and it's "Hello NIT".

Congratulations on your 1000th post...........

Go ZAGS

EngineerZag
12-29-2010, 09:45 AM
I think that even if we beat OK State, we may still need to beat Memphis to get an at large.

BobZag
12-29-2010, 10:09 AM
No, my friend, there was a math error in calculating the Mayan Calender andand you have until 2016. Party on.

Does this mean I can put away my arsenic pills?

229SintoZag
12-29-2010, 10:10 AM
I agree with you that WCC Championship #11 is very important, but I believe that getting that 12th consecutive trip to the dance is even more important, especially to recruiting. I agree that all the other WCC programs recruit to beat the ZAGS, but disagree that the ZAGS only recruit to win the WCC as well. The ZAGS have been a nationally recognized program for many years (not saying we are an elite program, but we are definitely in the top three non-BCS programs and have been for many years). How do we stay there???? By continuing to attend the dance, every year, and continuing to bring in guys who will keep us at that level.

Regarding your opinion that we can make the dance without the auto berth, I would agree, with the following caveats: We must win the remainder of our OOC games and have no more than one conference loss, to SMU at their gym. Any other conference loss and we have to get the auto berth to get in, even if we win the rest of our OOC games. Also, the WCC Championship loss must be to SMU, and it must be very close. A 20-point blowout like last year and it's "Hello NIT".

Congratulations on your 1000th post...........

Go ZAGS

I respectfully disagree with this. What is said above may turn out to be true, it may turn out to be false.

Last year Gonzaga had 3 top 50 RPI wins and got into the tournament despite losing to SMC in the conference tournament. Gonzaga also had some bad losses to San Francisco and LMU during WCC play--both with RPI numbers above 100 at season's end. These count as "bad losses." Going into the tournament, Gonzaga had a total of 6 losses, but two of them were to "bad" teams (RPI 100+). The other four losses were all "good" losses (Michigan State, Wake, Duke, St. Marys).

This year, Gonzaga at this point has no bad losses. Let me repeat that. Gonzaga has no bad losses, in terms of what the committee considers "bad." Illinois is currently at RPI 50, so if they continue to tank that could become a bad loss, but they'd really have to tank hard to end up with a RPI over 100. Our other losses are to #10 (San Diego State), # 14 (Kansas State) #37 (Notre Dame) and #60 (WSU). I expect to see Illinois and WSU numbers dramatically improve once conference play begins. I would not be at all surprised to see all 5 of our losses be "good" (i.e., top 50) losses by year end.

On the win side, currently Xavier and Baylor are "good" wins--both are in the top 50 of the RPI at the moment. IF we get Oklahoma State, that will be three "good" wins before we even start conference play. That would equal our total of good wins for last year, which were sufficient to get us into the dance.

As noted elsewhere, Portland give us an opportunity to get quality wins in the WCC this year in addition to St. Marys. Should Portland keep it together and win the games they should in conference, and perhaps split with St. Marys, there is a chance they could stay in the top 50, and a high likelihood they will not drop to above 100 in the RPI. This gives us four opportunites for potential "good" wins in the WCC. Win all four, and the Zags could have as many as 8 quality wins by tournament time if Marquette can get its act together and go .500 or better in Big East play. (Their RPI is atrocious right now, as they have played nobody outside of their losses to Duke, Gonzaga, and Wisconsin).

Remember folks, it is your entire year's body of work that is evaluated. This season is not even halfway over, and Gonzaga at this point already has 2/3 of the quality wins that got them an auto bid last year, with two fewer bad losses.

Of course, all of this can change regardless of what Gonzaga does. Gonzaga really needs all of the teams it has played to win as much as possible. Last year, the opposite happened, and teams like Illinois, Memphis, and Cincinatti all tanked during their respective conference seasons, taking away three key wins that could have been top 50 wins if those teams had simply won a few games they lost in the heart of conference play. This year, if the opposite happens, Gonzaga could very well end up with a much stronger resume than they had last year when they got the invite. If GU were to run the table and lose only in the WCC final to either Portland or St. Marys, Gonzaga would have an identical number of losses as last year, but concievably "better" losses in the committee's view. And Gonzaga would almost certainly have more quality wins.

Moral of the story is that an at large bid is there for the taking and Gonzaga can largely seal one up by just avoiding bad losses and getting a couple more good wins against St. Marys, Portland, Oklahoma State and Memphis.

DixieZag
12-29-2010, 10:27 AM
All good points above. I would add, though, that last year we had positive coverage early in the year playing the national level. This year we have been the subject of "whats wrong"? and that will take an extra effort to turn around.

I do not think we have to win out to get an at large bid BUT we simply cannot have a bad loss in conference (as noted above), no USFs this year. I am in agreement that one loss to either Portland or SMC would not derail that. And one loss should not derail a second conference championship. The committee states they look closely at who is peaking at the end of the year (while also stating the opposite - we look at the whole body of work) and it is very important that we look good against Memphis and out from them.

BTW, it is SMC not SMU - I give SM props for what they have earned, they have not earned the "university" title at the end. :)

CDC84
12-29-2010, 10:50 AM
It is important that the Zags knock off Oklahoma State. OSU is sitting at 11-1, and Stillwater is absolute hell hole for Big 12 opponents to play in. They are likely to collect some big wins. The Pokes knocked off #1 Kansas at home last year when many felt the Jayhawks were head and shoulders above everyone in the nation.

BTW - a bad loss would be a loss at Wake Forest. I know it's a cross country trip and an early start time for the Zags, but the Demon Deacons are the bottom of the barrel in the ACC. If Stetson and Presbyterian can beat them on their home floor, the Zags should be able to do the same.

TacomaZAG
12-29-2010, 10:53 AM
229 - I agree that it's all speculation at this point, and your statistics comparing this year and last are dead on. I just don't want to leave any doubt and give the committee any excuse to leave us out. Every year is new and contains new issues, so comparing last year (or any earlier year) with this year is of limited value. But.....it's all we got, so let's keep the speculation coming. Thanks for the stats, it does help me breathe easier.

Dixie - Sorry for the SMU reference, I know better than that......and I know nothing about the Southern Methodist basketball team, other than the fact that they have not yet joined the WCC. Thanks for the reminder.

Hopefully, we'll continue to get stronger (and more healthy), and peak in March instead of in November/December, taking care of our own dance card.

Go ZAGS

DixieZag
12-29-2010, 11:08 AM
TacomaZag - Ain't no thing. I wasn't responding to you as much as taking a gentle easy shot at our rival. I was once taught by a brilliant law professor who said; "If someone throws you a softball, for Godsake hit it!

Ok State and Wake Forest will probably define the tone of the rest of the season. I am really hoping that we come out crisp, confident and healthy tonight. A loss is always possible, but tonight I think the priority beyond a win is to look good, sharp, and as I said - very healthy. I will know Harris is healthy (even if he is 350 lbs) when he is jumping over guys to throw down monstrous, aggravated dunks.

gamagin
12-29-2010, 11:32 AM
thanks. Good craic.

JPtheBeasta
12-29-2010, 04:34 PM
#15 Notre Dame is beating #9 Georgetown pretty easily right now. I haven't watched the game closely but GU looked better at ND than Georgetown is right now. I agree with the sentiments that our signature wins this year will very likely end up bigger than the wins last year. I think GU passes the eye test and has a decent chance of an at-large still, barring a total relapse to where we were 3 games ago.
That said, I will really enjoy watching the WCC games with a new-found extra interest, since they will mean so much more this year.