Seth Davis(SI) Breaks down the Zags.

[23dpg]

What's going on with my Gonzaga Bulldogs? Three straight losses and a sub-.500 record -- this ain't right. I knew the loss of Matt Bouldin would hurt, but we still have talent on this roster. Should I be concerned about this team missing the tourney for the first time since 1998? Please tell me, "It's still early ..."
-- Danny, Yakima, Wash

It's still early ... but it's getting late a lot earlier than it used to. Gonzaga has a close win over Marquette in neutral-court Kansas City, but beyond that the Zags came up short in all of their other significant nonconference tests. Their game against Baylor in Dallas on Saturday is critical. If they lose, their best chance for a decent nonconference win comes at home against Xavier next Wednesday.

The Bulldogs' problems are not hard to pinpoint. I spy three. The biggest issue by far has been their defense. Check out these national rankings: Defensive efficiency, 108th. Scoring defense, 256th. Field-goal-percentage defense, 224th. Three-point defense, 314th. Blocks, 258th. Steals, 197th.

The second concern is the play of junior point guard Demetri Goodson. He is a starter who plays nearly 25 minutes a game, yet he is only averaging 4.6 points. Goodson does a pretty good job of taking care of the ball, but on the whole Gonzaga is committing 15.2 turnovers per game. If you're not going to lock up opponents on D, the least you can do is limit your opponents' possessions.
Finally, sophomore forward Elias Harris suffered a bruised Achilles tendon a few weeks ago, and he is clearly not the same player he was last year. Harris is averaging 10.4 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, down from 14.6 and 6.7 as a freshman.

[HillBillyZag]

AS Joe Friday always said ; Just the facts , Ma'am .

It's simply the brutal truth . This team plays no DEFENSE !

[zagzilla]

Seth has a keen grasp of the obvious. There is consensus among fans, coaches and pundits. It's up to the players and staff to adjust. If we do we are fine, if we can't then DOOOOOMMED.

I for one think they will adjust and we'll be a tough out in March. People will be really unhappy to see us on their side of the bracket as an under-seeded 10 or 11.

ZZ

[VinnyZag]

Links, people, links. Story is here

[hooter73]

point #2 is understated at next to ZERO offensive production and point #4 would be the same as #2 but for the whole team in general.

#1 hurts the team the most though.

[ZagNative]

The second concern is the play of junior point guard Demetri Goodson. He is a starter who plays nearly 25 minutes a game, yet he is only averaging 4.6 points. Goodson does a pretty good job of taking care of the ball, but on the whole Gonzaga is committing 15.2 turnovers per game. If you're not going to lock up opponents on D, the least you can do is limit your opponents' possessions.

As Jim Meehan pointed out in his column yesterday Meech is ranked ninth nationally with his assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.88.

It aggravates me that Davis mentions Meech in connections with turnovers. The culprits are shown below in descending order by minutes per turnover in the far right column.

If I had unlimited time and/or interest, I'd find out how many opponent points came off those turnovers.

[MDABE80]

Play defense and the offense gets better. Ours! Don't play defense and the offense gets better. Theirs!

Simple. Meech hasn't done damage and in this regard, he's improved from last year. It's not what he does..it's what he doesn't do. I like the kid though. Heart like a Lion. Just not the PG needed by this team.

[CDC84]

I still feel it's the defense that's killing us more than the offense. Everyone knew with the departure of Bouldin that this team wasn't going to be as fluid on offense. It just wasn't possible from a personnel standpoint. There is a need to compensate for that lack of offensive fluidity with a higher level of defense, and that just isn't happening.

[GUinSTL]

I assume...

I assume Seth broke us down off the dribble. Y'know, what with everybody else just bombing away from 3-land.
~B

[whatazag]

As Jim Meehan pointed out in his column yesterday Meech is ranked ninth nationally with his assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.88.

It aggravates me that Davis mentions Meech in connections with turnovers. The culprits are shown below in descending order by turnover per minute in the far right column.

If I had unlimited time and/or interest, I'd find out how many opponent points came off those turnovers.

Thanks for the chart ZN, enlightening. It appears to me that the last column should be MP TO (minutes per turnover) rather than TO PM (turnovers per minute), unless I am reading it wrong.

I am one that believes Meech is playing better this year, and am impressed by his low turnover numbers, but they are also slightly deceptive. It is well chronicled that he is not a great passer, so oftentimes he (and others) will try to feed someone down low, but the pass will be put in a bad spot and Rob or whoever will be credited the turnover and not Meech. Of course a lot of the time this is Rob's fault for standing there setting up and holding the ball low for a few seconds while he gets tripled, but sometimes it is due to the terrible entry passes from our perimeter players.

[Hoopaholic]

I still say it is 3 position not adding (until last game AROP...you go dude) to the game and Harris not being healthy is the only reason we are sub 500 right now...correct those and we are fine. Offensively we are not disjointed, subpar as we have improved in all but few areas (that Harris is down in so far) despite the tough schedule:

Shooting 48% from Floor Last Year 49%
3 pt shots 39% from floor last year 35 % IMPROVED
FT 73% from floor last year 66% IMPROVED

REb 37.7 per game last year 38 per game

Assist 16 per game last year 13 IMPROVED
Pts pg 77.1 last year 77 IMPROVED
A/TO ratio 1.1 Last year 1 IMPROVED

TURNOVERS 15.2 pg Last Year 13

SO compare this to last to see who is improved or declined so far:

Harris is 48% from floor Last year 54% MINUS 6%
27% from 3 pt last year 45% MINUS 18%
10.4 ppg Last year 14.9 ppg MINUS 5.5 ppg 4.3 Rpg Last year 7.1 Rpg Minus 2.8

Sacre 2.9 TO pg Last year 1.9 TO pg up 1 per game

Olynyk 1.8 TO pg Last year .75 to pg up 1 per game

Bouldin last year was 1.75 A to TO ratio
Gray THIS year 1.7 A to TO Ratio (career 1.5)
Goodson this year 3.88 A to TO Ratio

Team scoring 77.1 ppg last year 77We are currently #57 in scoring, #41 in assists and #32 in shooting percentage.

If we get 3 spot to contribute each night 8-10 ppg and harris back up near what he did last year we are fine.

Correct the defensive lapses, bonehead mistakes and get Harris healthy are the issues for me.

[ZagNative]

Thanks for the chart ZN, enlightening. It appears to me that the last column should be MP TO (minutes per turnover) rather than TO PM (turnovers per minute), unless I am reading it wrong.

You are absolutely right! I realized that afterward but hoped folks would get my drift.

Edited to add: Corrected the chart and my earlier post to reflect what I meant, not what I said. Thanks, Whatazag.

Second edit to add: Great post, Hoopaholic.

[cggonzaga]

I guess Seth forgot about Memphis? OK State? St. Mary's twice? I agree Baylor is critical but we still have plenty of opportunities to make up for the beginning of the season.

[Baldwinzag]

Check out these national rankings: Defensive efficiency, 108th. Scoring defense, 256th. Field-goal-percentage defense, 224th. Three-point defense, 314th. Blocks, 258th. Steals, 197th.

Aren't there only 319 teams in all of D1 hoops?

Of course I knew our 3pt defense was lackluster, but wasn't aware it was last place in the NCAA bad.

[U Zig, I Zag]

Aren't there only 319 teams in all of D1 hoops?

I knew our 3pt defense was lackluster, but wasn't aware it was actually last place in NCAA bad.

Technically we are last, last place. The last 5 teams exist only on paper and are used to funnel money for illegal casinos....