View Full Version : Analysis of our 3-pt performance

12-14-2010, 04:50 PM
Ran across this site with an interesting analysis


12-14-2010, 05:31 PM
Das Zags are offensively-challenged this year, something we fans will have to come to terms with. Nice find, rox.

Once and Future Zag
12-14-2010, 10:24 PM
They may be defensively challenged in 1 key area of the game, but they're certainly not offensively challenged. Even though the sample size is small, right now GU's the 22nd most efficient on offense (per kenpom) and well above middling on defense (110th).

Overall his metrics have got us pegged about 54th... not great, but we are the highest rated team with a losing record - and only 2 spots below the "defending runner-up" Butler.

For comparison (key seniors/early draftees):
2010 - 57 (Bouldin)
2009 - 7 (Heytvelt, Pargo, Downs, Daye)
2008 - 30 (Pendo, Kuso)
2007 - 55 (Raivio, Mallon)
2006 - 40 (Morrison, Batista)
2005 - 33 (Turiaf)

So we're at the low end of the last few years - but the actual on-court performances are better than the "eye tests" (including mine) are indicating - and really only have two metrics hurting us. Too many turnovers, and the bugaboo 3P%.

This team easily has all the pieces to sit right along with our recent Zag teams, especially given E's struggles with injury, but they're just not put together yet.

12-14-2010, 10:38 PM
Good post, rox! If they perform well at Baylor, we may be looking at the emergence of a trend change. Otherwise, more despairing, armchair coaching and hopeful speculation. Today, those are good grounding stats.

12-15-2010, 03:13 AM
The Zags slide in offensive production is misleading,imo. It's not that the 2010-2011 Zags lack offensive firepower because they do have it. The biggest problem is that one of the cylinders has not been firing as it should be (Harris). Harris' injuries have been the main cause for the slide in offensive production. As Harris' injuries improve, and he gets himself in shape, the lower offensive numbers are going to begin to go up. We saw the numbers go up against Notre Dame.

Confidence is such a huge thing in basketball, and especially in shooting. I think the Zags' confidence has been down, but it's easy to understand why. If our best player gets hurt and is playing at about 33% of what's he's capable of doing, my confidence would be shaken too. But as Harris begins to score more and play better we will see our confidence return.

I think getting someone to replace Matt B. has also been really challenging. It's taking time that's for sure. Matt did a lot for the team. Yet, I believe as time goes on Manny Arop will begin to fill the gap. He's shown us in a couple of games of what he's capable of. The challenge now is for Manny to get consistent. It seems to me that the team is getting him better shots, especially from behind the arc.

I think many of us thought that the Zag engine would not need much repairing. As it has turned out it's needed a complete overhaul. I think the Zag coaching staff has really had to work overtime this year in trying to figure out how to rebuild the engine, but I think they are figuring it out. The engine was certaily firing better against Notre Dame. We will continue to see imporvement this week too, I believe.

I don't believe that the Zags are an offensively-challenged team. The pieces are all their, I believe. Once that they are all in place, and begin to function in a way that a Zag engine performs best, we are going to see a very good offensive team. As the guys begin to understand their roles better, and learn how to play as a team, this team is going to begin to improve. As has been said over and over again, beginning with Mark Few, this particular team is going to take time to develop into the calibur of team we are used to seeing. Go Zags!