Last Four In - Bracketology

[WhitworthZAG]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[kclubfounder]

I think Joe just mailed that one in. Heck, he has WSU as a 12 and GU an 11.

[MickMick]

Forget the "at large" birth. It isn't going to happen.

First or second in the conference regular season sets up a nice conference tournament seed and eliminates an extra tournament game, but that isn't even the "end all".

Just figure on all hope resting on Las Vegas. If the Zags do manage to win the conference tournament, expect a 9-12 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Forget RPI, rankings, power ratings, ESPN.com, and opposing student section chants. Zags are in survival mode. They got nothing to lose right now. Few might as well tinker.

From this point on, it is all about the conference tournament.

[dawgfather11]

The zags have 4 oppurtunities to get much needed quality wins on their remaining schedule (ND Baylor Xavier Memphis) I'd say we really need to win 3 of those to get back to being able to secure an at-large bid. If they only get 2 or less I would suspect we would have to still win the conference tournament to get in.

[UberZagFan]

The zags have 4 oppurtunities to get much needed quality wins on their remaining schedule (ND Baylor Xavier Memphis) I'd say we really need to win 3 of those to get back to being able to secure an at-large bid. If they only get 2 or less I would suspect we would have to still win the conference tournament to get in.

Agreed that GU needs 3 of those 4, but right now it looks like Xavier is the only team of those three it could win and that's an if (Xavier did go to 3OTs with Wofford before pulling out a win and lost to Miami OH and Old Dominion--those two teams may be decent though).

If GU wins only 2 of those, they could get an at-large if they run the table in all other games and lose only the WCC championship. That's a maybe on the at-large and a big big big IF on running the table.

[dpouley]

The zags have 4 oppurtunities to get much needed quality wins on their remaining schedule (ND Baylor Xavier Memphis) I'd say we really need to win 3 of those to get back to being able to secure an at-large bid. If they only get 2 or less I would suspect we would have to still win the conference tournament to get in.

Add to that the fact that we still have to play Oklahoma St., and Wake Forrest.

Has anyone mentioned that this schedule is insane?

[Zag4Hire]

It is pretty ironic that the 2 years with the strongest non-conference slate were by far the 2 weakest GU squads of the past decade.

[hondo]

Two ways to look at OOC shedule. It can build a resume or it can destroy a team's confidence. We have long been critical of some of our opponents scheduling cupcakes early but teams need to build confidence and that is hard to do during a murderous stretch of games. By March do you want to
produce the best team or the best RPI?

[MDABE80]

Add to that the fact that we still have to play Oklahoma St., and Wake Forrest.

Has anyone mentioned that this schedule is insane?

Of course it's insane! Thats' the point. If the coaches didn't think this team was a strong team, why schedule this cadre of teams!!! Doesn't add up.
We like hard schedules..when we can handle it. Yikes! We sign up those schedules when we CAN'T handle it!....apparently.

[VinnyZag]

It can destroy a team's confidence.

That's what seems to be happening this year. They looked worse against WSU than they did against SDSU or K-State, I think. Makes me wonder if this schedule is destroying their confidence.

[BoltZag]

Forget RPI, rankings, power ratings, ESPN.com, and opposing student section chants. Zags are in survival mode. They got nothing to lose right now. Few might as well tinker.

From this point on, it is all about the conference tournament.

Bingo.

[dpouley]

Of course it's insane! Thats' the point. If the coaches didn't think this team was a strong team, why schedule this cadre of teams!!! Doesn't add up.
We like hard schedules..when we can handle it. Yikes! We sign up those schedules when we CAN'T handle it!....apparently.

I did not mean to imply insane as a bad thing. In actuality it has been an amazing first month of the season as GU is playing top quality opponents every single week.

It just makes it tough for the guys to find their game, and gain confidence, while they are playing top 25 talent every night.

[GoZags]

That's what seems to be happening this year. They looked worse against WSU than they did against SDSU or K-State, I think. Makes me wonder if this schedule is destroying their confidence.

Didn't they beat Marquette after losing to SDSU and K State (and before losing to Illinois and WSU)?

Agree about looking their worst against the Cougs.

Saturday's game is an important one on several levels.

[RenoZag]

It ought to be a capital offense to utter the word "bracketology" before Valentine's Day

[dpouley]

It ought to be a capital offense to utter the word "bracketology" before Valentine's Day

Two things that really jump out at me in that "bracketology" is the fact that Lunardi has St. Mary's winning the WCC and he has UW as a 6 seed.

Both of predictions seem uneducated. Gonzaga may be losing to top 25 teams, but they are still head and tails above the rest of the WCC in overall talent. They will no doubt win the WCC regular season, even if they have more losses this year than they have in the past. The rest of the league is just not that good.

Lunardi also has UW dropping on his current predictions and has them as a 6 seed. What explanation is there for that? That they lost in the Maui invitation to the number 9 team and number 2 team in the nation and have sense become the number one offensive team in the nation? Yes the Pac10 sucks this year, but he also has three Pac 10 teams making the field, and yet has the predicted winner (Washington) as a 6 seed.

If you analyze both teams using KenPom. He predicts that the Zags will lose between 4 and 6 more games and go 11-3 in the WCC. That will win the WCC. He is predicting UW will lose between 1 and 4 more games and go 15-3 in conference. I do not believe that a UW team that is 15-3 in conference and has a record around 24-6 to 27-3 will be a number 6 seed.

This is just my personal opinion, but I think that Joe Lunardi is an idiot. By the time of the automatic qualifiers and the locks to get into the tournament are decided each year, all he really does is predict about 5 or six other teams to make the field. The same five or six that everyone else in America is predicting. Great work Joe, that must have been tough.