CBS' Parrish -- Gary Bell, Jr. 1 of 3 Top 100 kids going non- Big 6

[GoZags]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14069265/no-conspiracy-just-truth-power-leagues-are-better

While I'm really looking forward to this upcoming season -- I'm also looking forward to Gary Bell Jr's arrival at GU.

Hopefully the Zags, Xavier, etc. will continue to break the "you have to go to a BCS school if you're an elite prospect" thinking.

[75Zag]

Power Conferences

Wow. Twenty years since a school outside of the power conferences won the National Championship. Given the attention span of those raised on Internet, video games, etc., that seems like three or four lifetimes ago. Which is why I continue to hope and pray that somebody outside the elite schools - preferably GU - can break through. But history shows that it takes 2 or 3 "Burger Boys" (or equivalent) to win the NC, and statistics like the one quoted in the article don't give me a lot of realistic hope. But somebody has to get lucky, so why not GU.

Go Bulldogs! Get Bigger!

[CDC84]

But history shows that it takes 2 or 3 "Burger Boys" (or equivalent) to win the NC, and statistics like the one quoted in the article don't give me a lot of realistic hope. But somebody has to get lucky, so why not GU.

The key is getting to one or two final fours first. That generally needs to happen before a national title can occur. The final four trips allow a program to bolster its recruiting operation and land those one or two extra players that enable a team to win 6 in a row.

Parrish is wrong to focus his article on one specific class. For example, Memphis doesn't really have a lot of 2011 recruiting needs because they grabbed so many elite players in the 2010 class. He needs to look at it over the course of 5 to 6 years. Since 2011, Gonzaga has landed 11 players who were top 100 kids with at least one major recruiting service.

Also it's really a select portion of BCS teams who are grabbing up the top 100 players. There are numerous BCS teams who, despite their football money, don't have any more of a chance of landing a top 100 player than Dayton.

[UberZagFan]

Wow. Twenty years since a school outside of the power conferences won the National Championship.

And that team was UNLV. Uber thinks that we can all agree that we don't want GU going the UNLV route to win a NC. Also, only one other team (Louisville when it was in the Metro Conference, which was pretty close to a BB power conference), is the only other non-power conference team to win the NC since it expanded to 64.

As for the historical chances of making a FF, the odds are just about as bad.

[WeSayZed]

So, the Zags have only one player in the top 100 recruiting class next year, but we have 2 players on the Wooden list of the top 50 players in the NCAA this year? It seems to me that the latter number is the more important one.

Clearly there is a relationship between recruiting Scout top 100 players and winning, but I don’t think it’s a straight forward one, and I think the way the Zags recruit makes them an outside of the box team. To start with, the Scout top 100 isn’t the real top 100 because it doesn’t include many players who play outside of the US. Harris would have ranked very high on a real top 100 list, for example. I wonder where Manny and Kelly would have ranked, and Monninghoff? Also, a lot of the one and done and two and done players don’t develop enough to be great college players when they get drafted. They’re just good pro prospects at that point. Other players are just late bloomers for one reason or another. Spangler may be a bit raw right now, but how will he compare to Wiltjer in two years? There may not be much of a difference then.

The Zags have a tonne/ton of talent this year. There’ve been a lot of changes and a lot of things have to fall into place, but this team has the potential to go very deep. We don’t need to feel inferior to anyone.

[UberZagFan]

So called "non-power" conference teams to make FF in bold:

2010 1, 2, 5, 5 Duke, West Virginia, Butler, Michigan State
2009 1, 1, 2, 3 North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Villanova
2008 1, 1, 1, 1 Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA
2007 1, 1, 2, 2 Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UCLA
2006 2, 3, 4, 11 UCLA, Florida, LSU, George Mason
2005 1, 1, 4, 5 North Carolina, Illinois, Louisville, Michigan State
2004 1, 2, 2, 3 Duke, Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech
2003 1, 2, 3, 3 Texas, Kansas, Marquette, Syracuse
2002 1, 1, 2, 5 Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana
2001 1, 1, 2, 3 Duke, Michigan State, Arizona, Maryland
2000 1, 5, 8, 8 Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin
1999 1, 1, 1, 4 Connecticut, Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State
1998 1, 2, 3, 3 North Carolina, Kentucky, Stanford, Utah
1997 1, 1, 1, 4 Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Arizona
1996 1, 1, 4, 5 Kentucky, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Mississippi State
1995 1, 2, 2, 4 UCLA, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma State
1994 1, 2, 2, 3 Arkansas, Arizona, Duke, Florida
1993 1, 1, 1, 2 North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan, Kansas
1992 1, 2, 4, 6 Duke, Indiana, Cincinnati, Michigan
1991 1, 1, 2, 3 UNLV, North Carolin, Duke, Kansas
1990 1, 3, 4, 4 UNLV, Duke, Georgia Tech, Arkansas
1989 1, 2, 3, 3 Illinois, Duke, Seton Hall, Michigan
1988 1, 1, 2, 6 Arizona, Oklahoma, Duke, Kansas
1987 1, 1, 2, 6 UNLV, Indiana, Syracuse, Providence
1986 1, 1, 2, 11 Duke, Kansas, Louisville, LSU
1985 1, 1, 2, 8 St. John's, Georgetown, Memphis, Villanova

There are 104 FF Teams since tourney expanded to 64. Of those, only 12 were from "non-power" conferences, or 11.5%. 3 of those were from the Metro Conference (essentially a BB power conference in the eighties and early nineties) and 3 were Tark's "UNLV", 2 more from Conference USA (though Memphis's 2008 "Conf USA" was not the semi-power conference it once was). That leaves 4 schools that Uber thinks most would consider "non-power" conference/teams--Butler, George Mason, Utah & UMass. With that said, it's happened 3 times out of the last five tourney, if you count Memphis. *Louisville in 2005 is in bold because Uber can't remember if they had moved to the BEast yet.

[Martin Centre Mad Man]

So called "non-power" conference teams to make FF in bold:

2010 1, 2, 5, 5 Duke, West Virginia, Butler, Michigan State
2009 1, 1, 2, 3 North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Villanova
2008 1, 1, 1, 1 Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA
2007 1, 1, 2, 2 Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UCLA
2006 2, 3, 4, 11 UCLA, Florida, LSU, George Mason
2005 1, 1, 4, 5 North Carolina, Illinois, Louisville, Michigan State
2004 1, 2, 2, 3 Duke, Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech
2003 1, 2, 3, 3 Texas, Kansas, Marquette, Syracuse
2002 1, 1, 2, 5 Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana
2001 1, 1, 2, 3 Duke, Michigan State, Arizona, Maryland
2000 1, 5, 8, 8 Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin
1999 1, 1, 1, 4 Connecticut, Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State
1998 1, 2, 3, 3 North Carolina, Kentucky, Stanford, Utah
1997 1, 1, 1, 4 Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Arizona
1996 1, 1, 4, 5 Kentucky, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Mississippi State
1995 1, 2, 2, 4 UCLA, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma State
1994 1, 2, 2, 3 Arkansas, Arizona, Duke, Florida
1993 1, 1, 1, 2 North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan, Kansas
1992 1, 2, 4, 6 Duke, Indiana, Cincinnati, Michigan
1991 1, 1, 2, 3 UNLV, North Carolin, Duke, Kansas
1990 1, 3, 4, 4 UNLV, Duke, Georgia Tech, Arkansas
1989 1, 2, 3, 3 Illinois, Duke, Seton Hall, Michigan
1988 1, 1, 2, 6 Arizona, Oklahoma, Duke, Kansas
1987 1, 1, 2, 6 UNLV, Indiana, Syracuse, Providence
1986 1, 1, 2, 11 Duke, Kansas, Louisville, LSU
1985 1, 1, 2, 8 St. John's, Georgetown, Memphis, Villanova

There are 104 FF Teams since tourney expanded to 64. Of those, only 12 were from "non-power" conferences, or 11.5%. 3 of those were from the Metro Conference (essentially a BB power conference in the eighties and early nineties) and 3 were Tark's "UNLV", 2 more from Conference USA (though Memphis's 2008 "Conf USA" was not the semi-power conference it once was). That leaves 4 schools that Uber thinks most would consider "non-power" conference/teams--Butler, George Mason, Utah & UMass. With that said, it's happened 3 times out of the last five tourney, if you count Memphis. *Louisville in 2005 is in bold because Uber can't remember if they had moved to the BEast yet.

Do we count the '96 UMASS and '08 Memphis Final Fours that were later vacated? Those teams have more in common than their non-BCS league affiliations.

[UberZagFan]

Do we count the '96 UMASS and '08 Memphis Final Fours that were later vacated? Those teams have more in common than their non-BCS league affiliations.

Count it however you like. Uber thinks Memphis is closer to "power" than UMass. The "vacated" doesn't really change the fact that they made it--yes, they made it by cheating. Also, Memphis' 1985 appearance was vacated as well. Were any of the UNLV appearances vacated?

Oh and Louisville was Conference USA at the time; and Cinci was Great West (not Metro). Uber's discussed this before: http://www.guboards.spokesmanreview....ead.php?t=1282

Bottom line, very very very rare for "non-power" conference teams to make FF, let alone with NC. So if you were a top 100 kid that wanted to play in the FF, what would you do?

[zagzilla]

4 of the past 6 years and 5 of the past 8 a mid major has gotten to the FF. Suggests that, while still rare, it is becoming more common.

We will make this breakthrough soon enough too

Go Zags!

ZZ

[UberZagFan]

4 of the past 6 years and 5 of the past 8 a mid major has gotten to the FF. Suggests that, while still rare, it is becoming more common.

But 3 of those 5 are named Memphis, Louisville and Marquette.

[jazzdelmar]

Nonsense

The whole thesis of the piece is nonsense. More than half of the bcs schools are empty suits and consistently rank below gu and several other non bcs programs.