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View Full Version : I've got a sneaking suspicion that Elias won't be alone



thespywhozaggedme
06-11-2010, 08:50 AM
Everyone's asking where our extra schollie spot is gonna come from after next season, well, I just have a hunch that Rob's gonna put up numbers that are too good to prevent him from staying. The NBA drafts on potential, and I really think after a season of 13/8 (which I think is almost a given for him) he'll be a lottery pick. Just my gut, don't blast me, but I really think it might happen.

jazzdelmar
06-11-2010, 08:55 AM
good thought, not likely.....

thespywhozaggedme
06-11-2010, 09:04 AM
good thought, not likely.....

Why is it a good thought? I think it's a bad thought, I don't wanna see him leave early, I just think it'll happen.

Nevtelen
06-11-2010, 09:18 AM
IMO Rob would have to put up big #s for him to get into the lottery. He doesn't have the qualities that NBA teams usually look for in 'potential' draftees: superior athleticism, great leaping and/or blocking ability, or major length (or playing for a practically unknown team in Europe? I kid... kind of). Rob would go probably in the 2nd round if he came out after next season, unless he really put up some monster #s IMO (maybe around 15/10 and making it look easy at the minimum).

ZagsObserver
06-11-2010, 09:20 AM
If Few thought that Rob would leave after next season, I would think that GU would have targeted another big man for next years squad.

thespywhozaggedme
06-11-2010, 09:49 AM
IMO Rob would have to put up big #s for him to get into the lottery. He doesn't have the qualities that NBA teams usually look for in 'potential' draftees: superior athleticism, great leaping and/or blocking ability, or major length (or playing for a practically unknown team in Europe? I kid... kind of). Rob would go probably in the 2nd round if he came out after next season, unless he really put up some monster #s IMO (maybe around 15/10 and making it look easy at the minimum).

Ironically, I think he has all of that; interesting how we can watch the exact same thing, and get two completely different opinions, lol. 13/8 is better than every projected lottery big this year except for Cousins. I think Rob puts those #'s up easily next season, and I bet he'll be a lottery pick.

hls97
06-11-2010, 09:59 AM
Honestly, Rob has a lot of improving to do before he can even think about being a first-round pick, let alone a lottery pick. He doesn't have strong hands. He doesn't have a face-the-basket game. He disappeared routinely last year against poor opponents in WCC play.

I like Rob, but let's be realistic. No chance of being a lottery pick next year.

Jakester425
06-11-2010, 10:06 AM
Honestly, Rob has a lot of improving to do before he can even think about being a first-round pick, let alone a lottery pick. He doesn't have strong hands. He doesn't have a face-the-basket game. He disappeared routinely last year against poor opponents in WCC play.

I like Rob, but let's be realistic. No chance of being a lottery pick next year.

Have you ever heard of Mouhamed Sene or Robert Swift? There's always a chance.

ZagNative
06-11-2010, 10:14 AM
I think you'd have to be wildly optimistic to project Rob as a lottery pick, based on what I've seen so far. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he declared for the draft after his junior year, even not expecting to be drafted until the second round. I've seen many reports that studies show an anti-senior bias in the NBA draft, including this recent piece by former First-Team All-American Corey Jacobsen, publishedi n Slam (http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/2010/05/cant-pass-up-the-draft/). Here are some of the points Jacobsen makes in the piece:
Can’t Pass Up the Draft

Casey says timing is now everything.
...
In today’s basketball culture, if you are a senior in college, most people believe you aren’t good enough to play in the NBA. If you were, you would already have declared for the Draft early and be playing in the League. Of course, there are exceptions to this rule as each year a small handful of seniors are selected in the First Round (I.e. Kenyon Martin, Shane Battier, Kirk Hinrich, Tyler Hansburough, etc.), but the recent draft trends are scary for college upperclassmen.

Some quick facts about the last five NBA Drafts (2005-2009):

• Seniors are still the highest represented class in the Draft, although the majority of them are picked in the Second Round (where contracts are non-guaranteed).

• There has not been a college senior drafted in the top 10 over the past three years.

• Senior selections in the First Round: 8 (2006), 6 (2007), 6 (2008), 6 (2009)
• Senior selections in the Second Round: 10 (2006), 14 (2007), 15 (2008), 14 (2009)
(Note: I predict an all-time low for senior selections in the upcoming 2010 Draft.)

• In the Second Round of the Draft, freshman-sophomore-juniors all have a higher likelihood of signing guaranteed contracts than a senior. Of the last four Drafts, in the Second Round, freshman sign 50 percent of the time, sophomores 75 percent, juniors 59 percent, and seniors 29 percent.
It worked out in the end as I declared after my junior year and was selected with the 22nd pick in 2002. If I wanted a guaranteed contract in the NBA, I felt I had no choice but to leave that year. I was scared to death to come back to Stanford for my senior year. Why? College seniors have to battle two major hurdles when it comes to the NBA:

1) The player has a longer exposure to NBA scouts, leaving more time for their skills to be over-analyzed. If you watch a player long enough, you WILL find weaknesses in their game. It’s inevitable.

2) He has a longer period in which he is vulnerable to injury.

The NBA Draft system puts seniors at a huge disadvantage. Some players will make it no matter if they stay one or four years (I.e. John Wall). I’m not concerned about these players. I worry for the players who could have been drafted in the First Round had they declared earlier (I.e. Chris Thomas of Notre Dame, Richard Roby of Colorado, Scottie Reynolds of Villanova). On the other hand, there are a lot of underclassmen who declare too early and get drafted in the Second Round or not at all and effectively ruin their chances of returning to college (Davon Jefferson of USC, Paul Harris of Syracuse). It’s a difficult process made even more difficult by the way the system works.Rob may be on track to graduate early, just as Josh Heytvelt did. He's spent most summers in Spokane, where I assume he attended summer school, and, of course, he had that redshirt year, where he may have been able to take more classes and rack up credits.

So, assuming he could leave early with a college degree and confronting the anti-senior bias of the NBA draft, his professional basketball future might be better served by not returning for his senior season, especially if he has a good summer on the Canadian Senior Men's team.

Go Big Rob!

theman.themyth.thelegend
06-11-2010, 10:22 AM
Sacre is a terrific talent and has all the tools to be a future 1st-Round NBA pick, yet Rob really, really needs to work on his ability to handle a double-team in the paint. I honestly feel this was our achilles' heel towards the end of the season. I will include Elias in this topic as well. We're all aware how dominant these two can be in the frontcourt, yet the moment a double-team arrived--which occured in every game following Maui--it nearly always lead to a turnover, a poor shot, or a complete stall in our half-court offense.

Whether Rob learns to recognize the defensive shift and pass out of it to the open shooter or immediately goes up strong the moment a help defender arrives to draw a sure-fire foul. Either way, Sacre(and Harris for that matter) need to figure out how to handle the double-teams more often, because they will be facing them more than ever next season.

Maybe Coach Daniels will have a plan up his sleeve to negate this weakness. We'll be an inside-out team next year and must devise a plan to free up our post players and improved perimeter shooting will also help this issue.

thespywhozaggedme
06-11-2010, 10:22 AM
I'll tell ya what. I'll bookmark the thread, and come lottery time next season, I'll repost it either way.

hls97
06-11-2010, 10:23 AM
Ironically, I think he has all of that; interesting how we can watch the exact same thing, and get two completely different opinions, lol. 13/8 is better than every projected lottery big this year except for Cousins. I think Rob puts those #'s up easily next season, and I bet he'll be a lottery pick.


Have you ever heard of Mouhamed Sene or Robert Swift? There's always a chance.

The story with those guys is the mystery surrounding them -- high school only for Swift and foreign for Sene -- actually helped them get picked earlier. Had they played 3 years of college ball, their weaknesses would have been exposed and they likely wouldn't have been drafted where they were.

Also, Sene and Swift were much longer and "projectable" than Sacre.

FlyZag
06-11-2010, 11:09 AM
Big numbers... you mean like Omar did? 20-10 numbers? Omar dominated the WCC and is only slightly sniffing being drafted at all. I know RS is more athletic than Omar.. but lets be real here. If Omar isn't in the first round after the year he had last year, then I can't see Rob leaving early for any kind of lottery... unless it's the Washington State Lottery.

zag67
06-11-2010, 11:12 AM
I am not sure if he will be ready. But I wil say if he improves as much next year as he did this year, then it might be an option for him. I also do not think he would be a lottery, but I would think he would make the first round.
He has to improve his many things, but most of them are reacheable. He needs to be more dominant in the paint and not disappear for minutes (and sometimes games). He needs to keep working on keeping the ball up and rebound strong. Lastly he needs to become a dominant defensive player.

cggonzaga
06-11-2010, 11:54 AM
Big numbers... you mean like Omar did? 20-10 numbers? Omar dominated the WCC and is only slightly sniffing being drafted at all. I know RS is more athletic than Omar.. but lets be real here. If Omar isn't in the first round after the year he had last year, then I can't see Rob leaving early for any kind of lottery... unless it's the Washington State Lottery.


Rob will never average those numbers due to the simple fact that GU has far superior talent than SMC overall. Not saying Rob couldn't average those numbers but not at GU.

I have no doubt Rob will play in the NBA. He has average-above average athleticism but NBA scouts will love his size and body and ability to not shy away from contact. He may not be a lottery pick but I'm sure he'll get drafted...after he finishes his senior season at GU.

WeSayZed
06-11-2010, 11:58 AM
Big numbers... you mean like Omar did? 20-10 numbers? Omar dominated the WCC and is only slightly sniffing being drafted at all. I know RS is more athletic than Omar.. but lets be real here. If Omar isn't in the first round after the year he had last year, then I can't see Rob leaving early for any kind of lottery... unless it's the Washington State Lottery.
That’s not how it works. There are a lot of players who do very well at the college level but who don’t have great tools for the NBA game. Samhan is one of those players, and Sacre isn’t. Physically he’s almost exactly what the NBA scouts are looking for in a C. This is probably the best draft site for analyzing players and they do a better job than I can of explaining why, even in the middle of last season when he was struggling, he was catching the eye of NBA scouts.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Robert-Sacre-5814/

VinnyZag
06-11-2010, 11:59 AM
It's been my observation that the NBA doesn't give much of a damn about college performance either way. They're interested only in height, speed, leaping ability, etc. So, I doubt whether Sacre's on-court performance, i.e., actually playing basketball, would have much effect on his draft status.

WeSayZed
06-11-2010, 12:07 PM
Does everyone remember the Florida State game?
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=300782250

Alabi is projected to go in the high 20s in this year's draft.
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2010/

Birddog
06-11-2010, 12:59 PM
Have you ever heard of Mouhamed Sene or Robert Swift?
Where is Swift now? probably killing time in a tattoo parlor.

dim4sum
06-11-2010, 01:16 PM
towards the end of last season, Rob showed more aggressiveness for the ball. His shot selection however was woefully predictable....the turnaround jump that he was stuck on was surprisingly defensible, since he telegraphed his moves well in advance. Taking it directly to the hole would make his shot selection indefensible, but he rarely got there. He also was not very good at involving his teammates. Don't remember one single dynamite outlet pass triggering a fast break. He has yet to show any court awareness of where his teammates are. Those times he was double teamed down low, he could have popped the ball out to steven or someone else for an uncontested three. There is so much about his game that needs improvement. Look at a big like Brian Scalabrine....he's got more moves than Sacre, but has spent his entire NBA career as a 12th man with two boards and two points a game max.
I wish Rob the best but he needs work. Luckily, he's got two years to get it together.

Reborn
06-11-2010, 02:13 PM
At this point in Rob's career he is not ready to be drafted by the NBA. I do not know where he will be by the end of next year. Next season will determine that. If he improves as some of you believe he will, then he could be drafted. I think a real key, and no one has mentioned it, is his rebounding and defense. These are his biggest weaknesses. He is not a shot blocker,nor an intimadator on D. He generally get's into foul trouble early in the game (which is really NOT good). Because he gets into foul trouble he plays tentative on defense. I feel the same way about his rebounding. I believe he has a hard time jumping off the groud. I'm not sure why, but he just can not leap. Bad, bad bad. He will be better in two years. And I don't buy all the stuff being said about Senior not being drafted. If they are good enough they are. Look at all the Juniors that DO come back for their Senior years.

Rob will need to come back his Senior year, imo. He really has a lot to learn.

BobZag
06-11-2010, 02:19 PM
Where is Swift now? probably killing time in a tattoo parlor.

Is Johan Petro still in the league? What were the Sonics thinking?

Regarding Sacre, my own personal opinion is he stays through his senior year and earns his way into the 1st Round. Brandon Roy did this. Jameer Nelson, JJ Redick, too, and others I'm forgetting have. I think Rob will, too.

OZZY
06-11-2010, 02:57 PM
Is Johan Petro still in the league? What were the Sonics thinking?

Regarding Sacre, my own personal opinion is he stays through his senior year and earns his way into the 1st Round. Brandon Roy did this. Jameer Nelson, JJ Redick, too, and others I'm forgetting have. I think Rob will, too.

I agree BZ, Rob has always indicated that he would stay with G9onzaga the four years and his stated goal is to bring a FF, if not a championship to GU. Givent he strength of the teams over the next two years I think he will stay.

Rob will end up playing NBA, and he is still has plenty of improvement left in him. last summer it was Casey, for the next two years it will be Daniels (who has a record for it) that will guide him.

On a side note one thing that no one seems to have mentioned about Dower's readiness is the fact that he had to practice against Elias, Rob, Olynyk and Foster for all his redshirt year. If he isn't ready to take on other teams bigs by now he never will be....

810Suited
06-11-2010, 03:35 PM
Potential isnt a word thrown about a lot with players in their 3rd year

BobZag
06-11-2010, 04:05 PM
He's played one full year, that's it. Bits and pieces of two other years but only one year from start to finish.

bigblahla
06-11-2010, 04:21 PM
Is Johan Petro still in the league? What were the Sonics thinking?

Regarding Sacre, my own personal opinion is he stays through his senior year and earns his way into the 1st Round. Brandon Roy did this. Jameer Nelson, JJ Redick, too, and others I'm forgetting have. I think Rob will, too.

Rob stays. :D

Go!! Zags!!!

810Suited
06-11-2010, 04:41 PM
He's played one full year, that's it. Bits and pieces of two other years but only one year from start to finish.

Thanks, fortunately I too have followed Gonzaga basketball over the past few years. Point was people rarely if ever leave for the draft to be drafted on the P-word that are old enough to drink.

BobZag
06-11-2010, 04:45 PM
Thanks, fortunately I too have followed Gonzaga basketball over the past few years. Point was people rarely if ever leave for the draft to be drafted on the P-word that are old enough to drink.

Cool.

BDog94
06-11-2010, 05:12 PM
Rob has an NBA body but at this point he has only a slightly above-average college post game, and unfortunately slow feet with a slow-twitch jump. His jump and slow post movement are NOT going to change by any significant degree. Rob has to learn and master more post moves based on strength, position, leverage, etc. A quick developing, deeper fadeaway turnaround in the low post to either the baseline or middle of the key would go a LONG LONG way to getting him onto an NBA team. Until he shows he can use his size effectively game to game against other college bigs, he won't be leaving us for the NBA.

He could do all this improvement in 2010, but the kind of polished post game he needs to show isn't likely to appear consistently out of the blue this season. I hope I am wrong but regardless - I love the guy, and I think he is, and will be, one of the best true centers Gonzaga has ever had. And I also believe he has the touch and athleticism to have a great low post game. Just needs the coaching and experience.

U Zig, I Zag
06-11-2010, 08:46 PM
Big numbers... you mean like Omar did? 20-10 numbers? Omar dominated the WCC and is only slightly sniffing being drafted at all. I know RS is more athletic than Omar.. but lets be real here. If Omar isn't in the first round after the year he had last year, then I can't see Rob leaving early for any kind of lottery... unless it's the Washington State Lottery.

If Rob developed softer hands like Omar and worked on his power/jumping speed I think he would be a lottery pick with a 15-16/9 season. He has the body type you want for the NBA. He is not over or undersized physically (proportions). He has the physique of a fit 6'1" guy, blown up to 7'.

He needs explosiveness, ala Casey or Blake Griffin. If he is 2-3 feet from the hoop he needs to be thinking dunk or bust. I am not sure if you can train that though.