Interesting article. Link to story is here.
The study, by Jay Coleman, Mike DuMond and Allen Lynch, looked at selection data from 10 tournaments (1999-2008) and found that when seeding the tournament, membership in one of the six BCS conferences is worth an average of an extra 1.75 seeds. The study also found that having a conference representative on the 10-member selection committee resulted not only in a higher seed but also in a better chance of getting an at-large bid. According to the authors, a true bubble team (one with a 50-50 chance of getting in or being left out) would have a 49 percent better chance of getting in if its athletic director is on the committee, a 41 percent better chance if its conference commissioner was on the committee and a 23 percent better chance if a fellow conference AD is a member of the committee.
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While the authors' findings probably wouldn't surprise anyone who has ever sat on a barstool and debated the selection committee's seeding and at-large choices, this is the first time anyone has performed a statistical analysis to determine whether the conventional wisdom is true. The appearance of bias, meanwhile, is a sensitive subject to the NCAA, which distributes millions of dollars to conferences and schools based on how many games each school plays in the tournament.
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While the authors' findings probably wouldn't surprise anyone who has ever sat on a barstool and debated the selection committee's seeding and at-large choices, this is the first time anyone has performed a statistical analysis to determine whether the conventional wisdom is true. The appearance of bias, meanwhile, is a sensitive subject to the NCAA, which distributes millions of dollars to conferences and schools based on how many games each school plays in the tournament.
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