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View Full Version : This & that from reviewing GU & FSU @ Kenpom.com



lothar98zag
03-15-2010, 10:22 PM
I may not type more words in the rest of my March posts combined. You’ve been warned. Misc info first & then some detail. Here goes -


#19 FSU - main stat page (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Florida%20St.)
#56 GU - main stat page (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Gonzaga)

FSU 68% chance win, predicted score 67-63

GU is the lowest at-large (http://kenpom.com/stats.php). Lowest at-large to miss = VTech @ 31. 10 teams ranked higher than GU didn't make it.


GU is less than average with consistency (http://kenpom.com/rate.php?s=Consistency) and FSU is worse (249 vs 312).
FSU had better than average “luck” (http://kenpom.com/rate.php?s=Luck) and GU had even more (110 vs 34).

Both teams are tall in general and tall for position (top 25 or better).

Both teams are among the 50 least experienced teams.

GU plays their starters way more minutes than FSU. FSU plays 9 and that’s basically it. GU’s has played 6 (now 5) off the bench. (I won’t get into any other player data in this post.)

FSU 1-6 when giving up 70 or more. 21-3 when allowing 69 or less.
GU 23-3 when scoring 70 or more. 3-3 scoring 69 or less.

FSU lost all 6 games (http://kenpom.com/expsked.php?&c=O_OE&team=Florida%20St.) they allowed an Offeff of 102 or higher. (the 6 they gave up 70 or more)
GU was 1-5 in games they had an Offeff of less than 102.

There doesn’t appear to be any relation to the speed of the game (http://kenpom.com/expsked.php?&c=Pace&team=Gonzaga) & GU’s losses. (slow = GU loss was a myth this year) Same with FSU – pace didn’t matter (http://kenpom.com/expsked.php?&c=Pace&team=Florida%20St.).

Looking @ the bottom of the page of the above few links you can see that eFG% is the most contributing factor to both teams Offeff & Deffeff. Not shocking, but there it is...



Now some detail.

It's been noted that FSU's D is very good & this ranking reflects that. #1 raw & adjusted - but digging deeper reveals how they're good & how that relates to GU's offense:

eFG% - FSU is one of the nation's best on D & GU is almost as good on Off.
And if continues - if you review all "Four Factors" of FSU D vs GU O, they more or less match up strength vs strength & are fairly even w/ FSU getting the nod overall. So who's strength will win out? Let's dig deeper.

Misc/style/point dist-
Obviously FSU does a lot well on D, but one thing they do is give up a high # of 3 pt attempts, relative to 2 pt shots they let teams shoot better from 3, and a high % of opp total pts come from 3. This is all by design since they are amazing vs 2pt shots % & blocks. Looking @ GU, they are best @ 2 pt % & not getting blocked. Again str vs str. What GU doesn't do much this year is take 3s. Even though they shoot well from 3, they just don't do it much and a very low % of their pts end up coming from 3s.

So it’s possible that more 3s by GU could be good, but is GU this way because the Zags have limited 3s to those that can make them? Or are they just that much better @ 2s? I don't know for sure, but I do think GUs 3s % & quantity will be one of the two keys on this half of the court.

The other key I see is FTs. GU shoots a ton of FTs compared to FGs attempted & if they can force this factor vs FSU’s blocks & steals I see that advantage going to GU even w/ the low FT%. But if they aren’t getting the calls, they need to mentally and strategically switch gears quickly to not lose their mental focus which they’ve seemed to do more late this season.


How about GU on D vs FSU’s O?

For a tourney team, GU’s D & FSU’s O are good but not great with GU’s D being better than FSU’s O just like FSU’s D is better than GU’s O – even though GU’s O is better than their own D. I guess what that means is GU is more balanced.

There are a similar category matches on this side of the ball as well. FSU shoots 2s better & GU defends 2s better. 3s are not as good on either side – average actually. Not a lot actually sticks out to me with this matchup – except TOs.

GU forces very few TOs, but FSU turns it over like they’re playing hot potato. Will GU try to force FSU into TOs by doing something they weren’t that good at all year or will GU’s poor TO D allow FSU to hold onto the ball or will FSU turn it over all day long w/o GU even trying? (this also ties into steals – GU does it very little & FSU allows it a lot) Whatever happens here should be a big factor.



So I while all things are important in the end and a team that wins usually does a lot of things right, when it comes to stats, I’m going to be focusing on 3 things:

Lothar’s 3 pillars of excessive statitude
1. GU’s 3pt shooting (quantity, quality, %)
2. GU drawing fouls on the Offensive end
3. FSU’s TOs






(Hopefully not proofreading this doesn’t make me look dumber than my Foo posts.)

Comments? Anyone want to break down the individual player stats for each team?

caduceus
03-15-2010, 10:52 PM
Great analysis, Lothar. Thanks for digging deep into the stats.

Your link to Kenpom's FSU team page needs editing...it's pointing to Florida's, BTW.

lothar98zag
03-15-2010, 11:25 PM
Your link to Kenpom's FSU team page needs editing...it's pointing to Florida's, BTW.
that was odd. fixed now.

cjm720
03-16-2010, 06:28 AM
Seems like the key is to score 70+.

My concerns: our 3 pt shooting and free throws.

I'd like to see Sacre, Will, KO knock the crap out of Alabi (sp?).

Go Zags!!!!!

MedZag
03-16-2010, 08:17 AM
Great analysis, lothar.

kitzbuel
03-16-2010, 08:46 AM
I don't think Zag 3pt shooting has to be overwhelming, but just enough to be unpredictable and keep Singleton, Snaer and Reid honest. Keep the floor open and Zags can take advantage with their use of space.

They don't seem to have anyone who is lighting it up from behind the arc, at least (so I would assume that Dulkys will have a career 3pt day against us).

VinnyZag
03-16-2010, 09:13 AM
Thanks for doing that.

Makes me think Meech and Gray will be important in this one. Those are two guys who can force turnovers without GU resorting to a press, which they haven't done much this year. Also makes me wish Arop was available.

gamagin
03-16-2010, 09:30 AM
Seems like the key is to score 70+.

My concerns: our 3 pt shooting and free throws.

I'd like to see Sacre, Will, KO knock the crap out of Alabi (sp?).

Go Zags!!!!!

Few said as much in his interview(s) w/Rome & Hudson. He said FSU likes to grind out a low point game (50 or less) and we have to break through that and score our points and play our game.

FSU's game sounds a little like the old Tony Bennett WSU offense.

lothar98zag
03-16-2010, 09:55 AM
Here is an interesting thought...

From http://sportschatplace.com/college-basketball/marks-picks/37797-marks-free-pick-college-basketball-ncaa-first-round-gonzaga-bulldogs-florida-state-seminoles-31910-.html

"the Zags are involved in so many blow outs that their bench sees plenty of floor time which effects their stats."

I am thinking it may affect their will to win often too.
It does affect GU's stats, but the question is how. For example if the starters run up the score and then the bench plays even or loses the lead, GU's stats aren't as good as the could have been if the starters stayed in the whole time. So the bench reduces the statistical domination. On the other hand if GU was in more close games, and for example wins by 5pts instead of 15pts, their stats would be worse than a blow out regardless of whether the bench "ruined" the stats or not. So even though the blow out wasn't that great statistically it's still better than a close game...

In the end we can only go with the stats we have, not the stats we think we should have. Plus at the links I used, the data is adjusted to reflect the opponent quality, so that helps some.

zagzilla
03-16-2010, 09:57 AM
2 things I will look for:

1. Early success with 3's. If Bouldin and Gray can a few early treys, then things open up inside. If they miss early pressure will increase on play in the paint and we may tighten up.

2. Gray playing tight defense. A couple of times this year, SG has played very aggressive, in your face, hand checking defense. I think he needs to start the game that way and see how the officials react.

This is a game vs physical ACC team in Big East territory, so we may get away with more than the WCC tolerates. We also should anticipate the same from FSU and make sure we don't get rattled when we don't get some early calls-especially EH and RS.

I think a physical game like the recent ones vs Tennessee, Cincy, Wisky and Memphis are what the coaches need to prepare the team for.

Go Zags!

ZZ

Robzagnut
03-16-2010, 10:16 AM
Bouldin is the key.

If he plays like he did the last two weeks of the season, GU is sunk, because FSU can then put their defensive stopper on Grey or Harris. 1 out of the big 3 performing well isn't going to cut it. GU needs 2 of the 3 to step up and play well.

MedZag
03-16-2010, 10:37 AM
This is a game vs physical ACC team in Big East territory, so we may get away with more than the WCC tolerates. We also should anticipate the same from FSU and make sure we don't get rattled when we don't get some early calls-especially EH and RS.

I think a physical game like the recent ones vs Tennessee, Cincy, Wisky and Memphis are what the coaches need to prepare the team for.

Go Zags!

ZZ

Agreed. I remember Izzo practicing his team in football pads in preparation for the tourney 5 or so years ago. I think this is going to be "one of those games" the Zags need to be focusing on practicing physically to match what is likely to occur on the court.

lothar98zag
03-16-2010, 10:59 AM
Agreed. I remember Izzo practicing his team in football pads in preparation for the tourney 5 or so years ago. I think this is going to be "one of those games" the Zags need to be focusing on practicing physically to match what is likely to occur on the court.
I think the MSU & Cinci games were good prep for the FSU game. Both were close. Both times GU's OffEff was in the 90s & they kept the other team in the 90s too. While they can always hope to be better, I don't think GU should plan for being any better on the Off end than they were in those games. GU's D must keep FSU's O in check.

Extra note - The Cinci game went into OT, yet the final score was only 61-59. A slow, low scoring game won't be what GU wants, but it won't be the end of the world if it happens...

RenoZag
03-16-2010, 11:32 AM
Our bigs need to stay out of foul trouble. If the zebras are calling ticky-tack BS calls ( like WCC Libbey-ized refs do ) Zags will need to ADJUST. Harris & Sacre need to be on the floor a lot. . .Will the Whiffer won't cut it.

As for KO: he's been passing up open looks all season so there's no reason to think he'll be able to start scoring from the outside now.

Kong ? Would love to see him live up to the hype against first-rate competition.