View Full Version : Where would Few rank on this list

03-15-2010, 12:02 AM
Suppose I could go through past brackets and figure out Few's achievement quotient but I figure one of you accounts can do it more efficiently :)


Mastering your medium
The Minutes looked at every coach in this field of 65 -- and at every previous tourney they'd been in.

The goal: to find out which coaches with a minimum of five games' NCAA tournament experience were the best at outperforming their seeding -- and which are the worst.

The formula: Take the number of games played beyond what each team's seeding projected, and divide it by the total number of NCAA tournament games coached.

Example: Stew Morrill is 1-7 as a coach in the tournament at Montana and Utah State, but by seed should have been 0-7. Thus Morrill has overachieved at a rate of 12.5 percent.

Thus, the five coaches in this year's field who have the highest overachiever rate:

Mark Turgeon (31), Texas A&M. NCAA record: 4-3. Overachiever rate: 42.9 percent. He took seventh-seeded Wichita State to the Sweet 16 in 2006 and has won a couple of games as a No. 9 seed.

Tom Penders (32), Houston. NCAA record: 12-10. Overachiever rate: 40.9 percent. He's won an amazing 10 games as a double-digit seed -- and now he'll have a chance to win some more from that range in this tourney.

Mike Anderson (33), Missouri. NCAA record: 6-4. Overachiever rate: 40 percent. Took down No. 1-seeded Kentucky in the second round in 2004 while at UAB, and last year advanced a No. 3 seed to the Elite Eight.

Fran McCaffery (34), Siena. NCAA record: 2-4. Overachiever rate: 33 percent. Best run: The Saints have won tournament games each of the past two years despite being seeded 13th and ninth.

Matt Painter (35), Purdue. NCAA record: 4-4. Overachiever rate: 25 percent. He hasn't pulled any huge upsets -- but he has never had a team bow out before it was expected to. (That may change this year without Hummel.)

And the five coaches in this year's field with the worst track record of playing below their seeding:

Oliver Purnell (36), Clemson. NCAA record: 0-5. Underachiever rate: 80 percent. He's spit the bit in the first round with teams seeded fourth, fifth and seventh.

Leonard Hamilton (37), Florida State. NCAA record: 3-4. Underachiever rate: 14.3 percent. Lost in 1999 (when he coached Miami) in the second round as a 2 seed and in 2009 in the first round as a 5 seed.

Mike Montgomery (38), California. NCAA record: 16-13. Underachiever rate: 27.6 percent. Had some memorable second-round losses with No. 1-seeded Stanford in 2000 and '04.

Bob Huggins, West Virginia. NCAA record: 22-18. Underachiever rate: 20 percent. For a while (like, five times between 1997 and 2002), he was the king of the second-round upset loss. Often with very highly seeded teams.

Lorenzo Romar (39), Washington. NCAA record: 5-5. Underachiever rate: 20 percent. Got whacked in the 2005 Sweet 16 with a No. 1 seed -- then again, that team should not have been a No. 1 seed.

Where some of the biggest names rate on the achievement scale:

Rick Barnes (40), Texas. NCAA record: 18-16. Underachiever rate: 14.7 percent. This will be his 15th consecutive tournament, but only one Final Four to show for it -- despite a wealth of talent.

Jim Boeheim's teams have been a mixed bag in relation to their seed.
Jim Boeheim (41), Syracuse. NCAA record: 42-26. Underachiever rate: 4.4 percent. He's had some major early flameouts. None of Boeheim's three Final Four teams was a No. 1 seed.

John Calipari, Kentucky. NCAA record: 25-11. Underachiever rate: 16.7 percent. Has had a number of teams knocked off one round earlier than expected, including last year at Memphis.

Tom Izzo (42), Michigan State. NCAA record: 31-11. Overachiever rate: 18.8 percent. That's an impressive stat for a guy who has coached that many games and had that many high seeds over the years.

Mike Krzyzewski (43), Duke. NCAA record: 71-22. Underachiever rate: 8.6 percent. Teams consistently overachieved or met expectations from 1984 to '94. After that, there have been many more disappointments.

Rick Pitino (44), Louisville. NCAA record: 38-13. Overachiever rate: 3.9 percent. Took teams seeded sixth (Providence 1987) and fourth (Louisville '05) to the Final Four. Also has had some tough losses in the second and fourth rounds with highly seeded teams.

Bill Self, Kansas. NCAA record: 24-10. Overachiever rate: 5.9 percent. A couple of bad early-round losses at Kansas were counterbalanced by some upset wins at Tulsa.

Tubby Smith (45), Minnesota. NCAA record: 29-14. Overachiever rate: 2.3 percent. Had some great underdog runs at Tulsa and Georgia, then won it all as a No. 2 seed at Kentucky in 1998. Since then, not much to brag about.

And an underrated overachiever: Lon Kruger (46), UNLV. NCAA record: 14-11. He's had several surprise runs in several locales. Took fourth-seeded Kansas State to the 1988 regional final, third-seeded Florida to the '94 Final Four and seventh-seeded UNLV to the 2007 Sweet 16.

PS - I called out Pat for leaving the Zags off the Minutes' Dance edition, if even to hate on them. What does a team have to do to get some respect around here?

03-15-2010, 08:32 AM
im curious how he'd rank here too... has anyone run the number yet?

id rather the model look more at years when a team outperformed seed #... this model would not punish teams with 1-4 seeds, because if you're a 1-4, you have at least 2 wins per year that will go against your overachieve number... i guess if you just looked at each year as one data point, the sample sizes wouldnt be large enough for most coaches to get a meaningful # though.