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gaelsfan
03-13-2010, 08:46 AM
Granted I am a Gaels fan, but when i look at the tourny resume of the two teams I can't come up with another conclusion than they have near identical tourny resumes and if any thing I give an edge to St. Marys. The common wisdom on this board is that Gonzaga is a 6 or 7 seed and the Gaels are a 9,10, or 11 seed clearly isn't supported by the facts. Please follow along. The tournament committee considers the following 5 factors. 1) RPI, 2) Strength of schedule, 3) Good wins, 4) bad losses 5) last 10 games.

Lets look at the data.
RPI - As of this morning college RPI which I think most would agree is the RPI "bible has SMC as 36 and Gonzaga as 38. Edge St. Mary's.

SOS - Again using collegerpi Gonzaga's rank of SOS is 115 and SMC is 120. Edge gonzaga but clearly the SOS is much closer than most on this board seems to think. The common wisdom before the WCC final is that SMC just didn't deserve at large contention because the OOC schedule was so darn week. I submit that that is total bias. Gonzaga may have played larger "name" teams, and in most years that would translate into better schedule, but this year the teams that gonzaga beat, often didn't live up to historic expectations, and we can't give credit to gonzaga losing to big name teams such as Duke. AS you will see below, our good wins were very comparable.

Big Wins: (not counting the wins against each other)
Gonzaga: (RPI)
Wisconsin - 21
Cincinnati - 61
Illinois - 72

SMC
San Diego St - 24
Utah State - 26
NOrthEastern -74

Agreed that Gonzaga clearly beat the bigger name Teams, but if you are going to give any credit to RPI, SMC's big wins are clearly better. WE beat two top 30 teams to only one for gonzaga.

I Have to give the edge to SMC again.

Bad Losses
Gonzaga
San Francisco - 207
LMU - 175

SMC
USC 110
Portland - 79

Again, it seems to me we have to give the edge to St. mary's.

Last 10 games: Both Gonzaga and SMC were 8-2 in the last 10 games. This seems like it is a push.

Head to head: Gonzaga beat SMC 2 of 3 games. So even though we won the biggest of the games I will give the edge to Gonzaga.

One intangible which is hard to define, but clearly worked against st. mary's last year is the health of the players. The committee has gone on record saying they consider this. With Manny being out, does that change anything for gonzaga? probably not, but it is worth putting out there. So. . in conclusion.

RPI - Edge St. mary's
Strength of Schedule - Edge gonzaga
Best Win's - Edge St. Mary's
Bad loses - Edge St. Mary's
Last 10 - Push
head to head - Edge Gonzaga
intangible - Possible negative for gonzaga - (but probably not)

so, in review, gonzaga is clearly the bigger name basketball program. Their schedule is clearly against bigger name programs. BUt if you look at the numbers from this year, I submit to you that SMC actually has a better tourny resume than gonzaga when we look at this years results and don't consider historic reputations. So I guess we can see how much the committee is impartial or takes name recognition into account.
Would love to hear some real analysis of this as to where any zags fan thinks I went wrong. But the idea that gonzaga's resume is clearly supperior than the gaels isn't supported by the numbers.
I think both teams should be in the 7 or 8 range. . and of course you know which one I think should be the 7 and which the 8

willandi
03-13-2010, 08:54 AM
The numbers may look that way, but the final truth is..."Who got stuck with Samhan?"
The Zags are hands down the winner there.

BobZag
03-13-2010, 08:54 AM
We'll all see Sunday at 3:00pm on CBS.

Don't forget to set your clocks ahead a hour tonight.

ZagMania
03-13-2010, 08:58 AM
I don't think they are that much different, thats why Gonzaga is a 7-8 seed while St. Mary's is a 9-10. But I'd still say that Gonzaga's is a little better.

You are forgetting that of the wins you've listed none of the Zags wins on that list were at home, and you are missing a win at Memphis. Also, outside of the two bad losses, all the Zags losses were to tournament teams.

TacomaZAG
03-13-2010, 08:59 AM
The numbers don't lie, but I can't get myself to completely agree with you (obvious Zags bias coming out). I think you hit the nail on the head about the Zags playing the historically "bigger name" teams but not necessarily the better teams this year, thus the atypical RPI and SOS numbers.

My question (obviously moot now because SMC took care of their business in the WCC championship) is this......Do you think SMC gets an "at large" bid to the dance if they would have lost the WCC championship???? Given the committee's bias against non-BCS teams in the past (think SMC last year) I have to think SMC doesn't get in.

Back to reality..............Good luck in the dance, regardless of seed and game location, it can only help the conference to have multiple bids.

Go ZAGS

realtydog
03-13-2010, 09:03 AM
I kind of like that Conference champ record we have going----dominating baby

gaelsfan
03-13-2010, 09:26 AM
I don't think they are that much different, thats why Gonzaga is a 7-8 seed while St. Mary's is a 9-10. But I'd still say that Gonzaga's is a little better.

You are forgetting that of the wins you've listed none of the Zags wins on that list were at home, and you are missing a win at Memphis. Also, outside of the two bad losses, all the Zags losses were to tournament teams.

YOu are right. . I did miss memphis. . but at best that puts the good wins stat to a push. because memphis is a 50's RPI and sMC still has two top 30 wins.

To you second point, SMC beat Utah state on the road which is an impossibly hard place to win. NOrtheastern was at a neutral location. So slight edge to gonzaga in your point, but I don't think it overcomes the rest of the stats.

SMC also only had the two bad losses , all other loses were to tourny teams. SO that point of yours is a push.

I did overlook memphis. I appologize, but I still stand by the rest of the anlysis. But memphis is not an at large team this year and both SD St and Utah state are. .

But as somebody said, we will see on sunday.

hondo
03-13-2010, 09:28 AM
I think we can all agree that it would have been an injustice had either of our teams not gone to the dance.
I had a short visit with Bo Kimble in Las Vegas and from information he shared with me I could realistically hope that next year Loyola might join us and we could have 3 tourney worthy teams in the league which would be great.

gaelsfan
03-13-2010, 09:28 AM
My question (obviously moot now because SMC took care of their business in the WCC championship) is this......Do you think SMC gets an "at large" bid to the dance if they would have lost the WCC championship???? Given the committee's bias against non-BCS teams in the past (think SMC last year) I have to think SMC doesn't get in.

Go ZAGS

Good question, and one I wondered a lot before monday night. I was thinking only a 50/50 chance before monday night. BUt in hind site, since both Sd ST and utah st are playing very well and are clearly at large teams now, then yes, I think the Gaels would have definately been in if the outcome were different ( by 20 points!!!) on monday night. .

good luck everyone. .

bartruff1
03-13-2010, 09:28 AM
Keeping the conference streak is in the books....and that is important and in the end, perhaps the most important accomplishment of the season...but the third part of the season starts next week and that is the only thing that matters now...

Thomas_Sutpen
03-13-2010, 09:30 AM
You are forgetting that of the wins you've listed none of the Zags wins on that list were at home, and you are missing a win at Memphis. Also, outside of the two bad losses, all the Zags losses were to tournament teams.

Yes. Neutral/Road wins count more.

The WCC tourney championship gets the auto-bid, but the regular season championship counts more in terms of seeding.

As far as the intangibles go, I think the committee will favor GU's attempt to schedule tough teams. As was mentioned in the original post, several of those traditionally good teams are having tough years, but the committee will recognize this, and reward the attempt.

Bottom line, GU is looking at a 6/7, SMC a 9/10.

Unlike many on this board, I am hoping SMC does well in the tourney. I enjoyed watching USD make a mini-run in 2008, and I will root for the Gaels (and Samhan!) this year. Of course, I hope the Zags do better than the Gaels.

MickMick
03-13-2010, 09:40 AM
Which team shows up?

The SMC team that faced USC or the team that won the WCC tourney final?

The Zag team that played Duke or the Zag team that swept Maui and SMC in conference play?

ANY given night.......

Brash talk for losing two out of three. Having said that, SMC is peaking at the right time. As far as resume goes, It wasn't more than a couple weeks ago when SMC was taking heat for their schedule. I suppose beating the Zags changed everything?

Zags held their end of the bargain by scheduling the teams that were supposed to be good. How they finished up is beyond their control.

john montana
03-13-2010, 09:50 AM
Who should be seeded higher? How about the team that won 2/3 of the head to head games? This debate about which is the better team was settled on the court. Fortunately we don't have to delve into a bunch of numbers and schedules to decide between smc and gu for seeding purposes. We played three times.

Ezag
03-13-2010, 09:53 AM
Hey you raise a good point. Match ups in the tourney can make the difference and it is entirely possible SMC could win a couple of games and we could get bounced in the first game but that said the reverse is true also.

It will come down to seeding and match ups. I hope we actually get a tougher draw since we seem to play better against better teams. Lower seed teams tend to give us trouble every year in the tourney and I am talking about the Western Kentucky, Winthrop type teams.

Just A Zag
03-13-2010, 10:10 AM
we will be seeded higher, and that's all that really matters. moving on...

BobZag
03-13-2010, 10:11 AM
Gonzaga is the highest 7 seed.
St. Mary's in the lowest 10 seed.

This is taken from Joe Lunardi's "Nitty Gritty" section. Depending on today and tomorrow, Gonzaga "could" jump one spot and be the lowest 6 seed while St. Mary's "could" slip one and be the highest 11 seed.

If SMC's resume' is better than GU's, then the folks who get paid to figure these things out will seed SMC ahead of GU.

But we'll all see what team is seeded where on Sunday by a committee that has no dog in this little debate. I doubt UCLA's AD Dan Geraurro(sp) really gives a hoot about either team.

U Zig, I Zag
03-13-2010, 10:30 AM
Yes. Neutral/Road wins count more.

This. Road and neutral court wins are huge. Also, I think the committee would be hard pressed to place SMC as a higher seed than GU given how GU beat them 2 out of 3 times this year. Once on the road (again with the road).

B-hamZag
03-13-2010, 10:48 AM
Its always hard to judge mid major teams and there RPI. Gonzaga is able to do something that other small schools have not been able to do. They have a great non conference schedule against BCS schools both at home, neutral and away. I don't think Saint Mary's would have won as many games as Gonzaga did in there schedule. Kenpom non conference schedule has gonzaga at 41. This is lower then the past.(not are fault just teams did not meet expectations) Last year it was 5 and the year before it was like 15. This year Saint Mary's is 107, San Diego St 81, and Utah St 177. The only reason Saint Mary's and San Diego St is kinda low is because the played other good mid major programs and thats hard to judge how good they are especially against the BCS.

I feel confident even without Arop Gonzaga can play with anyone in the country if they play to there potential. Those other teams including St. Mary's while they are good I don't think they could play with anyone in the country. Which to me says Gonzaga is the best team.

ZagNative
03-13-2010, 10:58 AM
The numbers really have been interesting to follow as the season wore down, and I was surprised at how much SMC's scheduling had helped them. Today ESPN's RPI calculator looks like this:

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_UkLNCxT74w4/S5vlBOqC9dI/AAAAAAAAUf8/z_3UdnslAzU/s512/Fullscreen%20capture%203132010%20103948%20AM.bmp.j pg
http://lh5.ggpht.com/_UkLNCxT74w4/S5vlBRoANjI/AAAAAAAAUgI/GouYibR9g5c/s512/Fullscreen%20capture%203132010%20104204%20AM.bmp.j pg

Our big-name opponents didn't help us as much as I would have hoped, but I still wouldn't trade our scheduling against St. Mary's, and as we know, RPI is only one factor the Committee considers in seeding.

U Zig, I Zag
03-13-2010, 11:06 AM
Not taking chances, going the cupcake route (hey UW!) and getting 'easy' wins does not trump a team taking the chances, playing a tough OOC schedule and getting some quality wins on the road - EVEN if the percieved value of that schedule is diminished some as the season goes on.

If the committee is semi-intelligent they see this.

BlueVoodoo07
03-13-2010, 11:38 AM
I really don't like the RPI crap at times.
Big Wins: (not counting the wins against each other)
Gonzaga: (RPI)
Wisconsin - 21
Cincinnati - 61
Illinois - 72

SMC
San Diego St - 24
Utah State - 26
NOrthEastern -74

I think all of the teams on this list that Gonzaga beat would beat any of the teams that SMC beat on this list.

MississppiZag
03-13-2010, 11:40 AM
St. Mary's best opponents are @ Utah State, @San Diego State, and neutral vs Northeastern. They only played 2 BCS team (USC and Oregon)

Gonzaga's played @Mich State, neutral vs Duke, neutral vs Wisconsin, neutral vs Cincinnati, Wake Forest, @Illinois, and @Memphis. Gonzaga has played 6 teams better than SMC's best opponent. Gonzaga played 9 BCS teams.

2-1 head-to-head.

9 BCS opponents against 2 for the Gaels.

Traveled much, much more.

I am pretty sure Gonzaga has played a better schedule.

P.S. How in the world is Utah State an at large team. Saint Mary's played a more grueling schedule than they did.

BlueVoodoo07
03-13-2010, 11:46 AM
2-1 head-to-head.
That say's it all on who is better.

Zagatak
03-13-2010, 11:54 AM
Gonzaga is the highest 7 seed.
St. Mary's in the lowest 10 seed.

This is taken from Joe Lunardi's "Nitty Gritty" section. Depending on today and tomorrow, Gonzaga "could" jump one spot and be the lowest 6 seed while St. Mary's "could" slip one and be the highest 11 seed.

If SMC's resume' is better than GU's, then the folks who get paid to figure these things out will seed SMC ahead of GU.

But we'll all see what team is seeded where on Sunday by a committee that has no dog in this little debate. I doubt UCLA's AD Dan Geraurro(sp) really gives a hoot about either team.

That is a perfect point about we could jump up and SMC could move down. And if Illinois can pull out the win over Ohio St... Man will that be huge for us.

Zagatak
03-13-2010, 12:01 PM
I spoke to soon..

LynetteG
03-13-2010, 12:24 PM
St. Mary's best opponents are @ Utah State, @San Diego State, and neutral vs Northeastern. They only played 2 BCS team (USC and Oregon)

Gonzaga's played @Mich State, neutral vs Duke, neutral vs Wisconsin, neutral vs Cincinnati, Wake Forest, @Illinois, and @Memphis. Gonzaga has played 6 teams better than SMC's best opponent. Gonzaga played 9 BCS teams.

2-1 head-to-head.

9 BCS opponents against 2 for the Gaels.

Traveled much, much more.

I am pretty sure Gonzaga has played a better schedule.

P.S. How in the world is Utah State an at large team. Saint Mary's played a more grueling schedule than they did.

What MZ said...

Zagatak
03-13-2010, 12:40 PM
BZ, can you post that "nitty gritty" for us non-insiders?

titopoet
03-13-2010, 01:44 PM
it will be seen tomorrow. SMC just better pray that it is not thought as higher and giving it a higher seed that would make it a 8 or 9. That would mean a close game in the first round followed by a blow out loss to a 1 seed. Better to be a 10 seed. History says that a 8 or 9 means a one weekend tour.

As GU, they will be a 6 or 7. Good position to get to the sweet sixteen.

As for argument of SMC having a better resume. If you were in that room, it may men something, but you not and SMC will be though as bottom half and GU top half of 65. Sorry, deal with reality.

Saxon_zag
03-13-2010, 02:04 PM
The fact that you can consider a win against northweastern as good as a win against illinois just tells you that some of these RPI numbers are comical.

Put the names aside and let's see whose the better team

Team A plays in a major conference, went 9-5 in the out of conference with wins over a couple ranked teams and went into conference play and was solid especially at the start, took some shots at the end but finished 5th in one of the top conferences (10-8) in the nation advancing and losing in overtime to a top 10 team in the semifinals of the tournament final record of 19-14 5-6 vs AP top 25

Team B plays in a solid mid-major conference, never faced a ranked opponent this year went 5-7 in out of conference play, conference play came around and they went 14-4 beating most of the teams they should and getting a nice win or 2 over the likes of old dominion and lost in their mediocore conference semifinals with a final record of 20-12 0-0 vs the ap top 25


RPI numbers suck and no St. Mary's isn't as good a team, nor deserving of a better seed than gonzaga no matter how you can skew, and pick and choose different numbers until it may look that way. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut.

killerbootsman
03-13-2010, 02:13 PM
nittty gritty
http://imgur.com/18pEP.jpg

Das Zagger
03-13-2010, 02:14 PM
St. Mary's best opponents are @ Utah State, @San Diego State, and neutral vs Northeastern. They only played 2 BCS team (USC and Oregon)

Gonzaga's played @Mich State, neutral vs Duke, neutral vs Wisconsin, neutral vs Cincinnati, Wake Forest, @Illinois, and @Memphis. Gonzaga has played 6 teams better than SMC's best opponent. Gonzaga played 9 BCS teams.

2-1 head-to-head.

9 BCS opponents against 2 for the Gaels.

Traveled much, much more.

I am pretty sure Gonzaga has played a better schedule.

P.S. How in the world is Utah State an at large team. Saint Mary's played a more grueling schedule than they did.

I see what you're saying here but the SOS numbers say the two teams are pretty much even.

gaelsfan
03-13-2010, 02:40 PM
RPI numbers suck and no St. Mary's isn't as good a team, nor deserving of a better seed than gonzaga no matter how you can skew, and pick and choose different numbers until it may look that way. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut.

skew and pick and choose huh? the only problem with that is that I decided to actually look at the statistics that the tournament committee is on record as using to determine the seeds. so who is picking and choosing?

ZagMania
03-13-2010, 03:18 PM
Again, I think their resumes are pretty close, but edge to Gonzaga but you can't just compare their top wins by RPI. A win at Illinois, a team likely to be in the tournament, in a sold out United Center in front of +20,000 fans is not equal to a win at home over NorthEastern.

You say your just looking at the statistics the committee uses, if that was the case you'd just have to look at their respective RPIs to determine who is better. However, this just isn't how it works. It is the reason that Ohio State has a RPI of 27 and is in strong consideration for a #1 seed. Would you honestly argue a win over Utah St. and San Diego State is considered as strong as a win over Ohio State as you are a win over Wisconsin?

gonwick
03-13-2010, 03:37 PM
Wonder how our SOS looks without CSB, a superfluous game played for the benefit of the seniors (or some of the other similar games)? Playing those games likely heavily skews the average.

I also agree that the committee will look at how teams schedule out of conference. It wasn't our fault that Oklahoma and Memphis (both very strong last year) are down this year. As recently as two weeks ago, St. Mary's was scrambling for an extra game, because they refused to participate in the Bracketbusters. I think when you look at the scheduling efforts of both teams, it's hard to say that SMC did much to deserve a higher seed. Hopefully next year they'll man up and play some neutral site games or whatever it takes so this will no longer be an issue, and both teams can win some out of conference respect, instead of this year where a loss to SMC drags us down like an anchor. Maybe that's the combined weight of LMU, SF, and SMC, but you get the gist.

JAGzag
03-13-2010, 03:52 PM
Agreed.

What bothers me most is that we're even having this conversation. I know the numbers exist, but GU goes out year in, year out and schedules ANYONE, usually on the road and does pretty well. We've WORKED to make a name for ourselves under the "anyone, anywhere" attitude.

SMC on the other hand, doesn't have that mentality and believes they deserve home-and-home deals - they haven't paid their dues, taken their lumps and taken the chances we have.

I like SMC but overall, they are nowhere close to where GU is in terms of marketability, recruits, TV contracts - everything we've earned.

Oh, one more thing. SMC, please stop calling yourselves "WCC champs," that title is ours - after two games, you are the WCC tourney champs. Big difference.

Das Zagger
03-13-2010, 04:15 PM
Oh, one more thing. SMC, please stop calling yourselves "WCC champs," that title is ours - after two games, you are the WCC tourney champs. Big difference.

The West Coast Conference disagrees with you.

JAGzag
03-13-2010, 04:28 PM
The West Coast Conference disagrees with you.

Really? So the previous 14 games were for what, seeding?

willandi
03-13-2010, 04:44 PM
One more thing to consider, when naming the USF and LMU losses as bad is, until St Mary's has made the NCAA for 11 straight years and won the conference, either outright or tied, for an equal number of years, and has had the other WCC teams look at the Zags (SMU) games as THE building block for next season and having a target painted on them, there is no way to compare the two. Even the Gaels painted the target on the Zags, three times, and were finally able to win one. They are apples and oranges. The perception is that the Zags played bigger name schools at more road/neutral sites, and until St mary's does the same, their schedule will not be considered as tough. It is the eye test.

That being said, I hope that the Gaels represent the WCC well in the tourney, shoot lights out from three and win a few. I hope we meet again this season.

Das Zagger
03-13-2010, 04:44 PM
Really? So the previous 14 games were for what, seeding?

Hi there.

The WCC recognizes the winner of the post-season tournament as the conference champion and award it the league's automatic bid to the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

ZagNative
03-13-2010, 04:59 PM
Agreed.

What bothers me most is that we're even having this conversation. I know the numbers exist, but GU goes out year in, year out and schedules ANYONE, usually on the road and does pretty well. We've WORKED to make a name for ourselves under the "anyone, anywhere" attitude.

SMC on the other hand, doesn't have that mentality and believes they deserve home-and-home deals - they haven't paid their dues, taken their lumps and taken the chances we have.

I like SMC but overall, they are nowhere close to where GU is in terms of marketability, recruits, TV contracts - everything we've earned.

Oh, one more thing. SMC, please stop calling yourselves "WCC champs," that title is ours - after two games, you are the WCC tourney champs. Big difference.My sentiments exactly.

FieldHouseFishHouse
03-13-2010, 05:04 PM
Granted I am a Gaels fan, but when i look at the tourny resume of the two teams I can't come up with another conclusion than they have near identical tourny resumes and if any thing I give an edge to St. Marys. The common wisdom on this board is that Gonzaga is a 6 or 7 seed and the Gaels are a 9,10, or 11 seed clearly isn't supported by the facts. Please follow along. The tournament committee considers the following 5 factors. 1) RPI, 2) Strength of schedule, 3) Good wins, 4) bad losses 5) last 10 games.

Lets look at the data.
RPI - As of this morning college RPI which I think most would agree is the RPI "bible has SMC as 36 and Gonzaga as 38. Edge St. Mary's.

SOS - Again using collegerpi Gonzaga's rank of SOS is 115 and SMC is 120. Edge gonzaga but clearly the SOS is much closer than most on this board seems to think. The common wisdom before the WCC final is that SMC just didn't deserve at large contention because the OOC schedule was so darn week. I submit that that is total bias. Gonzaga may have played larger "name" teams, and in most years that would translate into better schedule, but this year the teams that gonzaga beat, often didn't live up to historic expectations, and we can't give credit to gonzaga losing to big name teams such as Duke. AS you will see below, our good wins were very comparable.

Big Wins: (not counting the wins against each other)
Gonzaga: (RPI)
Wisconsin - 21
Cincinnati - 61
Illinois - 72

SMC
San Diego St - 24
Utah State - 26
NOrthEastern -74

Agreed that Gonzaga clearly beat the bigger name Teams, but if you are going to give any credit to RPI, SMC's big wins are clearly better. WE beat two top 30 teams to only one for gonzaga.

I Have to give the edge to SMC again.

Bad Losses
Gonzaga
San Francisco - 207
LMU - 175

SMC
USC 110
Portland - 79

Again, it seems to me we have to give the edge to St. mary's.

Last 10 games: Both Gonzaga and SMC were 8-2 in the last 10 games. This seems like it is a push.

Head to head: Gonzaga beat SMC 2 of 3 games. So even though we won the biggest of the games I will give the edge to Gonzaga.

One intangible which is hard to define, but clearly worked against st. mary's last year is the health of the players. The committee has gone on record saying they consider this. With Manny being out, does that change anything for gonzaga? probably not, but it is worth putting out there. So. . in conclusion.

RPI - Edge St. mary's
Strength of Schedule - Edge gonzaga
Best Win's - Edge St. Mary's
Bad loses - Edge St. Mary's
Last 10 - Push
head to head - Edge Gonzaga
intangible - Possible negative for gonzaga - (but probably not)

so, in review, gonzaga is clearly the bigger name basketball program. Their schedule is clearly against bigger name programs. BUt if you look at the numbers from this year, I submit to you that SMC actually has a better tourny resume than gonzaga when we look at this years results and don't consider historic reputations. So I guess we can see how much the committee is impartial or takes name recognition into account.
Would love to hear some real analysis of this as to where any zags fan thinks I went wrong. But the idea that gonzaga's resume is clearly supperior than the gaels isn't supported by the numbers.
I think both teams should be in the 7 or 8 range. . and of course you know which one I think should be the 7 and which the 8


You do a good job developing your argument, but you show quite a bit of bias. You essentially base your entire evaluation on RPI. You even give SOS its own paragraph, which is 75% of the RPI calculation anyway. SMC is a good team, and GU's 2 wins over SMC should be included in the 'good wins" section, along with Memphis and maybe the 2 wins over Portland. Our win over Wisconsin is a true Marquee win (and on a neutral floor). SMC has not beaten a team that will be a single digit seed (except GU).
Every major factor that you left out of your evaluation GU takes the advantage: "good wins" should be edge UG, road/neutral record should be edge GU, beating tournament caliber teams is also a big factor (GU beat 5: Wisconsin, Illinois, SMC*2 and Memphis). SMC beat 3, SDSU, Utah St, and GU). Good losses (top 50 RPI) should also be a factor. 4/6 ir of Gu's losses are "good" (Duke, Wake, SMC, Mich St). For SMC its 3/5 (GU, GU, Vandy).

I say these several reasons you zealously overlooked give GU the edge by about 2 seeds.

gaelsfan
03-13-2010, 06:12 PM
You do a good job developing your argument, but you show quite a bit of bias. You essentially base your entire evaluation on RPI. You even give SOS its own paragraph, which is 75% of the RPI calculation anyway. SMC is a good team, and GU's 2 wins over SMC should be included in the 'good wins" section, along with Memphis and maybe the 2 wins over Portland. Our win over Wisconsin is a true Marquee win (and on a neutral floor). SMC has not beaten a team that will be a single digit seed (except GU).
Every major factor that you left out of your evaluation GU takes the advantage: "good wins" should be edge UG, road/neutral record should be edge GU, beating tournament caliber teams is also a big factor (GU beat 5: Wisconsin, Illinois, SMC*2 and Memphis). SMC beat 3, SDSU, Utah St, and GU). Good losses (top 50 RPI) should also be a factor. 4/6 ir of Gu's losses are "good" (Duke, Wake, SMC, Mich St). For SMC its 3/5 (GU, GU, Vandy).

I say these several reasons you zealously overlooked give GU the edge by about 2 seeds.

I will basically agree with you on most of your points. Firstly, of course I am biased toward SMC. .I basically started my original post saying that, and I am will to cede that, but of course all the other Zags posters need to realize that in there posts as well. I still am not going to give up on the "good wins" catagory as SD st just won the mountain west and will jump to a top 25 RPI. Memphis, though in name sounds great, isn't going to make the tourny this year so using your own criteria, it is tough to say that is a good win. Wisconsin is no doubt a marquee win, but I must point out we KILLED san diego st when we beat them earlier this year and we broke like a 30 some odd home win streak when we beat the aggies of utah state at there place. In name gonzagas wins are better, using the stats that the NCAA uses, not so much. Might be true that the zags were better on the road, but the gaels only had 3 road/neutral losses so it would be hard to be much better than the gaels.
Tournament quality wins may be closer to a push than you think. Firstly, memphis likely isn't going to make it. So GU's number is down to four. Further, if NEw mexico state beats utah state starting right now, the Gaels number is up to four. SO again, pretty close to a push.
Your last point. . quality losses. This one I think is non sense. You don't get any credit for losing to good teams. That will help your strength of schedule, but anyone can lose to Duke, no NCAA points are awarded because of it.
Bottom line, the major point I was trying to make is that this year it is a lot closer than most on this board were giving us credit for. I still think it is pretty much a dead heat, and my fan-dom pushes it in the way of the gaels.
One last point. . quotes such as this. .


Agreed.

What bothers me most is that we're even having this conversation. I know the numbers exist, but GU goes out year in, year out and schedules ANYONE, usually on the road and does pretty well. We've WORKED to make a name for ourselves under the "anyone, anywhere" attitude.

SMC on the other hand, doesn't have that mentality and believes they deserve home-and-home deals - they haven't paid their dues, taken their lumps and taken the chances we have.

I like SMC but overall, they are nowhere close to where GU is in terms of marketability, recruits, TV contracts - everything we've earned.

Oh, one more thing. SMC, please stop calling yourselves "WCC champs," that title is ours - after two games, you are the WCC tourney champs. Big difference.

This quote COMPLETELY misses the point. . no where have I ever said or implied that SMC is anywhere close to the tradition or marketability or due paying or any of that of GU. Of course we are not.. we want what you have.

Having said that, none of that matters when it comes to the tournament resume THIS YEAR.

And one more time I submit to you that THIS YEAR.. SMC and gonzagas tourny resumes are VERY comparable and only a few of you are willing to concede that. comparable. . but alas. . i am giving the tie breaker.. (my love for the gaels). . to SMC

ZagLawGrad
03-13-2010, 06:17 PM
Why argue the nooks and crannies? Head-to-head speaks volumes. End of story.

gaelsfan
03-13-2010, 06:20 PM
Why argue the nooks and crannies? Head-to-head speaks volumes. End of story.

Why argue nooks and crannies? WCC tournament speaks volumes. End of story.

Just A Zag
03-13-2010, 06:26 PM
Why argue nooks and crannies? WCC tournament speaks volumes. End of story.

this reminds me of when I was 7 years old and I would always have to have the last punch vs. my 11 year old brother. you're the 7 year old, who wasn't quite as strong as the 11 year old, but you tried plenty hard. :D

ZagLawGrad
03-13-2010, 06:29 PM
Why argue nooks and crannies? WCC tournament speaks volumes. End of story.

Well, one thing for sure---all colleges have/had some smart kids and some dumb kids. Your math skills put you in the latter. Good luck in the tourney.

HOOTER
03-13-2010, 06:29 PM
This quote COMPLETELY misses the point. . no where have I ever said or implied that SMC is anywhere close to the tradition or marketability or due paying or any of that of GU. Of course we are not.. we want what you have.

Having said that, none of that matters when it comes to the tournament resume THIS YEAR.


I'd have to disagree. Although they may or may not admit it, I'd imagine the selection committee treats national power's like Gonzaga a little different because...well, they're Gonzaga. Saint Mary's, like Gonzaga, put together a decent resume this season. Gonzaga is Gonzaga and Saint Mary's is Saint Mary's, which is why Gonzaga will likely be seeded a bit higher. Like it or not, that's just the way it is. String together as many successful seasons as the Zags have and Saint Mary's will enjoy the same type of notoriety.

gaelsfan
03-13-2010, 06:33 PM
I'd have to disagree. Although they may or may not admit it, I'd imagine the selection committee treats national power's like Gonzaga a little different because...well, they're Gonzaga. Saint Mary's, like Gonzaga, put together a decent resume this season. Gonzaga is Gonzaga and Saint Mary's is Saint Mary's, which is why Gonzaga will likely be seeded a bit higher. Like it or not, that's just the way it is. String together as many successful seasons as the Zags have and Saint Mary's will enjoy the same type of notoriety.

I agree, but I don't have to be happy about it!

ZaggyZaggerson
03-13-2010, 07:35 PM
Are all Gaels high?

HOOTER
03-13-2010, 08:01 PM
Are all Gaels high?

Nah, they just want what Gonzaga has. The problem is, they want it now. Gonzaga has earned their spot in the national scene with years of hard work and dedication. Gaels fans are jealous and will say just about anything to lift their team to Gonzaga's level. I don't blame them for wishing success on their team. You know what they so though, wish in one hand and....well, you know the rest. The Gaels can certainly get there someday though, all they need is just a little patience. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEzuC5UoM8g)

sircreate
03-13-2010, 08:06 PM
Are all Gaels high?

What? the Gaels have a better rpi, similar SoS and one fan asks politely btw, why Gonzaga has a 3-4 higher seed on most brackets?

I agree the Zags will more then likely be a 7 seed, but with the wins by SDSU and Utah State I can see SMC maybe getting a 9.. not like you'd want to be a 9

webspinnre
03-13-2010, 08:16 PM
The biggest flaw in your argument is that you're using RPI as the primary way to determine how good a team is. RPI is merely one useful factor in evaluating a team. It is nowhere close to being everything there is.

john montana
03-13-2010, 08:21 PM
So if the Selection comittee is sitting there debating seeds and they are forced to compare gu and smc do you think they will argue over computer numbers or do something crazy like see which team actually beat the other team 2 out of three times?

I just don't get this discussion. Yes, on paper the resumes look similar but gu won 2/3 games! It isn't like we are comparing teams that never play each other. Just check the season series and move on.

MickMick
03-13-2010, 08:37 PM
Get to a sweet sixteen before feeling any sense of entitlement.

I truly wish you success.

Here is what you can expect:

A target on your back. Everyones "best shot".

You can dominate a team year after year, but one slip and your demise is "imminent".

Envious, jealous WCC fans tearing your program apart from every conceivable angle. They will be sure to provide a link to every "two bit" web site that concurs to reinforce the argument.

The fans of the local PAC 10 team reminding you at every opportunity that you play in a "crappy conference".

Four star recruits listing you as a possible destination with no intentions other than building a resume for another school.

No matter how many wins your coach piles up you can be sure that:
a) It isn't good enough because he hasn't won a national championship
b) He is going to leave for a better position at the first opportunity
c) He can have a higher winning percentage than Roy Williams, but certainly isn't one of the top coaches in the country.

A new wave of bandwagon "fans" that won't settle for anything less than winning the big dance. Demanding the program is overhauled after every loss and suggesting that perhaps the coach should move on.

And finally,

Some fan of another team that you have owned for years, coming on to your message board, and declaring after winning one of three games for the season, that perhaps their tournament resume is better than yours.

Success comes with a price. I wish you success.

MDABE80
03-13-2010, 08:47 PM
1. If the draw is easy, I can see St Marys going Swt 16.
2. I can say the identical thing about GU.

I wonder though...if GU played GU for a 4th time this year, would GU win or would we see a replay of Las Vegas? This is a key question. I don't know the answer....we've been well underperforming in this past 3 weeks. The reasons are multiple and mostly unknown right now. Suffice it to say that many teams are getting much better and we aren't....sad to say. Who would win in a fourth game? Not sure any more.....SMC is peaking and healthy....

Therunner
03-13-2010, 08:50 PM
Get to a sweet sixteen before feeling any sense of entitlement.

I truly wish you success.

Here is what you can expect:

A target on your back. Everyones "best shot".

You can dominate a team year after year, but one slip and your demise is "imminent".

Envious, jealous WCC fans tearing your program apart from every conceivable angle. They will be sure to provide a link to every "two bit" web site that concurs to reinforce the argument.

The fans of the local PAC 10 team reminding you at every opportunity that you play in a "crappy conference".

Four star recruits listing you as a possible destination with no intentions other than building a resume for another school.

No matter how many wins your coach piles up you can be sure that:
a) It isn't good enough because he hasn't won a national championship
b) He is going to leave for a better position at the first opportunity
c) He can have a higher winning percentage than Roy Williams, but certainly isn't one of the top coaches in the country.

A new wave of bandwagon "fans" that won't settle for anything less than winning the big dance. Demanding the program is overhauled after every loss and suggesting that perhaps the coach should move on.

And finally,

Some fan of another team that you have owned for years, coming on to your message board, and declaring after winning one of three games for the season, that perhaps their tournament resume is better than yours.

Success comes with a price. I wish you success.

Well said. Gaelsfan & Gaels' fans need to read this post. So true...

LongIslandZagFan
03-13-2010, 09:32 PM
What? the Gaels have a better rpi, similar SoS and one fan asks politely btw, why Gonzaga has a 3-4 higher seed on most brackets?

I agree the Zags will more then likely be a 7 seed, but with the wins by SDSU and Utah State I can see SMC maybe getting a 9.. not like you'd want to be a 9

Look at the OOC SOS and you will find your answer... Zags are rock solid in that category (43), Gaels not so much (117). THAT is the difference between a bubble team and a lock.

BavarianZag
03-13-2010, 10:25 PM
Lets look at the data.
RPI - As of this morning college RPI which I think most would agree is the RPI "bible has SMC as 36 and Gonzaga as 38. Edge St. Mary's.

SOS - Again using collegerpi Gonzaga's rank of SOS is 115 and SMC is 120. Edge gonzaga but clearly the SOS is much closer than most on this board seems to think. The common wisdom before the WCC final is that SMC just didn't deserve at large contention because the OOC schedule was so darn week. I submit that that is total bias. Gonzaga may have played larger "name" teams, and in most years that would translate into better schedule, but this year the teams that gonzaga beat, often didn't live up to historic expectations, and we can't give credit to gonzaga losing to big name teams such as Duke. AS you will see below, our good wins were very comparable.

Big Wins: (not counting the wins against each other)
Gonzaga: (RPI)
Wisconsin - 21
Cincinnati - 61
Illinois - 72

SMC
San Diego St - 24
Utah State - 26
NOrthEastern -74

Agreed that Gonzaga clearly beat the bigger name Teams, but if you are going to give any credit to RPI, SMC's big wins are clearly better. WE beat two top 30 teams to only one for gonzaga.

I Have to give the edge to SMC again.

Bad Losses
Gonzaga
San Francisco - 207
LMU - 175

SMC
USC 110
Portland - 79

Again, it seems to me we have to give the edge to St. mary's.

Last 10 games: Both Gonzaga and SMC were 8-2 in the last 10 games. This seems like it is a push.

Head to head: Gonzaga beat SMC 2 of 3 games. So even though we won the biggest of the games I will give the edge to Gonzaga.

One intangible which is hard to define, but clearly worked against st. mary's last year is the health of the players. The committee has gone on record saying they consider this. With Manny being out, does that change anything for gonzaga? probably not, but it is worth putting out there. So. . in conclusion.

RPI - Edge St. mary's
Strength of Schedule - Edge gonzaga
Best Win's - Edge St. Mary's
Bad loses - Edge St. Mary's
Last 10 - Push
head to head - Edge Gonzaga
intangible - Possible negative for gonzaga - (but probably not)


the thing about data is it can be manipulated to tell any story you want (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017393/climategate-the-final-nail-in-the-coffin-of-anthropogenic-global-warming/)

sircreate
03-13-2010, 10:27 PM
Look at the OOC SOS and you will find your answer... Zags are rock solid in that category (43), Gaels not so much (117). THAT is the difference between a bubble team and a lock.

According to the pic ZagNative I think linked from the ESPN RPI.

Gonzaga non-conf SOS=77

St Mary's non conf SOS=83

So where exactly is Zags 43 and the Gaels 117 listed?

Edit:I just checked.. St Mary's non-conf SOS is now 81

WallaWallaZag
03-13-2010, 11:24 PM
Why argue nooks and crannies? WCC tournament speaks volumes. End of story.

actually, wcc tournament doesn't speak at as loud a volume as you might think, the reason being...lock teams are usually not penalized in seeding terms for losing in their conference tournaments, unless it is in the first round (or a continuation of a recent issue/trend, ie purdue). wanna bet against syracuse still being a one seed?

the explanation is simple, bubble teams and the other teams whose only shot of making it into the dance is to win their conference tournaments are playing as if their life depended on it, because it does (st.mary's falls into this category). no reasonable smc fan would argue against the fact that the gaels had a heck of a lot more at stake than the zags.

the only incentive for lock teams is to try and improve their seeding, ie gonzaga (the zags probably wouldn't have improved their seeding by winning the wcc, unlike winning a bcs league tournament, but the zags were playing to hold their seed and have the chance to play in spokane). st.mary's beating the zags is similar to unlv and sdst playing in the title game instead of byu and new mexico (two bubble teams beating two locks). byu and new mexico won't be penalized more than a couple spots, if at all...similar to the zags, though the margin of defeat vs. smc will hurt more (dropping a couple spots on the s-curve doesn't even necessarily cost a team a seed line). sorry, but regular season conference standings are more meaningful than conference tournament results, except of course for bubble teams.

webspinnre
03-13-2010, 11:26 PM
He's looking at KenPom:

http://kenpom.com/rate.php?s=NCSOSPythag

That's the problem, there's so many different variations of ways to calculate these numbers, that they're useful, but can't possibly the the entire way you evaluate a team. I can't think of anyone who would go through game by game in the two non-conference schedules and say that they're remotely similar.

sircreate
03-14-2010, 12:00 AM
Seriously, how can 2 different places have such a vastly different ranking?

I mean ESPN has them witin 4 places.. but Kenpom has them 70 ranks apart.

bartruff1
03-14-2010, 03:58 AM
of St Mary's and thought they played a great game in Vegas and wished them well in the tourney...but since this thread....well....not so much...

CB4
03-14-2010, 09:29 AM
Wait til the draw comes out, whoever is seeded higher is the better team. I really don't think SMC will be higher than GU.

bartruff1
03-14-2010, 09:32 AM
Perhaps the Tourney results will be the best judge...

ZagMania
03-14-2010, 09:57 AM
gaelsfan, please address this:



You say your just looking at the statistics the committee uses, if that was the case you'd just have to look at their respective RPIs to determine who is better. However, this just isn't how it works. It is the reason that Ohio State has a RPI of 27 and is in strong consideration for a #1 seed. Would you honestly argue a win over Utah St. and San Diego State is considered as strong as a win over Ohio State as you are a win over Wisconsin?

TexasZagFan
03-14-2010, 10:36 AM
Get to a sweet sixteen before feeling any sense of entitlement.

I truly wish you success.

Here is what you can expect:

A target on your back. Everyones "best shot".

You can dominate a team year after year, but one slip and your demise is "imminent".

Envious, jealous WCC fans tearing your program apart from every conceivable angle. They will be sure to provide a link to every "two bit" web site that concurs to reinforce the argument.

The fans of the local PAC 10 team reminding you at every opportunity that you play in a "crappy conference".

Four star recruits listing you as a possible destination with no intentions other than building a resume for another school.

No matter how many wins your coach piles up you can be sure that:
a) It isn't good enough because he hasn't won a national championship
b) He is going to leave for a better position at the first opportunity
c) He can have a higher winning percentage than Roy Williams, but certainly isn't one of the top coaches in the country.

A new wave of bandwagon "fans" that won't settle for anything less than winning the big dance. Demanding the program is overhauled after every loss and suggesting that perhaps the coach should move on.

And finally,

Some fan of another team that you have owned for years, coming on to your message board, and declaring after winning one of three games for the season, that perhaps their tournament resume is better than yours.

Success comes with a price. I wish you success.

Well said Mick.

When SMC can draw more than 500 at LMU or 2000 at USF, and the fans rush the court wearing their "Beat SMC" shirts, then Gaels fans can start talking scat.

Until then, all I have to say is: 10 in a row, and 19-4 over SMC. Congrats on your victory in the WCC tournament, but quit letting it go to your head.

BlueVoodoo07
03-14-2010, 10:37 AM
Hey when was the last time SMC won a NCAA tourny game?

Ezag
03-14-2010, 11:31 AM
This argument cannot be won by either side unless we met in the dance

GoZags
03-14-2010, 11:49 AM
Hey when was the last time SMC won a NCAA tourny game?

Their one and only NCAA tourney win (going into this year's dance) came in '59 v Idaho.

SFZAG95
03-14-2010, 11:55 AM
Don't forget Gonzaga won most of those good wins on the road or nuetral court...where most of Saint Mary's good wins were at home...the commitee looks at that as well....and there is winning your conference...not necessarily the conference tournament...

BlueVoodoo07
03-14-2010, 11:58 AM
Their one and only NCAA tourney win (going into this year's dance) came in '59 v Idaho.
So if they finally win a game in the Madness, do you think Omar will count that as his biggest win of his career, or would he say beating Gonzaga was. If he says beating Gonzaga over winning a NCAA tourny game for his school for the first time since 59 it speaks volumes for what they think of the Zags. I really don't think most Gonzaga players would put a win over SMC over winning one in March.

john montana
03-14-2010, 01:46 PM
This argument cannot be won by either side unless we met in the dance

2/3 this season. The argument has been decided unless we meet in the tournament and even than at best it turns into a coinflip arguement for smc. We would either be evenly split or gu would be up three to one. I don't understand the idea of discounting the actual head to head games.

McZag
03-14-2010, 06:24 PM
Pardon me if this was mentioned earlier in this thread but:

What has SMC been ranked all year?

If SMC has better wins and fewer bad losses, why were they a bubble team?

Why did SMC need the automatic to make the tournament?

If SMC losses in Vegas they play in the Not In Tournament. That's not arguable.

SMC won fair and square. Take your bid, get your seed and Do Something with it!

SunDevilGolfZag
03-14-2010, 07:02 PM
I guess the Committee gave us the resume answer, making this kind a worthless thread by a Gael troll -- but best of luck in the tourney because if you win the whole conference gets more money! ;)

rijman
03-14-2010, 08:07 PM
but I must point out we KILLED san diego st when we beat them earlier this year

Let's be honest, SMC didn't beat the current SDSU team, they beat them early when they were suffering from injuries. SMC lucks out big time that SDSU since got healthy and played great at the end of the season. SDSU would be a tough matchup now.

SMC is a good team and the ESPN analysts are talking them up. I'll be rooting for them in the NCAA tourney.

gamagin
03-14-2010, 08:15 PM
please move this thread of the MBB.

We have a game to plan.

Thanks. Best to SMC in the dance.