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View Full Version : RPI dropped to 37 with the "win"



23dpg
03-03-2010, 08:59 AM
Another reason the RPI is overvalued. According to ESPN's daily RPI, Gonzaga dropped 8 spots by winning.

BobZag
03-03-2010, 09:04 AM
Expected.

I hope the staff considers a D2 or NAIA opponant for Senior Night from now on. Save Augustana for Senior Night.

My 2 pesos.

Pleasant Peninsula
03-03-2010, 09:09 AM
I hope the staff considers a D2 or NAIA opponant for Senior Night from now on. Save Augustana for Senior Night.

Why? Do you really think the drop in RPI is going to affect their seed? I don't believe it will.

23dpg
03-03-2010, 09:13 AM
It does play a part. Put it this way, it doesn't help.

Pleasant Peninsula
03-03-2010, 09:22 AM
The staff must feel otherwise, or they wouldn't have scheduled these kinds of games two years in a row. I think they know that it won't "hurt" them seeding wise, and they feel that it will help them "tune up" for the tournament. I agree with the former, and am agnostic about the latter. I don't know if it is necessary or not, but I don't think it hurts them at all.

BobZag
03-03-2010, 09:26 AM
Absolutely it will.

Look up the RPIs of Mississippi Valley State, IPFW, Eastern Washington along with some of our WCC brothers. The last thing needed is CS-Bakersfield added to that woeful list. Play a non-D1 team that's every bit as good as CSUB and not affect RPI. It also knocks down the SOS.

Absolutely affects seeding. No question.

Pleasant Peninsula
03-03-2010, 10:12 AM
So, Bob: what seed do you think Gonzaga would have gotten if they hadn't played this game? What seed do you think they'll get since they did?

Do you really think the committee looks at raw RPI numbers enough that it would drop them a seed? Or even drop them a slot on the S-curve?

From everything the committee has said in the past ten or 15 years regarding RPI, is that it is used as a tool to group teams. So they'll look at record versus top 50, 100, 200 teams, etc. What they don't do, if my understanding is correct, is say "oh, Gonzaga is ranked 38th in the RPI, so they obviously can't be higher than a 7 seed in the tournament; if they hadn't played CS Bakersfield last week, they could have been a 5 seed."

I've seen no evidence that the committee operates this way. What is important is that you have marquee victories (Gonzaga does, but not as many as we might have hoped at the beginning of the year, and THAT will affect their seeding) and bad losses (which Gonzaga has, and THAT will affect their seeding), but playing a team so bad that it drops your RPI by 8 spots is not going to be important. Not at all. RPI just isn't used that way, in my opinion.

U Zig, I Zag
03-03-2010, 10:15 AM
I like to see the seniors get a win but have wondered if the game does anything for a team as a whole. Never doubted it didn't help with the computers.

We basically give PT, at the end of the year, to guys that probably wouldn't get it otherwise. Especially in the tourney(s).

As a fan I enjoy seeing the new guys in action, but the W on the left side of the column feels hollow.

I suppose we are seeing the last of these type of games, BZ?

ZagNative
03-03-2010, 10:20 AM
Absolutely it will.

Look up the RPIs of Mississippi Valley State, IPFW, Eastern Washington along with some of our WCC brothers. The last thing needed is CS-Bakersfield added to that woeful list. Play a non-D1 team that's every bit as good as CSUB and not affect RPI. It also knocks down the SOS.

Absolutely affects seeding. No question.The following screen from bbstate.com graphically shows the RPI's of the teams we've played, from the sublime to the ridiculous.

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_UkLNCxT74w4/S461PxSm6iI/AAAAAAAAOj8/o3L8kcSCPaQ/Strength%20of%20Schedule.jpg

(If it's too tiny, Control + to enlarge, Control - to reduce)

RPI for Cal State Bakersfield is 321 out of 347 Division I teams.

Martin Centre Mad Man
03-03-2010, 10:22 AM
The Zags' computer profile looks like that of a 7-11 seed. They have some good wins, but only one really good win (Wisconsin). They have two horrendous losses. The RPI of 39 normally puts a team in the 7-11 range.

If St. Mary's falls out of the RPI Top 50 (a very real possibility, especially if they lose to Portland in the WCC semi-finals), the Zags' profile looks even thinner with just one other Top 50 RPI win.

Pleasant Peninsula
03-03-2010, 10:29 AM
The Zags' computer profile looks like that of a 7-11 seed.

Yes, their raw RPI profile indicates that they'll be a 7-10 seed, but if they win out, they'll be a 4-6 seed.

So exactly how much does the committee use raw RPI numbers?

Not much.

I realize I could be wrong on this, but I'm basing my assumptions on years of following college basketball. The Zags are almost always seeded higher than their RPI would indicate.

zag67
03-03-2010, 10:37 AM
I like having the game. I do not think that it hurts us that badly. I do think that an NAIA or D-2 team would possilby be better an not affect the RPI, but I do think that this game is important to the team. I would not like to have the seniors not be able to play because it is a league game that we must win. I also think that it is fun to see the players of the future gand the walkons get time and game experience. It also allows us to show our appreciation to those that have practiced all year and have had very little exposure. I therefore say that the coaching staff have done a great job of doing this at a time when the players need something to break up an 8 day layoff.

titopoet
03-03-2010, 10:47 AM
RPI is not a solid rock but a matrix. The drop in RPI had more to do with a slew of losses by some of GU other opponents. Cincy lost and is on a bad losing stretch as is Illinois. Oklahoma continues to fall. WSU, Wake, Memphis all had bad losses recently. If these teams had not faltered, our RPI would be higher. If we played a D2 team, we would have still taken a major tumble.

229SintoZag
03-03-2010, 11:06 AM
Here's a better suggestion:

Drop this whole concept of a "Senior Night" cupcake game altogether and finish the season like we are supposed to with a WCC opponent.

That way, we don't have to play a Bakersfield, and see our RPI (and probably our NCAA tournament seed) drop precipitously just so the P-Maags and Sorensens of our program can get four minutes of feel-good time at the beginning of their last game.

Plus, we could use the "slot" to add another legitimate OOC opponent in November or December, thus raising our RPI. And we could even entertain the entirely quaint, totally absurd, patently ridiculous notion of giving the season ticket holders who pay the freight a game that might be interesting, to boot.

Everybody wins if we abandon this type of game.

zagzilla
03-03-2010, 11:11 AM
We don't have any control over how our previous opponents (and their opponents) perform but we do control who we play.

Playing a strong D2 team or one of the worst D1 teams makes little difference in terms of tuning up for the WCC tourney but if it even saves us a single place on the seeding line or S curve, we should do it.

We've raised the point about whether we would be better off with a 6 vs a 4 or 5 seed in terms of S16 match ups so it may work out for us either way in this case.

Go Zags

ZZ

ID ZAGFAN
03-03-2010, 11:13 AM
I like having the game. I do not think that it hurts us that badly. I do think that an NAIA or D-2 team would possilby be better an not affect the RPI, but I do think that this game is important to the team. I would not like to have the seniors not be able to play because it is a league game that we must win. I also think that it is fun to see the players of the future gand the walkons get time and game experience. It also allows us to show our appreciation to those that have practiced all year and have had very little exposure. I therefore say that the coaching staff have done a great job of doing this at a time when the players need something to break up an 8 day layoff.


I agree completely. I like this game and was even willing to pay a premium price to see it.

I do have a question. I noticed in today's S-R that CS-Bakersfield will not be a full-fledged D1 school until next year--so why does it affect our RPI?

ID ZAGFAN

Pleasant Peninsula
03-03-2010, 11:14 AM
Playing a strong D2 team or one of the worst D1 teams makes little difference in terms of tuning up for the WCC tourney but if it even saves us a single place on the seeding line or S curve, we should do it.

Do you really think one of the shrewdest coaching staffs in the nation would schedule a game like that, not once, but twice, if they really thought it would affect their seeding line or S curve? Of course not. They obviously don't think that it will; so why do so many fans remain convinced that the opposite is true?

229SintoZag
03-03-2010, 11:21 AM
Do you really think one of the shrewdest coaching staffs in the nation would schedule a game like that, not once, but twice, if they really thought it would affect their seeding line or S curve? Of course not. They obviously don't think that it will; so why do so many fans remain convinced that the opposite is true?

I disagree. They either don't think it will affect the seed line much, they don't appreciate the extent to which it will, or they simply don't care.

Most years, it would not matter if this "win" bumped us from a 4 to a 5, or from a 5 to a 6.

But some year or another, we may lose the WCC tournament and be a bubble team, and a loss like this could mean we go from one of the "last four in" to one of the "first four out."

This year, there is a decent chance that if we slip from 16 to 17, say, on the S curve because of our 8 point RPI drop, that will mean we go from Spokane to San Jose or somewhere else.

Nobody, not even the shrewdest coaches, has a crystal ball that can foresee all of this back when schedules are set.

This game is a joke and a waste of a spot on our home schedule and it should be canceled in future years and used appropriately for a team of Gonzaga's stature.

zag67
03-03-2010, 11:28 AM
So 229, if you do not do something like this then you have 8 days with no games. This allows the team to get stale and immediately come out against a team thaqt had just played. Practice helps some, but this does allow the kids to have some fun and not cause injuries in practice (where the players are playing hard against each other) or come out for your first game on Saturday having not played in a long time. Remember that one of the reasons that Few came up with this is to have them play in "game" conditions (with refs). If I remember right, they would run into problems when playing a team that had just played one or two playin games. If the WCC were to have 1 play 8, 2/7, 3/6, and 4/5 as the tourmanent schedule, then you would not see a game like this.

Pleasant Peninsula
03-03-2010, 11:38 AM
I disagree. They either don't think it will affect the seed line much, they don't appreciate the extent to which it will, or they simply don't care.

Of course they care. Maybe, if you are right, they don't realize how much it will affect their seed. But I don't think you are right.


Most years, it would not matter if this "win" bumped us from a 4 to a 5, or from a 5 to a 6.

Of course it does. You always want to be the highest seed possible.


But some year or another, we may lose the WCC tournament and be a bubble team, and a loss like this could mean we go from one of the "last four in" to one of the "first four out."

Again, I contend that in no way possible would a game like this make the difference in something so important...unless they were to lose, of course.



This year, there is a decent chance that if we slip from 16 to 17, say, on the S curve because of our 8 point RPI drop, that will mean we go from Spokane to San Jose or somewhere else.

But again, there is NO EVIDENCE, that dropping a few spots in raw RPI totals makes a difference. None. If you can find me some, I'll happily eat crow. If Gonzaga fails to get a 4 seed and/or a spot in Spokane it will be because they lost to LMU and USF, not because they played CSB.


Nobody, not even the shrewdest coaches, has a crystal ball that can foresee all of this back when schedules are set.

Of course not, but if they thought there was ANY chance that it would adversely affect their seeding and/or their spot in the field they would be ABSOLUTELY FOOLISH to even risk it. You and other posters on this board seem to think that there is such a chance. Me and the coaching staff appear to disagree.

wiszag
03-03-2010, 12:04 PM
As I was scrolling down through the posts, I patiently awaited your inevitable blast. Your response to this type of thread is more predictable than the sun coming up tomorrow.

All kidding aside, I'll be in Spokane for the first round of the tourney, consider yourself forewarned!

marczagfan
03-03-2010, 12:49 PM
Plenty of angry zag fans in this thread....In my opinion I don't think this game hurt us. Yes, it hurt our RPI, but if you listened the the selection committee last year, they really only used RPI for teams that were on the bubble, which does not include the zags this year. What Gonzaga will be evaluated on is what kind of "good wins" they have and what "bad losses" they have, that will determine their seed.

Also, i've seen several comments on how everyone is pissed that the zags play this game every year. To my knowledge, and correct me if I'm wrong, last year was the first time we scheduled a game like this after our the regular conference season ended. It had no change on our seed last year and it won't this year. Right now we are a 4 or a 5, the only way that changes is if we lose in the tourney.

Last night was good for our seniors and it will be good for us come sunday when we play LMU or USF.

FieldHouseFishHouse
03-03-2010, 01:04 PM
RPI is not a solid rock but a matrix. The drop in RPI had more to do with a slew of losses by some of GU other opponents. Cincy lost and is on a bad losing stretch as is Illinois. Oklahoma continues to fall. WSU, Wake, Memphis all had bad losses recently. If these teams had not faltered, our RPI would be higher. If we played a D2 team, we would have still taken a major tumble.

Excellent point. RPI fluctuations have many factors, not just who you played last night.
On another note, our loss to Duke probably gave us a bump in RPI (haven't crunched the number, so I can't say for sure). You have to take the good with the bad.
For an interesting RPI test case, take a look at Cal's profile. They have played some very good teams...and lost to all of them. The result, mediocre record with a very good RPI.

U Zig, I Zag
03-03-2010, 03:46 PM
I think Few believed we would be in the basement this year after all the departing players and was hoping to end 09/10 with a win.



;)

Zagatak
03-03-2010, 04:09 PM
I think the commitee also realizes we play in the WCC which also has affects on our SOS and RPI. If we played in a better conference, they would both be much better.

whatazag
03-03-2010, 05:33 PM
I really believe dropping from 29 to 37 RPI could impact our seed. I never believed we had a chance at a 4 seed since our second conference loss anyway, but the this does not help and that's not really debatable. I don't really go for the argument that the guys need to play some crappy team to keep them sharp or whatever either, if anything it gets them used to being able to play sloppy and still win.

Pleasant Peninsula
03-03-2010, 06:32 PM
I don't really go for the argument that the guys need to play some crappy team to keep them sharp or whatever either, if anything it gets them used to being able to play sloppy and still win.


It's a wonder you weren't consulted, when the schedule was being put together...

MickMick
03-03-2010, 07:07 PM
It was a fun game intended to celebrate the players. A Kennel farewell on nice, easy terms.

The measuring stick is the sweet 16. Either a team has the goods to get it done or they don't.

That would be as a 3,4,5,6, or 7 seed. After the sweet 16, it really doesn't matter what your seed is. All the remaining teams are tough, tough, tough.

Look what that lofty 4 seed gained the Zags last season......an eventual match up with the #1 seed of the entire tourney.

I hate to see this RPI talk get in the way of a growing tradition.

gamagin
03-03-2010, 08:30 PM
It was a fun game intended to celebrate the players. A Kennel farewell on nice, easy terms.

The measuring stick is the sweet 16. Either a team has the goods to get it done or they don't.

That would be as a 3,4,5,6, or 7 seed. After the sweet 16, it really doesn't matter what your seed is. All the remaining teams are tough, tough, tough.

Look what that lofty 4 seed gained the Zags last season......an eventual match up with the #1 seed of the entire tourney.

I hate to see this RPI talk get in the way of a growing tradition.


this from section 116's Few interview notes Sun. or Mon night.

Dale in Ft. Wayne, IN., had the fan question. He was curious how Few felt regarding the potential first round NCAA appearance in Spokane for the Zags. Few noted it would be great for our fans. After selection Sunday our fans have just a few days to make travel arrangements and it is expensive. You don't know where you're going until then and it's hard for our fans to get some places. He said it would be nice for our guys to sleep in their own beds and not have to travel should the team be fortunate enough to be placed in Spokane. I haven't really dwelled on it with the team."
---

I watched this interview and several others like it. The last sentence above Few has said in several different ways over time.

What he is saying above, I believe, and what he has said many times, is he doesn't really think about the seeding. He doesn't dwell on it. I read into this that the process of getting through the WCC & to the dance occupies all his time, as it should, and the only goal is to make it one game at a time & meet and beat whomever we must to keep going. It makes sense to me, fwiw.

Arguing over it; micromanaging the various possibilities, the shoulda's, coulda's and woulda's, seems to fall under the purview of we here on the GUB to work off our nervous energy while the Zags focus on the heavy lifting.

ZagNative
03-03-2010, 09:38 PM
Few also commented on what a learning experience it was when the Zags got all worked up about the seeding (http://www.gozags.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/031302aab.html) that ended with them being placed in Albequerque. (I'm not sure which recent Few show it was on, whether TV or radio), but you may remembe the outcome of investing all that energy in fussing about seeding (from gozags.com:
March 12, 2002

GAME: No. 11 Wyoming (21-8) vs. No. 6 Gonzaga (29-3).

REGIONAL: West, First Round.

TIME: Thursday, 7:40 p.m. EST.

SITE: The Pit, Albuquerque, N.M.

Wyoming always seems to face Gonzaga when its mad.

Unhappy with its low-seeding, the Bulldogs look to take out their frustration on the court as they face Wyoming in the first round of the West regional on Thursday.

The last time these teams met was the last time the Bulldogs failed to make the NCAA tournament and posted a 69-55 victory in the first round of the National Invitation Tournament on March 11, 1998.

The Bulldogs are coming into the tournament with a No. 6 seed that it's not happy with.

"If anything, it probably helps as far as getting our guys to play with a chip on their shoulders," coach Mark Few said.

Never before in the history of the NCAA tournament has a Top 10 team been seeded so low.

"We might as well have been the 11th seed," Gonzaga Zach Gourde said. "We didn't get any protection from the (selection) committee and so we'll just have to knock some people off like we have before."

For the first time, however, Gonzaga will be the higher-ranked team in the first round. Few talked about experience being a great teacher about not getting all worked up about seeding, that it's wasted energy.

lothar98zag
03-04-2010, 01:59 PM
As I was scrolling down through the posts, I patiently awaited your inevitable blast. Your response to this type of thread is more predictable than the sun coming up tomorrow.

All kidding aside, I'll be in Spokane for the first round of the tourney, consider yourself forewarned!
Just because 229's posts on this subject are predictable doesn't mean he isn't right.