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View Full Version : GU's odds of winning the WCC tourney



VinnyZag
03-02-2010, 10:01 AM
Gonzaga has a 52 percent chance of winning the WCC tournament, according to Ken Pomeroy. SMC's at 35 percent, Portland at 11 percent. Pepperdine's a pretty big dog, at 0.01 percent.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=956

Martin Centre Mad Man
03-02-2010, 10:14 AM
If Buster Douglas can beat Tyson, Pepperdine can win the WCC.

BobZag
03-02-2010, 10:18 AM
We won't be seeing any blowouts by the Zags this time. SMC has extra motivation in the wake of Omar not being named POY, plus the Gaels will be desperate for that auto-bid after being overlooked by the NCAA Committee last March. But Portland will be equally hungry, too.

And LMU and USF know they can beat GU and will have plenty of confidence, whichever one wins Saturday.

It's shaping up to be a very competetive tourney.

ZagNative
03-02-2010, 10:41 AM
Thanks, VinnyZag! Good stuff!

U Zig, I Zag
03-02-2010, 10:54 AM
Good info. All things considered, I think we would play Butler tough.

Kind of sad, but the USF and LMU losses really threw us for a loop in a bunch of ways: computers, the polls, bracket talk, maybe Spokane?

Not taking away from the Conf championship, but ignoring what happened with those losses doesn't do us any favors either.

I hope the Zags come out with some fire! Gonna be a tough tourney.

Go Zags Go!

upan8th
03-02-2010, 10:54 AM
Don't know what Pomeroy has agin the Zags, but he's underrated the team all season. Currently ranking GU 46th behind illustrious AZ ST, UTEP, Old Dominion, and, gulp, the Fusskies of UDub squads.

Having seen the four games between GU and UP/SMC, my observation is that those two teams just don't match up very well w/the Zags. UP is missing an inside game and can't deal w/GU's height and athleticism. SMC has the inside game, but it can be neutralized w/a fast paced tempo and, once again, superior rebounding, aggressive defense, and athleticism.

Pomeroy should just say it's damn hard to beat good teams 3 straight times in the same season and let it go at that. If the Zags show up, bring their usual game, and understand the consequences of a loss, I'd say their chances of winning the tourney should be in the 75 to 80% range. So there!
(and GO SANTA CLARA!).:mad:

primal23
03-02-2010, 11:02 AM
Another rematch w/ LMU or USF is unsettling for me. It just reeks of upset, I worry more about that then a SMC game. That and having had a layoff of 5 days might cause a slow sluggish start. A loss in the semi's would not be good seeding wise, at least in terms of Spokane.

sullyzag66
03-02-2010, 11:04 AM
Don't know what Pomeroy has agin the Zags, but he's underrated the team all season. Currently ranking GU 46th behind illustrious AZ ST, UTEP, Old Dominion, and, gulp, the Fusskies of UDub squads.

Having seen the four games between GU and UP/SMC, my observation is that those two teams just don't match up very well w/the Zags. UP is missing an inside game and can't deal w/GU's height and athleticism. SMC has the inside game, but it can be neutralized w/a fast paced tempo and, once again, superior rebounding, aggressive defense, and athleticism.

Pomeroy should just say it's damn hard to beat good teams 3 straight times in the same season and let it go at that. If the Zags show up, bring their usual game, and understand the consequences of a loss, I'd say their chances of winning the tourney should be in the 75 to 80% range. So there!
(and GO SANTA CLARA!).:mad:
Don't think it's personal with Pomeroy. He's a data guy. He's developed a formula for evaluation and he just plugs the numbers in.

Pleasant Peninsula
03-02-2010, 11:16 AM
Don't know what Pomeroy has agin the Zags, but he's underrated the team all season. Currently ranking GU 46th behind illustrious AZ ST, UTEP, Old Dominion, and, gulp, the Fusskies of UDub squads.


Ken Pomeroy doesn't have anything against the Zags, his methodology does. And his methodology, which factors in each possession of the season and not just the wins/losses, has proven to be very good at predicting tournament success. If the Zags, can somehow get on a hot streak and reach the final four, it would be quite an outlier, as no team ranked lower than 25th by Pomeroy, has made the FF since he began publishing them. And that includes George Mason in '06, who was ranked 23rd and is the lowest of all the final four teams since 2004. The next lowest? Villanova. Last year. At 14. In four of the last six years, the ENTIRE final four has consisted of teams ranked in the kenpom top ten.

Do I think Gonzaga is better than the 46th team in the nation? Of course. But for Gonzaga to make some serious noise in the tourney this year, they're going to have to buck some extremely consistent trends.

Zagnailler
03-02-2010, 11:32 AM
Pomeroy has changed his formula this year and I wonder if he might re-evaluate and change it again next year. His explanation of the "luck" factor to me negates the value of a good senior like Bouldin.

lothar98zag
03-02-2010, 11:36 AM
fwiw, the 2006 Zags finished @ 41 in Pom's rating. That team made it to the Sw16, and coulda/woulda/shoulda...

So while being ranked in the 40s right now isn't good for GU's FF chances - you never know...



edit: repost of a kenpom aritcle from earlier this year that brings up the 06 Zags - http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=884

Reborn
03-02-2010, 11:57 AM
I like Gonzaga's chances of winnng the WCC tournament. They are better than anyone else's. The tournament is going to be great this year, as everyone knows. But in the end GU will prevail because we are the best team. I think Gonzaga is playing good basktball right now, and yet they can play better. The team reminds me of how they were playing at the beginning of the season. I think Matt's shooting is off right now, and he will need to find his shot if the Zag's are ging to win it. I think he will find it. I think Rob is finding his game again, and that's just great news. He's certainly back on track and I think he will have a great tournament. Harris has been in a valley, but he's coming out of it, and will also have a good tournament. Gray is up and down on offense but is at least attacking the basket when his outside shot is off. His defense is just great. I think the Zazs have the best bench, and it will be the reason we win this tournament. I think our guys off the bench are really solid right now and they were the ones who contributed a lot ton the San Francisco victory in my opinion. Arop, Kong, Olynyk and Will are peaking at the best time of the year. They have had a lot to learn this year and I think they've come a long way in terms of consistency.

Gonzaga will win the WCC tournament becaue they are the best team. It will be a war, and it should be. The WCC is much better this year, and it's something I've hoped for for a long time. The strength of the conference will help the Zags in the NCAA tournament.

Once and Future Zag
03-02-2010, 12:02 PM
Pomeroy has changed his formula this year and I wonder if he might re-evaluate and change it again next year. His explanation of the "luck" factor to me negates the value of a good senior like Bouldin.

He's always trying to tweak the numbers - but in the end I think his metrics are far and away the most "meaningful" when it comes to interpreting the tangibles.

UberZagFan
03-02-2010, 12:07 PM
That and having had a layoff of 5 days might cause a slow sluggish start. A loss in the semi's would not be good seeding wise, at least in terms of Spokane.

Uber counts 9 days but he'll still be in front of the TV tonight.

lothar98zag
03-02-2010, 12:19 PM
Uber counts 9 days but he'll still be in front of the TV tonight.
In RPI land tonight's game is basically the old 1vs8 WCC tourney game (except worse). So one could say GU's WCC tourney starts tonight...


FWIW -
http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_408_Men.html

Pep 6-22 rpi #296 (sos #169)
CSUB 7-21 rpi #321 (sos #303)

also, a W vs CSUB gets GU "less points" since the game is at home instead of neutral...


GU is currently @ 23-5 rpi #30 (sos #105). Expect it to be worse tomorrow.


Good thing GU twisted the WCC's arm until they stopped forcing the best two WCC teams from playing the worst two teams (on neutral or away courts). GU now gets to choose to play a team worse than the worst WCC team (at home). Things are so much better now.

bravo.

Crazy
03-02-2010, 01:54 PM
We won't be seeing any blowouts by the Zags this time. SMC has extra motivation in the wake of Omar not being named POY, plus the Gaels will be desperate for that auto-bid after being overlooked by the NCAA Committee last March. But Portland will be equally hungry, too.



if it extra motivation for Omar to show that he is the POY, i believe this would be good for the Zags - because i don't think he take it easy in the first two games and especially wouldn't take it easy when he want to participate in the madness.

But when he things he is the POY and want to show great numbers he will start forcing things for his own(not the team) which results to harder shots, turn overs and over motivated fouls.

gamagin
03-02-2010, 02:02 PM
We won't be seeing any blowouts by the Zags this time. SMC has extra motivation in the wake of Omar not being named POY, plus the Gaels will be desperate for that auto-bid after being overlooked by the NCAA Committee last March. But Portland will be equally hungry, too.
And LMU and USF know they can beat GU and will have plenty of confidence, whichever one wins Saturday. It's shaping up to be a very competetive tourney.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5i_D6oQO6b8

BobZag
03-02-2010, 02:09 PM
if it extra motivation for Omar to show that he is the POY, i believe this would be good for the Zags - because i don't think he take it easy in the first two games and especially wouldn't take it easy when he want to participate in the madness.

But when he things he is the POY and want to show great numbers he will start forcing things for his own(not the team) which results to harder shots, turn overs and over motivated fouls.

Good point, my German friend. :)

kyle dixon
03-02-2010, 02:25 PM
The champion will be St Mary's. Samhan got jobbed for the MVP and Bouldin is now the 5th best player in the league behind Samhan, Harris, Lowhorn, and Dellvedova.

Kidding aside, I cannot wait for this tourney as the quarterfinal on Saturday between LMU and USF will be a dandy. I think the semi's will all be good games as well and I can seriously say that a lot of WCC foes must feel good about their chances this weekend!

Let's go Zags and finish this off in Vegas!

Kyle

U Zig, I Zag
03-02-2010, 03:02 PM
GU, and the WCC in general, has a 80% chance of causing me an ulcer sometime this weekend.