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View Full Version : Lunardi explains how his Top-16 are Bracketed



BobZag
02-25-2010, 09:21 AM
Interesting stuff, but it is premium. (btw, ESPN Insider is the best deal in sports, imho.)

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=4945627

Here are the 11-16:



(11) New Mexico: It's an easy call to place the Lobos in the West (Salt Lake City) and San Jose. The West's S-Curve count is at 23 and bears continued watching.



(12) Vanderbilt: The last open slot for a No. 3 seed is the Midwest (St. Louis). The Commodores go there and grab the first New Orleans pod for the first weekend. The Midwest S-Curve count is 20.



(13) Pittsburgh: As the fifth Big East team on the top four lines, Pitt can go anywhere. However, we need the strongest possible team to help bring the West Region into balance. So the Panthers go West (Salt Lake) and take the only non-West sub-regional still on the board (New Orleans). Our S-Curve count in the West is at 36 (with 34 being "perfect" balance).



(14) BYU: The Cougars cannot go West because Mountain West rival New Mexico got there first, plus Pitt is also in the way. BYU's only other option is the East (Syracuse) because of the school's "no play Sunday" rule. The Cougars also need a Thursday/Saturday sub-regional, and there is one available in San Jose. The S-Curve count for the East is 31, not ideal but within the Committee's "acceptable" range.



(15) Michigan State: The Midwest and South are open, but Ohio State has blocked Sparty in the South. So Michigan State gets the Midwest (St. Louis) by default and also Spokane for the first weekend, as there are no other open pods remaining. The Midwest S-Curve count is 35.



(16) Gonzaga: The last available slots are South (Houston) and Spokane, so you can see how likely it is that the 'Zags will get to play close to home. Our final S-Curve count in the South is a perfect 34.



At the end of the day, we have adhered to all bracketing principles and given favorable geographic assignments wherever possible. We'd like a little more balance in the East and West regions, but nothing is out of the acceptable range.



The Committee at this point would "lock" the top four lines of the bracket and move on with their business.

Butler Guy
02-25-2010, 09:26 AM
Here is the counterpoint, effectively saying the methodology that people like Lunardi uses is ludicrous. (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=946)

BobZag
02-25-2010, 09:31 AM
Here is the counterpoint, effectively saying the methodology that people like Lunardi uses is ludicrous. (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=946)

Eh.

NorthoftheBorder
02-25-2010, 09:42 AM
I don't see anything in the article linked by Butler Guy that contradicts what Lunardi said. Lunardi was trying to figure out where the teams seeded #11 through #16 would play based on the NCAA tournament committee criteria.

MDABE80
02-25-2010, 09:43 AM
"16) Gonzaga: The last available slots are South (Houston) and Spokane, so you can see how likely it is that the 'Zags will get to play close to home. Our final S-Curve count in the South is a perfect 34." From Lunardi's article.

I must have missed the point. How likely is it that the Zags stay home? Perhaps part of the article didn't get posted. Did he clarify?

titopoet
02-25-2010, 10:39 AM
"16) Gonzaga: The last available slots are South (Houston) and Spokane, so you can see how likely it is that the 'Zags will get to play close to home. Our final S-Curve count in the South is a perfect 34." From Lunardi's article.

I must have missed the point. How likely is it that the Zags stay home? Perhaps part of the article didn't get posted. Did he clarify?

16 is the last of the four seeds, 1-4 are the 1 seeds, 5-8 are 2s, 9-12 are 3s and 13-16 are 4s. For lundardi, GU is a four, but just barely.

Reborn
02-25-2010, 10:41 AM
"16) Gonzaga: The last available slots are South (Houston) and Spokane, so you can see how likely it is that the 'Zags will get to play close to home. Our final S-Curve count in the South is a perfect 34." From Lunardi's article.

I must have missed the point. How likely is it that the Zags stay home? Perhaps part of the article didn't get posted. Did he clarify?

as of today, very likely.

bullzag23
02-25-2010, 10:43 AM
"16) Gonzaga: The last available slots are South (Houston) and Spokane, so you can see how likely it is that the 'Zags will get to play close to home. Our final S-Curve count in the South is a perfect 34." From Lunardi's article.

I must have missed the point. How likely is it that the Zags stay home? Perhaps part of the article didn't get posted. Did he clarify?

There's actually a good portion of the article that you don't see in BZ's original post. Basically at this point he's saying since GU is 16th on his 'S-Curve' we are the last 4 seed in the bracket, and since the other 3 regions already have 4 seeds that Spokane (a sub regional for the South bracket) is a likely site for us.

thebigsmoove
02-25-2010, 12:48 PM
FYI

For all you who think Joe Lunardi is a fool, i would caution that. He is like 98% accurate on predicting seeding over the last 10 years. Highest of all analysts, I would almost wonder if the Selection committee has wised up and just use his last bracketology to run most of their seeding to save time. I am by no means a ESPN or Lunardi fanboy, just stating fact...

bullzag23
02-25-2010, 12:53 PM
FYI

For all you who think Joe Lunardi is a fool, i would caution that. He is like 98% accurate on predicting seeding over the last 10 years. Highest of all analysts, I would almost wonder if the Selection committee has wised up and just use his last bracketology to run most of their seeding to save time. I am by no means a ESPN or Lunardi fanboy, just stating fact...

I know he's done a great job over the past several years at predicting which teams will get in, but seeding as well? I really hope you're right on this because he's been in love with GU as far as seeding is concerned this year.