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View Full Version : Bracketology Update- Doomed!



bullzag23
02-19-2010, 11:22 AM
All this talk of us being a 6 seed and Spokane being out of the picture are nonsense. Think I'm crazy? Check out the new bracketology, updated today:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Unless I've gone blind that's a 4 seed in Spotown that I see. Doomed! :D

Edit- SMC is also in as the final at large team....talk about a team needing to win out (but hoping they don't, at least not in Vegas baby!)

whatazag
02-19-2010, 12:06 PM
Sorry man, but Lunardi is not the authority. The mock draft that was held a week or so put the Zags at a 5 seed. That was before our second loss to a 200+ RPI team. We are projected around 35 RPI with 1 win against top 50 teams (unless St. Mary's can stay in the top 50). There is no chance we get a 4 seed.

flutieflakes
02-19-2010, 12:08 PM
Thanks to the collapse of the Pac-10, our loss last night still keeps us among the highest seeded teams from the "West". Just looking at Lunardi's projections, the western rankings go: New Mexico, BYU, Gonzaga, UNLV, UTEP, Cal, in that order. New Mexico, BYU and the Zags are all about even.

My question is, if the Zags could simply be ahead of New Mexico and BYU (read: SDSU or UNLV or someone else wins the MWC tourney and Cal doesn't win the Pac 10 tourney), would that be enough to get the Zags the spot in Spokane? Also, considering the location of New Mexico, is BYU the only real threat to take the Spokane seeding from the Zags?

tightface
02-19-2010, 12:10 PM
Agreed. These guys have a more accurate history of predicting brackets:

http://bracketology101.blogspot.com/

As of 2/15/10 the Zags were still a 4 in Spokane. I'll be interested to see where they have us next week.

Therunner
02-19-2010, 12:16 PM
I enjoy this Braketology matrix, which updates every couple days and includes all Mock Brackets from every major sports site on the internet. The seedings are based off the calculated averages from the 40+ projections on the internet. Gonzaga is currently predicted as the LAST 4 seed. Supposedly, this website has been quite precise and accurate when projecting potential seeds for the NCAA Tourney.

The 2010 Bracket Matrix (http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm)

Ezag
02-19-2010, 12:25 PM
Bracketology has rarely been the source of correct information in many past years

kyle dixon
02-19-2010, 12:28 PM
BYU will not be sent to Spokane as these games will be played on a Friday/Sunday format. A few years back they were scheduled to play in Spokane, but the selection committee had to swap them out for the Thursday/Saturday format.

krozman
02-19-2010, 12:29 PM
I think Lunardi is better at projection than anyone. That being said, Gonzaga needs help to get a 4 now.

bullzag23
02-19-2010, 12:36 PM
Sorry man, but Lunardi is not the authority. The mock draft that was held a week or so put the Zags at a 5 seed. That was before our second loss to a 200+ RPI team. We are projected around 35 RPI with 1 win against top 50 teams (unless St. Mary's can stay in the top 50). There is no chance we get a 4 seed.

I understand that Lunardi isn't the authority here, but if he's saying we were about to move up to a 3 seed as he did in his summary for bracketology today, do you really think this one loss will drop us 3 seeds? I'm doubtful, though I also doubt we'd stay as a 4, I see us as a 5 now, but only if we win out, and a 5 can still place us in Spokane.

rdulay8
02-19-2010, 04:27 PM
Yahoo's latest rankings have us as the last 5 seed:

http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1054107

btzag
02-19-2010, 08:36 PM
IF we win out that is 27-5 and a definite possibility at a 4. It could be a 5 or 6 but really does all that matter? It's still a talented, dangerous, but young team that will tip it off in the tourney no matter the seed. Honestly I prefer the 6 compared to the 4 or 5 as I just have a feeling we will be in the Kansas bracket...

77Zag
02-20-2010, 08:55 AM
Somebody show us all the facts that is leading to panic over the seeding and Spokane ---
Unless I'm wrong -- Davidson was a 10 seed playing the Zags a 7 in their backyard in Raleigh in 2008 --

Does anyone have the true to life rulings or is it just a committee thing at the final seeding party?

I think if the committee likes the Zags at that point, regardless of the seed, we see Spokane. If not, we travel - perhaps to San Jose, perhaps elsewhere ---

Where is the rules on the infamous "protected seed" --?? LINKS PLEASE

PS -- not that i'm hoping the Zags are not in Spokane, but i do have 8 seats for San Jose!! :D

75Zag
02-20-2010, 09:12 AM
Here you go '77

Happy Reading!

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/ca3a80004ed4ef7ba19db7e588614b8c/Principles+and+Procedures+2009-10.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ca3a80004ed4ef7ba19db7e588614b8c

Go Bulldogs! Get Bigger!

77Zag
02-20-2010, 09:29 AM
This is great -- thanks for the link. Will study a bit when time permits.

Got to run, so maybe you have the "quick" answer on how Davidson as a 10 played in their backyard?

thanks again...

Pleasant Peninsula
02-20-2010, 10:19 AM
Got to run, so maybe you have the "quick" answer on how Davidson as a 10 played in their backyard?

The top four seeds are "protected" meaning that 1) the committee tries to place them as close to home as possible for the first two rounds and 2) the committee tries to make sure that, if keeping the team close to home isn't possible, that they don't give their opponents a home advantage, at least in the first round. They try to protect them in the second round, too, but that's not always possible.

All other seeds are unprotected; they can go anywhere that fits. The committee didn't intentionally place Davidson close to home, nor did they "intentionally" punish Gonzaga by sending them to North Carolina. But that's how the bracket worked out. A similar situation was when Gonzaga, a #10, seed got to play in Seattle against #7 Minnesota.

The moral of the story is this: earn a protected seed or you can get burned like Gonzaga did in 08. (Which was way overblown around here, IMO; for one, Gonzaga earned that #7 seed by not taking care of business in the conference tourney, which was their 7th loss of the season, and two, regardless of where the game was played, Gonzaga was the better team and should have beaten Davidson...and would have if they would have executed during crunch time).

I don't know how possible a protected seed is this year; I thought the ship had sailed on that possibility with the LMU loss, but Lunardi, et al, at least seem to think it is possible. Regardless, another loss will likely leave the Zags in the 7/8 area that could see them sent anywhere.

zagfan08
02-20-2010, 11:24 AM
Lunardi tends to hang his hat on his ability to predict who will be in the field, rather than what seed each team will be. I think it's safe to say if the season ended today we wouldn't be a 4 seed. But, if we win out and other teams falter we could end up as a 4 or 5 (basically interchangable although 12 seeds are usually pretty good so a 4 is obviously preferable).

Personally, I'd rather have a 6 in the West region. Might have to lose another one (maybe vs. St. Mary's in the tourney) but that gives us the best chance to advance furthest in the NCAAs in my opinion.