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View Full Version : How much does this loss effect GU's seed?



dpouley
02-18-2010, 09:24 PM
I can understand keeping them out of Spokane, but I don't see how this could keep them out of a 4, 5 or 6 seed.

If they win out, and win the tourney, which I completely expect them to do. I find it hard to believe that they are not a 4 or 5.

I think that Zags are a young team, that at times this year has played above their age. This team is very talented, and has depth, however the depth is VERY young. Heck even the some of the starters do not have a ton of experience under their belt. Only Gray and Bouldin are really seasoned players. Young teams lose games that they should most of the time win.

I would much rather be in the Zags position than the horrendously pathetic position the other team I follow is in.

23dpg
02-18-2010, 09:42 PM
I think it does hurt the seeding. I'm guessing it moved from a 3-4 to a 5-6, that's if Gonzaga wins the rest of the games.

LynetteG
02-18-2010, 09:43 PM
dpouley you are a-ok in my book. as badly as you were in heated conversations this past week defending your Huskies, you post a very level-headed, complimentary thread about the Zags. right on!

cggonzaga
02-18-2010, 09:51 PM
I'm still thinking a 4 or 5 if they win out but it won't be in Spokane any longer.

NovaZag
02-18-2010, 09:53 PM
Yeah, my guess is a 5 or 6 seed if we win out. Much of it will depend on how other teams near us perform down the stretch.

d2zag
02-18-2010, 10:01 PM
If we are a 4 seed we have a 100% chance of being in Spokane. That won't happen. If we are a 5 seed we have about a 50% chance to be in Spokane. Highly unlikely that will happen. If we are a 6 seed, there is a 3% chance of being in Spokane. What I think will happen is we will be a seven seed, and not be in Spokane. I mean, I'm just trying to be realistic. The Dons and Lions have a combined RPI of 417. Those are two bad losses.

NotoriousZ
02-18-2010, 10:06 PM
Agree with dpouley (what a crazy night). If we were a 3-4 seed by winning out before tonight, then it's not unreasonable to say we're a 4-5 if we win out starting now. If we're a 4 or a 5, we will be in Spokane. I think we will need other teams to mess up a bit to get a 4, but it could happen (if we do our part and play like we should). And if we're a 5 seed in Spokane, that's better than being a 4 seed somewhere else.

LongIslandZagFan
02-18-2010, 10:06 PM
I'm still thinking a 4 or 5 if they win out but it won't be in Spokane any longer.

4 keeps them in Spokane... 5 might even keep them in Spokane. Lunardi has said this several times.

northsidezagfan
02-18-2010, 10:08 PM
I mean, I'm just trying to be realistic.

its pretty refreshing to hear this on the boards. now dont get me wrong... i love my zags to the point of unhealthy obsession (just ask my girlfriend) but this was not good at all for our seed. it was a very ugly loss, and i think a 7 is extremely realistic, especially with out history with the seeding committee (such as a 6 seed while being the 6th ranked team in the country). we have exceeded expectations this year and i fully support the zags but we do need to be realistic.

LongIslandZagFan
02-18-2010, 10:11 PM
its pretty refreshing to hear this on the boards. now dont get me wrong... i love my zags to the point of unhealthy obsession (just ask my girlfriend) but this was not good at all for our seed. it was a very ugly loss, and i think a 7 is extremely realistic, especially with out history with the seeding committee (such as a 6 seed while being the 6th ranked team in the country). we have exceeded expectations this year and i fully support the zags but we do need to be realistic.

I think a 7 seed is actually fairly UN-realistic. This could drop them to a 5 possibly a 6... but 7 is too huge of a drop.

cggonzaga
02-18-2010, 10:12 PM
4 keeps them in Spokane... 5 might even keep them in Spokane. Lunardi has said this several times

If that's the case then this loss doesn't really hurt us all that much. I just don't see us getting a seed lower than 5 if we win out. I still think we'll be a 4 seed if we win out.

MickMick
02-18-2010, 10:15 PM
This puts extreme pressure on them not to slip again. It is fair to say that it is much too early to talk about seeding from the angle that the Zags will win out.

That is one mighty "What if?" There are 3-4 teams that can beat the Zags in the conference tournament in addition to a regular season rematch with a pesky USF team.

Perhaps the seeding talk shoud be relative to the WCC tournament as opposed to the NCAA tournament.

Hooray4Daye&Gray
02-18-2010, 11:36 PM
"Perhaps the seeding talk shoud be relative to the WCC tournament as opposed to the NCAA tournament."

...it would still take 2 losses out of three for us not to be the one seed in the wcc tournament.

aka it would take the biggest collapse in GU history.

i think it's fair to discuss ncaa tournament seeding.

carry on.

MDABE80
02-18-2010, 11:38 PM
Wait! Wait till other 1-5 seeds start dropping. We lost one tongight but it'lll be a 4 or 5 and Zags stay n Spokane. It's that time in the season when other will begin dropping. Just hope we're not one of them. If we win the rest of the way in, the worst will be a 5...and still in Spokane for the first two rounds. Assurances are formally given. We lose another one though...ummm...get out the suitcases..

whatazag
02-18-2010, 11:59 PM
6.

And that is okay.

alaskazagnut
02-19-2010, 02:20 AM
How much does this loss effect GU's seed?

If planted in good soil we should have a good crop of Zags in the next few years. With good sunlight, water, food and lots of love, our Zag seeds should grow big and healthy enough for a few fully loaded repeat championship teams.

1973Zag
02-19-2010, 04:01 AM
We could be a 3 playing a 6 in the second round, or a 6 playing a 3-- looks the same to me. The pressure would be off for basically the same game. First round game would be a little tougher as a 6, but I personally would prefer that to a 5, or even 4,======My real concern is our seeming inability to prepare for(be it coaches or players)vastly inferior opponents.

gonstu
02-19-2010, 06:19 AM
We could be a 3 playing a 6 in the second round, or a 6 playing a 3-- looks the same to me. The pressure would be off for basically the same game. First round game would be a little tougher as a 6, but I personally would prefer that to a 5, or even 4,======My real concern is our seeming inability to prepare for(be it coaches or players)vastly inferior opponents.

There is a big difference. If we are playing AS a 3 seed, we are playing against a team ranked 21st-24th in the pool of teams. If we are playing AGAINST a 3 seed, we are playing against a team ranked 9th-12th in the pool of teams. Also, if we are playing as a 3 seed we are playing in Spokane, most likely not true if we are the 6 seed. So there is a big difference initially. It would become a moot point in the round of 16 when we would face the 2 seed regardless.

Having said that, after watching the last few weeks and seeing the two hiccups against teams we should be able to beat, I'm starting to like our chances as underdogs better than our chances as favorites.

webspinnre
02-19-2010, 06:33 AM
I think as of today I'd put the Zags as a low 5 or a high 6. Win out, win the WCC tourney, and they've got an outside chance at a 4, but I think a 5 is more likely.

U Zig, I Zag
02-19-2010, 06:49 AM
I am fairly confident that we are gonna look at a 5 seed and probably not in Spokane. #1 reason is that I have very, very good seats for the tourney in Spokane and my luck is like peeing upwind. 2nd, I think that even if we win out it puts a real Jekyl and Hyde tag on us. Playing some big games tough then losing to teams that we shouldn't lose to. Committee isn't going to like that. And us losing in conference is MUCH different then, say, Duke playing in the ACC. Those teams may not be very good game to game (middle and bottom tier teams) as a whole but they all have ACC talent... so Duke dropping one on the road is much different then us losing to LMU. If we think we are a top 20, top 10 team then you don't lose to a team like LMU this late in the season. USF? maybe... long run of WCC wins, streaks end often when you least expect it. We are young, etc. But you don't get a pass on the second go around.

I am getting over it, but last night just made me sick. Sick! :vomit-smiley-007:

primal23
02-19-2010, 07:14 AM
Spokane is gone IMHO, this loss plus the USF loss, and hell they get one of those teams in the WCC tourney they could lay another goose egg. 5-6 is only if they win out including the tourney. I wouldn't look past a possible loss tomorrow either.

75Zag
02-19-2010, 07:22 AM
Under NCAA rules, the chance to play subregional games a quarter mile from your own campus is extremely rare and (in my opinion) an extremely valuable prize for any team who gets that opportunity. I believe that the NCAA seeding committee would have awarded that valuable prize to GU if GU finished the season strongly and highly ranked. With the two bad WCC losses the seeding committee now has a great excuse why they should NOT reward GU with what is essentially a home game for the subregionals. Of course they could still do it, but my money says that the committee will not feel the need or necessarily want to reward GU after last night. I think those predicting a 6 in San Jose are pretty much on target. I am a bit nervous that GU could do worse, but I don't think that will happen absent a complete collapse.

Go Bulldogs! Get Bigger!

rdulay8
02-19-2010, 07:33 AM
well, Lunardi hasn't noticed...

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

VinnyZag
02-19-2010, 07:50 AM
No 4 seed has TWO losses as bad as USF and LMU. A No. 6 is most likely, I think, probably somewhere far away.

Reborn
02-19-2010, 07:54 AM
Two bad losses, yes. But way more great wins on the road. The wins on the road are: Illinois, Memphis, St. Mary's, Portland. I think these wins in very tough places is more important than the two losses. I think this Zag team does have a problem with intensity on a consistent basis, but when they play tough teams they have always had it.

Even though I did not like the effort last night, and really did not enjoy that game, I think the Zags have proven they are a quality team, and especially against tough teams. The game last night does not diminish my hopes for this team. I believe they will win out, and they will get a #5 or #4 seed in Spokane. That would put us in Spokane. However, as Bob has indicated before, a #6 seed is not bad because we would not have to play the #1 team in the Sweet 16. I think a 6 seed is very good, especially if we're the #1 sixth seed.

At the beginning of the year I thought this team would lose 5 games and 2 in league, and I said I didn't know who they would be to. I expected an upset, and a loss to either Portland or St. Mary's. I am very pleased and remain excited about this team. I think they will be ready for Pepperdine on Saturday. The coaching staff had better wake up because they caused that loss last night with overconfident subbing when we were ahead.

kyle dixon
02-19-2010, 08:02 AM
Right now as a Zag fan I am not concerned about what seed the Zags get in the NCAA tourney as I am more concerned about winning the WCC regular season title outright. I hate this loss and I guess it is one thing when the Zags lose by not making buckets, but when they lose due to getting outhustled and turning the ball over so carelessly that is more alarming. The 50-50 balls were won all by LMU as the Zag players watched. Need to refocus and move on with a better effort. Get back to the words of Fitz, "Play hard, play smart."

NotoriousZ
02-19-2010, 08:17 AM
Under NCAA rules, the chance to play subregional games a quarter mile from your own campus is extremely rare and (in my opinion) an extremely valuable prize for any team who gets that opportunity. I believe that the NCAA seeding committee would have awarded that valuable prize to GU if GU finished the season strongly and highly ranked. With the two bad WCC losses the seeding committee now has a great excuse why they should NOT reward GU with what is essentially a home game for the subregionals. Of course they could still do it, but my money says that the committee will not feel the need or necessarily want to reward GU after last night. I think those predicting a 6 in San Jose are pretty much on target. I am a bit nervous that GU could do worse, but I don't think that will happen absent a complete collapse.

Go Bulldogs! Get Bigger!

It's happened before that a 5 seed has played in their hometown (or really close to it). I don't agree with it, but the NCAA protects the top 5 seeds, not the top 4. There's no team out west (and certainly not in the NW) that's going to be in competition for a 5 seed with us (if we win out from here), so IF we get a 5 we should be in Spokane.

CDC84
02-19-2010, 08:35 AM
Spokane is history.

Zags can get a 6 if they win out. Hopefully they'll get San Jose.

Colbyspapa
02-19-2010, 08:47 AM
No better than 6. History has show us to do worse with as good or better tournament resumes. We have lost 2 in our last 10 against poor RPI teams. The committee has said last ten will not be a factor (new this year), but it leaves an impression. Our body of work is good, our RPI will suffer with this loss, however, we have learned, no one does us any favors when it comes to seeding. Plan to travel Zags and hope that someone with a strong fan base gets Spokane so we can make a lot of money on our tournament tickets on stubhub.

bullzag23
02-19-2010, 08:49 AM
Spokane is history.

Zags can get a 6 if they win out. Hopefully they'll get San Jose.

Hold the phone. According to Lunardi's summary (available only to ESPN insiders):

GONZAGA
The loss at LMU was more than unexpected. It was damaging enough to prevent Gonzaga from moving up to a No. 3 seed in this bracket.

He's leaving us as a 4 in Spokane...

GonzagaSwagga
02-19-2010, 08:50 AM
The coaching staff had better wake up because they caused that loss last night with overconfident subbing when we were ahead.
Agreed. Great post overall. Keeping it real, but staying positive.

Salsageek
02-19-2010, 09:35 AM
I say we should lose the rest of the conference games and just barely win the conference tourney. We will get a 15 seed and play a 2 seed in the first round! All we have to do is to knock off the 2 seed and we will have a path like a 2 seed the rest of the way. :p

tobizag
02-19-2010, 10:41 AM
Hold the phone. According to Lunardi's summary (available only to ESPN insiders):

GONZAGA
The loss at LMU was more than unexpected. It was damaging enough to prevent Gonzaga from moving up to a No. 3 seed in this bracket.

He's leaving us as a 4 in Spokane...

WOW.

i'm at a loss. having a hard time believing the committee would agree, but let's hope he's right. i'd predict a 5-6 in san jose

Kiddwell
02-19-2010, 12:10 PM
Wait! Wait till other 1-5 seeds start dropping. We lost one tongight but it'lll be a 4 or 5 and Zags stay n Spokane. It's that time in the season when other will begin dropping. Just hope we're not one of them. If we win the rest of the way in, the worst will be a 5...and still in Spokane for the first two rounds. Assurances are formally given. We lose another one though...ummm...get out the suitcases..

+1

We need to hope a lot of those 1-5 "Seeders" start losing to lower-ranked teams in their respective conferences. There are a couple of weeks to go for this to happen. Some highly regarded teams can tank in two weeks (then tank further in their tourneys). Here's hoping enough do (while the Zags are playing angry and kicking butt in conference and the WCC Tourney) to give the Zags a skinny little chance at a "4 Seed."

All the same, the MOST LIKELY "best case scenario" = 5 Seed...which, when you consider the team's youth, is not too bad.


:[

FlyZag
02-19-2010, 12:22 PM
After much thought and debate, I think I'd rather have a 6 seed in San Jose than a 4 seed in Spokane. Crazy huh.

Being in Spokane will create lots and lots of pressure and expectations, plus if we did advance to the sweet sixteen we'd face the 1 seed (if chalk held).

In San Jose, we'd still be in the West coast. Familiar hotels, flight, etc. Away from home town distractions (girlfriends, etc.) And as a 6 seed you would be opposite the #1 seeds. And lets face it. After the #1's there isn't that much different in talent from say Team #5 through team 20. Clearly the likes of Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse and Duke are a notch above... but I think the next 15 or so teams could beat each other on any given night. (except LMU and SF of course).

bullzag23
02-19-2010, 01:23 PM
After much thought and debate, I think I'd rather have a 6 seed in San Jose than a 4 seed in Spokane. Crazy huh.

Being in Spokane will create lots and lots of pressure and expectations, plus if we did advance to the sweet sixteen we'd face the 1 seed (if chalk held).

In San Jose, we'd still be in the West coast. Familiar hotels, flight, etc. Away from home town distractions (girlfriends, etc.) And as a 6 seed you would be opposite the #1 seeds. And lets face it. After the #1's there isn't that much different in talent from say Team #5 through team 20. Clearly the likes of Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse and Duke are a notch above... but I think the next 15 or so teams could beat each other on any given night. (except LMU and SF of course).

True but for selfish purposes I want Gonzaga to be in Spokane for the first two rounds (read- I have tickets :D ). The ideal situation would have called for a 3 seed, but the USF and LMU losses have all but eliminated that, barring some minor miracle.

maynard g krebs
02-19-2010, 01:58 PM
The greatest times to be a Zag fan have been, imo, when the team has been a double digit seed.

Games like LMU are going to happen to all but a handful of teams with elite talent. Sure the effort could have been better, but it's humanly impossible to put out peak effort 30+ times a year.

With the parity we have now in the game, you can pretty much throw a blanket over the 3-8 (or so) seeds. Fine lines of distinction, and it becomes about matchups and who comes out loose and confident when the CBS cameras are on.

Much ado about little, really. Thinking back to the fall threads re: expectations, 5 losses at this pt is pretty darn good.

LynetteG
02-19-2010, 02:27 PM
After much thought and debate, I think I'd rather have a 6 seed in San Jose than a 4 seed in Spokane.

I agree with this. A 3 or a 6 means we don't meet the 1 seed for another round, whereas a 4 or 5, and well, we'd see them a lot sooner than I'd like to!

drnoe
02-19-2010, 02:57 PM
It's easy for the committee to overlook one conference loss, but I'm afraid this 2nd loss just might cause the committee to pin a 6 seed on the Zags. The Zags need to win out and do so with a vengeance. A 4 or 5 seed is still possible, but probably not without making a statement the rest of the way. I really hope the Zags end up playing LMU in the semis or the finals.

Reborn
02-19-2010, 03:03 PM
The loss at LMU was more than unexpected. It was damaging enough to prevent Gonzaga from moving up to a No. 3 seed in this bracket. He's leaving us as a 4 in Spokane...

I agree. You can not discount all the good they have done. Gonzaga really was heading for a #3 seed if they had kept winning. And that hurts really. But I will not give up on the Zags' changces against the #1 seeds. They have surprised us with some losses and have really surprised us with some great victory. The committee is going to look at the overall body of work, which is pretty good for the Zags.