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BobZag
02-15-2010, 08:42 AM
2/15/10:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

I don't like the matchups, nor going to St. Louis if GU wins both.

Lunardi will be chatting soon.

El Voce
02-15-2010, 08:48 AM
2/15/10:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

I don't like the matchups, nor going to St. Louis if GU wins both.

Lunardi will be chatting soon.

But I know at least a couple Zag fans who would be ecstatic if the Zags played in St. Louis. Maybe even beyond ecstatic.

zagfan07
02-15-2010, 08:52 AM
Lundardi has St. Mary's among the last 4 in; also playing in Spokane with the Zags. Interesting choice since the general consensus among most people is that they are out after that loss to Portland.

I really hope we can somehow steal a 3 seed; it would be much better to see a 2 seed in the sweet 16 than a 1. Those top 4 teams seem to be a cut above the rest.

gozagswoohoo
02-15-2010, 08:54 AM
2/15/10:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

I don't like the matchups, nor going to St. Louis if GU wins both.

Lunardi will be chatting soon.

Sounds good to me! :-)

Ziggy
02-15-2010, 08:54 AM
Lundardi has St. Mary's among the last 4 in; also playing in Spokane with the Zags. Interesting choice since the general consensus among most people is that they are out after that loss to Portland.

I really hope we can somehow steal a 3 seed; it would be much better to see a 2 seed in the sweet 16 than a 1. Those top 4 teams seem to be a cut above the rest.

Agreed. Even if the 3 seed puts us elsewhere!

BlueVoodoo07
02-15-2010, 08:55 AM
I think as long as we win out, other teams will lose and we will end up with a #3 seed, God that would be nice not playing #1 seed

BobZag
02-15-2010, 09:23 AM
Chat at noon PST--

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/30840/bracketologist-joe-lunardi

Good luck!

thickman1
02-15-2010, 09:47 AM
It's interesting to see what Lunardi says about St. Mary's.



An inability to beat Gonzaga is masking the fact that Saint Mary's is a pretty good basketball team. Should the Gaels lose a third time to the Zags next month in the WCC tourney, they will miss the NCAAs again.

I agree with his statement and don't get why the Gaels don't try to improve that OOC schedule. They put all their eggs in the Gonzaga basket. Sure they played Vandy this year but that's it. You can't tell me they wouldn't win a couple games on neutral courts against Big 6 conference foes or away games at high end MWC or WAC schools.

BlueVoodoo07
02-15-2010, 11:48 AM
Well I got my question on the board about what it would take for Gonzaga to get a #3seed in Spokane, and he decided to not really answer it. LOL

GorgeZag
02-15-2010, 11:59 AM
I agree with his statement and don't get why the Gaels don't try to improve that OOC schedule.

They probably have a heck of a time getting teams to man up and play them.

Nevtelen
02-15-2010, 12:15 PM
It's interesting to see what Lunardi says about St. Mary's.


I agree with his statement and don't get why the Gaels don't try to improve that OOC schedule. They put all their eggs in the Gonzaga basket. Sure they played Vandy this year but that's it. You can't tell me they wouldn't win a couple games on neutral courts against Big 6 conference foes or away games at high end MWC or WAC schools.

Well, the do have 2 wins that resemble the end of that equation - @ Utah St (a REALLY tough place to play) and vs SDSU, who they destroyed. Those are pretty good wins. Obviously beating Vandy puts them in, but even with that loss, if they could have beaten USC and then just given UNLV a game (I think they could have won, but I'm not even sure that was necessary) they'd have been in pretty decent position. Their biggest problem is how weak the rest of their schedule was, I think. With a lot more decent teams in there instead of really bad ones, I think they would have had a chance still. OTOH, having lost what he lost, I can understand why Bennett scheduled the way he did.

rawkmandale
02-15-2010, 02:00 PM
This looks like a pretty clear answer from Lunardi:



Caleb (Seattle)

So if Gonzaga wins out what percentage would you say they have to get that #3seed in Spokane.

Joe Lunardi (3:05 PM)

It's not the actual seed Gonzaga receives, but the number of teams ahead of them for whom Spokane is the closest destination. This year as long as the 'Zags are no lower than a No. 5, they will play in Spokane.

BlueVoodoo07
02-15-2010, 02:26 PM
Really he never gave me a a percentage of what he thought this could happen.

rawkmandale
02-15-2010, 02:41 PM
It certainly sounds like he is saying 100% if the Zags are no lower than a 5 seed.

BlueVoodoo07
02-15-2010, 02:43 PM
look i am not asking about our chance of just playing in Spokane I think we almost got that locked up, I wanted to know what he thought about us getting up to a 3seed in Spokane.

NotoriousZ
02-15-2010, 03:28 PM
I thought Lunardi said earlier that we could get a three seed if we win out. Personally, I think we've got just as good of a chance for a three than for a four seed if we run the table. Here's the competition for a three spot (with Joe's current bracket):
(2) Michigan St. 19-4
(2) Purdue 21-3
(2) Duke 21-4
(2) Kansas St. 19-4
(3) West Virginia 19-5
(3) Georgetown 18-6
(3) Wisconsin 19-6
(3) Ohio St. 20-6
(4) New Mexico 23-3
(4) Vanderbilt 18-5
(4) BYU 22-3
(4) Gonzaga 20-4 Yeaaaaah GO ZAGS!!!
(5) Pitt 19-6
(5) Texas 20-5
(5) Wake 18-5
(5) Temple 20-5
There will probably a 6 seed or lower that could creep up to a 3 seed by winning one of the big conference tourneys. And the current 2 seeds might have to lose three more games before we could move ahead of them, but that's possible. The main fight for the 3 seeds will be between the current 3-5 seeds, and if we win out I like our chances because many if not most of them will not.

btzag
02-15-2010, 03:52 PM
Honestly the six teams ranked directly in front of Gonzaga are bizarre in my opinion. Yes they are all good teams but I can't think of any argument for them other than they end up in Lunardi's nitty gritty computer ranking ahead of GU.

The MWC teams have not even been tested against top BCS level competition let alone beat any. And they are thrown in the top 12 or 16 teams in the country anyways? Again good league and good teams but not ahead of the Zags.

Vandy and Georgetown both could end up with 8 losses and are the third and fourth best teams in their respective conf's. Is that better than the zags?

And Wisconsin? Fourth best big 10 team and we beat them at full strength on a neutral court!

I do think Ohio St at full strength should be above us just on the eye test but the others have no case in my opinion. Lunardi needs to watch some more hoops instead of relying on his RPI/nittygritty/computer rankings.

cggonzaga
02-15-2010, 04:08 PM
I believe we should be a 3 seed now. I also believe that IF we win out we will be a 2 seed.

BobZag
02-15-2010, 04:08 PM
This looks like a pretty clear answer from Lunardi:



Caleb (Seattle)

So if Gonzaga wins out what percentage would you say they have to get that #3seed in Spokane.

Joe Lunardi (3:05 PM)

It's not the actual seed Gonzaga receives, but the number of teams ahead of them for whom Spokane is the closest destination. This year as long as the 'Zags are no lower than a No. 5, they will play in Spokane.

Me like answer.

I'm pretty confident about a 3 seed IF the guys win out.

rawkmandale
02-15-2010, 04:23 PM
I have to agree that we should be worthy of a three, assuming some of the folks ahead of us stumble. Other than than the 1s and 2s (I'll grant all those to reasonably be listed above us - although we can play with most), there is not a single three or four (EXCEPT Ohio State) that are really better than us - based on watching their play. As was noted above, a 5 could sneak ahead by winning a conference tournament, but a "low" three seems viable if we win out.

McZag
02-15-2010, 04:31 PM
But I know at least a couple Zag fans who would be ecstatic if the Zags played in St. Louis. Maybe even beyond ecstatic.

Being in STL I'm good with Lunardi. I really don't like the Kansas match up though.

adoptedzag
02-15-2010, 04:45 PM
Being in STL I'm good with Lunardi. I really don't like the Kansas match up though.

Agreed, out of all the #1s, I think I'd rather face Kentucky than Kansas.

FuManShoes
02-15-2010, 07:31 PM
2/15/10:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

I don't like the matchups, nor going to St. Louis if GU wins both.

Lunardi will be chatting soon.

Maybe the Zags should just politely decline a tourny berth if they're going to face such tough matchups. That's what the Huskies have done :)

webspinnre
02-15-2010, 08:36 PM
Maybe the Zags should just politely decline a tourny berth if they're going to face such tough matchups. That's what the Huskies have done :)

Is that the new euphemism for losing? "declining a tourney berth" - has a nice ring to it.

dpouley
02-15-2010, 10:24 PM
Maybe the Zags should just politely decline a tourny berth if they're going to face such tough matchups. That's what the Huskies have done :)

Gonzaga strength of schedule: 58

UW strength of schedule: 43

Take shots at the Huskies all you want, they are not a very good team this year. But the strength of schedule argument doesn't really hold true.

RealTime RPI (http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html)

FuManShoes
02-15-2010, 10:45 PM
Gonzaga strength of schedule: 58

UW strength of schedule: 43

Take shots at the Huskies all you want, they are not a very good team this year. But the strength of schedule argument doesn't really hold true.

RealTime RPI (http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html)

Calm down kiddo. That was a joke about the difficulty of the matchups projected IN THE TOURNAMENT, not a swipe at the Huskies' schedule. Now, if the Huskies could deal with the difficulty of, well, any road game in their pedestrian league, maybe they would be in position to consider such things.

Personally I think fretting about projected matchups in the Tourney is wasted effort since 1) it's just a projection 2) pretty much any Tourney team can beat you 3) momentum and luck play such a big role and 4) it's The Big Dance fer chriss' sake, enjoy the damn thing! Every game, every matchup, favorable or not, is a Gift from God!

dawgfather11
02-15-2010, 10:46 PM
Gonzaga strength of schedule: 58

UW strength of schedule: 43

Take shots at the Huskies all you want, they are not a very good team this year. But the strength of schedule argument doesn't really hold true.

RealTime RPI (http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html)

and despite not being all that consistent this year UW will still most likely make the dance. 2 games @ home agains the LA schools and 3 roads games against the bottom 3 teams in the pac will be plenty

sittingon50
02-15-2010, 10:46 PM
That's why the Zags are afraid to play a NEUTRAL game with the huskies in Key Arena, dp. They know they'll get kicked, what with your strength of schedule.

zagfan08
02-15-2010, 11:44 PM
and despite not being all that consistent this year UW will still most likely make the dance

"Most likely" is definitely pushing it. They'll win at home, but 1-2 on the road would not be a shock in the least considering their road struggles this year. Even if you win all 5, you'll probably need a run to the Pac 10 championship to be on the good side of the bubble. Right now, the only way to make it in is to win the tournament, and a loss at Oregon or Wazzu takes away any chance at an at-large (and one loss in those two games is probably likely at this point).

As for the Zags, can't help but wish we had that USF game back. Little doubt in my mind we'd end up as a 3 if we won that. Just have to take care of business, win the next 7 games and hope some teams around us on the S curve lose a couple. A 3 seed is the goal, and I'd love our chances in March with one.

kyle dixon
02-16-2010, 05:58 AM
Look forward to two tough games down in L.A. Handle business and come home to obtain revenge on USF and put Keating in his place.

I was thinking of the Huskies and the only thing that I could think of was the movie I watched when I was younger boy called Lassie. Lassie left his residence and all of the kids/pet owners clamored for Lassie "to please come home". This kind of resembles the Huskies men's basketball team in my opinion. Don't want to get too far away from familiar surroundings...

JLGutrocks
02-16-2010, 07:34 AM
More bracketology (http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/NCAA-tournament-bracket-prediction-021510)

former1dog
02-16-2010, 07:42 AM
More bracketology (http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/NCAA-tournament-bracket-prediction-021510)

Interestingly, we have played 3 out of the 4 3 seeds in that bracket, Wisco, Mich ST and Wake.

hockeyzag
02-16-2010, 07:57 AM
and despite not being all that consistent this year UW will still most likely make the dance. 2 games @ home agains the LA schools and 3 roads games against the bottom 3 teams in the pac will be plenty

How on earth can you still believe this. UW is 4th in a conference that most people consider to be a one bid conference. I have not seen one single national writer/basketball expert even mention the Huskies as a legitamate NCAA tourney participant. Looks like it's the NIT for the Huskies, if they're lucky.

Nevtelen
02-16-2010, 08:07 AM
and despite not being all that consistent this year UW will still most likely make the dance. 2 games @ home agains the LA schools and 3 roads games against the bottom 3 teams in the pac will be plenty

They only have 2 decent wins - Cal and Texas A&M (and A&M has a huge asterisk next to it) and some bad losses. They're 7-6 in a bad league. No shot, even if they win every single other game in front of them (no good wins to be had there).

MDABE80
02-16-2010, 08:30 AM
SOS doesn't mean much when you're getting beat so frequently.:)
UW's coming on now and should eek out a spot in the tournament .

No good guard play and Brockamn is missed. P10 is awful this year again. Still, LoRo and his kids should get in. How face saving!...

Reborn
02-16-2010, 09:26 AM
It's nice to see the confidence growing here on the board. I think IF we win out that we will be a #3 seed too. What I am now looking at and hoping for is to get the #3 seed in Spokane in the West Regional. That would be great. One of the #2 seeds will come out West and I'd love to play them in Salt Lake. And then to play a #1 seed (if they don't get upset first) out West would be so cool. I also think the #1 seed who is going to be playing out West is going to be very vulnerable to losing before the Elite 8. There are some really good teams in the 4,5 seeds, and so many teams this year have had difficulty on the road. I think teams coming out west will be very vulnerable. I think this is the best route to the Final 4.

I do think Gonzaga deserves a shot at playing in the West because we are the best team in the West. I think most people know that Gonzaga would have beaten Wake Forest if Harris had not gotten kicked out of the game. And our loss to USF was a fluke. Zags could have just 2 losses. I can accept the USF loss because we were playing on the road and we were in need of a wake up call. But I can't see the Wake loss as a valid one. It should really have an asterex by it. I also believe that Gonzaga has a good argument to be placed a head of or equal to Michigan St. since we barely lost to them on their court, which is a very tough place to win.

Come on Committee. Give us a break for once. The Zags are deserving a seed in the West. Go Zags. show the Committee. Get really fired up on this Road Trip and win both games. We can't afford another slip up right now.

dpouley
02-16-2010, 03:48 PM
They only have 2 decent wins - Cal and Texas A&M (and A&M has a huge asterisk next to it) and some bad losses. They're 7-6 in a bad league. No shot, even if they win every single other game in front of them (no good wins to be had there).

I would not bet money on the Huskies making the tourney, in fact I would probably bet against them making the tournament. However, the fact that they are in a "bad league" is being used against them on this board is not only ironic it is incredibly laugh out loud hilarious.

a) The Pac 10 has been one of the best conferences in America over the last four years.

b) The Pac 10 is still a power conference even in a very down year.

c) The reason the Pac 10 is having a down year is that omething like 26 of its players have been drafted into the NBA over the last three years.

All that being said the Huskies are a very borderline (way outside loking in) tourney team this year.

dawgfather11
02-16-2010, 04:28 PM
They only have 2 decent wins - Cal and Texas A&M (and A&M has a huge asterisk next to it) and some bad losses. They're 7-6 in a bad league. No shot, even if they win every single other game in front of them (no good wins to be had there).

See this is where you are incorrect. People need to learn key things w hen looking at teams on the bubble and making the dance. Even ESPN see's this, despite saying we are about dead, they included us in the bubble watch for the first time this year because we keep winning.
UW 17-8 (7-6) 1-6 road
RPI currently UW is at 53
SOS UW at 43
Last 10 7-3
The key # for UW will be 23, if they can ge tto 23 wins they are a lock
Now UW should win their next 5 games but they can afford 1 slip up on the road, if they make the conference tourney finals. That would put them at
22-8 (12-6) 4-6 on the road
RPI forecasts out to low 40's high 30's depends on what other teams do (3 road games really helps out
SOS prolly stay right around the same
Last 10 9-1 UW would actually finish the regular season at 10-1 last 11 games. The committee absolutely loves teams that's finish strong, this would be the biggest + for UW to make it.
UW would just need to win 1 game in the conference tourney to be a lock.

Anyways this all goes out the window if we lose at home this week or lose more than once to end the year...

MickMick
02-16-2010, 06:02 PM
Husky fans playing fantasy football again.

The only thing they can hang their hat on is theoretical number crunching.

SOS and RPI is their typical mantra. The win/loss record really doesn't count.

Who was ranked in the top 10 in the pre season?
Who didn't even get any votes in the pre season.

It appears the national perception is quite contradictory to that of the Seattle natives. They seem to believe it is still October.

sittingon50
02-16-2010, 08:16 PM
It's not just the folks on this board, fellas. It's every talking head out there that dismisses the huskies.

Jedster
02-16-2010, 08:49 PM
See this is where you are incorrect. People need to learn key things w hen looking at teams on the bubble and making the dance. Even ESPN see's this, despite saying we are about dead, they included us in the bubble watch for the first time this year because we keep winning.
UW 17-8 (7-6) 1-6 road
RPI currently UW is at 53
SOS UW at 43
Last 10 7-3
The key # for UW will be 23, if they can ge tto 23 wins they are a lock
Now UW should win their next 5 games but they can afford 1 slip up on the road, if they make the conference tourney finals. That would put them at
22-8 (12-6) 4-6 on the road
RPI forecasts out to low 40's high 30's depends on what other teams do (3 road games really helps out
SOS prolly stay right around the same
Last 10 9-1 UW would actually finish the regular season at 10-1 last 11 games. The committee absolutely loves teams that's finish strong, this would be the biggest + for UW to make it.
UW would just need to win 1 game in the conference tourney to be a lock.

Anyways this all goes out the window if we lose at home this week or lose more than once to end the year...


Curious Dawgfather...Seems you hang your hat on their tourney chance by getting to 23 wins? I'm curious if you think that St. Mary's is a tourney team, because looking at them, they have 21 wins now, should win their next 3, and probably one on the conference tourney. That puts them at 25 wins. Two more than UW. Their RPI is currently 46, though have only a 108 SOS, but more road wins and will finish the conference strong with a 9-2 record and a 9-3 road record. These are all same arguments you use to say the Dawgs will make it, though most people figure the only way SMC gets in is to win the conference tourney. It can't just be SOS that keeps them out?

cscz28
02-16-2010, 09:13 PM
As for the Zags, can't help but wish we had that USF game back. Little doubt in my mind we'd end up as a 3 if we won that. Just have to take care of business, win the next 7 games and hope some teams around us on the S curve lose a couple. A 3 seed is the goal, and I'd love our chances in March with one.

Would we have beaten portland memphis and st marys afterwards if we hadn't had that wake up call at USF though? With the way the guys were playing before that game I think a loss was inevitable, it was no abberation that we lost that game. I'm just glad they were able to bounce back the way they did and get back to playing tough basketball. No time for shoulda coulda woulda.

MDABE80
02-16-2010, 09:41 PM
No...we might have faltered again. It meant a lot to get beat by a middlin group. Coaches thendecided to put defense on the minds of the kids. Clamp down, dirty, hands on, stops at all costs defense...or else you sit. Matt got it as did the other chillins on the team. The whole approach changed once the kids understood that stops equalled more points on the other side of the ball. And so it happened...and it was witnessed....(gettin biblical as the Easter season approaches)...Abraham watched and will testify......! ! ! ...The joys of defense cannot be understood till you go play it.. Say it! Say it again!!

dawgfather11
02-16-2010, 10:17 PM
Curious Dawgfather...Seems you hang your hat on their tourney chance by getting to 23 wins? I'm curious if you think that St. Mary's is a tourney team, because looking at them, they have 21 wins now, should win their next 3, and probably one on the conference tourney. That puts them at 25 wins. Two more than UW. Their RPI is currently 46, though have only a 108 SOS, but more road wins and will finish the conference strong with a 9-2 record and a 9-3 road record. These are all same arguments you use to say the Dawgs will make it, though most people figure the only way SMC gets in is to win the conference tourney. It can't just be SOS that keeps them out?

I don't think St mary's is a tourney team, although I think they could have possibly squeeked in if they had beat portland.
Couple things, St Mary's best win is either San Diego State or Utah State and neither of those are what anyone would call a marquee win. St mary's has 3 games left all against teams with RPI higher than 200 which will mean their RPI will most likely drop below 50. By my count St mary's will play 15 teams this year with an RPI of 200 or lower, that's what's costing them the dance, that and a Gonzaga win to hang their hat on they will be left out of the dance unless they upset GU in Vegas

kitzbuel
02-17-2010, 06:03 AM
Would we have beaten portland memphis and st marys afterwards if we hadn't had that wake up call at USF though? With the way the guys were playing before that game I think a loss was inevitable, it was no abberation that we lost that game. I'm just glad they were able to bounce back the way they did and get back to playing tough basketball. No time for shoulda coulda woulda.

I would rather have the Wake game back than the USF game.

GoZags
02-17-2010, 06:28 AM
I would rather have the Wake game back than the USF game.

Bigtime.

Jedster
02-17-2010, 08:29 AM
Couple things, St Mary's best win is either San Diego State or Utah State and neither of those are what anyone would call a marquee win. St mary's has 3 games left all against teams with RPI higher than 200 which will mean their RPI will most likely drop below 50. By my count St mary's will play 15 teams this year with an RPI of 200 or lower, that's what's costing them the dance, that and a Gonzaga win to hang their hat on they will be left out of the dance unless they upset GU in Vegas

Don't get me wrong, because I too think it's a long shot that SMC gets in, but I think the issue is you saying UW is a lock to get in if they get to 23 wins. My point with SMC is that for every hole you can poke in their record/opponents, the same can be said for UW.

Both teams are .500 against RPI top 100 teams (5-5 SMC and 6-6 UW). UW's two top RPI wins are Texas A & M (#23) and Cal (#18), both at home. They didn't beat another top 100 RPI team with an RPI higher than 64. They've had 6 opportunities to play and beat top 100 RPI teams on the road or at a neutral site and are 0-6. SMC's top two RPI wins are against Utah St (#43) and SDSU (#41), with the victory against Utah St. on the road (they were 2-3 against top 100 RPI on the road). If you want to give a nod to UW because of their two higher RPI victories, that is fine, however, you have to give credit to SMC for their road wins against the top 100.

Conversely, SMC is 15-0 against RPI teams 101 and higher while the UW is 11-2. Yes, SMC does play a number of teams that are higher than 200 in RPI, and will the rest of the way, which will drop their RPI. However, UW, besides USC at #85, has the remaining 4 opponents with RPI's between 118 and 183 (with 3 of them on the road), not exactly a powerhouse schedule, and there will be a drop in their RPI. UW gets hurt here because their two losses are to the #131 team and #157 team (Oregon at home!). Sure SMC has more opponents with lower RPI, but they do take care of business.

Again, I'm not trying to make an argument that SMC should be in the tourney as I think it's a long shot. I am just taking exception to your statement that UW will be a lock if they win their remaining games. For every argument you make in favor of them, there is one that pokes a hole in them, especially if you compare them to SMC and state they aren't a tourney team. UW's inability to win on the road, regardless of if they win out the rest of the way, is going to kill them.

7ICoug
02-17-2010, 08:49 AM
Not at all likely that St. Marys would be at the same site as Gonzaga unless its an entirely different bracket. They just don't do that.

Sometimes the same site has two different brackets so that is possible.


Lundardi has St. Mary's among the last 4 in; also playing in Spokane with the Zags. Interesting choice since the general consensus among most people is that they are out after that loss to Portland.

I really hope we can somehow steal a 3 seed; it would be much better to see a 2 seed in the sweet 16 than a 1. Those top 4 teams seem to be a cut above the rest.

maynard g krebs
02-17-2010, 12:36 PM
Can anyone explain the reason for the redundant use of both rpi AND sos in these discussions? I know the talking heads do it too, but 75% of rpi IS sos.
Therefore, to use sos in addition to rpi makes no sense to me. If an rpi is high, it is because sos has ALREADY been factored in, and heavily.

Am I missing something?

dawgfather11
02-17-2010, 01:04 PM
Don't get me wrong, because I too think it's a long shot that SMC gets in, but I think the issue is you saying UW is a lock to get in if they get to 23 wins. My point with SMC is that for every hole you can poke in their record/opponents, the same can be said for UW.

Both teams are .500 against RPI top 100 teams (5-5 SMC and 6-6 UW). UW's two top RPI wins are Texas A & M (#23) and Cal (#18), both at home. They didn't beat another top 100 RPI team with an RPI higher than 64. They've had 6 opportunities to play and beat top 100 RPI teams on the road or at a neutral site and are 0-6. SMC's top two RPI wins are against Utah St (#43) and SDSU (#41), with the victory against Utah St. on the road (they were 2-3 against top 100 RPI on the road). If you want to give a nod to UW because of their two higher RPI victories, that is fine, however, you have to give credit to SMC for their road wins against the top 100.

Conversely, SMC is 15-0 against RPI teams 101 and higher while the UW is 11-2. Yes, SMC does play a number of teams that are higher than 200 in RPI, and will the rest of the way, which will drop their RPI. However, UW, besides USC at #85, has the remaining 4 opponents with RPI's between 118 and 183 (with 3 of them on the road), not exactly a powerhouse schedule, and there will be a drop in their RPI. UW gets hurt here because their two losses are to the #131 team and #157 team (Oregon at home!). Sure SMC has more opponents with lower RPI, but they do take care of business.

Again, I'm not trying to make an argument that SMC should be in the tourney as I think it's a long shot. I am just taking exception to your statement that UW will be a lock if they win their remaining games. For every argument you make in favor of them, there is one that pokes a hole in them, especially if you compare them to SMC and state they aren't a tourney team. UW's inability to win on the road, regardless of if they win out the rest of the way, is going to kill them.

Good discussion and I enjoy these.

My main point I guess and it seems you are missing is that's Saint mary's profile is pretty much set it's not going to improve barring a win over GU and that would only happen in the championship game of the conference tourney which gets them in automatically. The only thing actually keeping them even in the bubble discussion at this point is the pretty good road record (8-2) that being said if you look at their road record which should finish at 9-2 6 of those road wins are again against 200+ RPI competition which yes is a factor albeit a small factor. Just running the numbers the average RPI for road games is 167 for st mary's and 105 for UW.

Now on to UW's profile, which already is sitting better than St mary's with RPI pretty much the same and a much better sos, has a chance to improve with 1 game against a >100 rpi opponent and 3 games on the road which weigh pretty well in the RPI formula. UW 6-6 against top 100 2-2 against top 25 St mary's 5-5 against top 100 but 0-3 against top 25.

All in all it's a whole lot of numbers and what if's but it basically comes down to UW's profile is improving, where as st mary's is declining.

WallaWallaZag
02-17-2010, 01:43 PM
And Wisconsin? Fourth best big 10 team and we beat them at full strength on a neutral court!


not sure how much the committee looks at head-to-head matchups...but i know big time wins are looked on very favorably and we don't have any outside of wisconsin. cinci and memphis, despite the athletes on those teams are both likely to miss the tournament. if illinois isn't careful they might be out as well, which would leave wisky as the only tournament team that we've beaten. wisky on the other hand has beaten duke, msu, ohio state, and purdue...though i believe all were at home (also w's over bubble teams marquette & maryland).

kyle dixon
02-17-2010, 01:50 PM
I love this time of year. How many bids does the Big Ten get? Will the Pac-10 be held to one bid this year? The Big 6 conferences just hope that the Gonzaga's, Butler's, and Northern Iowa's take care of business in their conference tournaments or the NIT becomes their post season tournament......

BobZag
02-17-2010, 02:16 PM
I actually like the NIT (if you're a 1 seed), but I've said that before. I like the format.

Jedster
02-17-2010, 02:49 PM
Good discussion and I enjoy these.

My main point I guess and it seems you are missing is that's Saint mary's profile is pretty much set it's not going to improve barring a win over GU and that would only happen in the championship game of the conference tourney which gets them in automatically. The only thing actually keeping them even in the bubble discussion at this point is the pretty good road record (8-2) that being said if you look at their road record which should finish at 9-2 6 of those road wins are again against 200+ RPI competition which yes is a factor albeit a small factor. Just running the numbers the average RPI for road games is 167 for st mary's and 105 for UW.

Now on to UW's profile, which already is sitting better than St mary's with RPI pretty much the same and a much better sos, has a chance to improve with 1 game against a >100 rpi opponent and 3 games on the road which weigh pretty well in the RPI formula. UW 6-6 against top 100 2-2 against top 25 St mary's 5-5 against top 100 but 0-3 against top 25.

All in all it's a whole lot of numbers and what if's but it basically comes down to UW's profile is improving, where as st mary's is declining.


I guess I'd say that where we differ is I don't think UW can do much either to improve their RPI or resume. Sure they play on the road 3 more times, but look at the RPI of their opponents. They play USC (#84) and UCLA (#132) at home and then on the road against WSU (#118), Oregon (159) and Oregon St. (182). Their road record can at most improve to 4-7, but I don't think winning out against these teams will do much to improve their tourney chances.

While looking at losses, the one thing I neglected to mention in my previous post is that SMC hasn't lost to a team with an RPI below 84. Three of their four other losses were to RPI teams above 20. UW on the other hand has 4 losses against 84 and lower RPI teams (USC is the common loss).

IMO, I don't see UW getting into the tourney unless they either win the conference tournament, or play in the final game.