View Full Version : Mock NCAA selections

U Zig, I Zag
02-11-2010, 02:51 PM
Noticed a few media guys Twittering(?) about this today. NCAA has an official blog on it. Few (ahem) interesting things:

2:06 - Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com mentioned that a team's record over the last 12 games is no longer one of the stats that appears on each team sheet. The committee is stressing a team's entire body of work throughout the season. They refer to the computer application that contains all the information as the "Nitty Gritty".

Maybe GU's earlier wins will mean more since a few of our former foes have come on stronger or had big wins early and then later with a lull in-between. WF and Illinois seem to be rising.

3:55 - The media members have reached a consensus on 19 teams. Those 19 teams are in the tournament, Combined with the 12 pre-existing automatic qualifiers, we now have 31 teams in the tournament. The members will now have to choose 15 teams from the group of "possibles". There are 53 teams in that group. Let the debating begin.

The 19 consensus team are: BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Michigan State, New Mexico, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Syracuse, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt, Villanova, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

I guess GU is in the automatic qualifier group?

02-11-2010, 02:54 PM
I guess GU is in the automatic qualifier group?
Doubt it. SMC is technically alone in 1st place right now. GU is most likely just outside that group of 19. Which means that GU is right around the 5 or 6 seed level as of today.

02-11-2010, 04:34 PM
In the past few years, those Mock Selections (where the committee is made up of media types) have produced some pretty good articles with loads of insight. Keep your eyes open over the the next week.

They also throw different situations at the "Committee" ~ such as Gonzaga loses all remaining games - are they in, or out? or Oregon State wins the Pac-10 Tourny - any at-large bids?

02-12-2010, 09:39 AM
This is very interesting stuff. Just finished reading J Palm's tweets - http://twitter.com/jppalm

I recommend starting at his first entry on 2/11 and reading all of them.

Here's a few of interest.

I'm happy to hear this, even though it may work against GU this year:

A possibly little-known fact: The committee explicitly *does* look at Pomeroy Ratings as one of its tools. Tempo-free heads, rest easy. about 23 hours ago (http://twitter.com/eamonnbrennan/status/8973996280)

The NCAA picks the auto-bids in such a way to create certain discussions during this exercise. In this GU won the WCC-Vegas. And last night's stomping doesn't play into what their doing...

Using data thru 2/10-"likely to finish" not a factor RT @jonathanganz (http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/jonathanganz): VT is likely to finish 9-7 or > in ACC. How do you keep them out? about 3 hours ago (http://twitter.com/jppalm/status/9013890251)

About what I expected. Assuming they only lose to GU in the Vegas final, they'll probably be one of the last in/out & it will most likely depend on how many party crashers get in w/ an auto bid.

Our last three in: St. Mary's, Charlotte, USF. Waiting in the wings: Florida. SOL: UAB, UTEP, SIena, Cal. Gators hoping Duke wins ACC. about 3 hours ago (http://twitter.com/jppalm/status/9012652114)

By the rules, they can get Spokane with a 5. Still TBD where this group sends them.

5-seeds: Wake, Pitt, Gonzaga, BYU about 2 hours ago (http://twitter.com/jppalm/status/9015105259)

There are plenty of other twits out there tweeting about this event on twitter, but Palm has the most by far, so if you only read one person, he's the guy.

02-12-2010, 09:45 AM
here's one more palmtweet -

Seed update, again filled in by NCAA staff: 8-URI, UNI, Marq, Ill 9-Clem, Ok St, FSU, Mizz 10-Miss, MD, ST. Mary, X about 2 hours ago (http://twitter.com/jppalm/status/9016337452)

Other places to read about this -

ESPN CBB Blog, Day 1 Recap (http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/3753/first-day-notes-from-the-ncaas-mock-selection-committee)

Official NCAA Blog (http://www.ncaa.com/blog/200910d1mensbasketball/) (scroll down a bit for the Day 1 blog & then read up the page)

Official NCAA Doc used in this exercise & during the actual selection: NCAA DIVISION I MEN’S BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP
PRINCIPLES AND PROCEDURES FOR ESTABLISHING THE BRACKET (http://www.ncaa.com/graphics/champpage/Bracket_Prin-Proc_2009-10_07.07.09.pdf) (pdf)

02-12-2010, 09:50 AM
PAC-10 just got 1 team (AZ - their tourney winner). As shown above, their best at-large chance, Cal, just missed making it.

02-12-2010, 03:13 PM
The Mock bracket is done:


GU is a 5 seed in Spokane/Houston
SMC is a 11 seed in Ok City/Salt Lake

More info (videos, full 65 list, blogs, etc) here - http://www.ncaa.com/blog/200910d1mensbasketball/

02-13-2010, 08:21 AM
It looks like this does leave some margin for more than one CAA team since they just plugged in the CAA team with the best record (ODU), not the one leading the conference (Northeastern).

However, I would have a hard time with Illinois getting in over Northeastern, Wm & Mary or VCU. The CAA is pretty good this year and it looks like they might get penalized for it.