PDA

View Full Version : Interesting, but disturbing, statistics



VinnyZag
02-02-2010, 07:29 PM
Basketall Prospectus today posted a rundown of efficiency statistics for 11 conferences, including the WCC. You can find it here: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=894

Their analysis is based on efficiency margin. Basically they figure out how many points per possession a given team scores and how many points per possession a given team allows, then calculate the difference. Here's how the top three teams in the WCC stack up:

W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Portland 5-2 64.4 1.15 0.94 +0.21
2. Saint Mary’s 6-1 67.8 1.19 1.03 +0.16
3. Gonzaga 6-1 69.3 1.14 1.03 +0.11


These numbers are for league games only, and they are pretty surprising. Portland's defense grades out better than I thought, for one thing. And GU is worse across the board than I would have expected.

Just thought it was an interesting look at the three teams.

seasontixholder
02-02-2010, 07:32 PM
Are those stats colored by the quality of the opposition, or where certain games have been played? If so, I can't get disturbed.

adoptedzag
02-02-2010, 08:20 PM
Are those stats colored by the quality of the opposition, or where certain games have been played? If so, I can't get disturbed.

You should read the entirety of the post :) They're for league games only, so its an even comparison.

jake
02-02-2010, 08:57 PM
You should read the entirety of the post :) They're for league games only, so its an even comparison.

Except, the home/away schedule is not the same. Obviously Portland has common home/away as us for 6 of those games. St. Mary's got the other two best teams at home the first time around and had 5 of their 7 league games at home, while we had 5 of our 7 on the road. I think it's an interesting analysis, but it's not a completely even comparison.

U Zig, I Zag
02-02-2010, 11:04 PM
Except, the home/away schedule is not the same. Obviously Portland has common home/away as us for 6 of those games. St. Mary's got the other two best teams at home the first time around and had 5 of their 7 league games at home, while we had 5 of our 7 on the road. I think it's an interesting analysis, but it's not a completely even comparison.

Reading comprehension burn followed by a math burn!!! This place is out of control! :D

Interesting information, nonetheless. GU needs to get the lead out on thursday...

tightface
02-03-2010, 09:16 AM
Not all that surprising. When you play in close games, these numbers will reflect that. If you are getting a lot of stops on D and holding opposing teams to less than 40% shooting the PPS numbers lean more in your favor. Portland has blown some teams out of the water which has helped their offensive and defensive numbers on both sides, raising their margins.

Basically, what it boils down to is putting teams away and keeping your foot on the gas. We haven't done that.

Ezag
02-03-2010, 10:08 AM
Damn we suck! :p

titopoet
02-03-2010, 11:56 AM
Proves the old Basketball belief that they have not come up with numbers that capture the game. The best number so far:

GU 81
@Port 78

GU 89
@SMC 81

Hard to argue with those stats.