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75Zag
01-29-2010, 08:22 AM
Might be the gallon of coffee I just drank, but I am getting a bit nervous re: GU's chances of playing in Spokane as a 4 or 5 seed. As expected, our RPI and KenPom rankings are falling like a rock due to WCC opponent rankings. Bracketology has us down to the 5 seed in Spokane, and we still have to play Memphis @ Memphis before the regular season is over. I have a feeling that the margin of error for the Bulldogs to be seeded into Spokane is very slim indeed.

What is the consensus of the BB gurus? If GU wins out the WCC and loses to Memphis, is GU still a lock for the Spokane sub-regional? Should the prudent GU fan pick up a set of San Jose subregional tickets as a fallback position? Or am I being paranoid?

Go Bulldogs! Get Bigger!

adoptedzag
01-29-2010, 08:24 AM
Mitch in the morning just had Seth Davis on and he seemed to think that as long as we handle business in the WCC we should get a 3 or a 4, but that a 3 would be our ceiling.

kdaleb
01-29-2010, 08:55 AM
I think as long as we finish with 5 or fewer losses, we'll be in Spokane as a 3, 4, or 5.

kdaleb's estimates of the likelihood of playing in Spokane
3 losses - 100%
4 losses - 99.5%
5 losses - 85%
6 losses - ~50%

NovaZag
01-29-2010, 09:00 AM
Someone asked Lunardi during one of the ESPN chat sessions about GU hypothetically winning out and Lunardi expected we would get a 2 or 3 seed if that was the case.

Much of it is riding on how well Wisconsin, Illinois, and Cincy perform. Right now Wisconsin is the only sure NCAA tournament team we've beaten.

BYU, Temple, and Tennessee all lost this week, which helps our cause.

Colbyspapa
01-29-2010, 09:02 AM
A 5 seed is not a protected seed. If we are any lower than a 4, we will not be in Spokane. They only protect the first four seeds.

Therefore, we need to win out. I don't see us going any higher than a 4 this year even if we win out. We have been dealing with this for 10 years and it is very clear how the selection committee values RPI when it comes to seeding. They call it "where you fall on the S curve". The only year we were higher, our only two losses leading into the tourney were to the #1 and #2 teams in the nation. This year, we don't have that with Wake Forest falling like a rock and Duke losing to teams they shouldn't lose to.

Plus the WCC is falling off after a strong start.

I'm not trying to be negative, but we have gotten our hopes up again and again. A 3 seed would be ideal because we would be in the side of the bracket with the 2 seed not the 1.

former1dog
01-29-2010, 09:02 AM
I think winning out guarantees a protected seed and playing in Spokane.... Anything less than winning out, I'd say 50/50 chance AT BEST of staying in spokane.

Portland, Memphis and St. Mary's are definitely going to want to kick our asses, so we better stay focused. Not to mention that LA swing is probably going to be tougher than we all expected it to be.

Just win baby!

Schmitty
01-29-2010, 09:17 AM
I dont think theres a snowballs chance in Hades that the Zags play in Spokane. WAY to much of an advantage for them, and the NCAA comittee knows it. 1 seed, 2 seed, 10 seed, I dont think it matters.. SLC yes, Spokompton, no way.

former1dog
01-29-2010, 09:20 AM
I dont think theres a snowballs chance in Hades that the Zags play in Spokane. WAY to much of an advantage for them, and the NCAA comittee knows it. 1 seed, 2 seed, 10 seed, I dont think it matters.. SLC yes, Spokompton, no way.

SLC is host to the Western regional finals, so no teams will be playing there the first weekend of the NCAA tourney.

Salsageek
01-29-2010, 09:27 AM
I am not so sure about that. I've read that Seed 1-5 are protected in this new pod system. Can someone confirm this? I can't seem to find that article from last year.



A 5 seed is not a protected seed. If we are any lower than a 4, we will not be in Spokane. They only protect the first four seeds.

Therefore, we need to win out. I don't see us going any higher than a 4 this year even if we win out. We have been dealing with this for 10 years and it is very clear how the selection committee values RPI when it comes to seeding. They call it "where you fall on the S curve". The only year we were higher, our only two losses leading into the tourney were to the #1 and #2 teams in the nation. This year, we don't have that with Wake Forest falling like a rock and Duke losing to teams they shouldn't lose to.

Plus the WCC is falling off after a strong start.

I'm not trying to be negative, but we have gotten our hopes up again and again. A 3 seed would be ideal because we would be in the side of the bracket with the 2 seed not the 1.

Schmitty
01-29-2010, 09:27 AM
SLC is host to the Western regional finals, so no teams will be playing there the first weekend of the NCAA tourney.

Sorry, meant SJC, as in San Jose. Hope the Zags end up in SLC too!

titopoet
01-29-2010, 09:34 AM
I think winning out guarantees a protected seed and playing in Spokane.... Anything less than winning out, I'd say 50/50 chance AT BEST of staying in spokane.

Portland, Memphis and St. Mary's are definitely going to want to kick our asses, so we better stay focused. Not to mention that LA swing is probably going to be tougher than we all expected it to be.

Just win baby!

I think this true. UTEP went in and took out Memphis, so there is no reason to fear Memphis this year. ( Yeah, my alma mater) They, too, sill will be desperate as they need a signature win to make an atlarge case. Right now they are on the outside looking in. I think the best thing the Zags can do is adopt a win or out mentality. They control their own future.

NotoriousZ
01-29-2010, 09:37 AM
I still contend that if we do indeed run the table, we should get a 2 seed. I think there are maybe 3 teams that are looking good for a 1 seed, but after that there's more parity this year. Having a 27-3 record with an ambitious OOC schedule and a huge winning streak coming into the tourney would look very, very good to the selection committee.

Do I think it will happen? I'd put our chances at no better than 40%. We SHOULD win the rest, but as we saw last night, we will continue to get every team's best shot. The game in Memphis is looming, and we still have SMC and Portland one more time, and probably SMC in the titile game of the WCC tourney. Staying focussed for another month (for the whole time) with a bull's-eye on our backs will not be an easy task.

If we do lose just one of these games, we're probably a 4-5 seed, and if we're a 5 there's a chance we will not get the Spokane regional. So now I'm yelling at the t.v. much more than usual (I think it's working).

lothar98zag
01-29-2010, 09:45 AM
I dont think theres a snowballs chance in Hades that the Zags play in Spokane. WAY to much of an advantage for them, and the NCAA comittee knows it. 1 seed, 2 seed, 10 seed, I dont think it matters.. SLC yes, Spokompton, no way.
It's happened in the past and it could happen this year.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/budwithers/2010786667_withers14.html


...Villanova, about five miles from the Wachovia Center, did it in 2006 and 2009, both times winning twice.
In 2002, Pitt made the 2.5-mile trek from campus down to Mellon Arena in Pittsburgh, where it also won two...

77Zag
01-29-2010, 10:09 AM
I would love to see the Zags play in Spokane, but...

Couldn't get any tix for Spokane, but...

I have eight in the bag for San Jose -- just in case :D

sittingon50
01-29-2010, 10:11 AM
last night with about 13 minutes to go, seeding in Spokane wasn't lookin' too good. It's a fine line from here on out, folks.

ZagManFan
01-29-2010, 10:14 AM
Zags in Spokane. BOOK IT!!!!!

I don't think there is a chance in hell we DON'T play in Spokane barring a collapse. Run the table in WCC and even a loss to Memphis will not keep us out of Spokane.

007Zag
01-29-2010, 10:33 AM
Agreed, ZMF. I'm just not as confident that the Zags will run the table in the WCC this year as I was after that UP/SMC/USD swing.

When the season began I was really excited because I felt like every win, even in conference would be up in the air. I would be happy with however this team delivered because my expectations were low.

Now I'm really upset, because the Zags were awesome early in the season and made me confident. Now I'm upset that I have high expectations because we've played so well.

Just kidding; I'm not really that upset. Not at all :D

kdaleb
01-29-2010, 10:51 AM
A 5 seed is not a protected seed. If we are any lower than a 4, we will not be in Spokane. They only protect the first four seeds.

Seeds 1-5 are protected from a hostile floor _in the first round only_

Seeds 1-4 are given consideration in trying to get them first round games as close to home as possible.

However, given that there are soooo many craptacular teams in the west this year, unless the Zags end up with a 3 seed (or a 2? that'd be crazy), both Spokane-based pods will have 4 seeds as the top team. If the Zags end up with a 5 seed, they have a better-than-even chance of being paired with a 4 seed playing in Spokane.

B Wayne
01-29-2010, 11:32 AM
Sorry, meant SJC, as in San Jose. Hope the Zags end up in SLC too!

Hmm, then what would the "C" stand for in San Jose?

CDC84
01-29-2010, 11:44 AM
The key is taking care of business in the WCC.

The 2003/04 Zags only had one top 50 RPI win, but they got a 2 seed out west. They only had two losses, and both were to one seeds (Stanford, St. Joe's). They entered the tourney with a huge winning streak. The committee likes this sort of thing.

If the Zags are a 3 or a 4, they will get Spokane. However, I do feel the NCAA committee should outlaw this sort of thing. I don't think teams should be able to play THAT close to campus. But as long as the committee allows it to occur, the Zags have no reason to apologize for it.

kdaleb
01-29-2010, 11:55 AM
Hmm, then what would the "C" stand for in San Jose?

In his defense, SJC is the San Jose airport code:
http://www.sjc.org/

1973Zag
01-29-2010, 02:07 PM
right now I'l take a 1 seed in the WCC tourney.