PDA

View Full Version : Vegas Opening Line: USD/GU



Angelo Roncalli
01-15-2010, 12:31 PM
Zags -6.5

Really?

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

zagsfanforlife
01-15-2010, 12:32 PM
I love being just handed money. Get a little tease on that bad boy and we are set

ShutupTheSamhan
01-15-2010, 12:41 PM
Wow, If I could figure out how to gamble online I'd bet my entire checking account on the over.

El Voce
01-15-2010, 01:31 PM
Wow! Even with USD's slow pace, that sounds low.

BobZag
01-15-2010, 01:37 PM
This has Trap Game written all over it. I can feel it,

ZagMan in Philly
01-15-2010, 02:28 PM
Our team will not lose focus on this game, we will roll to a double digits win.

zagsfanforlife
01-15-2010, 02:41 PM
Whats the over under?

gamagin
01-15-2010, 02:57 PM
Wow! Even with USD's slow pace, that sounds low.

there exists now a small window of opportunity for betting with the Zags, imo. One that will likely close soon or go cattywampus from exposure.

The only worry I have with betting this one is it seems like our coach hasn't seemed interested before in running USD (read his dearest friend, best man at his wedding, godfather etc etc etc) out of any gym.

Otherwise, I'd bet the farm on this one. We should crush them and 6.5 pts seems like a breeze if we take care of business.

However, that said, I'm not sure our highly skilled, reasonably deep, hungry, aggressive and disinterested (in terms of loyalty to Grier) bench could give a hoot about the Few-Grier relationship.

They are competing for minutes and honing their skills under the lights for the opportunity to mature, shine & play more.

If indeed, an inferior team can hold us back for 40 minutes, shut us down, if you will, for most of a game, take us mostly away from what we do best, well, then they deserve whatever they can muster for a score, and perhaps, even a win.

fwiw, this kind of thinking, and a careless disregard for the farm, is exactly why there are so many tall buildings in Vegas.

Go TEAM Zags !

El Voce
01-15-2010, 03:02 PM
This has Trap Game written all over it. I can feel it,

Bob - As you know, I quite often agree with you about trap games. However, I just don't see it happening this time. Simply put, I don't think USD has the horses to trap us.

Basketball is a lot about confidence. Right now, GU has a ton of it, and the Toreros have none, having come off two straight losses. I think playing for Billy can be grinding in the best of circumstances, and really become a chore when things are going badly. There is a history there of serious disciplinary actions each season. I doubt the crowd will be much of a factor, as they will not be showing up expecting the home team to win.

I think tomorrow we will see more of Arop, Kong, and Kelly on offense, as the Zags will probably have to shoot and run USD out of their slowdown game. It will probably be an ugly game, as Grier tries to keep the score down, but I don't think it will be a close game. If I were in Vegas, I would give the 6.5 points in a heartbeat.

FuManShoes
01-15-2010, 03:04 PM
I've had luck the last two games (using bodog.com), but I will not be touching this one. USD likes to grind it, making a 6-point spread feel like 10. This one makes me uncomfortable. If it was 3 or 4 I'd feel better. The Zags were up 13 last night and that got down to 4 before all was said and done. The Zags eeked it out against Portland despite leading throughout. It's a crazy game. Too crazy.

NotoriousZ
01-15-2010, 03:30 PM
This has Trap Game written all over it. I can feel it,

The Greir factor would keep me from betting this one. I'd wager they make a late run and beat the spread, but hopefully we still win.

Hopefully we're not doomed.

ZagMan in Philly
01-15-2010, 03:31 PM
More chances of us covering the 6.5 than not.
i like the 6.5, the over/under usually doesn't come out until game day.

This road trip would be a disappointment if we lose this game, our coaches will not let the players lose focus. We roll!

TheZagPhish
01-15-2010, 06:16 PM
Harris is having too much fun for the Zags to lose! We punch 'em in the mouth and make them play at our speed.

Toreros - 67
Zags - 74

EDIT:
Hey, I think this is on the wrong thread.

RenoZag
01-15-2010, 06:31 PM
It's all good. I need to find a sports book and place a minor wager. . .

bartruff1
01-15-2010, 06:59 PM
Whats the over under?.. I owned a farm once...then there was Portland State....

RenoZag
01-15-2010, 07:41 PM
As of ten minutes ago:

Zags were -$110 and giving 7 points
FWIW:

USF & Pepperdine "PICK EM"
SMC - 8.5 over PORT

bartruff1
01-15-2010, 07:49 PM
Are you going to bet it Reno ?? I wonder if the Vegas guys know about the troubles at SD....we are improving and they appear to be in a very rough patch...even 7 looks pretty light....I guess, I will just watch and enjoy the game...good luck..

RenoZag
01-15-2010, 07:53 PM
My boss is a USD alum; we have a lunch bet on the outcome.

ZagMan in Philly
01-16-2010, 04:18 AM
My boss is a USD alum; we have a lunch bet on the outcome.

pick out an expensive place, cus you will win.

zags line is up to -7.5, over/under 139.5

Rangerzag
01-16-2010, 04:44 AM
My boss is a USD alum; we have a lunch bet on the outcome.

Sounds like a generous guy ;)

bartruff1
01-16-2010, 04:50 AM
My boss is a USD alum; we have a lunch bet on the outcome.Great fun...be nice...

RenoZag
01-16-2010, 05:10 AM
No need. In the history of these friendly wagers, the Zags haven't covered (or they lost :( ) so I've paid my share of the lunch tabs. . .

DZ
01-16-2010, 05:48 AM
Agree with BZ often, but I am with El Voce on this one. Everyone knows what that a trap game is one that is overlooked b/c of a big one before or upcoming, but:

The Staff have been talking about what a daunting challenge it is to start out conference play with three road games against the other top ranked teams in the conference. But it was also seen as a HUGE opportunity. It was ALWAYS about each game at a time and losing one would ruin the goal of starting 3-0. I think the team will take this game very seriously, b/c it is like the "championship" game in the sense that they had 3 games, and each win allowed them to progress further. I would be more worried if we lost in Moraga and I am more worried about a flat performance the next home game, though I don't think they would lose.

Zagpower
01-16-2010, 07:33 AM
.. I owned a farm once...then there was Portland State....


I know you're just kidding and that you know this, but that's why you never bet everything on a single game.
You have to get about 53-54% correct in order to come out ahead n the long run,hardly an impossibility if you are disciplined.

But who cares if you get 45%? It's fun, it might cost a little but so does every form of entertainment. At least in this case, you could win money....try doing that going out to dinner or to the movies.



Lastly it's not the guys in Vegas. It is the betting public of which 90% are NOT professionals but regular sports fans just like us. The question that should be asked is does the average college basketball bettor, located worldwide, know about the troubles in San Diego?

My guess in no.


Remeber Vegas makes their money by getting 50% of all bets placed on each side of the game removing their risk. They keep moving the lines in order to entice bettors one way or the other. The public has already moved the line one full point and I wouldn't be surprised to watch it go up throughout the day. It is now amateur sports fans like us that are setting the line.

That's who we are competing against...not Vegas professionals.:D

bartruff1
01-16-2010, 07:50 AM
I just bet for fun....except in the markets ( that is how I keep the refrig and the garage full ) ....those Vegas guys do have a heart though, they let me keep the bell ewe...

Das Zagger
01-16-2010, 08:43 AM
Over their last 5, SD hasn't been playing great but with GU giving 6.5, in a locale (both the Slim Gym and the high school gym USD had) they they haven't been too solid in, I'd be wary.

UP getting 8.5 at SMC is a better bet.

RenoZag
01-16-2010, 07:33 PM
Zags Win ( and they cover ! )

Zagpower
01-17-2010, 06:42 AM
I just bet for fun....except in the markets ( that is how I keep the refrig and the garage full ) ....those Vegas guys do have a heart though, they let me keep the bell ewe...

I hear ya. Unfortunately, I seem better at picking college games than I do stocks. :mecry: