Seth Davis Stock Watch

[CDC84]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/seth_davis/01/04/stock.report/index.html

Gonzaga (11-3, No. 19): HOLD

Imagine if Syracuse began Big East play with consecutive road dates at UConn, Georgetown and West Virginia. Or if Kansas started off at Texas, Kansas State and Texas A&M. That's what is now facing the Zags, who in a 10-day span have to play at Portland, at Saint Mary's and at San Diego -- which, combined with their game at Illinois last weekend, puts the Zags into a stretch where they have to play six out of eight games on the road. I imagine they will win enough games to stay in the top 25, but it is treacherous terrain for a team that is getting such meager contributions from its bench. Gonzaga is not quite as talented as it has been the last few years, but it is mentally tougher. That dimension will be severely tested the next few weeks.

FWIW - I disagree about Davis' views on Gonzaga's bench. The bench is getting better and better as the season moves along. The starter's minutes are starting to go down, and it's not like the WCC teams are throwing out 10 man rotations either. The bench production is the result of Gonzaga playing an inverted schedule.

[thespywhozaggedme]

Hmmm....gotta disagree with SD on this one. We're getting very good help from our bench in Bol, Kelly and Manny and talent wise, I think we are extremely talented; he appears to be confusing talent with youth.

[a13coach]

I think he merely just looked at the last box score.

[CDC84]

Did Gonzaga have as good of a player last season as Elias Harris?
It sure seems to me that Bouldin is a Wooden Award candidate who is going to do something Pargo, Downs and Heytvelt failed to do....get drafted into the NBA.

I think this ubiquitous notion that Gonzaga is doing all this without as much talent as they usually have...well....how do you measure talent then? I suppose you could say that Gonzaga had more guys last year who could rip off 20 points in a game, but is that all there is when it comes to measuring talent?

Imagine if Syracuse began Big East play with consecutive road dates at UConn, Georgetown and West Virginia. Or if Kansas started off at Texas, Kansas State and Texas A&M. That's what is now facing the Zags, who in a 10-day span have to play at Portland, at Saint Mary's and at San Diego

Look, I am a huge supporter of the WCC, but Portland, St. Mary's and USD are just not as talented and deep as UConn, Georgetown and West Virginia. It's a terrible comparison.

[Drew]

I think he merely just looked at the last box score.

or possible yearly averages.

[FuManShoes]

Illinois wasn't a great game for the bench, with the possible exception of Kelly's work around the rim and his great pass to a back-cutting Gray. Even then, he racked up some really cheap fouls and I have no idea what he was doing with his left hand on that offensive foul -- that looked more egregious than Elias' elbow to Chas.

Bol has been a stud offensively but he was weak with the ball against the Illini and didn't get any looks, though he almost canned that contesetd three before half.

Manny was pretty quiet in that game though he had a few hustle plays.

Will may have been the most solid bench contributor mainly because he did his job and didn't make mistakes. Disrupted a few shots, got some boards/deflections, set some screens. Quiet, but effective.

For the Zags to realize their potential, I do think Manny, Bol and GJ will need to be able to come in and hold their own. Up until Illinois, Bol's progress had been remarkable. I expect he'll be fine.

[TheZagPhish]

Like many others, Seth is panning for a team meme that works right now. The broader media push-themes haven't stuck this season because they simply don't define this complex group; i.e., rebuilding year, down four starters, Bouldin & Gray dominance and so forth.

Harris is a story with national grip, and Bouldin & Gray are delivering largely to expectations. Outside of those, our development has been largely unexpected and / or quiet enough to not be processed to any degree in the press.

So Seth scratches his well coiffed hair, checks the last box and starts tip, tap typing.

[Kiddwell]

It's pretty tough to say this team isn't as talented as last year's when so many Zags are new, young, and/or redshirted. The fact Andy Poling (God bless him) just opted to transfer out due to a lack of playing time (when he had 3 1/2 years to get stronger, savvier, and work himself into the lineup as a junior/senior) shows the Zags are more talented than ever. (I mean this is a kid who was a solid four star most of his HS career, dipped down to a solid three star his senior year...and he's leaving. That fact says a ton about the Zags' depth and talent.)

Seth needs to factor in youth, youth, and more youth in his evaluation of the Zags. Kiddwell, ridiculously or not, thinks this team is more talented than last year's. Yes, it's raw talent and a lot of potential at this point, but this squad is better.

Seth, Kiddwell likes you; but on this one you need to screw your head on straight.

:]

[MDABE80]

Cdc said..."Look, I am a huge supporter of the WCC, but Portland, St. Mary's and USD are just not as talented and deep as UConn, Georgetown and West Virginia. It's a terrible comparison".<----lolol.Davis must be on drugs for this one to be even thinkable.

And we have some very good players this year...ELias is as good or better than any "big" we had last year. You would NEVER see this kid getting ZERO rebounds against anyone...not even UNC!!..

Guards are better even though Jeremy was fearsome....much more than what's left here at the point. Bench is used sparingly...but ususally I think Few used more bench than ever. It's good team in development...it'll get better. Pt St still have great players and St. Mary's is always a handfull...not to worried though. This team's attitude is a nice blend a smashmouth (Elias) and finesse (Matt). Rob needs to come alive like in Hawaii. If that happens, Swt 16 or better is in the cards.

[CaliforniaZaggin']

I think discussing the "talent" level of players is relevant almost exclusively in recruiting. Once players arrive on campus, put on uniforms, and start playing games, the only thing that matters is production, and this group of Zags are producing, without question.

[Nevtelen]

Actually, I think Davis is just echoing Few on the talent thing. In the MF Show a couple of weeks ago, Few said something along the lines of, "Well, we won't out-talent anyone this season, unlike some other GU teams." Or something like that. He was definitely implying that this team isn't as talented as past squads. It made me scratch my head a bit, like most of the rest of you on here, but I'm sure that's what he said and probably where Davis got this.

I also think, based on the spirit of the article, that Davis is off on the Zags as a hold. Even if we drop one in the opening spate of road games (which is quite possible), this team has a ton of wins coming up and, while they won't be great wins for the most part in terms of opponent strength, there will be a lot of them. They'll only go up in the rankings as other teams around them lose.

[bartruff1]

He absoutely nailed it...some of you might disagree and some of you can't read...

[CDC84]

Few

Personally, I think Few feels he's more talented than he's letting on. It's probably not a wise thing to be hyping the team's talent when he has so many young players. Keep 'em hungry. It's a smart move.

The problem with Seth Davis is that he doesn't understand that bench scoring is kind of an overrated statistic. See the past 10 NCAA title games. You are actually more likely win the title if your bench scores less or the same amount as your opposition. Having better players in your starting lineup is better than having 10 players who simply aren't as good as the opposing team's starters.

I think Spy hits it on the head. Some folks can confuse "talent" with "youth." And when you play an inverted schedule like GU does, that "youth" doesn't get to grow up slowly like they do if they play on a BCS team that plays cupcakes at home during the non-league season.

[bballbeachbum]

Did Gonzaga have as good of a player last season as Elias Harris?.

maybe not, and that's saying something

re. talent, I agree w/ CaliforniaZaggin'; producing, as in winning, is what matters once you get here, and so far pretty good

This team is still defining itself game by game and doesn't fit quick-scan deductions. I think what ZagPhish was saying on this fits.

I would argue the coaches are just now getting a handle on the team and its new players, along with the returning players in their new roles, as are the players themselves in their respective new positions, as they all

G R O W together!

On Seth, I like him a lot, even as a Duke alum, but who knows how many of our games he's actually seen this season.

[whatazag]

All year long I feel like people on this board have been undervaluing how much talent last years team had. Heytvelt, Downs, Daye, and Pargo were all extremely talented players. That is why were were expected to have a big drop off this year. It turned out that some of our new guys were more talented than we knew, especially Harris, but I don't think this years team compares to last years in terms of talent (right now, remember, they are young). The big difference is that this team players harder, tougher, and more together as a team than last year. Last year we were able to go undefeated in the WCC purely based on talent. I think there is very little chance we go undefeated this year, but that the team could go just as far in the tourney or further than last years team.