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View Full Version : My colleague, a Dukie says,



siliconzag
12-17-2009, 08:48 AM
I have a colleague who sent me the following e mail in response to mine which put the odds of the Zags winning at 25%. This is what I felt was a realistic probability that our boys would win in MSG with a long road trip, jet lag, finals hang over, the difference in coaching, and the DIF (Duke Intimidation Factor).

He said,

"I would put the odds closer to 50-50. Duke's defense is not what it used to be -- they depend heavily upon switching and backfill, because nearly everyone one of them can be beat off the dribble. Very disciplined defensively, but just not quick enough. They are much better on the boards, and have two young 6'10" guys (the Plumlee brothers) who are the most athletic people on the team; Miles is starting to show evidence he understands how to play inside, his brother (the more talented) is not yet there. Zoubek (7'1") is beginning to become a force inside but very immobile, and with weak hands so he has trouble finishing. The guards can shoot the lights out when open, but none can create their own open shot, and no good penetrators, so they depend upon screens off the ball. Until they develop an offensive threat on the inside which forces other teams to double down, they can be shut down on the perimeter by an athletic team. I think this could go either way."

An interesting perspective from a saavy fan. He gives us hope. I would still break out the rosaries.

Silicon

RenoZag
12-17-2009, 08:52 AM
There's always hope.

cjm720
12-17-2009, 08:58 AM
It's our year to stomp Duke!

Thanks for sharing and go Zags!!!

titopoet
12-17-2009, 09:03 AM
"The guards can shoot the lights out when open, but none can create their own open shot, and no good penetrators, so they depend upon screens off the ball. Until they develop an offensive threat on the inside which forces other teams to double down, they can be shut down on the perimeter by an athletic team. "[/I]


That is the koolaid I have been drinking. Punish them for not having a true PG.

gamagin
12-17-2009, 09:45 AM
interesting stuff.

however, much as I admire you, I take issue with your assessment, not your friend's.

<<. . . in response to mine which put the odds of the Zags winning at 25&#37;. This is what I felt was a realistic probability that our boys would win in MSG with a long road trip, jet lag, finals hang over, the difference in coaching, and the DIF (Duke Intimidation Factor). >>

this gap has diminished over the years and need not come out as an excuse for losing. have you ever flown jet charter ? It doesn't really tax you like commercial, layovers, etc etc. YOu can even dip down somewhere midway and have lunch, refuel, etc., the equivalent of taking a break for lunch. It's a far cry from the usual airline travel. Otherwise, it's a straight shot above the commercial airspace; these guys are carrying every imaginable entertainment game and play cards and generally don't have to shclep their bags except to and from the plane. They can sleep if they like. the finals are over by Friday. The workout schedule has been lightened for finals week. "The difference in coaching" is access to better athletes, generally. I don't see how that fits anymore, either. Few is in the top 5 of winningest coaches ever. That also includes coach K. Few isn't kneeling at the master's feet. He's pushing him for his record all the way from Spokane, WA.

I'm more worried about us playing our game than them playing theirs. If we play ours, we've shown we can play against anyone. Thanks to your friend, their is no real mystique about this years Duke team, either. They are just kids, too, working on their games and hitting bumps just like us.

So if hitting fewer bumps constitutes us being inferior to Duke and their coach and the vaunted MSG, well, I don't buy it. I do buy that we need to play better, longer, to beat them.

I don't buy that we're handicapped coming in. We're not. Not if we decide we're not.

Go TEAM Zags !

rijman
12-17-2009, 09:52 AM
Thanks for the email, which makes a good point. From the Zags side this appears to be a tough game, but if you look at it from Duke's side it appears to be a tough game for them as well. The Zags are one of the top teams in the nation in free throw attempts, so they will take it to the hoop, and can shoot from outside. The Zags are a tough athletic team that would concern ANY opponent, imho.

kitzbuel
12-17-2009, 10:57 AM
One more thing for Duke to be worried about: Snowstorm Threatens Shoppers from Salem, N.C. to New York City (http://www.accuweather.com/regional-news-story.asp?region=eastusnews)

The first of a couple of good sized snowstorms are coming through the Mid Atlantic this weekend.

siliconzag
12-17-2009, 11:19 AM
however, much as I admire you, I take issue with your assessment, not your friend's.

"More wicked than a serpent's tooth an ungrateful (buddy) child"

King Lear

I enjoyed your rejoiner, old pal. After I read my colleague's assessment, I agree that the Zags have a decent shot. If we use a "match up zone" we are toast. We need an agressive switching man to man. And we need to exploit the fact that they are not quick off the dribble. I think Goodson needs to create lots of turnovers and steals. I think the game is mostly even. We might even have a shot at outrebounding them. I think it may come down to coaching and officiating. I think their bench is deeper than ours. We shall see, old friend.

Sili

Akzag
12-17-2009, 12:22 PM
My read ... you were trying to get 4-1 odds, and he says, no, straight up even bet.

adoptedzag
12-17-2009, 01:30 PM
My read ... you were trying to get 4-1 odds, and he says, no, straight up even bet.

LOL:lmao:

Ezag
12-17-2009, 01:36 PM
Believe me, there is no Duke intimidation factor on this team

FieldHouseFishHouse
12-17-2009, 02:02 PM
My read ... you were trying to get 4-1 odds, and he says, no, straight up even bet.

I think a 25% chance of winning is 3:1 odds. It's funny, if you told me LMU or Pepperdine had a 25% chance of beating us I would say that is a pretty favorable situation for the underdog.

dim4sum
12-17-2009, 02:42 PM
I worry when I hear that the guards can shoot the lights out, because inspite of the great record that Few has chalked up, he's never been able to figure out the magic formula for defending the three.

siliconzag
12-17-2009, 02:52 PM
I do occasionally make wagers with colleagues, but not this time. There is a tradition, among Doctors at least for you not to ask for odds when making bets. It is an honor thing. For instance I didn't ask for odds when I bet on us against Stanford in the Pete Newell and lost twice. Nor did I ask for them against UCLA when we lost in the same arena. I just bet straight up, and lost all 3. Asking for points is just plain smarmy. I understand that some of you chaps might have no compunction whatsoever about asking for odds or points from colleagues, but there is such a thing as honor, which is why I very infrequently bet on the Zags anymore. I lost big on the U Conn game last year. I still haven't settled, but it is costing me dinner at Reddington's in Yountville. None of the money I've lost hurts as much as my heart however.

I believe I am finallky over my Zag addiction. I don't plan to bet on them anymore. But I was wondering what you chaps thought about a poem on les Diables Bleus.

Sili

El Voce
12-17-2009, 03:00 PM
Sili - The Voice thinks a poem would be a wonderful thing!!!



I do occasionally make wagers with colleagues, but not this time. There is a tradition, among Doctors at least for you not to ask for odds when making bets. It is an honor thing. For instance I didn't ask for odds when I bet on us against Stanford in the Pete Newell and lost twice. Nor did I ask for them against UCLA when we lost in the same arena. I just bet straight up, and lost all 3. Asking for points is just plain smarmy. I understand that some of you chaps might have no compunction whatsoever about asking for odds or points from colleagues, but there is such a thing as honor, which is why I very infrequently bet on the Zags anymore. I lost big on the U Conn game last year. I still haven't settled, but it is costing me dinner at Reddington's in Yountville. None of the money I've lost hurts as much as my heart however.

I believe I am finallky over my Zag addiction. I don't plan to bet on them anymore. But I was wondering what you chaps thought about a poem on les Diables Bleus.

Sili

Timeout!
12-17-2009, 03:05 PM
I worry when I hear that the guards can shoot the lights out, because inspite of the great record that Few has chalked up, he's never been able to figure out the magic formula for defending the three.

If we inexplicable play zone more than we play man-2-man vs Duke, I'll probably freak out. We have the personel to man up Duke and their ability to penetrate and finish at the rim is below average. We can match-up and extend our defense this game--nothing to lose. If we play zone against the Dukies, they'll have a hay day knocking down open 3's. Scheyer, Singler, and Dawkins will bury us. I'm not saying I'm an expert by any means, but I know we MUST play in your face defense against their unbelievable jump shooters(they shoot 42% from 3pt as a team and have one of the best, if not the best kick-out, mid-range games in College hoops.) Also, Their screens along the perimeter are perfomed with perfection. Our guards will need to amp up the toughness, fight through screens, and communicate switches like their lives depend on it. We'll have little issues defending their post play, its up to the Guards(Gray, Bouldin, Manny, Meech) to stop their trio of shooters.

Reborn
12-17-2009, 03:06 PM
But I was wondering what you chaps thought about a poem on les Diables Bleus. Sili

I'm glad you asked, Sili. A poem is definitely in order. I think a Sili poem always increases the chances for a Zag victory, and definitely more than a wager made in favor of the Zags would. Please Sili. Do it!!!

GoZags
12-17-2009, 03:34 PM
I'm glad you asked, Sili. A poem is definitely in order. I think a Sili poem always increases the chances for a Zag victory, and definitely more than a wager made in favor of the Zags would. Please Sili. Do it!!!

NO

siliconzag
12-17-2009, 04:10 PM
You hurt me more than words can express. I am now torn, and have a true dilemma. Should I disappoint Reno Zag and El Voce or your noble self? I am so, like, conflicted. What to do. What to do.

El Voce
12-17-2009, 06:20 PM
Listen to The Voice! A Muse should never - and I mean never - be silenced.


You hurt me more than words can express. I am now torn, and have a true dilemma. Should I disappoint Reno Zag and El Voce or your noble self? I am so, like, conflicted. What to do. What to do.

RenoZag
12-17-2009, 06:25 PM
Aw, go on. . .rhyme a little
We won't quibble.

MickMick
12-17-2009, 06:59 PM
Are they quick enough to get in front of Goodson? Conversely, will Goodson be under control once he gets past them?

I agree 100&#37; with the earlier call for a switching man to man defense. Zags need to body up on those guards.

Honestly, I see a replay of Davidson (only much more evenly matched as Duke is taller and more athletic....ie. closer score). Duke will shoot well by getting open from screens, but they will be seriously challenged by dribble penetration and the interior play from Elias Harris.

This game boils down to fouls called. The team that makes (not just attempts) the most free throws will win. If Harris fouls out, Zags are in deep trouble. I would consider sitting him after his first foul for a few minutes.

I expect a high scoring affair.

gamagin
12-17-2009, 07:43 PM
You hurt me more than words can express. I am now torn, and have a true dilemma. Should I disappoint Reno Zag and El Voce or your noble self? I am so, like, conflicted. What to do. What to do.

this is christmas time
write something that does rhyme
don't let go zags sway you
give him the (blue) devil, too

for if you dawdle too long
I'm going to write about Kong
and when I'm done with Bol
Go Zags will probably Bawl

or not.

bigblahla
12-17-2009, 07:52 PM
inspite of the great record that Few has chalked up he's never been able to figure out the magic formula for defending the three.

Well, maybe not?

I think he knows the formula, he just has a hard time getting a focused 200 minutes from the ingredients. ;)

Go!! Zags!!!