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Zerogame
12-07-2009, 10:03 PM
66 Gonzaga WCC 6-2 .8427 106.8/95 92.3/65 16.5/94 -.029/199 .5818/118 104.5/53 101.6/240 .5818/133


Don't look now but,

11 St. Mary's WCC 6-1 .9661 117.1/13 87.5/21 18.1/136 -.049/230 .7557/26 107.6/16 97.5/83 .7557/40

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

zagsdan86
12-07-2009, 10:14 PM
If the teams switched schedules, those rankings would be a bit different. It's easy to pad your statistics for Pomeroy's efficiency rankings when you're playing Cal Poly and New Mexico State and playing all of your games at home.

alaskazagnut
12-08-2009, 12:43 AM
At least they have won all theirs at home this year. I don't like St.Marys but Pomeroy is still a decent index. In the last 10 years the Zags always seem to be high in this ranking and about 15-20 places lower in the RPI.

Once and Future Zag
12-08-2009, 07:31 AM
His efficiency numbers take into account the strength of opponents, so switching schedules wouldn't change anything.

titopoet
12-08-2009, 07:49 AM
His efficiency numbers take into account the strength of opponents, so switching schedules wouldn't change anything.

Kenpom is great system, but it usually better in Jan than early due to the math involved. Since it starts at zero for every team, the early season home blow outs some times skews the system. A blow out of no One Cares U counts more early than a close win over a quality opponent, since everyone starts the same. Later, as One Cares U continues to loss by large margins the win is less valuable. That is why you see large fluctuations, GU was in the 40s and Wake was in the 90s and now both are in the 60s, big moves for both. By 15 games, the sample is large enough that it becomes a great predictor, (that is when the site starts posting possible scores) It really not until 10 to 15 games into the season that it starts becoming more valuable.

CDC84
12-08-2009, 08:53 AM
I have to wonder how reliable those stats are at this early stage of the season. The Zags are 6 points away from being undefeated right now against what everyone knows is a brutal non-league sked. It's kind of like the RPI - you have to give it some time. The truth of the matter is that there haven't been enough games played yet to clearly demonstrate that Cincinnati, Wake Forest and Wisconsin are better than New Mexico State, Cal Poly and San Jose State.

Once and Future Zag
12-08-2009, 09:04 AM
Of course a larger sample size is going to be more accurate, just saying that the SOS is factored into the numbers - even though right now there's essentially an incomplete dataset.

And as CDC pointed out - right now it's subject to huge swings. By the end of the season the scheduling SOS will play out more precisely into the ratings.

77Zag
12-08-2009, 09:05 AM
At least they have won all theirs at home this year. I don't like St.Marys but Pomeroy is still a decent index. In the last 10 years the Zags always seem to be high in this ranking and about 15-20 places lower in the RPI.

St. Mary's dropped it's home game to Vandy on 11-20 by two --This was Vanderbilt's stop over on the way to Maui.

Then Vandy lost in first round to Cincinnati before taking down Chaminade and then Zona at the Invitational.

titopoet
12-08-2009, 09:06 AM
After I posted, this came out in the Dagger, http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/What-s-with-North-Carolina-s-weak-Pomeroy-Rating?urn=ncaab,207246 Ken Pomeroy said the same thing as I did. His answer was about a question about North Carolina being so low. (56) Glad my math classes did not go to waste.

77Zag
12-08-2009, 09:08 AM
I really like this site for rankings, lines and quick links to each teams outcomes

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/rankings/

lothar98zag
12-08-2009, 09:11 AM
His efficiency numbers take into account the strength of opponents, so switching schedules wouldn't change anything.
While this is true, personally I'd wait another month before really taking this (& the rpi) seriously. On the other hand, a lot of teams have played ~30% of their schedule, so the numbers aren't totally worthless...

...and congrats to SMC for playing as well as they have so far this season. I really hope they win their tourney in Hawaii.

CDC84
12-08-2009, 09:48 AM
Several analysts say that you shouldn't even take the RPI seriously until the beginning of February. Conference play needs to kick in for a month for the RPI to be a reliable thing.

alaskazagnut
12-08-2009, 01:01 PM
I forgot about the loss to Vandy. I even looked at their schedule prior to posting. (not good enough) I like KenPom cuz he will give you explanations of his formula. I can't believe how the WCC conference is dropping like a rock right now.