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CDC84
12-07-2009, 10:33 AM
http://www.sportingnews.com/college-basketball/article/2009-12-05/3-pointers-bench-scoring-overrated-statistic


Take a seat

In an average game, Gonzaga gets about 13 points from its reserves, and it has had a few below-average games in that department. Some in the media get pretty worked up about this issue.

What does it mean? Not a thing.

"Bench scoring" is one of those manufactured stats that the numbers wonks concocted to make it seem as though you're getting more insight into the game. You're not.

In the past 10 NCAA championship games, the team with the greater percentage of points coming from bench players won half the time, same as the team with the lesser percentage. The team with the greatest bench-scoring total won five, the lesser won four and the teams tied in bench points once.

If Bulldogs coach Mark Few wants to increase his "bench scoring," he could open the game with star Matt Bouldin sitting down. But what good would that do?

Gonzaga's reserves are mostly freshmen, and because the team plays an "inverted" schedule the majority of its most challenging games are early because it competes in the West Coast Conference it will take longer for them to get comfortable. With the team playing so well, however, there is no cause for concern.

sullyzag66
12-07-2009, 10:49 AM
http://www.sportingnews.com/college-basketball/article/2009-12-05/3-pointers-bench-scoring-overrated-statistic
Yep. Last time I checked, the team with the most points wins; doesn't matter who scored 'em.

However, Matt may need some rest as the season progresses.

CDC84
12-07-2009, 10:55 AM
There's another problem with bench scoring. Suppose your starting small forward is offensively challenged but is the absolute best wing defender in the nation. He gets hurt in a game and has to sit. His sub comes in and scores 15 points but can't defend anyone. The bench scoring looks great but if the opposing wing puts up 38, what's the point?

Gonzaga had 25 bench points on Saturday. I have to believe that was a season's best. They still lost to Wake Forest. As much as I think the bench scoring of Arop and Kong was a positive development, the Zags beat Wake with Elias, even if Harris only scores 10 points.


However, Matt may need some rest as the season progresses.

Totally agree, but as MD says, Gonzaga is playing an inverted schedule. The BCS schools get to stay at home and play Grambling State, NJIT, Coastal Carolina, Florida A&M and Radford to get their freshmen up to speed.

Zag4Hire
12-07-2009, 11:05 AM
Depends on your rotation and roster depth. The relevance of bench scoring seems to discredited based on most substitutions made by coaches. It's not like hockey. A coach seldom (except on a senior night or blow out) makes wholesale changes where the entire bench comes in for the starters. If you bring in two guys off the bench, they usually defer to the starters for points. Also, like previously mentioned, someone like Will comes in to create hesitation amongst the opponent's guards about taking it to the hoop but not necessarily take a ton of shots.

MickMick
12-07-2009, 05:02 PM
CDC nails it again.

Lately, I rarely find any commentary from him that I have disagreed with.

roxdoc
12-08-2009, 07:06 AM
In my mind it isn't the number of points a bench player(s) makes, its the fact that they can and do score when they come in. That they are not just filling a hole in the rotation while the starter has a blow. We are just beginning to see Manny and Kong make a scoring impact and not just be a player to round out the roster when they are in. I fully expect Kelly to improve in this regard. If these guys have to be pressed into service for whatever reason the beauty is that our offense will continue just fine. Its something that statistics do not measure.

TheMorrisonIsBack
12-08-2009, 08:03 AM
However, Matt may need some rest as the season progresses.

He's young and in really good shape.. He should be fine getting these kind of minutes early. He'll get rest in WCC play I assume... Stars in the NBA are playing over 40 minutes a game, Bouldin should be able to handle 38.

zag944
12-08-2009, 08:15 AM
umm, Im guessing Few just wants the players off the bench to score more with the oppurtunities that they have on the court. This is a perfectly reasonable concept.

Obviously he isnt going to sit star players that have something in the tank just to get more points off the bench...

ronh_pm
12-08-2009, 08:15 AM
I have always maintained that you do not count on your bench to win you a game, you count on them not to lose you a game.

All else being equal, if the others team bench scores 1 point and your bench does not score, bench scoring is not over rated at all. It determined the outcome of the game.

gamagin
12-08-2009, 08:16 AM
In my mind it isn't the number of points a bench player(s) makes, its the fact that they can and do score when they come in. That they are not just filling a hole in the rotation while the starter has a blow. We are just beginning to see Manny and Kong make a scoring impact and not just be a player to round out the roster when they are in. I fully expect Kelly to improve in this regard. If these guys have to be pressed into service for whatever reason the beauty is that our offense will continue just fine. Its something that statistics do not measure.

exactly.

yet another reason why statistics are mostly for people who can't seem to get their brains around the human factors that are constantly in play. The real ebb and flow and game unfolding before their eyes.

Like being tired & needing a quick blow; needing to re focus or focus; nurse a stinger; get over a bad call; re load; re think a strategy; stand back and see what's really going on on the floor; substituting a taller guy who better matches up in one occasion but not all. etc etc etc etc.

Nope. Just count the substitutions, divide by the rotation of the earth; add a false premise, throw in one of a hundred factors that may or may not apply but help with the conclusion, and conclude.

I'd be willing to bet the reason someone is on the bench is he got beat out by the guy in the game playing his position. It doesn't mean he can't contribute (see possibilities above or make up your own).

And whatever the bench can do to address one or more of the hundreds of circumstances seen in a game realy helps, is needed and necessary.

I'm willing to go out on a limb and add that I believe statistics would bear me out on this: we need a good bench; we are using it and from all indications, it is serving its multiple purposes.

Go TEAM & bench Zags !

webspinnre
12-08-2009, 12:19 PM
You know what isn't an overrated statistic? Point differential. 100% of teams who are leading in this statistic win. Quite amazing.

CDC84
12-08-2009, 01:00 PM
You know what isn't an overrated statistic? Point differential. 100% of teams who are leading in this statistic win. Quite amazing.

Which is why I avoid the Sagarin ratings, which factor in margin of victory. As I always like to say, it takes 6 one point victories to win the NCAA tournament. Too many things go into point differential that have nothing to do with the quality of your team. Scheduling, the pace at which you play at, etc. - all things that go into margin of victory.